Dissertation - up to Results

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³Is the political agenda more important than the science itself

when it comes to reporting on the topic of global warming?´

CANDIDATE NUMBER: 0011017

Turnitin ID: 5470332



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Contents

1. Introduction««««««««««««««««««««««««««...8

1.1 Definitions«««««««««««««««««««««.8

1.2 Science Overview««««««««««««««««««..8

1.3 Global Warming and Mass Media««««««««««««.8

1.4 Aims«««««««««««««««««««««««.10

1.5 Chapter Outline«««««««««««««««««««10

2. Climate Science«««««««««««««««««««««««««11

2.1 Dating Techniques and Past Climates««««««««««..11

2.2 Timescales of Climate Change«««««««««««««.13

2.3 Climate Change Over the Last 20ka«««««««..«««...15

2.4 Bond, Dansgaar-Oeschger and Heinrich«««««««..««15

2.5 Thermohaline Circulation«««««««..«««««««...16

2.6 Contemporary Global Warming«««««««..«««««.16

3. Theoretical Background«««««««««««««««««««««...17

3.1 The Global Warming Debate Thus Far««««««««««17

3.2 News Media Coverage and Global Warming«««««««...22

4. Methodology«««««««««««««««............................................24

4.1 Time Frame, US/UK Newspaper Consideration and

Lexis Nexis««««««««««««««««««««...24

4.2.1 Sample Size and Analytical Methods««««««««««...24

4.2.2 Accuracy of Science«««««««««««««««««.25

4.2.3 Scientific vs. Political Themes«««««««««««««.25

4.2.4 High Profile Figure Linkages«««««««««««««...26

4.2.5 Ruddiman Hypothesis Investigation«««««««««««26

5. Results««««««««««««««««««««««««««««..27

5.1 Anthropogenic Debate and Talks for Action«««««««...27

5.2 Level of Scientific Accuracy«««««««««««««....29



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5.3 Policy Dominates Science in Reporting on Global Warming and

Climate Change«««««««««««««««««««30

5.4.1 Scientists Voices go Unheard«««««««««««««...32

5.4.2 Ruddiman Ineffectively Propagated«««««««««««.35

5.5 Results Summary««««««««««««««««««..35

6. Discussion«««««««««««««««««««««««««««36

6.1 Interpretation of Results«««««««««««««««...36

6.2 Wider Discussion««««««««««««««««««.38

6.3 Limitations««««««««««««««««««««...39

7. Conclusion«««««««««««««««««««««««««««40

Bibliography«««««««««««««««««««««««««««««.41

Appendix«.«««««««««««««««««««««««««««««.52

List of Figures

Figure 1: The role oxygen isotopes play in ice cores. During a glacial period, the

heavier oxygen isotope is less easily evaporated and more readily precipitated than the

lighter oxygen isotope. This leads to a build up of the lighter oxygen isotope on land and

leaves the oceans relatively enriched with the heavier oxygen isotope.

Figure 2: The Natural Carbon Dioxide Cycle

Figure 3: Model reconstructions of global temperature anomalies (departures from an

arbitrary temperature of 14.4C) due to solar forcing alone, and their combination.

Observed global average temperature departures from the 1951-1980 average are also

shown (Nicholls et al., 1996..cited in Reid, 1997).

Figure 4: The Keeling Curve

Figure 5: Analytical content results for UK and US articles: Question 1



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Figure 6: Analytical content results for UK and US articles: Question 2

Figure 7: Scientific vs. political themes results for US and UK broadsheets

Figure 8: Scientific vs. political themes results for H ouston Chronicle and Metro (UK)

Figure 9: The background of high profile figures linked to the articles studied in UK

and US broadsheets

Figure 10: The background of high profile figures linked to the articles studied in UK

Metro and The Houston Chronicle

List of Tables

Table 1: The main recurring themes categorised into µPolitical¶ and µScientific¶ columns

based on the definition of the theme and the nature of the article.

Table 2: The nature of high profile figures linked to the articles studied.

