DISASTER IMPACT ON THE CARIBBEAN

J. COLLYMORE

Key Ideas • The Caribbean islands consist of generally geographical areas which are at

risk from many natural hazards. • The economies of island countries are particularly affected by natural

disasters. • Hazard mitigation is essential to Caribbean Islands where disasters may

occur with regularity. • Hazard mitigation and disaster recovery may require a major financial

commitment from the national budget.

The Caribbean region has a long a history of natural disasters associated with such hazards as hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides and droughts. The distribution of natural hazards which afflict the people of the Caribbean is shown in Figure 1. The impact on populations has consistently been debilitating natural disasters, often resulting in the retardation of economic and social development. In the present century, 77% of disasters have been associated with natural hazards (Figures 2 and 3). Of these, over three quarters may be attributed to windstorms or floods. However, despite this large number of natural disasters, nearly two thirds of those who have lost their lives in disasters have done so through disasters resulting from human actions or activities. In spite of a long history of natural disasters, efforts of regional governments to mitigate potential vulnerability have been lacking. Figure 1: Natural hazards in the Caribbean Figure 2: Natural Disaster Events in the Caribbean: 1990 - 1997 Figure 3: Types of disasters in the Caribbean 1990 - 1997 (The figure for conflicts refers to separate conflict situations from 1993 - 1995 only) Figure 4: Fatalities in the Caribbean by Disaster Type: 1993 – 1997

Hazard Risks and Experience of the Region Hazards are defined as threats to life, well being, material goods and environment from the extremes of natural processes. When interacting with social systems these natural hazards induce negative or damaging impacts. Disaster conditions arise when loss of life, injury to persons or destruction of property is on a scale which overcomes the capacity of society to cope without major changes in its normal operations. In response to the popular definition of "hazard" offered above it must be noted that while the extremity of the hazard event is a significant factor in damage and loss, the contributing role of economic, social and political actions in placing populations at risk cannot be ignored. Indeed, in many hazard studies social and economic factors are relegated to a low status when compared to geophysical factors. The idea is conveyed that the effects of calamity are determined by nature which decides where and what social response will become significant. The author of this chapter subscribes to the belief that hazards are not explained by, or are uniquely dependent upon, the geographical processes that may initiate damage. Far more attention must be paid to the social processes which underlie the objective phenomena of "natural hazard" and natural disaster". A thorough understanding of the economic structure is critical to a more effective investigation of vulnerability to disaster by the population. (Collymore 1988)

Exposure of the Region to Hazards The Caribbean region experiences three of the worst kinds of natural hazards; hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Loss of life resulting from the impacts of hazards runs into the thousands whilst property losses and other damages has reached billions of dollars at present day values. Almost every major city in the region has been devastated in the last 300 years by a natural disaster.

Hurricanes In the period 1910 - 1930, north Atlantic hurricanes averaged 3.5 per year which increased to an average of 6.0 per year between 1944 and 1980. Since 1960 a slight decrease in frequency has been observed, but intensities and magnitude have increased significantly. Some of the most severe hurricanes of the century have been experienced in this period and include David, Frederick, Allen and Gilbert. In the 110 years between 1871 and 1980, 119 hurricanes traversed the eastern Caribbean. In that same period there have been single years when as many as four hurricanes (1925) and five storms of less than hurricane intensity (1916, 1988) struck the region. (Granger 1988)

Table 1 lists the hurricanes bringing destruction to the region since the 18th century. Whereas the specifics on fatalities and property losses are not always reliable, the table shows the regular damage to housing and agriculture. Table 1: Hurricane disasters in the West Indies Event location Date Fatalities Property losses Jamaica 1722 400 Much (26 vessels) Cuba 1768 1,000 4,000 houses destroyed St. Kitts-Nevis 1772 Many £500,000Barbados 1780 4,326 £1,300,000. Bridgetown

partially destroyed Martinique 1780 9,000At Sea (Spanish Fleet)

