Development of the Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model

Development of the Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model Main Report

Title Development of the Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model Client ENTRO

Project 1206020-000

Reference 1206020-000-VEB-0010

Pages 3

Development of the Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model

Keywords Planning, management, water resources development, hydrology, climate change, agriculture, irrigation, domestic-municipal-industrial water use, river basin simulation model, RIBASIM, Eastern Nile, White Nile, Blue Nile, Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan Summary The ENWSM project aims the development of the Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model (ENWSM), the scenario analysis of the Eastern Nile (EN) basin for a number of identified scenarios, measures and strategies on critical EN issues like water infrastructure development and climate change, the delivery of RIBASIM7 software and the training of ENTRO staff. The ENWSM is a flexible Eastern Nile planning model based on RIBASIM7 which covers the catchments of the main EN basins, including the Blue Nile, Baro-Akobo-Sobat, Tekeze-Setit-Atbara, portions of the White Nile and the Main Nile upstream of the High Aswan Dam including Lake Nasser. This annex contains the ENWSM description. References - Version Date Author Initials Review Initials Approval Initials Oct. 2012 Ir. W.N.M. van der

Krogt, Dr. P. Reggiani ir. J. Vissers

Ir. H.J.M. Ogink State draft This is a draft report, intended for discussion purposes only. No part of this report may be relied upon by either principals or third parties.

1206020-000-VEB-0010, 6 December 2012, draft


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Contents

1 Introduction 1

2 Setup of the ENWSM 3

3 Schematization of the Eastern Nile Water Resources System 6 3.1 Schematization of a river basin 6 3.2 Node and link types 7 3.3 The EN catchment schematization 11 3.4 The EN network schematization 13

4 Operation of the ENWSM 16

5 Illustrative ENWSM simulation cases 18

6 Simulation cases results 21

7 Building modeling capacity at ENTRO 29

8 Literature 33

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Abbreviations/Acronyms ABN Abay-Blue Nile BAS Baro-Akobo-Sobat BASWN Baro-Akobo-Sobat-White Nile CRA Cooperative Regional Assessment DEM Digital Elevation Model DMI Domestic, Municipal and Industrial water DSS Decision Support System EN Eastern Nile ENID Eastern Nile Irrigation and Drainage ENIDS Eastern Nile Irrigation and Drainage Study ENMOS Eastern Nile Multipurpose Options Scoping model ENPM Eastern Nile Planning Model ENPT ENPT Eastern Nile Power Trade ENSAP Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program ENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office ENWSM Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model ESPSI Ethiopia-Sudan Power System Interconnection FAO Food and Agricultural Organization FSL Full supply level GIS Geographical Information System GRD Grand Renaissance Dam HAD High Aswan Dam HPP Hydropower Project IDEN Integrated Development of the Eastern Nile IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ITCZ Inter Tropical Convergence Zone JMP Joint Multipurpose Program MN Main Nile MPP Multipurpose Project MSL Mean Sea Level NBI Nile Basin Initiative NEC National Electricity Corporation NFS Nile Forecast System OSI One System Inventory RIBASIM River Basin Simulation Model RIBASIM7 River Basin Simulation Model Version 7 TLU Tropical Livestock Unit TSA Tekeze-Setit-Atbara USBR United States Bureau of Reclamation USDA United States Department of Agriculture WL Waterloopkundig Laboratorium (Delft Hydraulics)



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E0 Open water evaporation ET0 Reference evapotranspiration

Bcm Billion cubic meter (109 m3) GWh Giga Watt Hour Ha Hectare Km Kilometer Km2 Square kilometer l/p/d Liter per person per day m Meter m3 Cubic meter Mcm Million cubic meter (106 m3) Mha Million hectares (106 ha) mm Millimeter Mm3 Million cubic meter (106 m3) Mm3/yr Million cubic meter per year MW Mega Watt (106 Watt)

The Development of the Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model (ENWSM) reports consists of:

Development of the ENWSM Main report Annex A ENWSM hydrological boundary conditions Annex B ENWSM description Annex C ENWSM data



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1 Introduction

This document comprises the Final Report of Development of the Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model (ENWSM) Project which is a part of the World Bank financed ‘Eastern Nile Planning Model’ (ENPM) Project (Project ID: P 103639). The contract for the ENWSM Project was signed on 25th May 2012 by the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office, ENTRO and Deltares. The aim of the ENWSM Project is: 1. To build a flexible ‘Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model (ENWSM) based on RIBASIM7’, 2. To carry out a simulation analysis of the Eastern Nile (EN) basin for a number of identified

scenarios, measures and strategies on critical EN issues like water infrastructure development and climate change, and