Acknowledgements«««««««««««««««««««««««««««5

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms««««««««««««««««««««.6

Abstract«««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««..7



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I would like to thank my supervisors for all their input and all the friends

and family who helped proofreading this dissertation



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List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

IPCC: International Panel on Climate Change

USA: United States of America

U.S: United States

U.K : United Kingdom

GRIP: Greenland Ice Core Project

GISP: Greenland Ice Sheet Project

MIS: Marine Isotope Stage

ENSO: El Nino Southern Oscillation

NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation

LIA: Little Ice Age

THC: Thermohaline Circulation

NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

UN: United Nations

CFC: Chlorofluorocarbon

GCC: Global Climate Coalition



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Abstract

This dissertation looks into whether the political agenda is more important than the

scientific agenda when it comes to reporting on global warming, focusing on 8

(primarily) broadsheet papers from Britain and America, with equal attention being

given to each nation, between 1988-2009. Global warming is an issue that requires

accurate reporting, as the media has been identified as the prime information source for

the public and policy makers on global warming affairs. False reporting can have

detrimental impacts as it can lead to miss-shaped views on climate change and can delay

policy action. This paper aims to determine the extent to which politics prevails over

science, when reporting on climate change and at what cost. A sample consisting of 100

articles was collected and a range of investigative methods was then applied, including :

analytical content measures, accuracy of science, themes, high profile figure links and a

case-study following a particular climate hypothesis. The results exposed a dominant

input of politics with a diminutive scientific contribution: the reasons for which are

likely to be attributable to the nature of reporting and the extent of scientific

understanding amongst the general public.



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1.0 Introduction

1.1 Definitions

Global Warming1: µthe gradual increase in the overall temperature of the earth¶s

atmosphere due to the greenhouse effect caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide,

CFC¶s and other pollutants¶ (Oxford English Dictionary, 2008).

1.2 Science Overview

In 1976, scientists started hypothesising the prospect of a warming planet. Up until this

point many of the world¶s leading climatologists thought the Earth was headed towards

an ice age and temperatures were set to continue plummeting. However, the record

summer temperatures of 1976 changed this, and global warming was now on

climatologist¶s agenda. The anthropogenic link to global warming was hard for many

governments to acknowledge, due to the link with western society¶s economies and

lifestyles, which therefore led to climate sceptics challenging the issue and a consequent

delay in policy enforcement on the issue.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in their most recent report, in

2007, that ³warming of the climate system is unequivocal´ and ³most of the observed

increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th

century is very likely

(>90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations´.

Global warming is therefore a contemporary issue that requires more than attention, but

rapid unprecedented action from all nations.

1.3 Global Warming and Mass Media

In the last twenty years, since the end of the Cold War, µlow political issues¶, such as

global warming, have come to national government¶s agendas. Public knowledge of

climate change has also been influenced by recent films; µThe Day after Tomorrow¶

(2004), µAn Inconvenient Truth¶ (2006) by ex-presidential candidate Al Gore and µThe

1 The press often substitutes global warming and climate change to mean the same thing.



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age of Stupid¶ (2008). As well as television documentaries, dramatisations and radio

commentaries; lay perception of a modern climate change is heavily influenced by the

global press.

A problematic issue surrounding science journalism is the translation of expert

knowledge to lay thinking. ³µScience¶ is an encoded form of knowledge that requires

translation in order to be understood´ (Ungar, 2000; 308). From preliminary research

into the media reporting of climate science, it is clear that the media don¶t always report

science accurately. This could be due to a lack of understanding from the journalist,

particular methods of framing; focusing on political or human-interest angles, or

tailoring reports to a particular readership¶s interests and knowledge.

Inaccurate science reporting can lead to misunderstanding within a public imagination as

³it is primarily through the media that climate change is publicly represented (Wilson,

1995: Wilson 2000a: Wilson 2000b) in this sense, media construct climate change as a

social problem´ (Antilla, 2005; 2).

A further possible cause for misreporting climate science is that the media is heavily

influenced by politics and although both the U.S and the U.K are democratic states,

where the media is not policed, there is still a certain amount of government influence;

³While media have tremendous potential to inform citizens about events and issues in

their world, they also have unparalleled potential for abuse by political partisans and

commercial interests´ (Croteau, 2000: 99).

Additionally, if the media portrays global warming in a way that suggests confusion

within the scientific community, then the general public will be lead to believe that there

is still substantial doubt over whether global warming is occurring. Orekes (2004: 338)

looked at this issue in America and found: ³One problematic trend of the US media has

been the suggestion that substantive disagreement exists within the international

scientific community as to the reality of anthropogenic climate change: however, this

concept is false´.

In my view, it will not be until the public feels the science is conclusive that global

warming is occurring, will enough pressure be put on politicians to act. In March, 2001,



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George W. Bush publicly announced, that the USA intended to reject the Kyoto Protocol

as it ³exempts developing nations from around the world, and it is not in the United

States¶ economic best interest´ (Fleischer, 2000...cited in Boykoff & Boykoff, 2007).