1780 2,000

Jamaica 1780 300 £700,000 in one parish onlyBarbados 1831 2,000Dominica 1834 200Cuba 1846 SeveralSt. Thomas 1867 HundredsMartinique 1891 700 ImmenseSt. Vincent 1898 300Puerto Rico 1899 3,000 EnormousHaiti 1909 116Jamaica 1912 142 GreatHaiti 1915 1,600Puerto Rico 1918 116Cuba 1926 600Puerto Rico 1928 300Dominican Republic 1930 2,000Cuba 1932 2,500Haiti 1935 2,150Jamaica 1951 104 US $56 million H. JANET Barbados St. Vincent

1955 179

H. FLORA Bahamas Cuba Dom. Rep. Haiti

1956 7,175 US$ 784 million

Jamaica T'dad & Tob. H. INEZ Bahamas Cuba Dom. Rep Haiti Guadeloupe

1966 593 US$ 129 million

H. DAVID H. FREDERICK Dominica Dom. Rep.

1979 1,440 US$ 195 million

H. ALLEN Haiti Jamaica St Lucia St Vincent

1980 315 US$ 208 million

H. GILBERT Dom. Rep Haiti Jamaica

1988 453 US$ 1092 million

H. HUGO Dominica Guadeloupe Montserrat St Kitts Br Virgin Islands

1989 21 US $682 million

Total fatalities in major events

1722-1990

42,626

Additional fatalities in minor events

1722-1990

594

Total damage in major events

1960-1990

US $3.090 million

Source: Modified from Tomblin (1981)

Volcanoes Volcanic eruptions in St. Vincent in 1812. 1902, and 1979 resulted in loss of life, extensive damage to property, and the disruption of much key economic production. Table 2 shows the major volcanic disasters since 1812, the fatalities, and the percentage of the population at risk.

Table 2: Volcanic Disasters in the West Indies Event Location Date Fatalities Percentage of

at risk population

St Vincent 1812 56 2St Vincent 1902 1,565 26Martinique 1902 29,000 50Monserrat 1995 20 75TOTAL 30,621 The most recent volcanic disaster to afflict the Caribbean has occurred on the island of Monserrat. Although it had erupted in the early 1600s, the Soufriere Hills Volcano stayed dormant until July 18, 1995 and since then, activity has prompted three evacuations of the surrounding southern part of the island: the first on August 21, 1995; the second on December 1 of that year; and the third, which began on April 3, 1996 and continues today. (Collymore & Livingstone 1999 In Press) About 3,200 residents now live on a crescent of land at the very north of the 39-square-miles (63-square-kilometer) island. Most of the other 8000 people who lived here until 1995 intend to return after the volcano calms, but volcanologists are unsure how long this might be. Estimates range from 3 years to 50 years. Figure 5 shows the distribution of the population as at December 1997. Figure 5: The Island of Monserrat and the Soufriere Hills Volcano, December 1997 Figure 6: Monserrat The most recent major eruption of the volcano was on December 26, 1997. As the southwestern side of the dome collapsed, a pyroclastic flow (a cloud of ash, rock, and superheated gases) raced down the mountainside to the sea at more than 100 miles (161 kilometers) per hour. Villages such as St. Patrick's - long since evacuated - were destroyed, and the delta formed at the mouth of the White River by previous ash flows grew even larger. Six months earlier, similar flows down valleys to the east had reached the airport and killed 20 people who had ignored evacuation orders. So far, these have been the fatalities from Montserrat's recent volcano. However, hot rock is not the only danger to those who live on Monserrat. The ash is carried by the trade winds across Monserrat and to neighboring islands such as Saba, St. Kitts, and St. Maarten. The ash has closed Monsettat airport

and sometimes forces the neighboring airports on Guadeloupe and Antigua to close. Furthermore, breathing the ash can cause a deadly disease called silicosis, which thickens lung tissue and causes severe shortness of breath. Doctors recommend that Montserratians wear dust masks when the air carries ash. The social and economic structure of the island have also been severely damaged, not least by the fall in population of over 65% in a three year period. However, disaster management for those remaining is also difficult since the island is only 17 km long and 8 km wide, with its most northern point about 13 km from the volcano. This small size limits the options for relocation of the population and infrastructure to safer areas. In addition, the only airport on the island ceased to be usable after 25 June 1997 and now only an emergency jetty is available for communication.