3. To build modeling capacity at ENTRO by classical and on-the-job training. RIBASIM (River Basin Simulation Model) is a generic modeling package for simulating the behavior of river basins under various hydrological conditions. It links hydrological water inputs at various locations with the specific water users in the basin to enable evaluation of a variety of measures related to infrastructure, operational and demand management. In 2007, Deltares developed a river basin simulation model of the entire Nile Basin up to and including High Aswan Dam based on RIBASIM Version 6.33 for present and possible future basin conditions to assess upstream and downstream impacts. The simulations made use of historical runoff series at key locations of the period 1900-2002 based on public domain data mostly derived from the Nile Encyclopedia and FAO evaporation and rainfall normals. Different from before, the ENWSM comprises the Eastern Nile Basin from the White Nile at Mongalla until Lake Nasser, see Figure 1-1. The previous model served as a starting point, but its structure has been fully reviewed and where needed adapted and extended to incorporate the latest developments and plans. This Final Report describes the setup of the ENWSM, the EN river basin catchment and network schematization, the operation of the ENWSM, the illustrative simulation cases and their simulation results. At last the modeling capacity training efforts are outlined. The annexes with detailed description are: A. ENWSM Hydrological boundary conditions. B. ENWSM description. C. ENWSM data.

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Figure 1-1 Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model covers the White Nile downstream Lake Albert, the Abay – Blue

Nile, the Atbara and the Main Nile upstream Lake Nasser.



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2 Setup of the ENWSM

The ENWSM is based on the latest version of the general applicable software for river basin management and planning, RIBASIM Version 7.01. Table 2-1 lists the general features of RIBASIM. Table 2-1 List of general applicable RIBASIM7 modelling features. Sources: • Surface water like rainfall-runoff modeling (Sacramento model), • Groundwater modeling (water balance and groundwater use, no groundwater flow), All kind of users like: • Agriculture and irrigation water demand (DelftAGRI model), • Aquaculture demand, • Domestic, municipal and industrial water demand, • Environmental flow modeling, • (Firm) Hydro-power water demand, Infrastructure like: • Reservoir and lake modeling, • Diversion structures, Water allocation priorities: • Basin water allocation based on priorities per user, • Water allocation to crops within the irrigation area based on priority per crop (DelftAGRI

model), Hydrological flow routing, Production of: • Hydro-power production, • Agriculture yield and production costs model (DelftAGRI model), Water quality options: • Flow composition computation, • Basic water quality modeling, • Water quality process modeling (using Delwaq model, separate extension). The new features of RIBASIM Version 7.01 are related to the computation of the DMI demand based on population numbers, the link with the water quality process library and computation model DELWAQ and associated waste load estimation model, and the specification of: • Climate change scenarios • Land-use and population scenarios • Agriculture sector scenarios • Delwaq water quality scenarios • Management actions (measures, combination of measures cq strategies). RIBASIM Version 7.01 combines the water demand and allocation component with the water quality process library and computation model Delwaq and a waste load estimation model. With this combination, a solid water quality analysis in the river basin can be carried out. Delwaq is delivered as a separate component and is not part of the standard RIBASIM software.

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The base year for the ENWSM is year 2012. For the simulation of the Base case the ENWSM consists of (see Figure 2-1): 1 Historical hydrological data base of time series of the inflow at Mongalla, the runoff

from the various catchments, the monitored flows at various stations, the rainfall and evaporation values. The time series covers the period from January 1900 until December 2002.

2 Model database in which all data are stored describing the existing EN for the base

year 2012 and also all potential elements. It consists of:

– The river basin network schematization of various nodes and links representing existing and potential (inactive) infrastructure or water users, and associated source priority list.

– The characteristics of all nodes and links incl. operation rules and water allocation priorities.

3 The ENWSM pre-processing, simulation and post-processing programs under a

common user interface. 4 The computation results in the various formats for interpretation using maps, charts

and reports.

Figure 2-1 ENWSM data base and model components for the simulation of the Base case. For the simulation of future and potential situations and system configurations the ENWSM contains a list of pre-defined scenarios and management actions (interventions). The user selects among (see Figure 2-2): 1 Socio-economic scenarios. This scenario type contains the percentage change in

irrigated area, population numbers and industrial demand per catchment of base year 2012 (stored in the model data base) for the future demand years e.g. 2030.



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2 Agriculture sector scenarios. This scenario type contains the crop plans per catchment for the demand years.

3 Climate change scenarios. This scenario type contains the percentage change of the

hydrological variables defined in the hydrological scenarios due to climate change. 4 Measure and strategy data. This management action or intervention type contains a

list of strategies each consisting of a combination of potential measures. During the simulation the ENWSM programs start to read the data from the Model data base 2012, next the various scenarios and management actions are read which may overwrite the values of parameters from the Model data base. The ENWSM network schematization, the model data, the proposed scenarios and management actions are described in the next chapters.

Figure 2-2 ENWSM data bases and model components for the simulation of future scenarios and management

actions.