Although this move prompted unilateral international opposition, he faced less hostility

at home, perhaps because of the on-going debates within public spheres that global

warming even existed.

1.4 Aims

This dissertation analyses whether the newspaper media reporting of climate change is

predominantly framed within a more political or scientific context and establishes which

is of higher importance both to the media, their audience and why. This dissertation also

analyses what implications there are, if political issues surrounding climate change are

becoming more important than climate change itself?

I studied the actual science reported on a number of climate themes, and assessed

whether or not it is being reported accurately and effectively, by comparing it to the

current scientific literature.

My investigation focuses on the dominant themes and influential persons that feature in

the U.K and U.S newspaper articles sampled. By doing this, I differentiated the articles

on the basis of whether they are driven from scientific data sources or political data

sources. Finally, I examined the Ruddiman Hypothesis, a scientific hypothesis that has

received respect within the climate science community, to see if the media propagated it

effectively and accurately.

1.5 Chapter Outline

In order to carry out this study successfully, one must first of all begin to understand the

complexities of climate science, which I have done in Chapter 2 (Climate Science). A

review of the global warming debate and the academic works of scholars, who have

conducted studies around the subject of global warming in the media, will be presented

in Chapter 3 (Theoretical Context ). The methodological reasoning behind the study will



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be explained in Chapter 4 ( Methodologies), with attention being paid to each of the 5

investigations:

1) Content Analysis Measures

2) Accuracy of Science Reporting

3) Scientific vs. Political Themes

4) High Profile Figure Linkages

5) Ruddiman Hypothesis

The results will follow in Chapter 5 ( Results) with interpretations being made and my

conclusions being presented in Chapters 6 & 7 ( Discussion and Conclusion

respectively).

2.0 Climate Science

To be able to critically analyse news pieces within the media, it is vitally important to

gain an understanding on the up-to-date climate science, whilst establishing what the

current scientific consensus is on the issue of global warming.

Climates of the past were characteristically unstable, fluctuating between warm and cold

times, over varying time scales. ³During the last million years, climate was for most of

the time somewhere in-between the extreme cold of glacial maxima and interglacial

warmth, and present day conditions only existed for about 10% of this time´ (Wilson et

al., 2007: 113).

2.1 Dating Techniques and Past Climates

Climate archives, such as ice cores, are capable of keeping a record of historic climates

going back hundreds of thousands of years (a million year record is still being pursued

in Antarctica) and they are one of the most accurate archives available as they keep

laminated records of past climates. The ice cores from Greenland (GISP and GRIP2)

hold a 110,000 year record that shows a 90,000 year slide from a warm period (similar

to our own), into the cold, dry, windy conditions of the last ice age. There was a 10,000



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year cli out of t e ice age and back to present day warm conditions which have

remained for a fur ther 10,000 years (Alley, 2002).Observation of Greenland ice cores

reveal the Holocene climate has been remarkably unstable and conf irm the occurrence of

rapid climatic var iation dur ing the last ice age (Gow et al, 1997). A range of different

proxies can be found within ice cores, including oxygen isotopes, which are also

observed in deep-sea sediments.

Dur ing glacial per iods, the cold air is not as capable at evaporating the heavier O18

isotope from the ocean. Consequently, the oceans become relatively more enr iched in

O18

whilst the ice sheets become relatively more enr iched in O16

(Lowe & Walker,

1997) (Figure 1). A record of sea surface temperature (sometimes spanning the length of

the Quaternary (Lowe & Walker, 1997)) has been kept through the constant pile up of

calcium carbonate laid down in the shells of mar ine organisms (e.g. foraminifera). This

is because the lower the temperature of the water, the greater the propor tion of 18

O

relative to16

O incorporated in the shell (Wilson et al., 2007). It is therefore also possi ble

to estimate previous global ice volumes based on the oxygen isotopic composition of

foraminifera shells. The study of di psticks (ocean sediment cores)has revealed features

in the Ear th¶s orbit have caused ice to expand/retreat, in response to summer /winter and

nor th/south distr i bution of solar radiation.

Figure 1: The role oxygen isotopes play in ice cores. Dur ing a glacial per iod, the heavier

oxygen isotope is less easily evaporated and more readily preci pitated than the lighter

oxygen isotope. This leads to a build up of the lighter oxygen isotope on land and leaves

the oceans relatively enr iched with the heavier oxygen isotope.

