“Development of Reduction Emission Scenarios’ Strategy and

Health Consequences of Air Pollution in Jakarta”

TCAP-RCCC UI

INTRODUCTION

• An environmental issue that continuously worsen living conditions in many of Indonesia’s big cities is air pollution.

• Road transport is the major source of air pollution in Jakarta.

INTRODUCTION

• Jakarta is one of the most polluted cities in the world.

• Air pollution in Jakarta is above the safe limits specified by WHO.

• In Jakarta, cost of illness due to all sources of air pollution increased from US $ 40 million in 1994 to US $ 3.1 billion in 2010 (MOE-UNEP PCFV study, 2012).

1,200 premature deaths

464,000 Asthma Cases

32 million respiratory problem cases

No. Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

1 combustion in energy and transformation

0.55 1.35 2.75 8.42 6.40 3.43 3.04 2.62 2.33

2 non-industrial combustion plants

5.90 6.22 7.66 7.39 7.23 5.53 6.13 6.63 7.03

3 combustion in manufacturing industry

13.02 13.25 13.20 13.29 13.37 29.42 42.80 55.90 69.83

4 production processes 371.53 372.07 372.30 502.31 552.21 552.11 552.02 551.81 551.59

5

extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6 solvent and other product use

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7 road transport 3.92 3.36 2.62 2.47 2.20 0.69 0.78 0.93 1.07

8 other mobile sources and machinery

0.93 0.73 0.47 0.49 0.36 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.49

9 waste treatment and disposal

0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04

10 agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

total 395.88 397.00 399.02 534.38 581.80 591.33 604.92 618.05 632.37

GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR SO2 EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030

(kiloton)

ECLIPSE My Scenario

GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR SO2 EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030

(kiloton)

GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR NOx EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030

(kiloton)

ECLIPSE My Scenario

ECLIPSE My Scenario

GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR PM2.5EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030

(kiloton)

GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR CO2 EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030

(megaton)

GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR GHG EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030

(megaton)

GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR N2O EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030

(kiloton)

GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR NH3 EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030

(kiloton)

GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR PM10EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030

(kiloton)

GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR VOC EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030

(kiloton)

DATA INVENTORY AND ANALYSIS OF JAKARTA

DAILY-AVERAGE PM10 CONCENTRATION IN JAKARTA 2001-2010

NAAQS: (PM-10 daily average: 150 ug/m3 (PP.No. 41/Tahun 1999)

NAAQS (SO2 : 365 ug/m3 daily average (PP. No.41/Tahun 1999)

DAILY-AVERAGE SO2 CONCENTRATION IN JAKARTA 2001-2010

NAAQS (Nitrogen Dioxide 150 µg/m3 dailly average PP. No.41/Tahun 1999

DAILY-AVERAGE NO2 CONCENTRATION IN JAKARTA 2001-2010

NAAQS (CO : 10 mg/m3 daily average (PP41/Tahun 1999)

DAILY ANNUAL-AVERAGE OF CO CONCENTRATION IN JAKARTA 2001-2010

Estimates of emissions of air pollutants from anthropogenic sources in Jakarta in 2010, by sector (kilotons)

NAAQS (Ozone : 50 µg/m3 daily average (PP. No.41/Tahun 1999)

DAILY ANNUAL-AVERAGE OF O3 CONCENTRATION

IN JAKARTA 2001-2010

Number of population DKI Jakarta 2000 and 2010 from BPS: 26 May 2011 09:22. www.bps.go.id/aboutus.php?tabel=1&id_subyek=122000 8,389,4432010 9,607,787

In Jakarta 2010: 1,210,581 people suffered by asthmatic bronchiale (compared with

500,000 population predicted by Ostro 1994); 153,724 people with bronchopneumonia; 2,449,986 with ARI; 336,273 people with pneumonia; 153,724 people with COPD, and; 1,246,130 people with coronary artery diseases.