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3 Schematization of the Eastern Nile Water Resources System

3.1 Schematization of a river basin The schematization of the river basin should be such that the availability of water at major control structures and major water extraction points (users) is sufficiently represented. Individual upstream sub-basins are attached to those points. For such schematization a differentiation should be made between a limited set of relatively important water systems with regional influence and the many distributed small water users. It will usually be impossible for a larger basin to consider each individual (small) control point or user in an overall analysis of the basin, a suitable level of aggregation has to be found. Small scale local water systems should be considered by separate studies addressing the detailed configuration. Figure 3-1 illustrates the concept which is used in the river basin analysis with an example: a new reservoir is planned which will provide firm water supply to a downstream irrigation area, the water for the irrigation area is diverted at a downstream weir at some distance from the reservoir, the inter-mediate catchment between the reservoir and the weir can substantially contribute to the available water at the weir. Separate sub-basins are considered to evaluate the runoff at the reservoir and the extra runoff available at the weir from the intermediate catchment. The schematization is made as follows: • Two flow series will be considered in the schematization, representing the input to the

potential reservoir and the inter-mediate flow to the weir; • Small scale irrigation, which is scattered over each of the sub-basins, is taken into

account as one lumped irrigation area. This lumped irrigation area has a total area equal to the sum of the individual small irrigation areas and is further characterized by an average cropping pattern and irrigation intensity. This accounts for the influence of these small irrigation schemes on the water balance; water availability is then not assessed for each individual small irrigation area.

The total river basin is subdivided into a number of sub-basins, which represent hydrological entities and are chosen such that it can represent various small water users within the sub-basin and considers sufficient detail to evaluate water availability for the major users and water control structures. For each of the sub-basins a separate water balance can be prepared. Various (small) water users are considered in the sub-basin which is provided by local runoff and for which water may be diverted from the regional (basin) network. The sub-basin interacts with the basin network by (possible) diversion towards the sub-basin and drainage from the sub-basin. Based on the sub-basin schematization a network schematization is designed which includes each sub-basin, all main rivers, aquifers and canals, all infrastructures (weirs, dams, hydro-power stations, pumps) and all major users getting water from the main rivers, aquifers and canals. This schematization consists of a network of nodes connected by links. The nodes represent surface water reservoirs, aquifers, dams, weirs, pumps, hydro-power stations, water users, inflows, man-made and natural bifurcations, intake structures, natural lakes, etc. The links transport water between the different nodes.



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Such a network represents all of the basin’s features which are significant for its water balance and can be adjusted to provide the exact level of detail required. For the preparation of the network a list of standard node and link types is available. These are described in the next chapter.

Figure 3-1 Principle of river basin schematization with different levels of detail.

3.2 Node and link types

To perform simulations with RIBASIM7, a model network schematization of the basin has to be made, in which all the necessary features of the basin are represented by nodes connected by links. Such a model schematization is a translation - and a simplification - of the "real world" into a format, which allows the actual simulation. Roughly speaking there are four main groups of elements to be schematized:

• Infrastructure (surface and groundwater reservoirs, rivers, lakes, canals, pumping stations, pipelines), both natural and man-made.

• Water users (public water supply, agriculture, hydropower, aquaculture, navigation, nature, recreation), or in more general terms: water related activities.

• Management of the water resources system (reservoir operation rules, allocation methods).

• Hydrology (river flows, runoff, precipitation, evaporation) and geo-hydrology (groundwater flows, seepage).

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These groups are each schematized in their own way. The result of the schematization is a network of nodes and links which reflects the spatial relationships between the elements of the basin, and the data characterizing those nodes and links. Tabel 3.1. till Table 3-4 list the standard types of nodes and links which can be used to build a RIBASIM7 network schematization.

The user can also define his own node types based on one of the standard node types, called “parent node type”. This is for example applied to distinguish existing and potential reservoirs and irrigation areas in the network. Figure 3-2 shows all the node and links types defined for the ENWSM. Node type 29 and 30 are the user defined node types. The existing and potential reservoir and irrigation nodes have different colors in the network schematization.

Figure 3-2 Overview of node and link types used in RIBASIM to design the EN river basin schematization.



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Table 3-1 Overview of the lay-out node types. Node type name Representation Fixed and variable inflow node The upstream boundary of the system where water enters the network.

This inflow is specified as a time series. Two types of inflow node are available the “fixed” and “variable”. For the fixed inflow node an annual time series is used for each simulation year. For the variable inflow node multiple year time series are specified or the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model is used to compute the catchment runoff.

Terminal node The downstream boundary of the system where water leaves the network. This node may be connected to a (fixed or variable) inflow node representing a delay of one simulation time step and which is used to represent loops.

Confluence node The location where various river tributaries, canals and/or pipelines join. Recording node The flow gauging station in the network. Table 3-2 Overview of the demand (activity, water user) node types Node type name Representation Fixed, variable and advanced irrigation node

The water demand for irrigated agriculture. Three types are distinguished: the “fixed”, the “variable” and the “advanced” irrigation nodes. The difference consists in the level of detail in which the demand computations are carried out. At the “fixed” irrigation nodes only the net demand is specified. At “variable” irrigation nodes the gross demand is specified and the

actual rainfall is explicitly taking into account. At the “advanced” irrigation nodes the most detailed procedure is

applied based on the crop plan, crop-, soil- and irrigation practice-characteristics. Beside the water demand and allocation the crop yield and production costs are computed as well.