Earthquakes Earthquakes have been a persistent natural hazard resulting in disasters at various times in the region. Fatalities and great losses of property have accompanied several of the earthquakes. Major disasters occurred in Jamaica (1692, 1907), Cape Haitien (1842) and Pointe-a-Pitre (1843), as shown in Table 3. Each event resulted in large losses of life and major damage to property. While not as recurrent as hurricanes, earthquakes do pose a serious threat to the Caribbean region. Table 3: Historic earthquake Disasters in the West Indies Event location Date Fataliti

es Percentage of population

Property losses

Azua, Dom. Rep 1691 Town ruined Jamaica 1692 4,000* 62 3/4 of houses

destroyed Haiti 1751 Port-au-Prince

destroyed Azua, Dom. Rep 1751 All houses destroyedSantiago, Cuba 1766 City destroyed Port-au-Prince and Leogane, Haiti

1770 250 N/A Destroyed

Martinique 1839 387 N/A FFr 4,700,00 Cap. Haitien 1842 5,000 50 Destroyed Santiado de loss Caballeros, Dom.

1842 300 13 Destroyed

Rep Port de Paix, Haiti 1842 200 7 Destroyed Pointe-a-Pitre, Guadeloupe

1843 5,000 25

Kingston, Jamaica 1907 600 1.5 £2,000,000 Puerto Rico 1918 100 £4,000,000 Dom. Rep. 1946 75 20,000 homelessTOTAL 15,912(*) Including about 2,000 from epidemic as a direct consequence of the earthquake. Source: Tomblin (1981)

Floods In more recent times the disharmony between human uses of the environment, especially landuse, and natural systems has resulted in repeated flooding in Jamaica (1979, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988), Barbados (1970, 1984, 1986, 1988) and Trinidad (1988). Run off from areas where natural vegetation has been removed for roadways, farm fields, urban structures, and other uses, may exceed the capacity of the local drainage pattern to accommodate the increased water. When that happens, the local vicinity may be flooded, or the water will rush down slope to flood lower lying areas. (Collymore 1992)

Drought Drought as evidenced in St. Vincent in the 1970s and Antigua in the 1980s is another natural hazard that afflicts the islands. The balance between water availability and water use is often very delicate in an island environment and when it is disturbed by periods when precipitation is less than normal, the result is drought, affecting both agricultural users and potable water for human consumption. Such droughts here, as elsewhere, may become an economic as well as social disaster.

Economic Impact of Disasters in the Caribbean The economic development of the region has been derailed oftentimes in the past by the impact of hazards. The scenarios that follow serve to highlight the impact of specific occurrences. It should be noted that the impacts of natural disasters become potentially larger as the processes of urbanization and general development continue in the region. (Collymore, McDonald & Brown, 1993)

Hurricane David: Dominica, 1979

Hurricane David struck Dominica on August 29, 1979, seriously damaging 50 per cent of the island's 16,000 houses; 2,000 of which were completely destroyed. Approximately two-thirds of the island's 80,000 population was left homeless. Nearly all the school buildings were badly damaged and an estimated Eastern Caribbean (EC) $6M (US $2.2 millions) was required to rebuild or repair 64 schools. The Princess Margaret Hospital in the capital Roseau, lost roofs from almost all of its buildings. The main port in Woodbridge Bay was badly damaged and required a major reconstruction effort costing EC$10.8 millions. The selected economic indicators shown in Table 4 reflect the long term impact of Hurricane David on the island's economy. Up to 1983, agriculture and fishing had not regained the share of gross domestic product they held in 1978. Exports declined drastically in 1979, whilst GDP per capita in 1979-1980 fell to approximately 20 percent of the 1978 level. Table 4: Selected Economic Indicators, Dominica: 1978-83 Selected Indicator 197

8197

9198

0198

1198

2 198

3 Gross Domestic Product 102 81 88 100 103 107 Agriculture/Fishing 41.0 26.0 24.5 38.3 31.4 33.3 Mining/Construction 6.4 7.2 11.7 12.7 10.4 10.3 Manufacturing 5.5 4.5 5.0 5.4 8.0 8.2 Wholesale/Retail Trade 10.8 7.1 9.4 10.6 12.0 11.0 Hotels/Restaurant 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Total Exports 42.9 25.4 26.3 50.9 66.0 74.2 Total Imports 76.8 59.9 128. 136. 128. 121.GDP Per Capita (EC) 1243 975 1047 1190 1212 1230 Change in Consumer Price Index

