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Página 3
3.4 3.23.5
2.4 2.5 2.5
0.91.5
1.82.1 2.2
2.5
0.2
-2.5
-0.5
1.9 1.9 2.02.4 2.5
2.8
7.36.9
6.2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016
USA Eurozone MEX BRA CHI PER CHN
World Developed LatAm and China
Página 4
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
23
Ja
n-1
2
23
Fe
b-1
2
23
Ma
r-1
2
23
Ap
r-1
2
23
Ma
y-1
2
23
Ju
n-1
2
23
Ju
l-1
2
23
Au
g-1
2
23
Se
p-1
2
23
Oct-
12
23
No
v-1
2
23
De
c-1
2
23
Ja
n-1
3
23
Fe
b-1
3
23
Ma
r-1
3
23
Ap
r-1
3
23
Ma
y-1
3
23
Ju
n-1
3
23
Ju
l-1
3
23
Au
g-1
3
23
Se
p-1
3
23
Oct-
13
23
No
v-1
3
23
De
c-1
3
23
Ja
n-1
4
23
Fe
b-1
4
23
Ma
r-1
4
23
Ap
r-1
4
23
Ma
y-1
4
23
Ju
n-1
4
23
Ju
l-1
4
23
Au
g-1
4
23
Se
p-1
4
23
Oct-
14
23
No
v-1
4
23
De
c-1
4
23
Ja
n-1
5
23
Fe
b-1
5
23
Ma
r-1
5
23
Ap
r-1
5
23
Ma
y-1
5
23
Ju
n-1
5
23
Ju
l-1
5
23
Au
g-1
5
23
Se
p-1
5
23
Oct-
15
Developed Emerging
Página 5
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Last
Probability of Fed rate first hike in Dec-15 (Left axis) Unemployment rate (Right axis) Core Inflation (Right axis)
Página 6
9987
102118
132 138
266
164
105 106 10494
81 8376 76
97 10185
52 5057
44 44
102 98105
124134 134
162147
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ma
r-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Se
p-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
La
st
Ma
r-1
4
Jun-1
4
Se
p-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
La
st
Ma
r-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Se
p-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
La
st
Ma
r-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Se
p-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
La
st
Embi ColCap Brent Exchange rate
Página 7
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19
Brent WTI Soybean Cooper
Página 8
2,629
3,231
4,692
12,436
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total year
Página 9
5.2
3.0
4.3
6.4
5.6
4.1
5.5
4.8
4.1
4.9
4.04.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Current account deficit Trade Deficit FDI
2014 2015 2016 2017
Página 10
13.9 14.1 13.7 14.513.6
3.0 2.6 2.6 1.82.1
2.2 2.6 2.6 2.82.8
19.1 19.2 18.9 19.118.5
0
4
8
12
16
20
MFMP15 Oct-15 MFMP15 Oct-15
2014 2015* 2016*
Operation Investment Intertest payments
Página 11
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
oct-
99
oct-
00
oct-
01
oct-
02
oct-
03
oct-
04
oct-
05
oct-
06
oct-
07
oct-
08
oct-
09
oct-
10
oct-
11
oct-
12
oct-
13
oct-
14
oct-
15
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Oct-
14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
Ja
n-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Oct-
16
Ja
n-1
7
Ap
r-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Oct-
17
Ja
n-1
8
Ap
r-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Oct-
18
Exchange rate Annual average
Página 13
4.4
2.73.2
3.9
8.4
5.5
2.7
5.4
1.6
-1.3-0.9
1.6
10.4
8.1
5.8
8.77.9
2.1
6.9
9.4
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15* 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15* 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15* 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15* 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15*
