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MODULE 11:MODULE 11:

ASSESSING THE FUTUREASSESSING THE FUTURE

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IntroductionIntroduction

  This module is designed to address future environmental assessment. It helps readers to develop:

A good understanding of how present environmental policy can be linked to the future

Information on why futuristic environmental policy studies are conducted

Knowledge on the importance of emerging issues in understanding future environmental assessment studies

Some skills in scenario development for environmental assessment

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Paths to “the future”Paths to “the future”

Current policies have an important influence on how the future environment will turn out to be.

Analyses of present actions and policies may be linked to potential environmental paths

We can compare the various paths and, within our limitations, consciously select one with informed consent about the risks being taken, and the opportunities it will present for the future of our environment

Our real chosen path may be different from our most preferred path due to various limitations, e.g. finance, available technology and skills, the necessity to create jobs, etc.

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The context of “the future” in IEAThe context of “the future” in IEA

Within the context of IEA, we assess the future when: We understand the state of the

current environment, the pressures on it and the effectiveness of the existing policies

We know its history and why it has taken the current trend

We understand the current dangers it is facing now and have a vague idea that it might deteriorate further

Within this context, we ask questions 4 and 5 on the next slide.

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The context of “the future”… (cont’d)The context of “the future”… (cont’d)

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In trying to answer this In trying to answer this question:question:

 Other implied questions must also be answered about what we know and what we want to do Where are our current policies taking us? Is this where we want to go? What other policies could be more useful? What consequences might various policy

alternatives have on the environment in future?

These questions alert the decision making process to the advantages and dangers of selecting certain paths in future policy formulation.

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Reasons for conducting futuristic Reasons for conducting futuristic environmental policy studiesenvironmental policy studies

To be aware of the consequences of present actions and policies on the environment in future

To detect and avoid the dangers that could happen in future

To develop proactive strategies that can be used to avoid future catastrophes

To develop a yardstick for a desired future environment against which we can measure our performance in advancing preferred alternatives

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Emerging issuesEmerging issues

Issues whose future potential impact may not currently be realized by the public or decision makers but may be vaguely speculated upon by a few scientists, e.g. the socioeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS

Speculation is beyond current policy actions. It is uncertain and labour-intensive.

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Some recent emerging issues with Some recent emerging issues with impact on the environmentimpact on the environment

Global warming – not clearly comprehended in 1990’s but its impact widely accepted now.

Long range transport of atmospheric pollutants – hotly debated by a few scientists in the 1960’s. Its extent and impact have been studied successfully using remotely sensed information.

New technologies in agricultural production which culminated in the Green Revolution (1970’s).

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Building scenariosBuilding scenarios

Developing possible future environmental trajectories on issues of interest is very uncertain 

Can limit alternative paths to a few but this may have tragic consequences if the analysis is inaccurate

May include all possible occurrences and hope to adjust as environmental issues develop (i.e. the scenario approach)

Conceptually, we may develop a funnel increasing in diameter with time and with less likely extreme scenarios on the edge of the funnel.

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Centre gives most likely scenarios but disruptive events Centre gives most likely scenarios but disruptive events may have influence on the range of possible scenariosmay have influence on the range of possible scenarios

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Emerging issues must be included Emerging issues must be included in the development of scenarios as in the development of scenarios as theythey::

raise issues of concern for the general public and increase participation in formulating policy on the issues,

encourage preliminary discussion for formulating policy on issues before they become crises, and

guide environmental research and data collection on the issues at an early stage.

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Some significant forces driving Some significant forces driving scenarios in Africascenarios in Africa

Rapidly increasing populationDesire for economic diversification from

dependence on natural resources Improving social levels of human

development with good stable family incomes

Effective integration of Africa’s diverse cultures

Effective integration of appropriate technology in the development process

Sustainable management practices to mitigate environmental degradation

Increased local participation, improved governance, and cooperation beyond national borders

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Scenarios? Why not use trend analysis Scenarios? Why not use trend analysis or mathematical modelling ?or mathematical modelling ?

Trend analysis and mathematical modelling are not sufficient for analyzing long range (e.g. decades, generations) future environmental events because: There is always insufficient information to

adjust policies for forces that govern environmental system dynamics over long periods

The environmental system, when linked to socioeconomic systems, becomes extremely complex with potentials for turbulent behavioural changes

The future depends on human choices that are unknowable. Future human choices may be made completely outside what may be considered currently feasible or acceptable

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General scenario dynamics of an General scenario dynamics of an environmental systemenvironmental system

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The current state of the environment results from a history of previous states which have experienced different pressures

Looking at the history gives us some idea of how difficult to develop future trajectories with any certainty: important forces may have changed the system dramatically from what might have been expected

Current driving forces and pressures condition the path of the future but that future state is unpredictable.

Surprising and extreme occurrences may change the path of development

General scenario dynamics… (cont’d)General scenario dynamics… (cont’d)

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Important steps in developing a scenarioImportant steps in developing a scenario

Specify the boundary of the analysis (spatially, thematically and temporally)

Describe the current conditionsEstimate the consequences of the

current situation on the issue of interest

Provide a narrative of the development of the selected paths of the scenarios

Estimate the change for each optionGive an image of the future with

conclusions about the range of possible outcomes at point(s) in time

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Assessing policy options and scenariosAssessing policy options and scenarios

There are always many possible alternative frameworks but each must reduce possible options to a manageable number: Qualitative narratives have the advantage

of expressing many unquantifiable variables of scenarios in qualitative terms (e.g. culture, values, behaviour). Disadvantage: lack of scientific rigour

Quantitative models provide rigour but may be misinterpreted to mean scientific precision

Most useful scenarios combine qualitative narrative and quantitative modelling.