+9.3 +34.1

+21.4

+8.1 +4.1 +2.7

Source: Annual Reports of UN Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean

All sectors of Dominica's economy were seriously affected in the disaster, but the major damage was to agriculture and the infrastructure of roadways, power lines, communications, and public services. Estimated costs of reconstruction was estimated to be EC $64.3 millions allocated as shown in Table 5. Table 5: Estimated cost of reconstruction in Dominica after Hurricane David, 1979 Category EC$ Million*

Housing 5.3Water and Sewerage 2.3Schools 2.4Industry and Tourism 5.2Public Buildings 1.4Hospitals and Clinics 1.2Port and Port Buildings 7.8Telephones 3.0Airport Buildings 0.1Electricity 5.1Agriculture 20.3Roads and Bridges 10.1Total 64.3Source: Wason (1984). *US$1 = EC $2.7

Hurricane Allen: Saint Lucia, 1980 On August 4, 1980, Hurricane Allen passed 40 miles off the southern tip of Saint Lucia. Winds of between 75 mph and 105 mph lashed the entire island. Six persons died as a result of the hurricane and an estimated 9,600 were displaced. Some 1,576 houses were damaged, of which 577 were totally destroyed or non-repairable. Crops losses were particularly heavy, being estimated at EC $69M (US$25.5M). The island's banana crop which generally accounts for 80 per cent of the annual agricultural output, was 90 per cent destroyed. Consequently, there was a decline in agriculture's contribution to gross domestic product from 15 per cent in 1979 to 12 per cent in 1980 and 9 per cent in 1981. The annual change in the island's gross domestic product (GDP) fell from 3.7 per cent in 1979 to 0.8 per cent in 1980 and did not attain the 1979 level of growth until 1983. The total damage was estimated to be US $87M.

Flooding: Jamaica, 1986 Floods have increased as a hazard in the region. Flooding from storms other than hurricanes has not been as major, but it does result in loss of life, economic disruption and social dislocation. The "June rains" which affected Jamaica in 1986 provided a lucid example of the destructive potential of this hazard. The agricultural sector in Jamaica was severely affected by the flood of 1986. Island-wide damage to the sector was estimated at Jamaican $124M (US $24.5). Damage was done to 17,600 acres of crops valued at J $116M (US $21.1).

Livestock losses which included chickens and fish were estimated at J $7.6M (US $1.4). Infrastructure was extensively damaged, with over 300 roads being washed out or blocked with debris. The cost of reopening and rehabilitating roadways alone was put at J $18.1M (US $3.3). Fifteen bridges were affected and required J$7.0M (US$1.0) to restore them to normal condition. Forty-nine people lost their lives, 2,000 had to be evacuated and 40,000 were directly affected. During the first two days after the disaster over 100,000 people were without potable water. (Collymore 1992)

Hurricane Hugo: 1989 Hurricane Hugo affected five of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) Member and Associate Member states, ranging geographically from Dominica and Montserrat in the south to the British Virgin Islands to the north. Within the broad range were St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda. All had been experiencing high rates of economic growth, both in the short (1989-88) and longer terms (1980-1988) as shown in Table 6. The high growth rates were attributed to a surge in tourism. Dominica and St Kitts and Nevis had undergone growth in both agriculture and tourism. Hurricane Hugo resulted in severe economic damage to both these important elements in the Caribbean economies. Table 7 presents estimates of damage to the region's productive sectors and infrastructure, which was in excess of EC $856.9M (US $317.4). If damage to housing were included, the total estimates for repair would have increased by more than 30 per cent to over EC $1.114B (US $412M). The total rehabilitation costs from Hugo are shown in Table 8. Table 6: Short and Long Term Growth Rates in the OECS, 1980-88 Percentage