Fishpond node Aquaculture activities. An explicit flushing requirement is specified. Public water supply node The demand for public water supply, generally comprising demands for

domestic, municipal and industrial (DMI) purposes. Loss flow node Location where water “disappears” from the system in another way than

through a demand or activity node (e.g. by leakage to groundwater). A time series of loss flows is explicitly connected to this node. The loss flow may flow into a groundwater reservoir node.

Low flow node Location with a minimum flow requirement for example in view of maintaining a certain ambient water quality, a certain minimum water level in a canal (to allow navigation or for the intake of water for irrigation purposes) or a specific minimum environmental flow once in a number of years.

General district node Location where a district’s net water extraction and discharge are connected to the network as a time series of demands and discharges computed outside Ribasim.

Groundwater district node District of sub-catchment covering local runoff, public water supply, irrigation and local groundwater storage. This can be represented in more detail using a combination of the following node types: inflow node, public water supply nodes, irrigation node and groundwater reservoir node.

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Table 3-3 Overview of the control node types Node type name Representation Bifurcation node The (natural) subdivision of a flow over various downstream links. Diversion node Location of an intake structures or gates where water is diverted from a

river or a canal to satisfy downstream demands along the downstream diverted flow links.

Groundwater reservoir node Aquifer (groundwater reservoir). Water users abstract water depending on the groundwater level, pumping-depth and -capacity. Lateral flows may stream from one aquifer to another one. Outflows may stream to surface water (springs). The aquifer is filled up by groundwater recharge and lateral flows.

Surface water reservoir node Surface water storage facility allowing to store and release water in a controlled way over time for flood control, satisfy downstream water demands (irrigation, DMI, nature, navigation, hydropower generation, etc) depending on gate-levels and -capacities and the reservoir operation rules.

Link storage node Storage in a river or canal section as a function of the flow described by the Manning formula, flow-level relation, Muskingum formula, Puls method or Laurenson method.

Relevant for energy consumption or generation only Pumping node Pump station where water is pumped from the river to a canal or water

user. Only the consumed energy is computed. Capacity constraints must be specified using the diverted flow link or surface water flow link.

Run-of-river node Hydropower generation facilities without water storage capacity. Relevant for water quality only Waste water treatment plant node A plant where waste water is purified (artificial purification). Natural retention node The natural purification of polluting substances in the basin surface and

sub-surface water. Surface water reservoir partition node

Part of a surface water reservoir (applied only for reservoir water quality analysis). The total storage of the reservoir is separated over the various partitions.

Table 3-4 Overview of the link types. Link type name Representation Groundwater recharge flow link A flow into the aquifer which may come from an inflow node or from a

loss flow node. Groundwater abstraction link

A flow directly pumped from the aquifer by water users.

Lateral flow link A flow between two water bodies represented by a surface water reservoir, groundwater reservoir and/or link storage node. The flow is computed based on Darcy’s law, the water level difference between the two linked water bodies, a flow threshold – storage relation, a fixed flow per time step or a groundwater storage relation.

Groundwater outflow link A flow from the aquifer out of the system or to the surface water network (spring). The flow is a function of the groundwater depth.

Diverted flow link A flow diverted from a river or canal at a diversion node. The flow depends on the operation of the diversion structure and/or downstream demands (targets).



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Link type name Representation Surface water flow link A link between two nodes for surface water flow with limited flow

capacity (canal or pipeline) or without any capacity constraint (river). Reservoir backwater flow link A flow abstracted directly from a surface water reservoir. Bifurcated flow link A downstream flow at a bifurcation node. The flow is a function of the

upstream flow.

3.3 The EN catchment schematization The EN river basin upstream of Lake Nasser covers 4 major basins: • Baro-Akobo-Sobat-White Nile basin (BASWN). • Abay-Blue Nile basin (ABN). • Tekeze-Setit-Atbara basin (TSA). • Main Nile basin (MN). Each of these basins has been divided into a number of catchments or sub-basins. In total 161 catchments are distinguished. The division into catchments is based on drainage and water supply characteristics of the area. In case these two points of view gave conflicting results, water supply considerations prevailed. Catchment areas of existing and potential dam sites, weirs, monitoring stations, irrigation areas and confluences of 2 or more rivers form the basis of the partitions made. Figure 3-3 shows all catchments of the EN on a map.

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Figure 3-3 EN catchment schematization.



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3.4 The EN network schematization The EN network schematization is presented in Figure 3-4 and Figure 3-5. The schematization contains 1468 nodes and 1507 links. Table 3-5 outlines the dimensions of the network. The table specifies the number of active nodes and links in the “Base case” and the number of potential nodes and links which are inactive for the “Base case”. The EN network schematization contains all known projects in the EN River basin.