Source: htt p://www.geog.ucsb.edu/~williams/Isotopes.htm(03/11/09)



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The present interglacial conditions are most similar to those expected of MIS

11(410,000 years ago), which is the only interglacial that may have been as long and as

warm as the present one (White, 2004). The Vostok ice core in Antarctica reveals the

previous three interglacials have been in the region of 4,000-6,000 years long, whilst the

present is 12,000 years and still going (Petit et al. 1999).

R uddiman (2003) believes we have been saved from going into an ear ly ice age as a

result of ear ly human agr icultural practices based on compar isons of CO2

and CH4

from

the Vostok ice core dur ing the (Holocene) and the (natural) drops in the previous three

interglaciations. R uddiman¶s ear ly anthropocene hypothesis states humans have been

affecting the natural CO2 balance for 8,000 years, when our agrar ian ancestors star ted

practicing intensive farming methods. R uddiman states it was at this time that

atmospher ic greenhouse gases stopped following their natural pattern, which can be well

explained by Milankovitch cycles.

2.2 T i ¡ ¢ £ ¤ l ¡ ¢

o f Cli ¤ t ¡ C ¥

¤ ¦ § ¡

Climate change has been occurr ing over varying time scales for billions of years. There

are four distinct time-scales that I have identif ied. 1) The longest operates over literally

billions of years. Through the analysis of sedimentary rocks, it is possi ble to identify the

natural CO2

cycle (Figure 2).

Figure 2: The Natural Carbon Dioxide Cycle

Source: htt p://www.vtaide.com/ png/images/carbonCycle2. j pg(02/11/09)



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2) Over hundreds of millions of years, continental drift has rearranged the

continents all over the globe and hence altered atmospheric circulations and ocean

currents (e.g. the thermohaline circulation (Critchfield, 1966)). During the Cretaceous

period, Earth was ice-free. It was attributed to atmospheric rates of carbon dioxide,

which were thought to be 4 times higher than modern levels (Kump, 2008: cited in

Wayman, 2008) and not to the continents bundling around the equator. The present day

is currently in one of the colder times within this cycle, with lots of ice and little CO2,

but the Earth is thought to be near the end of the 100 million year slide from the

Cretaceous and on its way back towards warm conditions.

3) Over hundreds of thousands of years, colder and warmer climates have oscillated

as the Earth¶s orbit has varied. The variation of the Earth¶s orbit (first identified by

Milankovitch, 1941) does not increase/decrease the total amount of solar radiation

reaching the Earth but it does alter where the sunlight is received on Earth and at what

time in the year. Milankovitch claimed µchanges in the intensity of the seasons in the

northern hemisphere controlled the waxing and waning of northern high latitude ice

sheets¶ (Wilson et al., 2007).

4) Over mere years to a few decades, climate can alter due to coupled atmosphere-

ocean oscillations, the most familiar being the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and

the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with the effects being felt in many parts of the

world. When El Nino is in effect, the western Pacific waters are warm, and the surface

pressures are high. The strength of the Asian monsoon is weakened by El Nino events;

whilst, in contrast, the Pacific coast of the Americas experiences heavy rainfall in

seasons that are normally relatively dry (Wilson et al., 2007). When the cold phase, La

Nina is in effect, the surface pressures in the western Pacific are low, leading to a cold,

dry climate in the America¶s whilst Indonesia is humid.

However, the Earth¶s climate is riddled with complexities and feedback systems that can

ultimately affect the impacts of the aforementioned factors that drive climate change.

Changes in the Earth¶s climate over millions of years have not been too much larger

than changes over mere years/decades. This is because feedback systems acting over

long time period (negative feedbacks) act to oppose forcing, resulting in large forces

having small overall effects. However feedbacks acting over short periods (positive

feedbacks) appear to amplify forcing, resulting in small causes having large effects.



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2.3 Climate Change Over the Last 15ka

The transition out of the last ice age and towards the modern warm period was not a

smooth one, with several abrupt warming and cooling stages. One of the best known of

these abrupt climate changes back towards the ice age was the Younger Dryas, which

lasted from 12,900 to 11,600 years ago (Lovell & Kelly, 2008).

There have been multiple smaller and slower climate changes over more recent years,

which appear to becoming more and more amplified. µThe Little Ice Age¶ for example

was a period of cooling primarily effecting Europe and parts of North America, however

Grove (1988) argues it was felt across much of the globe, with greatest influence in the

high latitudes and high altitudes. The LIA occurred after the Medieval Warm Period

(1550-1850), and has been linked to: decreased solar activity (Maunder Minimum),

increased volcanic activity, thermohaline circulation slowdown, and anthropogenic

activity (Ruddiman, 2003). One study concluded the LIA was the result of the most

recent expression of a 1-2ky cycle that can be traced back 80ky (Bond et al., 1999).