Growth in GDP at Factor Cost 1986 - 1988

Average Growth 1980-1988

Population 1988

Dominica 6.84 6.80 5.60 4.7 77,900 St Kitts-Nevis 6.33 6.77 4.73 5.3 45,000 Antigua & Barbuda 8.37 8.76 7.56 6.5 78,500 Montserrat 5.78 11.5

312.4 4.9 12,000

British Virgin Islands 4.92 15.10

10.0 5.0 12,000

Source: UNDP (1989) Table 7: Hurricane Hugo damage assessment OECS states

Dominica

St Kitts-Nevis

Antigua &

Barbuda

Mont-serrat

British Virgin Island

s

Total

EC $ MILLION Agriculture 49.1 13.0 4.9 10.5 2.3 79.8Fisheries 1.0 9.6 4.3 5.5 1.1 21.5Other sectors (Infrastructure and other)*

15.0 53.4 36.8 585.0 43.9 755.6

TOTAL 65.1 76.0 46.0 601.0 47.3 856.9Source: UNDP (1989) *Excluding housing. If housing were included, it would result in increasing the total value of the damage appreciably, probably by about 30 per cent to over EC$1.114 billion (US$412M). Although the rehabilitation requirements could not accurately be assessed in a two month period, preliminary estimates of these requirements, excluding housing, amounted to about EC$410M (US$158). This is illustrated in Table 8. Table 8: Rehabilitation Requirements in OECS Member States*

Dominic

a St Kitts-

Nevis Antigu

a & Barbud

a

Montserrat

British

Virgin Island

s

Total

EC $ MILLION Agriculture

29.1 3.5 1.42 7.3 n.a 80.50

Fisheries .5 2.2 1.40 4.8 n.a 48.40Other sectors (Infrastructure and other)

15.0 20.0 n.a 273.1 n.a 60.70

TOTAL 44.60 25.70 2.82 285.20 0.00 358.32

Source: UNDP (1989)

*Estimated on the basis of rehabilitation requirements averaging 47.5 percent of damage assessments for the three member states for which data are available.

These estimates of requirements were made for a one-year period and were designed to reactivate the productive sectors of agriculture and fisheries and to replace or repair damaged infrastructure. They exclude costs in terms of the impact on economic growth and development.

Since 1989, the devastation and dislocation caused by hurricanes have been frequent. In the decades of the ninety-nineties, the English speaking Caribbean islands were impacted by at least 10 systems half of which were major hurricanes, that is 110 mph and above (Table 9).

TABLE 9: HAZARDS IMPACTING ENGLISH SPEAKING STATES IN THE CARIBBEAN: 1988 - 1999

HAZARD

YEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATED COST COUNTRIES AFFECTED Hurricane Hugo

1989 Category 4/5 US $281.1 M Antigua & Barbuda British Virgin

Islands, Dominica, Montserrat Hurricane Andrew 1992 Category 4 US $250 M Bahamas Tropical Storm Debby

1994 Less than 74 mph Saint Lucia

Iris/Marilyn/Luis

1995 Iris - Category 3/4

Marilyn - Category 1 Luis - Category 3

US $688.2 M Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Montserrat, St Kitts-Nevis

Hurricane Georges

1998 Category 3 US $442.6 M *

*Figures for Dominica not included Antigua and Barbuda Dominica, St Kitts-Nevis

Hurricane Lenny

1999 Category 4/5

US $263.9M Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St Kitts-Nevis, Saint Lucia St Vincent & Grenadines

Hurricane Keith 2000 Category 4 US $274.5M Belize Hurricane Iris 2001 Category 4 US $500M Belize Volcano

1995 to present

1995 - Negative growth rate of -7.61% 1996 - Negative growth rate of -20.15%

Montserrat

Landslides

1997 Layou Dominica

Hurricane Gilbert 1988 Category 4 Estimated losses US $1500 million. Widespread devastation.

Jamaica

Source: Collymore 2001

The cost of these impacts is much higher than the damage estimates indicate. In addition to the physical losses, there are other direct and indirect losses associated with business interruption, revenue collection, reduced exports, relief costs and reconstruction. The records of the Caribbean Development Bank show that between 1975 and 1997 more than US $1 billion were dispersed to Caribbean Governments for rehabilitation support (Table 10).

