Disaster Risks in Central Asia

Michael Thurman

Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor, ECIS

"Improving Regional Coordination in Managing Compound Risks in Central Asia“ 14-15 April 2011

Contents

1. Geophysical, Meteorological, and Compound Hazards

2. Impacts

3. Economic, Structural, and Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities

Geophysical Hazards

• All major cities are highly exposed and contain a high concentration of population and economic activity.

• Secondary effects include landslides, mudflows, and GLOFs. Not enough is known concerning the triggering effect.

• Landslides triggered by geological, seismic, and meteorological processes

• Landslides will become more frequent and intensify with climate change.

• Transboundary hazards in Ferghana Valley and northern Tien Shan.

Meteorological Hazards: Floods

• Most frequently occurring type of hazard• 1991-2007: high water years more frequent by 1.2-1.4 times, extremely high water by 2.0-2.5 times.• Exposure to floods often due to lack of transboundary cooperation.• GLOFs are a growing concern, due to glacier melt.• Climate change will amplify exposure to all types of flood hazard.• Ferghana Valley and upper Amu Darya basin highly exposed to transboundary mudflow and GLOF hazards.

Meteorological Hazards: Drought

• Localized meteorological drought occurs frequently• Widespread drought with severe impacts every 5-10 years• Hydrological drought results from improper management at basin, national, and local level• Climate change will make precipitation more sporadic and increase evaporation and ET

Compound Hazards

• Hydrological drought and extreme cold:

o “Compound crisis” of 2007-08: natural and man-made factors contributed to exposure

o Climate change expected to result in warmer winters, but hydrological drought more severe

• Technogenic hazards: Mayli Suu and other toxic waste particularly a concern in the Ferghana Valley

Disaster Impacts

• Fatalities and economic losses (% GDP) highest in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

• Earthquakes account for most fatalities, followed by floods and landslides

• Droughts affect the largest number of people• Economic losses highest for earthquakes, then floods,

drought, and landslides • Earthquake impacts most apparent in urban areas:

housing, transportation, utility infrastructure; indirect economic impacts.

• Landslides and meteorological hazards have greatest impact on rural areas: housing and basic services, agriculture, drinking water, food security.

Economic Vulnerability

• Lack of adequate data, due to collection and analysis procedures for global and national datasets.• Potential for losses as % of GDP highest for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.• Absolute amount of potential losses for other countries are higher.• Vulnerable to meteorological hazards: weather-dependent sectors account for 40-60% of GDP.

Structural Vulnerability

• Intense earthquake in a major city in Central Asia would collapse or severely damage around half of the residential building stock.• Water infrastructure deteriorated and vulnerable to flood hazards• Outdated building codes and lax enforcement attenuate structural vulnerability

Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities

• Poverty, income disparities, and social status significantly lower resilience.• Poor municipal and land use planning place populations, infrastructure, and livelihoods in the way of hazards.• Unsustainable operations and maintenance of infrastructure, especially for water, increases both exposure and vulnerability. • Agriculture requires strengthening to lower vulnerability to drought and floods.• Environmental degradation contributes to exposure and vulnerability.

Conclusions

• Vulnerabilities are mainly the result of flawed development.

• Many disaster risks require transboundary solutions:

o Monitoring, risk assessment, early warning, o Addressing vulnerabilities in watero (Potentially) preparedness and response

• In order to address vulnerabilities and mitigate/prevent disasters, need to improve understanding of risks. Most urgent needs are in the following areas:

o Monitoring networks, especially for meteorological hazardso Projections of hazard exposure and impacts related to climate

changeo Vulnerability analysis and capacity assessmento Data collection, management, and mapping toolso Digitization of data

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