Bond et al., (1999) also suggested the same cycle drove Heinrich events and Dansgaard-

Oeschger cycles during the Pleistocene. These recent climate changes were on a

significantly smaller scale than the Younger Dryas ( 12,800 - 11,500 yrs ago).

However, they were still thought to have forced human civilizations to migrate towards

lower latitudes as indicated by the apparent disappearance of Viking settlements from

Iceland & Greenland (Mandia, 2009).

2.4 Bond, Dansgaar-Oeschger and H einrich

The aforementioned Dansgaard-Oeschger events, are examples of rapid climate change

that took place throughout the last ice age (25 in total). They consist of an abrupt

warming followed by a period of slower cooling, both of which are then repeated. Each

Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle was cooler than its predecessor until a Heinrich event

occurred and a mass of sea ice, from the Laurentide Ice Sheet, was dumped into the

north Atlantic at Hudson Bay. There are thought to have been 6 Heinrich events, which

were characteristically followed with an especially large period of warming. There was

debate over whether or not the Younger Dryas should also be classified as a Heinrich

event, and it is now generally considered to be the last one (Labeyrie et al., 2007). Bond



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(1997) has identified what could potentially be the equivalent of Dansgaard-Oeschger

for the current interglacial and has found ³the Holocene events appear to be the most

recent manifestation of a pervasive millennial-scale climate cycle operating

independently of the glacial-interglacial cycle´ (Bond et al., 1997: 1).

2.5 Thermohaline Circulation

The THC has been identified as a fundamental system, within the Earth¶s oceans, for

modifying climates. If switched off (unlikely), or slowed down (more likely) the warm

equatorial waters, which usually flow towards the poles in an attempt to distribute heat

around the globe will no longer, function efficiently (Rahmstorf & Ganopolski (1999).

According to models, the continuation of the THC is affected by temperature and

salinity so a change in either of these can result in catastrophic global impacts. However,

some studies suggest the THC weakens with cooling and strengthens with warming, as

indicated by previous records from the LIA and Medeival Warm Period (Lund et al.,

2006).

2.6 Contemporary Global Warming

Global warming is the µregional- and global-scale climate change due to human

activities¶ (Harvey, 2000; 15). The present day release of CO2 into the atmosphere is

primarily linked to the combustion of fossil fuels and could be the influential push factor

that forces our climate to change in an abrupt, intense and widespread manor, resulting

in widespread crop failure and social disruption (Alley, 2007). Greenhouse forcing has

been increasing exponentially since the end of the 19th

century, which coincides, with

the start of the industrial revolution.

Many sceptics deny global warming is happening as a result of anthropogenic forcing.

They believe the recent warming can be accounted for through natural variations, such

as sun spot activity, that has caused significant changes in the past through amplified

positive feedbacks (Geel et al., 1999). However, Be10

evidence from ice cores shows

when the sun is more active, the solar wind is more effective at protecting the Earth

from cosmic rays and so reducing the impact of solar forcing.



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R eid (1997) modelled natural climate change and was unable to account for the current

level of warming we are exper iencing. However, when R eid combined natural climate

change with human warming, the model is able to explain current overall warming

(Figure 3). It is impor tant to identify the fact that the model is based on the Holocene, an

epoch that is star ting to behave like no previous interglacial.

Figure 3: Model reconstructions of global temperature anomalies (depar tures from an

arbitrary temperature of 14.4C) due to solar forcing alone, and their combination.

Observed global average temperature depar tures from the 1951-1980 average are also

shown (Nicholls et al., 1996..cited in R eid, 1997).

The International Panel on Climate Change (2007) stated the evidence of modern day

warming is ³unequivocal in their four th and latest assessment repor t with ³most of the

observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th

century is very

likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations´.

3.0 Th i l B k

3.1 The Global Warming Debate Thus Far

In the 1960s and 1970s, many scientists believed the Ear th was headed towards a global

ice age largely due to the soot being emitted by coal power stations which, was



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originally thought to form a layer in the Earth¶s atmosphere that blocked incoming solar

radiation (Schneider, 1971). However in 1976, when the global cooling issue was

starting to break into the press, a significant, heat wave struck the U.K, and scientists

decided to rethink what the climate was doing. Scientists now started thinking about

global warming.