Table 10: Natural Disaster Rehabilitation Projects – Portfolio Review as at 1997-12-31

Country Project Title Borrower Loan No, Approval Date Date of Agreement

Conditions Precedent Satisfied

Actual FDD Total

Approved (US$’000)

Status

AG Hurricane Damage Rehab Gov’t 05/SFR-AG 07-Dec-95 05-Mar-96 03-Feb-97 - 1269 Under implementation

AN Housing Rehabilitation Gov’t 01/SFR-OR-AN 29/30-Jun-74 29-Apr-75 - 30-Apr-75 370 Loan fully disbursed

BVI Housing Rehabilitation DBVI 06/SFR-OR-BVI 07-Dec-89 09-Mar-90 14-Aug-90 09-Jul-91 3599 Loan fully disbursed

DO Housing Rehabilitation Gov’t 25/SFT-DO 18-Dec-80 02-Feb-81 25-Sept-81 03-Feb-82 990 Loan fully disbursed

DO Emergency Banana Rehabilitation Gov’t 50/SFT-DO 06-Dec-90 08-Mar-91 07-Jun-91 24-Jul-91 1590 Loan fully disbursed

DO Hurricane Rehab (3rd Loan) Gov’t 59/SFR-DO 07-Dec-95 04-Apr-96 21-Oct-96 10-Dec-96 3550 Loan fully disbursed

JA Flood Rehabilitation Gov’t 1/SFR-OR-J 23-Aug-79 14-Dec-79 02-Jan-81 05-Mar-80 5714 Loan fully disbursed JA Hurricane Rehabilitation Gov’t 03/SFR-OR-J 18-Dec-80 23-Apr-81 11-May-81 18-Jun-81 4996 Loan fully disbursed

JA Second Hurricane Rehabilitation Gov’t 05-/SFR-J 08-Dec-88 23-Jan-89 11-Aug-89 22-Dec-89 15000 Under implementation

SKN Hurricane Rehabilitation Gov’t 28/SFR-ST.K 07-Dec-89 10-Jan-90 06-Sept-90 05-Jun-92 2203 Loan fully disbursed

SKN 2nd Hurricane Rehabilitation Gov’t 37/SFR-ST.K 07-Dec-95 20-Mar-96 06-Jun-96 20-Jan-97 3181 Under implementation

SL Storm Rehabilitation Gov’t 45/SFR-ST.L 08-Dec-94 16-Jan-95 02-Feb-95 25-Jul-95 5000 Loan fully disbursed SVG Banana Rehabilitation Gov’t 44/SFR-ST.V 08-Sept-86 30-Jan-87 30-Mar-87 25-Apr-87 978 Loan fully disbursed

SVG Restoration of Storm and Flood Damage Gov’t 43/SFR-ST.K 11-Dec-86 28-Jan-87 25-Feb-87 12-Apr-88 463 Loan fully disbursed

SVG Emergency Banana Rehabilitation Gov’t 47/SFR-ST.K 14 Dec-87 05-Aug-88 26-Oct-88 24-Dec-90 1042 Loan fully disbursed

Source: CDB 1988

Since the articulation of a Caribbean Development Bank National Disaster Management Strategy in 1998, there has been a growing demand for the reconstruction and rehabilitation facility of the Bank.

Vulnerability to Natural Disasters People often become more vulnerable to natural hazards as a result of their own activities, or the activities and policies of the government. Frequently, substantial economic and social costs accrue because of indifference to the risks of natural disasters, or the lack of any clearly formulated environmental risk assessment programs that would provide people with an idea of their vulnerability. Within the Caribbean island states, There are development activities aimed at meeting social-economic aspirations of the population, but which ignore analysis of ways in which risk from natural disasters is affected. Development activities aimed at meeting the socio-economic aspirations of the population may place them at greater risk of natural disasters than before. A number of examples can illustrate this point. (Collymore 1989) • The Government of Jamaica is expanding its lucrative Blue Mountain coffee

crop and the project has decimated the forest cover, resulting in a notable increase in soil erosion. The increase in both flooding and drought in the Liguanea Plains is related to these major change in land cover.

• In Barbados, the modernization of some farming practices has resulted in the destruction of soil retaining barriers, the filling up of natural water retention ponds with soil that results in reduced infiltration and increased runoff. The result is an increase in downstream flooding.

