DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (DRM/DRR) TEAM

Date: 12/14/2016

Director: Makarand (Mark) Hastak, Ph.D., PE, CCP

Professor and Head of Division of Construction Engineering and Management

Professor of Lyles School of Civil Engineering

Summary of Research Directions

1

SPARC LABORATORY

Presented bySayanti Mukhopadhyay, PhD Candidate

Prof. Hastak – DRM/DRR Group: Areas of Expertise

ROLE OF INFRASTRUCTURE IN DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT

Infrastructure Management

DRR / DRM

Infrastructure Resilience &

Capacity building

Criticality, Vulnerability

& Severity Assessment

Post disaster supply chain & business continuity issues

Disaster financing & reinsurance

Debris Management

Planning optimal strategies for rehabilitation

Capital rehabilitation

planning

Budget allocation & prioritization

Post disaster Housing

Infrastructure finance

Infrastructure risk

1.Resilience & capacity building of infrastructure / communities

2. How to allocate & prioritize budget for such investments?

DSS for Electricity sector

Resilience investments

*DSS: Decision Support System

Optimal Planning for Infrastructure capacity building, resilience

Water Treatment Plant

Hospital

Power Plant

DEVELOPED MODELS

1. Vulnerability, Severity, Criticality Assessment2. Disaster impact mitigation support system (DIMSuS)3. Infrastructure capacity building analysis

TOOLS USED

1. Bayesian analysis2. Systems dynamics3. Discrete event simulation4. Genetic algorithm5. Network analysis

7 layers of interrelated critical infrastructure

Hospital

Simulating repeat events would fine tune the process for Building Capacities and Enhancing community Resilience

Long

Term

Emergency

Short

Termt1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t9 t10 t11

TimeDisaster 1

t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t9 t10 t11

Time

Disaster 3Disaster 2

Emergency

Short

Term

Simulating emergency, short- and long-term recovery strategies

FLOOD

Stress-strain capacity analysis for post-disaster infrastructure

Increase

in functional stress

on infrastructure facilities

Deteriorated capacities

of supporting

infrastructure

Enormous demands

for infrastructural

service

Disaster impacts on operation of critical infrastructure

Failure of the infrastructure to

provide required service for

recovery

Expected Outcomes

- Identification of bottleneck infrastructure

- Evaluation of ex-post capacity needs of critical infrastructure

Hospital Networks Pre-disaster conditionPost-disaster condition

Hospital

Infrastructure System

Zone of influence

Stress-strain concept- Functional stress for an infrastructure is defined as demand on

an infrastructure during unit time

- Strain of an infrastructure is defined as the rate at which the

capacity is used in response to the applied stress

Supply chain networks (SCN) needs reliable services of 7 types of critical infrastructure for service continuity• Civil / Civic / Social / Environmental / Financial / Educational / Cyber

5Infrastructure Supply Chain Network based on Business Continuity

1. Develop a robust supply chain network

model with respect to supply chain

continuity management

2. Develop a infrastructure network model

and identify critical routes and

infrastructures

3. Combine two models to assess as

coupling system

4. Perform criticality, vulnerability, and

serviceability assessments for the

infrastructure connectivity between

supply chain entities in terms of

Business Continuity

5. Find possible bottlenecks

infrastructures and develop optimal

strategies accordingly

Infrastructure-Supply chain Coupling Model

Supply Chain Network Model Critical Infrastructure Network Model

P(Failure of Infrastructure)

P(Failure of Interdependent Infrastructure)

P(Failure of Supply Chain Infrastructure)

Serviceability Assessment

serviceability

Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Activity Analysis Infrastructure Mapping

Assistance Level Relative Criticality

Criticality Assessment (Social & Economic Contribution)

Vulnerability Assessment (Structural & Functional Failure)

1

2

3

4

5

1 2

3

45

Strategic decision making for electricity sector resilience investments

Resilience Investment Issues

1.Extreme event risks are not considered in regulatory decision-making process

2.No incentive for investor-owned utilities (IOUs) to invest in overall risk minimization

3.Utilities work in a highly competitive & strict regulatory environment

4.Economic loss due to cascading impacts are undervalued

5.Investment strategies only consider reliability, not resilience enhancement

Risk Based Decision Support System (RDSS)

1.State electricity sector vulnerabilities based on historical tend & patterns

2.Estimate power outage risks in the electric sector

3.Assess cascading economic losses due to such power outages

4.Assist regulatory commissions to make informed decision making & consider minimizing extreme event risks in their regulatory decisions.