It shows that a total of 57.8% of the Jakarta population had already suffered by various air pollution-related diseases in 2010

NUMBER OF CASES DISEASES-RELATED TO AIR POLLUTANTS IN

JAKARTA 2010

COST OF ILLNESS DISEASES-RELATED TO AIR POLLUTANTS IN JAKARTA 2010

Health Impacts

Incidence Per 100,000

Cost per patient (x1000)

Estimated cost in Jakarta (x 1 million)

Med Mean Med Mean Minimum Maximum Asthmatic bronchiale Bronchopneumonia ARI Pneumonia COPD Coronary artery diseases

12,600 1,600

25,500 3,500 1,600

12,970

569 133 132 311 613 780

1,445

331 244

2,012 2,181 1,819

688,215

20,369 323,398 104,486

94,233 971,670

1,749,379

50,812 597,150 676,420 335,271

2,266,334

210,607

14,066 225,747

36,902 25,236

185,378

5,349,095

561,221 11,698,297 1,834,490

811,176 18,253,187

Total 2,202,371 5,340,430 697,935 38,507,187

Primary energy supply by source

Source: Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources (MoEMR), 2010

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Thou

sand

BO

E

Year

Energy Consumption

Oil

NG

Coal

Hydro

Geothermal

Final energy consumption by sector

0,E+00

5,E+05

1,E+06

2,E+06

2,E+06

3,E+06

3,E+06

4,E+06

4,E+06

Tera

Jou

le (T

J)

Year Industry Transportation Agriculture Domestic

Source: MoEMR, 2010

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010

INDONESIA

FUEL SUPPLY & DEMANDEstimation of Consumption, Production, and Import of Oil Fuel

(Mogas, Kerosene, ADO, IDO, FO)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Year

Vol

ume

(bbl

/day

)

Consumption

Domestic Fuel Prod.

Fuel Supply

Note:- Fuel S upply = Domestic fuel production + Import- Data on 2006-2020 import = C onsumption - P roduction- Fuel consumption growth (average) 1995-2005 is 4,6% - Assuming average fuel consumption growth of 4,5% in 2006-2020

B

Trend of Gaseous Fuel Utilization for Transport Sector

Source: Pertamina, 2010 processed by KPBB

Bio-fuels

61%

36%

2%0%

0%

0%0%

1%

PREMIUM

PERTAMAX

PERTAMAX PLUS

BIOPREMIUM

BIOPERTAMAX E-5

SOLAR/HSD/MGO/ADO

PERTAMINA DEX

BIOSOLAR-B5

1.81%0.00%36.23%0.04%0.03%0.25%0.64%61%Share (%)

385,864.000432.1227,712,403.0029,321.7176,008.00053,114.000135,336.92312,984,783.090Sales

BIOSOLAR-B5

PERTAMINA DEX

SOLAR/HSD/MGO/ADO

BIOPERTAMAX E-5BIOPREMIUMPERTAMAX

PLUSPERTAMAXPREMIUM

1.81%0.00%36.23%0.04%0.03%0.25%0.64%61%Share (%)

385,864.000432.1227,712,403.0029,321.7176,008.00053,114.000135,336.92312,984,783.090Sales

BIOSOLAR-B5

PERTAMINA DEX

SOLAR/HSD/MGO/ADO

BIOPERTAMAX E-5BIOPREMIUMPERTAMAX

PLUSPERTAMAXPREMIUM

Source: Pertamina, 2008

January – August 2008

Use of bio-fuels in transportation sector (1)

Biopremium 0.03%

Biopertamax E-5 0.04%

Biosolar B5 1.81%

Key issues on fuel quality

• Indonesia is free of leaded gasoline • Diesel oil does not comply with Euro 2 fuel requirement

– Total Domestic Refineries Production of ADO spec. (S max. 3500 ppm) is approx 87.0 Million Barrel per year

– Total import ADO spec. (Sulfur content 5000. ppm) is approx 75.0 Million Barrel per year for Industry

– Sulfur content at pump is in the range of 400 ppm to 4600 ppm• Transport sector absorbs significant portion of fuel subsidy