• Higher banana prices and a newly instituted crop insurance program has farmers in Saint Lucia encroaching on marginal farming areas. Because of the narrow margins for profit, farmers are willing to forego disaster mitigation in favour of short term vulnerability. However, if the land use practice becomes part of the general pattern, their susceptibility to disaster will remain.

• Much of the housing design and construction in the region does not incorporate adjustment for high winds. An examination of failed dwellings revealed that most of those badly damaged have lightweight roofing of 26 gauge, galvanized or bitumen fibre on relatively shallow pitches of 15 percent or less and a long span. The vernacular dwellings, which generally fare better even when lighter roof structures are used, are constructed with a high pitch, 40 percent, gable or hipped roofs and short span. Yet, modern builders continue to use the light materials without recognizing the need for more careful detailing of the structural systems.

Vulnerability Disasters, then, are a result of change in the physical system that may be complicated by the inability of the social system to respond. The vulnerability to risks from natural hazards may be lessened by the adoption and implementation of policies to mitigate hazards and reduce the negative effects of natural extremes on the population risk. Social values also come into play when considering vulnerability, and during the 1970s there emerged in some parts of the world a belief that people must learn to live more closely in harmony with the natural environment, and that our activities should embody this harmony. Any hazard management system should include the ability to: • anticipate rather than suffer consequences; • reduce the hazard or the vulnerability of the population; and • have a minimum burden on social resources and opportunities. In the Caribbean region, the challenges of nature and the uses of technology are increasing the exposure of people to risk. This poses a dilemma for governments, which should seek the fullest protection for people and property. New technologies make economic development possible, but they can also create new hazards that pose costly trade-offs in terms of environmental quality and social and economic benefits. The situation is further confounded by the fact that under normal circumstances few citizens or businesses place a high priority on hazard management. However, in the event of disasters, these individuals and business leaders expect governments to manage them effectively, but they seldom associate long-term planning with effective disaster management.

Responses to Vulnerability and Mitigation A central point to be made is that establishing a disaster plan requires the consideration of science underlying natural hazard as well as the human response. The disaster plan must include a wide range of institutional and structural considerations. Part of the consideration is the long term nature of disaster planning. Following are several recommended activities essential to achieving long term plans for dealing with natural disasters in the Caribbean Region. They include both policy and action oriented steps, and most generally a combination of both. (Collymore 2000, Collymore et al 1995, Bisek, Jones, et al 2001)

Hazard Mapping and Risk Analysis Hazard mapping is a critical step in determining the risk to populations, infrastructure and economic activities. Risk analysis information can be used in development control to guide investments away from high risk areas or to indicate the kinds of mitigative measures necessary to reduce potential losses. A

clear delineation of the hazards and their distribution in the Caribbean does not exist although some individual countries such as Jamaica have undertaken such mapping. The map for Jamaica is illustrated in Figure 7. Figure 7: Flooding and Landslide Map from Jamaica Risk analysis is also necessary for planning disaster response scenarios. “If an earthquake of a certain magnitude occurs, then the response should be ....”. Community emergency managers utilizing this kind of information have a better concept of the response requirements for varying magnitudes of the hazards facing them. Whilst the need for hazard mapping and risk analysis exists in the region, it is only beginning to receive promotion and focus at the national level.

Incentives for Incorporating Mitigation Practices Public policy and legislation provide little or no incentive for individuals or businesses to pursue loss reduction measures in their regular activities. Two possible programs have been proposed for consideration. 1. Differential Property Tax. Individual home owners and businesses utilizing

recommended building codes in the construction of their properties should be allowed property tax discounts. Where the development is taking place in a designated high risk area, the necessary mitigative strategies consistent with the level of risk must be incorporated in the building plan. This might include hazard proof areas within the building, evacuation measures, and disaster response mechanisms at the site.

2. Variable Insurance Premiums. Within the Caribbean, insurance has been used as the principle mitigation instrument. It is generally agreed that premiums are not sufficiently sensitive to spatial distribution of risks or the utilization of loss reduction measures. Premiums on structures that meet code and avoid high risk environments should be lower than other areas. The insurance industry of the region must examine ways in which insurance premiums can be used to promote good development practices. For example, differential insurance premiums might be based on locational risks relative to natural hazards as shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Photographs of two similar buildings, one on a steep embankment subject to landslide and the other a safe distance from the potential landslide zone. 3. Inter-Governmental Building Codes and Standards. Given the hazardousness of the regional environment, there is an urgent need for national/international codes and standards for critical facilities and public assembly buildings. A Caribbean Building Code has been drafted, but is yet to be adopted formally by the national authorities of the various countries. In using building codes and standards, issuing licenses, monitoring and enforcement will

have to be strengthened. A regional program for strengthening the Building Inspectorate is therefore highly recommended. This program should reflect a partnership among the government, the insurance industry and housing financing institutions. 4. Recovery Planning. Many of the critical assets of the region have very high exposure to risks which take considerable resources to mitigate. They include schools, hospitals and old stock housing which are very expensive to upgrade, but are at high risk of major damage during a natural disaster. The importance of those assets makes it imperative that some, or all, of the existing high risk structures, beginning with public buildings and facilities of importance during time of disaster, such as schools and hospitals be strengthened and protected. 5. Promotion of Comprehensive Integrated Disaster Planning. Since the Caribbean is subject to so many natural hazards, the people of the area should be made more aware of their own role in their protection. National disaster organizations need adequate resources and authority to effect inter-agency disaster response coordination. Currently, the capabilities of national disaster organisations are limited almost exclusively to dealing with the hurricane hazards. Inter-agency collaboration that looks across the hazard agenda including both natural hazards and those initiated by people such as oil spills and explosions must be promoted. 6. Institutionalized Disaster Training & Research. Disaster training research in the Caribbean Region, for the most part, is unstructured and uncoordinated. Efforts must be made to utilize educational and vocational institutions to prepare both policy makers and citizens to prepare for and respond in case of disasters. One way to achieve this would be for the University of the West Indies to establish an academic preparation program on disaster management, training and research. 7. Enhancement of Monitoring and Early Warning Systems. The Emergency Telecommunications Systems and Procedures serves the region and has the basic infrastructure for emergency communications. However, these have not been used effectively in local districts within countries. Upgrading data access and transmission capabilities will contribute towards an improved early warning system for the meteorological hazards. 8. Regional Focal Point for Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM). The region needs to give an existing institution the mandate to promote Comprehensive Disaster Management and coordinating the various elements of its agenda. This will include at least the following activities. • the establishment down to the community level of contingency plans based on

hazard mapping and risk assessment; • the education of a generation of the population in attitudes, values and skills

related to disaster prevention and preparation;

• the renewal or upgrading of the entire housing stock and infrastructure of the area to standards that will resist the earthquake and hurricane threats;

• the adaptation of the economy to disaster resistant activities; • the moving of human settlements away from high risk areas; • the restoration of ecological balance and the regenerative capacity of

ecological systems; and • the establishment of disaster response organizations at community level

throughout the area.

Summary This chapter has presented an overview of the hazards which face the island states of the Caribbean, the effects of disasters and the high levels of vulnerability of their peoples. It has presented and described improvements at the national level, but there is still considerable need for concerted regional action. The impact of past disasters on the small island states of the region are often disproportionate due to a number of factors. These include: • dependence on single facilities such as hospitals, ports and airports; • number and diversity of hazard to which they are exposed; • lack of economic diversity; • size of the islands - a major impact can be national in scope; and • the heavy investment in high risk coastal zones without appropriate mitigation

measures. Linking disasters to environment and development necessitates taking the public policy position that a primary cause of disasters in developing countries is poverty amidst the quest for economic modernization. This cause-and-effect relationship between disasters and the social and economic development of society cannot be ignored. In suggesting responses to natural hazards, we have implied a risk mitigation and implementation process. The process the affected groups and links mitigation directly into the planning process and allows for hazard risks to be evaluated and responses formulated. That social dislocation and economic lag of Caribbean societies results in part from the impact of natural and human induced hazards. Needed is a willingness of the decision-makers to accord natural hazards the significance in the development planning process which they unquestionably deserve.

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