Table 3-5 Overview of dimensions of the ENWSM schematization. Number of Total Active Potential nodes 1468 1268 200 links 1509 1483 26 variable inflow nodes 162 162 0 fixed inflow nodes 3 3 0 confluence nodes 971 971 0 recording nodes 42 42 0 terminal nodes 6 6 0 surface water reservoir nodes 111 12 99 run-of-river nodes 6 2 4 diversion nodes 26 26 0 low flow nodes 4 3 1 public water supply nodes 5 5 0 loss flow nodes 2 2 0 bifurcation nodes 2 2 0 pumping nodes 1 1 0 link storage nodes 13 13 0 advanced irrigation nodes 114 18 96 surface water flow links 1465 1465 0 lateral flow links 1 1 0 diverted flow links 26 11 15 bifurcated flow links 2 2 0 SW reservoir backwater flow links 15 4 11 surface water flow links 1465 1465 0 lateral flow links 1 1 0 diverted flow links 26 11 15 bifurcated flow links 2 2 0 SW reservoir backwater flow links 15 4 11

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Figure 3-4 EN network schematization on map.



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Figure 3-5 EN network schematization without map.

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4 Operation of the ENWSM

The simulations within ENWSM requires the execution of a number of specific tasks, see Figure 4-1. The environment to create and run simulations is the Case Management Tool. The general concepts of the Case Management Tool and invoking model tasks in RIBASIM7 are outlined in Chapter 4 of the “RIBASIM Version 7.00 User manual”.

Figure 4-1 ENWSM interface for simulation case management and overview of task blocks.

The operation of the ENWSM means that the task blocks in the Case Management Tool have to be executed in sequence. Only selections have to be made at the first task block “Select scenario’s, measures and strategies”. The hydrological scenario, climate change scenario, land-use and population scenario, agriculture sector scenario, basic water quality scenario and management action must be selected among the available ones as listed in the previous chapter. The pop-up screen is shown in Figure 4-2 and Figure 4-3. The available scenarios and management actions, which are described in Annex B, are selected from the drop-down menus. After the selection the simulation case is defined and the simulation can run. Scenarios and management actions can be defined by the user. This is described in the “RIBASIM Version 7.01 User Manual, Addendum”. The final version of ENWSM is stored in the directory “ENWSM003.Rbn”. The base case is case "V26: ENWSM Base case". However the EN network schematization already includes all known projects, the model data of all those projects is not yet complete. The model data of

Select scenarios and measures

Design network and fill database

Define simulation period

Run simulation

Analyse results



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the major and most important projects are available e.g. big hydro-power projects on the Abay Blue Nile but for the some minor irrigation projects in the tributaries the model data is not yet complete.

Figure 4-2 Pop-up window after activating task block “Select scenario’s, measures and strategies”.

Figure 4-3 Pop-up window for the selection of the scenarios and management actions via drop-down menus.

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5 Illustrative ENWSM simulation cases

With the ENWSM a number of illustrative simulations will be carried out and analyzed for selected scenarios of hydraulic infrastructure developments and climatic conditions. A number of simulation cases is analyzed mainly in connection with the construction of the Renaissance Dam and further extension of the reservoir cascade on the Blue Nile further upstream and in combination with developments in different independent basins. Basically the following cases are defined and executed:

“Base case”, also called Baseline, representing the present 2012 situation. Cases to analyze the effect of various measures and strategies (combination of

measures, management actions, interventions). Table 5-1 defines various Abay cascades of dams. Table 5-2 lists all simulation cases. The water quality scenario is not included as this scenario will always be the Q000 scenario as no basic water quality computation is carried out. The model is hydrologically calibrated and / or verified under Verification case. This is described in Annex A. The overall verification is done on the ”Base case”. This is described in Annex B. The calibration / verification is done on the reproduction at the key locations of the natural flows by switching off all man made infrastructure and on the overall water use and hydro-power production of recent years using the current hydraulic infrastructure as far as those data is available. The results of all cases are compared with those of the “Base case”. The preparation of the measures, management actions and simulation cases has been done under Excel with the file “MeasureStrategy V2.xls”. This file is stored in the “Actions” sub-directory of the ENWSM application directory “ENWSM003.Rbn”. Table 5-1Definition of Abay cascades. Cascade name Description

Renaissance • Renaissance640 • Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. • High Roseires + Kenana irr.

A • Abay dams cascade A of Karadobi + Beko Abo Low + Mandaya + Renaissance620.

• Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. • High Roseires + Kenana irr

B • Abay dams cascade B of Karadobi - Beko Abo Low - Madaya Upper - Renaissance dam640


C • Abay dams cascade C of Beko Abo High (1062) + Mandaya + Renaissance620 • Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. • High Roseires + Kenana irr

D • Abay dams cascade D of Beko Abo High (1062) + Mandaya Upper + Renaissance640




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Table 5-2 Overview of simulation cases. Case ID ID

Hydr. ID

Climate ID

Socio-econ. ID

Agr. sect. ID

Man. action Verification case T003 C000 D000 A000 M502 S000 : Base case T003 C000 D000 A000 M000 S001 : Renaissance T003 C000 D001 A000 M001 S002 : Abay Cascade A T003 C000 D001 A000 M002 S003 : Abay Cascade B T003 C000 D001 A000 M003 S004 : Abay Cascade C T003 C000 D001 A000 M004 S005 : Abay Cascade D T003 C000 D001 A000 M005 S006 : Renaissance High Demand T003 C502 D001 A001 M001



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6 Simulation cases results

The ENWSM computes a large number of parameters which can be used to analyse the basin performance. The results of the simulation cases are specifically analyzed for the following parameters and formats:

The inflow into Lake Nasser. This parameter is the flow at the recording node 1755 “Rec_Su_AswanNatural”. The simulated flow and the x % dependable flow time series can be shown graphically on map and chart, and can be exported to Excel for further processing. For other locations e.g. at recording node 1325 “Rec_Su_ElDiemBorderEtSu” the same output can be generated.