Economic monitoring index Retail sales Industrial production Cement sales Concrete production
Página 14
-1
5
10
15
20
25
30
8
10
12
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
Unemployment rate (Lef axis) Fear of losing employment (Right axis) Households confidence (Right axis)
Página 15
6.6
4.0
4.94.6
2.72.4
9.0
4.95.2
6.7
2.0 2.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP Growth Internal demanda growth
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Mining
Public administration, socialsecurity, health and education
Transport, storateand communication
Wholesale, retail trade,restaurants and hotels
Electricity, Gas, Water
Financial and business activities
Agriculture
Construction
Industry
2015 2016
Página 17
2.9
1.7
2.5
3.9
5.3
4.7
6.76.9
3.5
1.7
4.0
6.6
4.0
4.94.6
2.72.4
3.5
3.9
4.5 4.5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Importance of civil works GDP GDO except civil works
Página 18
5
10
15
20
dic
-01
jun
-02
dic
-02
jun
-03
dic
-03
jun
-04
dic
-04
jun
-05
dic
-05
jun
-06
dic
-06
jun
-07
dic
-07
jun
-08
dic
-08
jun
-09
dic
-09
jun
-10
dic
-10
jun
-11
dic
-11
jun
-12
dic
-12
jun
-13
dic
-13
jun
-14
dic
-14
jun
-15
dic
-15
jun
-16
dic
-16
jun
-17
dic
-17
jun
-18
dic
-18
Unemployment rate Seasonally adjusted
5.6%
4.1%
3.9%
3.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
en
e-1
5
feb
-15
ma
r-1
5
ab
r-1
5
ma
y-1
5
jun-1
5
jul-1
5
ag
o-1
5
se
p-1
5
oct-
15
Dec 2015 12-months ahead Dec 2016 24-months ahead
8.8
4.3
6.4
3.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
oct-
13
dic
-13
feb
-14
ab
r-1
4
jun-1
4
ag
o-1
4
oct-
14
dic
-14
feb
-15
ab
r-1
5
jun-1
5
ag
o-1
5
oct-
15
Food Non-tradable Tradable Regulated
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
dic
-13
ma
r-1
4
jun-1
4
se
p-1
4
dic
-14
ma
r-1
5
jun-1
5
se
p-1
5
dic
-15
ma
r-1
6
jun-1
6
se
p-1
6
dic
-16
ma
r-1
7
jun-1
7
se
p-1
7
dic
-17
MoM (←) YoY (→)
NOV-16
2015: 5,9%
2016: 3,7%
2017: 3,3%
Página 22
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
dic
-11
ma
r-1
2
jun-1
2
se
p-1
2
dic
-12
ma
r-1
3
jun-1
3
se
p-1
3
dic
-13
ma
r-1
4
jun-1
4
se
p-1
4
dic
-14
ma
r-1
5
jun-1
5
se
p-1
5
dic
-15
ma
r-1
6
jun-1
6
se
p-1
6
dic
-16
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
en
e-0
3
en
e-0
4
en
e-0
5
en
e-0
6
en
e-0
7
en
e-0
8
en
e-0
9
en
e-1
0
en
e-1
1
en
e-1
2
en
e-1
3
en
e-1
4
en
e-1
5
MPR (deflated with headline CPI)
MPR (deflated with core CPI)
MPR(deflated with 12-month ahead CPI expectations)
Página 23
Colombia enfrenta bien el choque petrolero y permanecerá en tasas de crecimiento moderadas con un mejor perfil de crecimiento
2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP (% YoY) 4.9 4.6 2.7 2.4
Private Consumption (% YoY) 3.8 4.4 2.8 2.3
Public Consumption (% YoY) 9.2 6.2 2.0 0.2
Fixed Invesment (% YoY) 6.0 10.9 2.7 5.1
Domestic Demand (% YoY)
Inflation (% a/a, eop) 1.9 3.7 5.9 3.7
Exchange rate (vs. USD, eop) 1934 2344 2965 2700
Exchange rate (vs. USD, average) 1869 2001 2711 2800
Interest rate BanRep (%, eop) 3.25 4.50 5.50 5.00
Interest rate DTF (% eop) 4.06 4.34 5.35 5.27
Fiscal balance (% GDP) -2.4 -2.4 -3.1 -3.6
Current account (% GDP) -3.3 -5.2 -6.4 -5.5
Source: DANE, Banco de la República, Ministerio de Hacienda and BBVA Research Colombia
Colombia
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