There has been much controversy as to whether or not anthropogenic global warming is

occurring, particularly throughout the 1990s. Boykoff & Roberts (2007) state how the

beginning of the 1990s saw an ³increasingly complex politicisation of the triple interface

of climate science-media-policy (Trumbo, 1996; Boykoff & Boykoff 2004)´. This

complex politicisation is partly attributable to a small number of influential

spokespeople and scientists who appeared in the press to be disputing scientific findings

regarding human contributions to global warming. These people are referred to as

µsceptics¶ and they have been known to receive funding from carbon-based industries,

(e.g. Exxon Mobil). Sceptics have argued apparent flaws in climate scientists research,

findings and logic, it can therefore be argued that they have delayed significant action

taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Cynics started out by arguing that the climate

system was simply too vast to modify and any modifications would be small and we

would have time to adjust. ³Through the 1990s, government officials, who were often

armed with the findings of the global warming sceptics, became the most cited source in

prestige-press articles, surpassing scientists, who were the most cited source in 1988

(Wilkins 1993; McCright and Dunlap 2003; Boykoff & Roberts 2007).

The Keeling Curve (based on air samples collected by Keeling (1961)) is a graph

showing the increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide from 1958 to the

present day (Figure 4) which, when first published, made the sceptics aware of the

impact humans were causing on atmospheric concentrations, due to their lifestyles.

What sceptics still questioned was whether or not the increase in carbon dioxide was

directly linked to increased observed temperatures.

Oreskes and Renouf (2008) showed when people began to realise global warming was a

real event that required attention, certain people purposely avoided the issue. The US

government commissioned a total of 3 reports in the late 1970s and early 1980s on

global warming.



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Figure 4: The Keeling Curve

htt p://icestor ies.explorator ium.edu/dispatches/wpcontent/uploads/2008/05/keeling_graph

. j pg (17/01/10)

The initial 2 repor ts were carr ied out by elite scientists of the US, the f irst by the Jasons

(MacDonald et al., 1979), a secret US science organisation and the second by the

National Academy of Sciences (Charney, 1979). Both repor ts informed the Whitehouse

that carbon dioxide levels were set to carry on increasing which would result in

increased average global temperatures and therefore would have fr ightening impacts to

civilisation. This clear ly indicates that by the ear ly 1980s, the wor ld¶s leading climate

scientists were already conf ident that they knew what r ising carbon dioxide levels would

mean for the future.

R onald R eagan, former president of the USA (1981-1989), was pro-business and pro-

Amer ica. He was aware the USA was a key contr i butor to a global acid rain problem

and that it was also by far the wor ld¶s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. If global

warming became a prominent issue then the USA was going to be seen as the key

country for the allocation of blame. R eagan went on to employ Bill Nierenberg to

produce the 3rd

repor t about global warming. The repor t, released in 1983, was different

in that each chapter was wr itten by different authors, many of which repor ted

mainstream scientif ic f indings (similar to repor ts 1&2), however the f inal synthesis

chapter, wr itten by Nierenberg himself, somewhat neglected the scientif ic consensus.

Nierenberg told the public to µcalm down¶ as climate change would undoubtedly impact

our planet but that was nothing new and he highlighted how humans had successfully

adapted in previous centur ies (The Climate Wars: Fight for the Future, 18 Dec 2009). He



20

also claimed that time was on our side and the impacts would not be noticeable for at

least another 40 years, by which time, technological advances would be able to cope

with climate demands (Oreskes & Renouf, 2008). The topic of global warming was to be

forgotten about until a time when it actually required attention; Nierenberg appeared to

have won the battle at a political level.

The number of climate sceptics has fallen considerably as time has gone on and the

mounting evidence on global warming becomes increasingly incontrovertible. Evidence

that counter-acted the sceptic¶s arguments came in a variety of forms. Firstly, ice core

analysis showed the climate was capable of changing drastically and rapidly and doing

so on multiple occasions.

Secondly, a gap in the ozone layer that covers nearly the whole of Antarctica has been

attributed to the release of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are leaked, from aerosols

and refrigerators, into the atmosphere. This gap exposes the Earth to harmful solar

radiation that the ozone layer would have otherwise protected us against. This shows

that the human race is capable of having a significant and detrimental impact on the

environment. Finally, multiple heat waves have occurred since 1976, which have led to

records being set and broken many times over.

In 1988, a leading NASA scientist called Jim Hansen, expressed his view; that humans

were responsible for climate change in front of congressional committees, and within a

few months the UN set up the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The earth has warmed by 1 degree over the last century according to global temperature

data. It started warming in 1910 with global temperature records being broken

continuously. This period of warming lasted until the 1940s when the warming paused.