The reliability of supply to all water users. This parameter equals the percentage of simulated success time steps. A success time step is a time step in which the demand was fulfilled within a defined uncertainty range. The summary report shows this parameter.

The water use in the EN countries for irrigation, hydropower, domestic, municipal and industrial use. The time series of simulated supply to each irrigation and public water supply node can be exported to Excel and further processed. Further in the summary report and the overall basin water balance report the annual average water use and supply for each node is listed. The values can be exported (Copy-Paste) to Excel and sorted on the node names and country (part of the name). Next the use per country can be computed. The same can be done for hydro-power production.

The evaporation from swamps, reservoirs and rivers. The annual average evaporation from the reservoirs, swamps and river reaches is listed in the overall river basin water balance report.

The hydro-power production (firm and secondary). The annual average firm and secondary hydro-power production is listed for each hydro-power station (reservoir, run-of-river) in the summary report.

The size of the swamps (wetlands, marshes). The simulated swamp surface area time series can be shown graphically on map and chart at the link storage nodes representing the swamps, and can be exported for further processing.

The simulation results for the cases and the various parameters are outlined below:

Inflow of Lake Nasser (border between Sudan and Egypt). Flow at Deim (border between Ethiopia and Sudan). Hydro-power production. Net open water evaporation of reservoirs. Water use per country. Size of the Bahr El Ghazal, Machar and Sudd swamps.

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Inflow to Lake Nasser (border between Sudan and Egypt)

Table 6-1 Average monthly inflow of Lake Nasser (Mcm). Cases j f m a m j j a s o n d Annual Ver 4671.7 3123.7 2449.5 1665.8 1388.7 1729.9 5156.1 17204.0 19547.1 14481.0 8742.2 6447.8 86607.5 S000 3506.2 2580.2 2666.6 2516.9 2626.9 2403.6 2672.2 10807.3 15557.2 12029.5 7595.8 5279.4 70241.9 S001 4768.2 3709.3 3360.1 2932.6 3332.5 3713.1 4661.0 6988.1 9099.2 8746.6 6666.7 5678.6 63655.9 S002 5254.0 3938.4 3443.9 2911.9 3034.7 3247.2 4368.8 7493.4 8760.2 8183.8 6868.6 6212.0 63716.8 S003 4752.4 3673.5 3294.5 2822.3 3170.7 3533.1 4489.4 6872.6 9016.2 8656.8 6750.7 5722.8 62755.2 S004 5272.3 3942.1 3462.2 2912.4 2962.1 3210.0 4467.3 7618.4 8763.9 8057.5 6830.8 6218.5 63717.3 S005 4747.5 3660.8 3290.0 2840.8 3192.5 3546.3 4497.3 6877.1 8970.6 8615.3 6768.6 5739.3 62746.2 S006 4815.8 3807.4 3516.2 3058.9 3328.3 3553.3 4377.7 6551.9 8161.4 7955.2 6365.1 5606.3 61097.5

Average monthly inflow of Lake Nasser (Mcm)

0.0

5000.0

10000.0

15000.0

20000.0

25000.0

j f m a m j j a s o n d

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Figure 6-1 Average monthly inflow of Lake Nasser (Mcm).

Annual average inflow of Lake Nasser (Mcm)

0.010000.020000.030000.040000.050000.060000.070000.080000.090000.0

100000.0

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Figure 6-2 Annual average inflow of Lake Nasser (Mcm)



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Flow at Deim (border between Ethiopia and Sudan)

Table 6-2 Average monthly flow at Deim (Mcm). Cases j f m a m j j a s o n d Annual Ver 869.2 515.0 405.3 339.3 586.2 1611.4 6442.3 14994.4 12156.0 6718.8 2746.9 1468.0 48852.9 S000 883.0 567.7 501.5 460.1 725.8 1733.9 6484.7 14844.8 11800.8 6414.3 2592.9 1416.5 48425.9 S001 3454.9 3384.1 3378.7 3367.0 3395.5 3511.2 3758.6 3773.5 5471.1 4960.5 3443.0 3441.9 45339.9 S002 3430.6 3069.6 3040.3 2857.3 2779.5 3710.9 4443.2 4547.9 4613.4 4639.3 4161.1 3968.9 45262.0 S003 3418.9 3321.4 3301.6 3234.3 3287.5 3502.9 3574.1 3652.7 5348.4 4949.1 3471.6 3385.7 44448.1 S004 3494.3 3016.0 3379.6 2632.6 2876.6 3607.5 4423.9 4613.7 4568.6 4482.3 4192.0 3991.4 45278.5 S005 3387.2 3345.8 3324.3 3278.9 3234.8 3447.3 3573.4 3707.9 5297.0 4977.9 3485.8 3377.8 44438.0 S006 3522.3 3417.4 3364.5 3103.5 2939.5 3195.0 3845.0 3788.7 4499.5 4467.4 3512.5 3529.2 43184.4

Average monthly flow at El Diem Mcm)

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0

14000.0

16000.0

j f m a m j j a s o n d

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Figure 6-3 Average monthly flow at Deim (Mcm).