Key issues with fuel supply, demand, and subsidy

NATIONAL DATA, REGULATIONS AND POLICIES

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY SOURCE

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Thou

sand

BO

E

Year

Energy Consumption

Oil

NG

Coal

Hydro

Geothermal

Source: MoEMR, 2010

0,E+00

5,E+05

1,E+06

2,E+06

2,E+06

3,E+06

3,E+06

4,E+06

4,E+06Te

ra J

oule

(TJ)

Year Industry Transportation Agriculture Domestic

ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR

Source: MoEMR, 2010

Estimation of Consumption, Production, and Import of Oil Fuel(Mogas, Kerosene, ADO, IDO, FO)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Year

Vol

ume

(bbl

/day

)

Consumption

Domestic Fuel Prod.

Fuel Supply

Note:- Fuel S upply = Domestic fuel production + Import- Data on 2006-2020 import = C onsumption - P roduction- Fuel consumption growth (average) 1995-2005 is 4,6% - Assuming average fuel consumption growth of 4,5% in 2006-2020

B

FUEL SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Number of Vehicles in Indonesia by Type

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Year

Thou

sand

Uni

t TOTALPASSENGERBUSTRUCKMOTORCYCLE

Composition of Vehicles in Indonesia by Type

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

Year

MOTORCYCLETRUCKBUSPASSENGER

Monthly Vehicle Production in Indonesia by Type

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Month

Un

it

TOTALSEDANSEDAN 1500SEDAN 1500 - 3000SEDAN 3000MPV 1500MPV 1500 - 2000MPV 2500-3000SUV 1500SUV 3000BUS 5 TBUS 5 - 24 TTRUCK 5 - 24 TTRUCK 24 T

0

20

40

60

80

100

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

MOTOR_ACTUAL MOTOR_PRED

Number of Motor Cycle in Indonesia: Actual Vs Predicted

Millio

n Un

it

0

5

10

15

20

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

PASS_ACTUAL PASS_PRED

Number of Passenger Cars in Indonesia: Actual Vs Predicted

Millio

n Unit

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

BUS_ACTUAL BUS_PRED

Number of Buses in Indonesia: Actual Vs Predicted

Millio

n Un

it

0

2

4

6

8

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15TRUCK_ACTUALTRUCK_PRED

Number of Trucks in Indonesia: Actual Vs Predicted

Mill

ion

FORECASTING STATISTICS GASOLINE AND DIESEL COMSUMPTION TO 2016

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

GASOLINEPF ± 2 S.E.

Forecast : GASOLI NEPFAct ual: GASOLI NEPForecast sample: 1990: 01 2015:Adjust ed sample: 1990: 03 2015:I ncluded observat ions: 250

Root Mean Squared Er ror 90472. 29Mean Absolut e Er ror 60365. 46Mean Abs. Percent Er ror 5. 222652Theil I nequalit y Coef f icient 0. 038502 Bias Propor t ion 0. 001759 Var iance Proport ion 0. 028894 Covariance Propor t ion 0. 969347

FORECASTING STATISTICS: GASOLINE CONSUMPTION

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

DIESELPF ± 2 S.E.

Forecast : DI ESELPFAct ual: DI ESELPForecast sample: 1990: 01 2015:Adjust ed sample: 2006: 03 2015:I ncluded observat ions: 58

Root Mean Squared Er ror 59738. 64Mean Absolut e Er ror 50832. 85Mean Abs. Percent Er ror 5. 010395Theil I nequalit y Coef f icient 0. 028749 Bias Propor t ion 0. 005894 Var iance Proport ion 0. 075141 Covariance Propor t ion 0. 918965

FORECASTING STATISTICS: DIESEL OIL

FOCUS OF THE SCENARIO

1. EMISSION FROM TRANSPORTATION2. HUMAN HEALTH BENEFICIERIES

CHALLENGES

1. Inventory data format vs GAINS template2. Couldn't download "pollutant by GAINS region“3. Couldn't display the maps of "Ambient concentrations and

deposition" because the map of Indonesia is unavailable4. data of premature mortality from ambient PM2,5 is only

available for India's data

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION