DISSEMINATION OF DISSEMINATION OF WEATHER / CLIMATE WEATHER / CLIMATE INFORMATION AND INFORMATION AND

PRODUCTS TOPRODUCTS TO INCREASE FOOD INCREASE FOOD

PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION

Sue Walker Sue Walker Prof of AgrometeorologyProf of AgrometeorologyDept. Soil, Crop & Climate SciencesDept. Soil, Crop & Climate SciencesUniversity of the Free StateUniversity of the Free StateSouth Africa South Africa

WEATHER AFFECTS ALL LIFE ON EARTH

Agricultural production is the most weather dependent of human activities.

Crop production is not simple but complex dynamic response to interactions in soil-crop-atmosphere system including physiology and phenology, including state of environment prior to season.

WHY A SEASONAL FORECAST?WHY A SEASONAL FORECAST?

benefits are possiblebenefits are possible

use forecast in decision makinguse forecast in decision making

make management response that can make management response that can change the anticipated impact change the anticipated impact

forecast forecast acquires value acquires value

need shift from “passive acceptance” need shift from “passive acceptance” to “active response” to “active response”

so what so what ACTION ACTION can you take !can you take !

WHEN?WHEN? with sufficient time with sufficient time to act / reactto act / react to disseminate information to disseminate information to formulate alternative plan to formulate alternative plan to make decisions to make decisions

convenient time for clientconvenient time for client

WHERE?WHERE? regular/routine column/slotregular/routine column/slot

news flash / headlinenews flash / headline

frequent repeats or updates frequent repeats or updates

HOW?HOW? radio, TVradio, TV telephone, fax, text messagetelephone, fax, text message print mediaprint media daily / weeklydaily / weekly specialized periodicalsspecialized periodicalspersonal contact personal contact with individuals or groups with individuals or groups via leaders - community, religious, sport, family via leaders - community, religious, sport, family role-plays role-plays advertisingadvertising T-shirtsT-shirts soap powder boxsoap powder box farmer to farmer farmer to farmer

WHAT?WHAT?prognostic – what is likely to happen?prognostic – what is likely to happen?diagnostic – what has happen in recent past?diagnostic – what has happen in recent past?

what is happening now? what is happening now?message must be able to change probable impact message must be able to change probable impact by being appliedby being appliedmust address relevant information and promote must address relevant information and promote feasible actionfeasible action culturally specific persuasive messageculturally specific persuasive message

highlight threathighlight threat respond to a cue respond to a cue develop a meaningful goal develop a meaningful goal within the cultural environmentwithin the cultural environment

develop a persuasive message that can lead to develop a persuasive message that can lead to specific actionspecific action

GUIDELINE TO IMPROVE DISSEMATIONGUIDELINE TO IMPROVE DISSEMATION

Map out path of message Map out path of message from climate experts to community from climate experts to community locate gaps, weak linkslocate gaps, weak links

Identify usersIdentify users make audience profilesmake audience profiles characterize subgroups characterize subgroups

id their specific goalsid their specific goals

look for look for under-represented groupsunder-represented groups

under-served groupsunder-served groups

new users/missed groupsnew users/missed groups

GUIDELINE TO IMPROVE DISSEMATIONGUIDELINE TO IMPROVE DISSEMATION

Characterize level of prior knowledge and beliefs Characterize level of prior knowledge and beliefs

ID key/sensitive decision points ID key/sensitive decision points what is technically possible what is technically possible what is socio-economically feasible what is socio-economically feasible

Package information to target these pointsPackage information to target these points

Provide range of options whereProvide range of options where decisions actually result in decisions actually result in tangible output tangible output

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

know you clients needs know you clients needs

know what is availableknow what is available

know most critical weather affected know most critical weather affected decisionsdecisions

know information needed for decision know information needed for decision making making

work out credible scenarios work out credible scenarios

present options and consequences present options and consequences

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

So let us So let us help public / users / layman help public / users / layman

make transition from make transition from “passive acceptance” “passive acceptance”

of weather by enabling of weather by enabling and equipping them to and equipping them to

make an make an “active “active response”response” to to optimize opportunities optimize opportunities