Annual average flow at Deim (Mcm)

40000.041000.042000.043000.044000.045000.046000.047000.048000.049000.050000.0

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Figure 6-4 Annual average flow at Deim (Mcm)

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1206020-000-VEB-0010, 6 December 2012,


Hydro-power production

Table 6-3 Generated energy at various dams (GWh).

Cases Mendaya Up

Beko Abo Low

Tekeze Finchaa Upper Beles

Khasm El

Girba Karadobi

Mandaya

Dw

Renaissance Roseires Sennar Jebel Aulia Merowe Aswan Total

Ver 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 S000 0 0 956 253 0 68 0 0 0 952 66 226 5917 11958 20396 S001 0 0 956 253 1622 68 0 0 13891 1645 106 226 6505 10326 35598 S002 0 4578 956 253 1621 68 8390 13043 11560 1524 103 226 6344 10378 59045 S003 8299 4632 956 253 1622 68 8391 0 13999 1647 107 226 6485 10116 56801 S004 0 11726 956 253 1622 68 0 13130 11495 1522 103 226 6347 10375 57823 S005 8370 11757 956 253 1622 68 0 0 14012 1645 106 226 6488 10119 55623 S006 0 0 952 245 1620 68 0 0 13366 1607 104 226 6471 9789 34447

Total energy production (GWh)

0.0

10000.0

20000.0

30000.0

40000.0

50000.0

60000.0

70000.0

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Figure 6-5 Total energy production for each case GWh).



25

Net open water evaporation from reservoirs

Table 6-4 Average annual net open water evaporation from reservoirs (Mcm) and difference with case S000 (%). Annual avrg net evap (Mcm) Difference (%)

Ver 0.0 S000 18310.5 S001 16622.5 -9.2 S002 16597.0 -9.4 S003 16597.4 -9.4 S004 16559.6 -9.6 S005 16605.2 -9.3 S006 14651.4 -20.0

Table 6-5 Avg annual net open water evaporation from Lake Nasser (Mcm) and difference with case S000 (%). Annual avrg net evap (Mcm) Difference (%)

Ver 0.0 S000 13165.2 S001 9139.0 -30.6 S002 9214.6 -30.0 S003 8573.3 -34.9 S004 9208.1 -30.1 S005 8611.8 -34.6 S006 7663.6 -41.8

Annual average net evaporation (Mcm)

0.02000.04000.06000.08000.0

10000.012000.014000.016000.018000.020000.0

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Figure 6-6 Average annual net open water evaporation from reservoirs (Mcm).

Lake Nasser average annual net evaporation (Mcm)

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0

14000.0

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Figure 6-7 Average annual net evaporation from Lake Nasser (Mcm).

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1206020-000-VEB-0010, 6 December 2012,


Irrigation and DMI water use per country Table 6-6 Irrigation and DMI water use per country (Mcm).

Irr. water use (Mcm) Pws water use (Mcm) Cases Ethiopia Sudan Egypt South Sudan Ethiopia Sudan Egypt South Sudan S000 127.9 10663.0 56802.8 0.0 202.0 321.9 0.0 37.9 S001 925.0 12642.1 54674.0 0.0 252.4 402.4 0.0 47.3 S002 925.0 12642.0 54745.6 0.0 249.7 402.4 0.0 47.3 S003 925.0 12642.0 54550.7 0.0 249.7 402.4 0.0 47.3 S004 925.0 12642.0 54756.9 0.0 252.4 402.4 0.0 47.3 S005 925.0 12642.1 54511.6 0.0 252.4 402.4 0.0 47.3 S006 881.1 12053.2 53774.4 0.0 252.4 402.4 0.0 47.3

Table 6-7 Irrigation and DMI water use per country (Mcm)

Ethiopia Sudan Egypt South Sudan S000 329.9 10984.8 56802.8 37.9 S001 1177.4 13044.4 54674.0 47.3 S002 1174.8 13044.3 54745.6 47.3 S003 1174.7 13044.4 54550.7 47.3 S004 1177.4 13044.4 54756.9 47.3 S005 1177.4 13044.5 54511.6 47.3 S006 1133.5 12455.5 53774.4 47.3

Table 6-8 Total water use of Sudan incl. Roseires, Sennar, Khasm El Girba and Merowe evaporation.

