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Singularity University
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Innovation & Disruption on
the Road to ABUNDANCE
2014 Michigan CEO Summit– November ‘14
Live Tweeting? I’m @PeterDiamandis
Peter H. Diamandis, MD
We are heading towards a world of Abundance…
Why?
ABUNDANCE:
The Future Is Better Than You Think #1 on Amazon; #2 on New York Times
AMYGDALA ALL VISUAL INFORMATION
ALL AUDIO INFORMATION
(1) Global Income
(2) Lifespan
(3) Food
(4) Energy
(5) Transportation
(6) Communications
(1) Global Income
(2) Lifespan
(3) Food
(4) Energy
(5) Transportation
(6) Communications
Evidence for Abundance
The End of Poverty (June 2013)
The Decline of Violence
“In primitive societies
15% of people died
violently; now 0.03% do…
“Violence is 1/500th of what
it used to be.”
- Prof. Steven Pinker, Harvard
Re-defining “Poverty”…
‣99% have electricity, water, flushing toilets & a refrigerator
‣95% have a television
‣88% have a telephone
‣70% have a car & air conditioning
In America today, those classified as poor:
Source: The Rational Optimist, Matt Ridley
This is far superior to Ford or Vanderbilt. We are redefining what we call ‘poor’.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
FORCE: Rising Billion
2000 2010 2020
GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS)
6%
23%
66%
Global Population
Internet Users
3 BILLION NEW MINDS
What will 3 Billion New Minds…
create
consume
discover
desire invent
…Tens of trillions of annual PP
…Greatest period of Innovation (ever)
(1) Exponential Technologies
(2) BOLD Mindset
SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY
NASA – AUTODESK – GOOGLE – CISCO– NOKIA – GENENTECH Mountain View, California
9 10 + Impact
www.SingularityU.org
What does EXPONENTIAL growth feel like?
Take 30 paces… LINEAR
01 02
03 04
05 06
07 08
09 10
11 12
13
30 meters
01 02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256
… 1,073,741,824 meters
26X around the Earth!
Take 30 steps…
EXPONENTIAL
Disruptive Stress
/Opportunity
EXPONENTIAL LINEAR
1996
MarketCap: $28B
Employees: 140,000
2012
Bankrupt
Employees: 17,000
April 2012
MarketCap: $1B
Employees: 13
“The New Kodak Moment”
In 10 years, it’s predicted that
40% of the Fortune 500 Companies
will no longer exist.
* Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company April 2011, page 121.
The average lifespan of a company listed in the
S&P 500 has significantly decreased:
• In the 1920’s = 67 years
• Today = 15 years
- Richard Foster, Yale University
“I’ve got an Idea!”
“I run a $Billion company.”
• Youtube
• Dropbox
• Uber
• Oculus VR
• Snapchat
• AirBnb
Ca
lcu
lati
on
s/S
ec
pe
r $
10
00
co
mp
ute
r
FORCE: EXPONTENTIALLY GROWING TECH
The exponential growth of
computing on a Logarithmic Plot Calc./second for a $1000 laptop vs. Time
Calc
ula
tion
s p
er
Se
co
nd p
er
$1
00
0
Year
2
2
2023
2050
2010
“6Ds” – Exponential Framework
Digitized (Information Tech)
Deceptive
Dematerialize
Demonetize
Democratize
Disruptive
Dematerialization
20 Years later…
All of these fit in
your pocket…
Demonetization
Classifieds
Long Distance
Research/Libraries
Book Stores
Hotel Chains
Taxi Fleets
Democratization
African Mobile Growth: >1B by 2016
Technologies Riding Moore’s Law
1. Infinite Computing
2. Sensor & Networks
3. Robotics
4. 3D Printing
5. Synthetic Biology
6. Digital Medicine
7. Nanomaterials
8. Artificial Intelligence
“Watson vs. Humans on Jeopardy”
Artificial Intelligence
Infinite Computing •2,880 POWER7 processor cores;
•16 Terabytes of RAM
•200 million pages of content (Wikipedia)
•Process 1 million books per second
CLOUD
Sensor Explosion
1976 – 1st Digital Camera
0.01 MP / 3.75 lbs / $10K 2014 – Digital Camera
>10 MP / 0.03 lbs / $10
1000x Resolution
1000x Lighter
1000x Cheaper
1,000,000,000 x better
1 BILLION TIMES BETTER 1,000x Resolution & 1,000 lighter & 1,000 cheaper
Steven Sasson
Sensor Explosion
Early Rocket Navigation
Inertial Measurement Unit
1960’s – $ Millions – 50 lbs
Velocity/Orientation/Accel.