Water/Waste Water System

Failure Propagation

PGI vulnerability

Triggers

Cascading Failure in Infrastructure Business Disruption

Incr

ease

d e

con

om

ic lo

ss

Infrastructure Damage Public Health & Safety

Natural Gas & Oil

Communication

Transportation

Government & Business

Healthcare Facilities

INCREASED POWER OUTAGES (Climate Central 2014)

Disaster Debris/Waste ManagementDisaster debris (FEMA 2007)• Materials – both natural and man-made • Any material including trees, branches, personal property & building

material on public or private property that is directly deposited by a disaster

Historical amount of debris generated by a disaster

Football stadium = about 1M CY(Cubic yard)

Debris generated Instantly overwhelms current solid waste management capacity (5~10 times higher than annual solid waste from a community)

Debris removal : 27~40% of the total disaster recovery cost

Adaptive Decision Support System

to navigate complexity of post-disaster debris management

1. Develop a framework for effective post-disaster debris management

2. Identify network interdependency & network dynamics to optimize debris removal operation

3. Temporary Debris Management Site design/selection model to handle debris/waste in economic and environmental ways

4. Provide a GIS-based decision support system for optimal solutions and monitoring system for effective coordination among agencies

Expected Results- Input / Output

Entities at macro level

Entities at state level

Entities at micro level

Risks at macro level

Risks at state level

Risks at micro level

Impact analysis modules for entities at macro level

Impact analysis modules for entities at state level

Impact analysis modules for entities at micro level

Risk indicators at macro level

Risk indicators at state level

Risk indicators at micro level

Interaction among entitiesRisk structure and their

relationshipsImpact analysis modules Risk indicators

Entities at community level Risks at community level

Impact analysis modules for entities at community

level

Risk indicators at community level

Entities at macro level Risks at macro levelImpact analysis modules for entities at macro level

Risk indicators at macro level

Interaction among entitiesRisk structure and their

relationships Impact analysis modules Risk indicators

• Federal government or its ministry

• Multi-lateral financial institutions

• (Re) Insurance companies

• Special purpose vehicles

• Disaster risks

• Country risks

• Credit risks

• Market risks

• Event risks

• Liquidity risks

• Economic impact

• Social impact

• Environmental impact

• Financial impact

• Socio-economic risk indicators

• Environmental risk indicators

• Development indicators

• Monitoring and control indicators

•Interactions or relationships•Needs •Roles and responsibilities•Organization structure

•Risk parameters•Risk equations•Interdependencies

•Economic impact module•Financial impact module

•Probability graphs•Risk tables

There is a need to

• reduce the gap between overall losses and insured losses

• provide financial protection (ex ante) for post-disaster services

Disaster insurance and infrastructure policy

Risk Analysis Framework for Entities Involved in DRR

Summary

Decision Support Systems

• Optimal Planning for infrastructure capacity building / resilience• Assessing Strain Capacity using Functional Stress Strain Analysis• Infrastructure Supply Chain using Business Continuity Principle

• Extreme-event risk minimization & resilience enhancement in electricity sector

• Disaster Debris/Waste Management

• Disaster insurance and infrastructure policy

Can Be Applied to Both Developed & Developing Countries

Thanks!

Makarand (Mark) Hastak, PhD, PE, CCPProfessor and Head of Division of Construction Engineering and Management

Professor of Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University

Email: hastak@purdue.edu