The warming continued in the 1970s and was more dramatic than the first period at the

start of the 20th

century. These observations in temperature were based on data from a

series of thermometers situated across the globe. Sceptics argued they were inaccurate

due to the urban heat island effect and it was the growth of cities that the increasing

temperatures represented, and not a change in climate.



21

At the start of the 21st

century satellites collected temperature data that showed the earth

had been cooling for the last 10 years. This was a huge victory for the sceptics; however

it was revealed at a later date that the satellite data was riddled with errors. Once these

errors were amended, the satellite data revealed a warming trend of ever-increasing

amounts.

Septics went on to argue that the Earth had been this hot in the not so distant past, during

the Medieval Warm Period. However, Mann (1998) produced the famous µhockey stick

graph¶ which brought together all the available proxy data on past climate temperatures

over the last 1,000 years, however, it is not actually accepted by all in the climate

community. The Medieval Warm Period did not feature on his graph, which then went

on to be reconstructed in a similar fashion by many other scientists. All of the data

shows that the temperatures observed in the second half of the 20th century has not been

replicated at any point over the last 1,000 years.

Sunspots were the next reason critics used to argue that the climate was naturally heating

up, supported by studies such as Wilson¶s (1997). They claimed that when the sun is

active, it sends out waves of charged particles known as a solar wind. Records of

sunspots even showed that the LIA coincided with the Maunder Minimum, where there

were limited sunspots. It was later established that the total amount of heat given off by

the sun is fairly constant, regardless of sunspots (Wang et al., 2005). A new theory,

relating to sunspots, implied cosmic rays from outer space interact with the atmosphere

to create clouds (Svensmark, 1998). However, when the sun is active it sends out a

powerful solar wind, which blows the cosmic rays away. Therefore an active sun results

in fewer clouds and a warmer world.

Sceptics still existed despite the fact that their key arguments kept being rejected. This is

because there are numerous people who don¶t want to face the realities of global

warming because it has the potential to adversely effect modern ways of life.

For major businesses in the energy sector the reality of pro-global warming government-

imposed policies may affect their profits. µThe Global Climate Coalition¶, formed of

American businesses, and backed by George W Bush, was created in order to oppose

immediate action on reducing greenhouse gases in 1989, after the IPCC produced a





23

been reported over the last 2-3 decades. A wide variety of media factors that could

influence climate change coverage have been focused upon including the media

attention cycles of global warming (Ungar, 1992; Trumbo, 1996, Liu et al 2006) whilst

(Bell, 1994) looked at how science often becomes misinterpreted through the media.

Boykoff & Boykoff (2004) focused on journalistic norms (e.g. neutrality,

personalisation and objectivity) and found journalists were falsely reporting climate

change by obeying these norms.

One study looked at how certain sets of values can affect news coverage on climate

change and the actions that ought to be undertaken (Carvalho & Burgess, 2005). The

aforementioned study was reported to have ³revealed changes in the way British

newspapers framed climate change risk that seemed to stem from changes in both

climate science and governmental policy positions´ (Liu et al., 2008: 380).

Weingart, Engles & Pansegrau (2000) observed the changes in climate discourse in

scientific, political and news media in Germany. Their results revealed a convergence

over time with an initial recognition of the predicament in the scientific literature,

followed by political discourse, which pointed the issue to elements that the state had a

degree of power over. The news media then went on to emphasize agreement as opposed

to debate within the scientific community (Liu et al., 2008). On the other hand, Zehr

(2000) observed how climate change uncertainty being reported through the media,

coincidentally led to public uncertainty and an alteration of the public¶s opinion. A study

focusing on the frames and themes surrounding global warming in the media was

conducted by Antilla (2005) with results that showed the articles were expressing far

more uncertainty and controversy with in the scientific community than actually exists.

The work of climate sceptics has been promoted through the orchestrated efforts of

climate change opponents according to McCright & Dunlap (2000,2003) and this has led

to a greater sense of controversy than actually exists within the climate science

community.

After reviewing the literature, I have concluded that a gap exists as no one has

previously attempted to establish whether politics is more important than science when it

comes to reporting on global warming.