Cases Evap. from reservoirs Irr. And DMI use Total

S000 2630.4 10984.8 13615.2S001 3616.9 13044.4 16661.3S002 3543.3 13044.3 16587.7S003 3623.5 13044.4 16667.9S004 3558.0 13044.4 16602.4S005 3623.3 13044.5 16667.8S006 3415.9 12455.5 15871.5

Total water use (Mcm)

0.0

10000.0

20000.0

30000.0

40000.0

50000.0

60000.0

S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Ethiopia Sudan Egypt South Sudan

Figure 6-8 Total water use per country (Mcm).



27

Figure 6-9 water use of Sudan (Mcm) incl. evaporation from Roseires, Sennar, Khasm El Girba and Merowe.

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1206020-000-VEB-0010, 6 December 2012,


Size of the Bahr El Ghazal, Machar and Sudd swamps Table 6-9 Size of the Bahr El Ghazal, Machar and Sudd swamps (ha) per cases.

Cases Bahr El Ghazal Machar Sudd Ver 634707 175649 1641651

S000 634707 175634 1639666 S001 634707 175632 1639193 S002 634707 175652 1639193 S003 634707 175631 1639193 S004 634707 175627 1639193 S005 634707 175642 1639193 S006 636781 166590 1580705

Swamp area (ha)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Bahr El Ghazal Machar Sudd

Figure 6-10 Area of Bahr El Ghazal, Machar and Sudd swamps per case (ha).



29

7 Building modeling capacity at ENTRO

Training sessions have been organized for the ENTRO interns and staff during each of the 3 missions. Training during mission 1, June 2012 At the start of the training each participant installed the RIBASIM7 software and some example applications on his/her laptop with a temporary license till 1 October 2012. The following tropics were covered:

Presentation “Introduction on RIBASIM Version 7” Exercise on “Interpretation and design of a RIBASIM river basin schematization”. Demonstration of the use and operation of the RIBASIM software Hand-on exercise on the modeling of an example river basin:

o Interactively design network schematization (Netter) o Rename the nodes and/or links o Enter model data for each node and link o Check source priority (preference) list o Generate overview of all data and check the data o Simulate the case o View and evaluate results: map (Netter), graph (export) and reports

Training during mission 2, September 2012 During the mission 2 full-days training have been organized for the 12 ENTRO interns (see Figure 7-1). At the start of the training each participant installed the RIBASIM7 software and 3 example applications on his/her laptop with a temporary license till 1 January 2013. The following topics were covered:

Presentation “Introduction on RIBASIM Version 7” incl. introduction to 3 projects in which RIBASIM7 is applied in Morocco, Indonesia and Eastern Nile.

Exercise on “Interpretation and design of a RIBASIM river basin schematization”. Plenary look-and-feel exercise with the example application for the Ciujung River basin,

Indonesia in order to demonstrate the use and operation of RIBASIM software. Hand-on exercise on the modeling of an example river basin:

o Interactively design network schematization (Netter) o Rename the nodes and/or links o Enter model data for each node and link o Check source priority (preference) list o Generate overview of all data and check the data o Simulate the case o View and evaluate results: map (Netter), graph (export) and reports

Quick start Virgin River basin exercise and discussion of the model results at the various simulation cases. Further, discussion of issues like directory structure, hydrological

30

1206020-000-VEB-0010, 6 December 2012,


scenarios and the time series files, the time series index, flow composition, basic water quality computation, etc.

Training during mission 3, November 2012 During the mission two presentations were given for the ENTRO staff and the interns (see Figure 7-2) on Thursday 1 November:

1. “Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model based on RIBASIM” outlines the setup of the ENWSM, the Nile catchment and network schematizations, the model data, the identified scenarios, measures and strategies (management actions) of the use / simulation cases.

2. “Hydrological boundary conditions for ENWSM” outlines the applied methods and the results for the actual and effective rainfall, the open water evaporation, the reference evapotranspiration and the river flows.

During the mission 2 full-days training have been organized on 11 and 12 November for the ENTRO staff and interns. At the start of the training the beta version of ENWSM software was installed on the server pc’s in the class room and some private laptops of participants. The temporary license till 1 January 2013 was used. A large number of topics have been presented and discussed in a look-and-feel exercise form during which the participants could carry out the same actions as demonstrated on the screen. Delivery of RIBASIM7 licenses The following 6 RIBASIM7 software licenses and hardware keys had been handed over to ENTRO:

9-0A560A98 9-52FE2881 9-73566CEB 9-2EF9B02D 9-111885BA 9-33EC535E



31

Figure 7-1 RIBASIM7 training group, ENTRO, September 2012.

Figure 7-2 ENWSM RIBASIM7 training group, ENTRO, November 2012.



33

8 Literature

Van der Krogt, W.N.M., RIBASIM Version 7.00 User manual, December 2008 and addendum, January 2011, Deltares Van der Krogt, W.N.M., RIBASIM Version 7.00 Technical reference manual, December 2008 and addendum, January 2010, Deltares Van der Krogt, W.N.M., RIBASIM Version 7.01 User manual addendum, April 2012, Deltares Eastern Nile Irrigation and Drainage Studies (ENIDS), Component 1: Annex A to main report, Phase 1: diagnostic and planning phase, September 2008

Documents

Development of the Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model