Accelerometer: $1
Gyroscope: $3
Molecular Machines
Free & embedded
Sensor Explosion
1st commercial GPS Receiver in 1981
Weight: 53 lbs; Cost: $119,900
Single Chip GPS Receiver
2010; <$5 each
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Robotics- Boston Dynamics / Google
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car
Paradigm Change: Robotics
LIDAR
64 lasers
10 RPM
1.3 mil datapoints or
750 Mbytes/second
Light Detection And Ranging)
LIDAR: Light Detection
& Ranging
Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car
Paradigm Change: Robotics/Sensors
Perfect Knowledge, Anything – Anytime Light Detection And Ranging)
LEO Constellations
~ .5m global resolution
5 Known Constellations
Including Skybox
Quad Copter
~ 1 cm global resolution
Plummeting costs
Solar Powered
Google Glass
~ 1 mm global resolution
3D Printing – A $10 Trillion Industry
3D Printing - Disrupting a $10 Trillion Manufacturing Industry
3D Printing
Ten (10) 3D printed houses
in 24 hrs for <$5K each
>20K VSP surgeries in ‘14
Genome Sequencing & Synthetic Biology
2001 (Sequenced First Human)
$100M & 1 year $1K & minutes
“Making 100 Years
old, the new 60.”
Premier Human
Health Database
Human Genome Metabolomics
Phenotype Data Proteomics
Microbiome Full-body MRI
Four Critical Insights… • 1st Insight: The only constant is change & the rate of
change is increasing.
• 2nd Insight: You either disrupt your own company/products,
or someone else will. Standing still = death.
• 3rd Insight: Competition is no-longer the multinational
overseas. It is the explosion of exponentially empowered
entrepreneurs.
• 4th Insight : Your “Mindset” matters, a lot...
(1) Exponential Technologies
(2) BOLD Mindset
Google’s Moonshot Thinking
Astro Teller – Chief of Moonshots
What is your moonshot?
What is one area of your business
where you should shoot for 10x
growth, rather than 10%?
1. Focus on the user
2. Open will win
3. Ideas come from everywhere
4. Think big, start small
5. Never fail to fail
6. Launch early and iterate
7. Be a platform, float all boats
8. Make it matter
Google’s 8 Innovation Principals
Lockheed Skunk Works
1st Jet (P-80) in 143 days (in 1943). U2. SR-71 Kelly Johnson
Kelly Johnson & GoogleX Rules
(1) Massive Transformative Purpose (MTP):
A Bold, Compelling Vision – “Win over Nazis”
(2) Small Teams: “The # of people connected to the project
should be restricted in an almost vicious manner.”
(3) Extreme Isolation: “Access by outsiders to the project
and its personnel must be strictly controlled.”
(4) Authority & Autonomy: “The Manager must have control
of his program on a day-to-day basis.”
(5) Flexibility: “You must provide a very simple drawing with
great flexibility for making changes.”
(6) Testing & Experimentation: “The contractor must test
product in the initial stages, and final product in flight.”
Kelly Johnson & GoogleX Rules
Billionaire “Thinking Strategies”: Thinking at Scale
1. Passion & Purpose
2. Rapid Experimentation
3. Customer-Centric thinking
4. Risk Mitigation
5. Long-term thinking
6. Optimistic thinking
Thinking at Scale: Passion and Purpose
“I didn’t go into the rocket business, the car
business, or the solar business thinking this is a
great opportunity. I just thought, in order to make a
difference, something needed to be done. I wanted
to have an impact, I wanted to create something
substantially better than what came before.”
- Elon Musk
Thinking at Scale: Experimentation
“The amount of useful invention you do is directly
proportional to the number of experiments you can run
per week per month per year. If you’re going to
increase the number of experiments, you’re also going
to increase the number of failures. You’ve got to be
willing to be misunderstood for long periods of time.”
- Jeff Bezos
Thinking at Scale: Customer-Centric
“How do we decide what’s really important to work
on? I like to call it the ‘toothbrush test’: do you use
it as often as you use your toothbrush? I guess
that’s twice a day. We use Gmail & YouTube much
more than twice a day. Those things are amazing.”
- Larry Page
Thinking at Scale: Risk Mitigation
“Superficially, I think it looks like entrepreneurs
have a high tolerance for risk. But, one of the
most important phrases in my life is ‘protect the
downside.” - Richard Branson
Thinking at Scale: Long-Term Thinking
“ We will continue to make investment decisions in
light of long-term market leadership considerations
rather than short-term profitability considerations or
short-term Wall Street reactions…. we choose to
prioritize growth because we believe that scale is
central to achieving the potential of our business.”
- Jeff Bezos
Thinking at Scale: Optimistic Thinking
“I’m tremendously optimistic, I’m certain that
whatever challenges we take on, we can solve with a
little bit of concerted effort and some good
technology. And that’s an exciting place to be. [It
means] our job is really to make the world better. We
need to get better organized and move a lot faster.”
- Larry Page
www.a360.org – Peter’s Mastermind Program
www.xprize.org – XPRIZE Foundation
www.singularityU.org – Singularity University
For a copy of these slides:
Text your First Name & Email
to: (310) 299-8772