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4.0 Met odology

4.1 Time frame, Newspaper Consideration and Lexis Nexis

The form of analysis will come from reading a series of newspaper articles from

American and U.K papers, between 01/01/1988 ± 01/01/2009. I selected 1988 as a

starting point due to a number of factors : First, leading NASA scientist, Jim Hansen,

came forward and testified to US Congress that he believed anthropogenic global

warming was occurring; second, Margaret Thatcher made a speech to the Royal Society

in London where she stated that with global warming, ³we may have unwittingly begun

a massive experiment with the system of the planet itself´ (Leggett, 2001: 10..cited in

Boykoff and Boykoff, 2004); and third, a major heat wave hit North America, leading to

severe droughts. Humphrys and Williams (2005) also state the late 1980s are often

referred to as the heyday of media environmental coverage.

The 4 US newspapers were The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today and

The H ouston Chronicle. The 4 UK newspapers I focused on were The Guardian, The

Times, The Independent and Metro (UK). These papers have been selected for a number

of reasons including: politics, geography, prestige and the readership demographics.

Articles from these papers were accessed through an advanced search engine known as

Lexis Nexis, the world¶s largest collection of public records, unpublished opinions,

forms, legal, news, and business information. Their database has been used by many

others (Antilla; 2005, Boykoff & Boykoff; 2004, Liu et al.; 2008 etc.). The search I

conducted was ³global warming´ OR ³climate change´, to appear in the headline, for

articles that were published between the aforementioned dates and the results were

categorised by relevance.

4.2.1 Sample size and Analytical Methods

In this study, a significant sample of 50 articles for each country (100 in total), were

studied and compared. The sample was collected from the results of the search outlined

above, with the first 50 being used in the study. However, each article was required to be



25

answer 2 questions, in order to qualify for the study, as the answers to these questions

were needed to form the quantitative results. If an article was unable to address the

necessary questions, it may have been disregarded completely from the study, unless it

was able to offer any useful qualitative information. An additional article would have

been substituted in, in order to keep the 50-article sample intact, for quantitative

purposes. Certain articles were excluded from the results including: letters to the editor

and book reviews.

There were two questions asked of each article studied. These were:

1) Does the article debate of the existence of anthropogenic global warming?

2) Is there any mention of taking action against global warming?

This provided me with quantitative data to support my qualitative findings, which will

come from reading the articles and noting key points and quotes. The investigation

should provide an insight into the attitudes of the British and the American press on the

topic of global warming.

4.2.2 Accuracy of Science

Themes were identified based on the main scientific subject fields that feature in thenewspaper articles. Within these themes I then attempted to scrutinise the science in an

effort to assess whether or not the newspapers were effectively reflecting the up-to-date

scientific literature.

4.2.3 Scientific vs. Political Themes

To determine the proportion of articles that were based on science and how many were

based on politics I looked at themes, which were provided through Lexis Nexis.

As my search was global warming OR climate change, they featured as the main themes

in each article, therefore I looked at the next most prominent theme. I recorded the

theme and decided whether it is more readily linked to policy or science, based on the

themes definitions.



4.2.4 High Profile Figure Linkages

I expected specific high profile figures, of both scientific and political backgrounds, to

be referenced in many of the articles that I reviewed. Lexis Nexis records the extent to

which certain people feature in the articles and records their input as a percentage, which

was provided alongside the themes at the end of each article. If there wasn¶t anyone who

featured prominently in the article then there wouldn¶t be a person linked. Often, more

than one high profile figure was linked; in this case, I recorded the person with the

largest involvement in the article, determined by observing the given percentages. A list

of the high profile figures was constructed and analysed in order to determine the

affiliation, whether it be scientific or political, of the persons in question.

4.2.5 Ruddiman Hypothesis Investigation

The Ruddiman Hypothesis (explained in chapter 2) is a topic that has received much

attention from the scientific community. I attempted to determine whether it has

received a similar level of attention from the media by using Lexis Nexis. I conducted

the same search as previously outlined, except for replacing ³Global Warming´ OR

³Climate Change´ with ³Ruddiman´ in the search engine.

However, the likelihood of this search returning many results was low as it is rare for

scientist¶s names to appear in headlines. I therefore conducted further searches that were

more likely to return results. In the previous search, results were restricted to appear µin

the headline¶. I changed the search criteria so the search is widened to results that appear

µanywhere¶ within the article. The results were sorted in terms of their relevance and

analyzed with the intention of establishing whether the articles reflected the true science.

I also looked at the two leading journals; µScience¶ and µNature¶. A study published

within Science or Nature is worthy of attention and the leading newspapers of today

should be reading them, with the intention of following up on articles published within. I

used the online archive for each magazine and searched between the same date ranges as

the earlier study (01/01/1988 ± 01/01/2009) and the search was the same as in the

newspapers (µWilliam Ruddiman¶).

Documents

Dissertation - up to Results