Division of Science Resources StatisticsSkilled Migrants in a (Human) Networked World:Beyond Brain Drain and Neuro-mercantilism

RESEARCH TRENDS SEMINAR:Research Mobility & Brain Circulation: Scientific and

Economic ImpactsWashington, DCOctober 9, 2012

Mark RegetsNational Science Foundation: Arlington

(Affiliation for biographical purposes only)mregets@nsf.edu

Brain drain:

The idea that a geographic political unit is harmed when highly educated workers leave.

Neuro-mercantilism:

The idea that a geographic political unit benefits when highly educated workers move there. (a pejorative used to link the idea to the economic theory that doomed empires)

Some important considerations in thinking about the effects of high-skilled migration:• Understanding changes in the way both university and industry R&D is done is key to understanding both the migrations and their effects.

• While it is useful to analyze national economic effects, ethical issues can arise from a too narrow accounting of benefits and costs. Much of the gain to migration accrues to the migrant (in terms of both economics and human liberty).

•Many of the effects are global, and not specific to the receiving and sending country.

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National Science FoundationDivision of Science Resources Statistics

Changes in how S&T is done:

1. Global capacity for science and technology growing rapidly in most part of the world.a) Research much less centralized,

U.S. now about 1/3 of world R&D

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

Rest of World

USA

Number of Postsecondary (Tertiary) degree holders: 1950-2010

Derived from Barro-Lee estimates of education attainment, 9/4/2011 data release

Postsecondary education has increased in all regions, leaving no area with a share of educated workers comparable to the 42% for the U.S. in 1950

United States18%

Other Ad-vanced

Economies22%

East Asia/Pacific

23%

Eastern Eu-rope/Central

Asia13%

Latin America and Caribbean

8%

Middle East and North

Africa5%

South Asia10%

Sub-Saharan Africa1%

2010 Tertiary Degree Holders: >350 million

Derived from Barro-Lee estimates of education attainment, 9/4/2011 data release

ChinaSingapore

BelgiumAustria

GermanyGreece

SwitzerlandSpain

United StatesPortugal

FranceSouth Korea

JapanIreland

United KingdomSwedenNorway

ItalyNetherlands

DenmarkFinlandTaiwan

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1975 1990

2005

Ratio of first university degrees granted to 1/5 of population aged 20-24

The proportion of population earning degrees has increased almost everywhere, including other developed countries.

(First University Degrees issued to 20-24 year old population)

Science and engineering degrees have also increased:(First Natural S&E University Degrees issued to 20-24 year old

population)

ChinaBelgium

United StatesAustria

SwitzerlandGreece

NorwayGermany

IrelandNetherlands

JapanSpain

DenmarkFrance

PortugalUnited Kingdom

SingaporeItaly

SwedenSouth Korea

FinlandTaiwan

0 5 10 15 20 25

1975 1990

2005

Ratio of S&E first university diplomas granted to 1/5 population aged 20-24

All fields

Biological s

cience

s

Chemistry

Computer s

cience

s

Engineering

Geoscience

s

Math

ematics

Medica

l scie

nces

Physics

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

US Share of Top 1% of Cited Articles in Science Cita-tion Index: 1998, 2008 1998

2008

Perc

ent

All Patents Biotechnology Information and Computer Technology

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

U.S. Share of WIPO Patent: 1992, 20071992

2007

Perc

ent

12

National Science FoundationDivision of Science Resources Statistics

Changes in how S&T is done:

2. More S&T activity of all types is done across bordersa. Teams and collaborations physically

located in multiple countriesb. Large increases in the migration of

researchers and other highly skilled workers

R&D Employment by U.S. Multinational Corporations Abroad and by Foreign MNC Affiliates in the United

States

1994 1999 2004 20090

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

U.S. MNCs abroad

Foreign MNCs in United States

Source: Science and Engineering Indicators 2012

ENGLISH AS A COMMON LANGUAGE

• In several countries, the government funding agencies will not accept research proposals in the country’s native language.

• Many graduate programs are taught in English so that:– Its graduates are not isolated.– It can recruit students with other native languages.

• English is the work language both at many government funded research institutes and at commercial R&D sites.

Country of enrollment for foreign students in tertiary education: 2001 and 2008

SOURCE: IIE Atlas of Student Mobility

10 year growth rate in number of foreign students in higher education: 1998-2007

Turkey

Slovak Republic

United States

Germany

Austria

Portugal

France

Switzerland

Denmark

Spain

United Kingdom

Australia

Hungary

Finland

Poland

Ireland

Italy

Norway

Netherlands

Sweden

Japan

Canada

Iceland

Czech Republic

New Zealand

Korea

3%

26%

38%

51%

53%

61%

67%

69%

89%

106%

120%

123%

128%

132%

139%

143%

147%

170%

176%

240%

253%

302%

304%

501%

999%

1159%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Skilled laborersIntracompany transfereesEngineersInstructorsResearchersProfessors

Entries into Japan of workers with a type of temporary work visa associated with high skills

Source: Japan Statistical Handbook

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Trends in the percent foreign-born in science and engineering occupation in the U.S.: 1990-2004

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

All collegeeducated

Bachelor’s Master’s Doctorate

1990 Census

2000 Census

2004 Census ACS

Number in U.S.

Percent of Foreign-Born with Same Education Level

All Degree Levels 311,700 8.7Bachelor's Degree 135,100 5.8Master's Degree 96,200 11.7Professional Degrees 34,900 15.0Doctorate 45,600 22.2

U.S. Resident Foreign-Born Individuals With Degrees From Third Countries: 1993

Source: NSF/Science Resources Statistics 1993 SESTAT data and 1993 National Survey of College Graduates

(Other than U.S. or Country of Birth)

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National Science FoundationDivision of Science Resources Statistics

Multiple Node Knowledge Network

• Increased and more complex flows of students, workers, and finances

• Increased regional S&T collaboration and links between regions

• Global and regional labor markets for some skills• Increased importance of individuals with high

“betweenness”—those connecting the nodes

Dominant Country:• Country doing most R&D is connected to most information flows.• Some regional activity, but greater collaboration with dominant country.• Very limited collaboration across regions, except in collaborations that include dominant country.

Central Node:Dominant Country

Two hypothetical cross-national knowledge networks NOT based on actual countries or data:

(Size of circle related to size of R&D. Width of lines related to size of knowledge flows)

Geographically dispersed R&D capabilities:• Country with the most R&D may still be the one best connected to other R&D, but there is much activity to which it has no connection.•Growth of knowledge flows and collaborations within and between regions.

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Sending Countries: Possible Negatives

• “Brain drain”: lost productive capacity due to at least temporary absence of workers and students with higher skills

• Less support for public funding of higher education

Pre-1980

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 19980.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

All degreesDoctorateMaster'sBachelor's

Year of entry to the United States

Perc

ent w

ith h

igh

degr

ee fr

om fo

reig

n sc

hool

Source: NSF/SRS SESTAT 2003

Percent of foreign-born S&E degree holders with highest degree from foreign institution: 2003

B.S. or higher

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1980 1990 2000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1980 1990 2000

Foreign-born

U.S.-born

Ph.D.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1990 2000

Employment in S&E occupations by nativity and level of degree

Source: Lowell/Regets tabulations of 1980-2000 Census PUMS

Rapid increases in foreign-born scientists and engineers has not prevented rapid growth in numbers of U.S.-born

26

Receiving Countries: Possible Negatives

• Decreased incentive of natives to seek higher skills

• Possibility of displacement of native students from best schools

• Language and cultural barriers between native and immigrant highly skilled workers

• Technology transfers to competitors and to possibly hostile countries

27

Fixed-effects model estimates of the change in U.S. native S&E graduate enrollment associated with changes in graduate temporary-visa foreign student enrollment

An increase of one fulltime foreign student in a S&E graduate department is associated with:

+ 0.02 fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. minority

+ 0.33 fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. white

- 0.07 full time U.S. citizen/perm. Asian

Model: Departmental level fixed effects controlling for department size in the previous period, dummy variables for year, and changes in the enrollment of other groups.

Data: NSF Graduate Student Survey, 1982-1995

28

Many U.S. citizen grad students are in departments dependent upon foreign students

SOURCE: NSF/SRS Survey of Graduate Students and Postdocs (GSS) 2005

29

Receiving Countries: Possible Positives

• Increased R&D and economic activity due to availability of additional highly skilled workers and students.

• Knowledge flows and collaboration. • Increased ties to foreign research institutions.• Export opportunities for technology.• Increased enrollment in graduate programs,

possibly keeping smaller programs alive.

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Sending Countries: Possible Positives

• Increased incentive for natives to seek higher skills• Possibility of exporting skills, which reduces risk and raises expected

return of personal education investments• Increase in domestic economic return to skills• Knowledge flows and collaboration• Increased ties to foreign research institutions• Export opportunities for technology• Return of natives with foreign education and human capital• Remittances and other support from diaspora networks

Possibility of migration increases incentive to invest in human capital even for those who stay

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E(H) = Pm Ef(H) + (1 – Pm) Ed(H)where :

Pm is the subjective individual probability of migration

Ef is the expected value of human capital H in the foreign labor market

Ed is the expected value of the same human capital in the domestic labor market

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National Science FoundationDivision of Science Resources Statistics

SOURCES: Thomson ISI, Science Citation Index and Social Sciences Citation Index, http://www.isinet.com/products/citation/; ipIQ, Inc.; National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Statistics, Survey of Earned Doctorates (1994–98), special tabulations; and National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators, 2006.

Relationship of foreign-born U.S. S&E doctorate recipients to their country's scientific collaboration with United States: 1994–98

graduates and 1999–2003 articles

-2.000

-1.000

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500

Coauthored articles 1999–2003 (log)

Foreign-born U.S. doctorate holders 1994–98 (log)

Correlation = +0 .66

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The U.S. does not have many college educated citizens abroad:

Top 11 countries with citizens with at least a tertiary-level education residing abroad in other OECD countries (2000)

Source: Docquier and Marfouk, International Migration by Educational Attainment (1990-2000), World Bank

33

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Possible Global Effects• Better international flow of knowledge between centers of

innovation.• Better job matches through global job searches conducted

by both workers and employers. The best person for a job sometimes has a rare combination of skill sets

• Increased productivity of research: “Where can I do the best work?” is at least one question considered by a potential migrant.

• Net positive effect on incentives for individual human capital investments as a result of international competition for scarce human capital.