Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
DEVELOPMENT OF INTELLIGENT
TECHNIQUES FOR DINAR AND DIRHAM
COINS DETECTION AND PRICE
PREDICTION
BY
MOHAMAD GHAZALI B. AMEER AMSA
A dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the
requirement for the degree of Master of
Science in Mechatronics Engineering
Kulliyyah of Engineering
International Islamic University
Malaysia
APRIL 2013
ii
ABSTRACT
Nowadays, there are several efforts to reintroduce the gold (Dinar) and silver
(Dirham) coins among Muslim countries and even worldwide. This phenomenon
directly increases the awareness among the people to buy gold for investment and
other usages (e.g. paying zakat, barter trading, dowry, etc). Unlike jewelry, Dinar and
Dirham coins have standard values such as standard weight, diameter, thickness and
material content. Consequently, the conventional material content testers normally
used for jewelry do not fulfill the Dinar and Dirham coins verification requirement
since the aforementioned standard values are not measured. In this research, a real
time system is developed to detect these bimetallic coins based on material content,
diameter and thickness analysis. The developed coins detection system is equipped
with three sensors comprising of eddy currents sensor, diameter measurement sensor
and infrared sensor. A Colpitts oscillator is used as an eddy current sensor to test
material content and physical properties of the coins. This oscillator circuit is designed
through a combination of Genetic Algorithm (GA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
and basic circuit analysis techniques, while the coil for this oscillator is designed base
on experimental approach. Diameter measurement sensor in this system is used to
measure the diameter of coin, whereas an infrared optical sensor is used to detect the
presence of the test coin inside the system. Furthermore, in order to assist Dinar and
Dirham investors know the most appropriate time to trade these bimetallic coins, a
price prediction modal is developed and incorporated with coin prediction system.
This price prediction model is developed through a combination of Autoregressive
(AR) model and ANN to predict the next day price of Dinar and Dirham. Unlike
existing techniques, in this study ANN is used to find the model coefficients for AR
prediction model. Coin detection system and price prediction system are integrated in
such a way that each time the Dirham coin is detected by the coin detection system,
the prediction system will predict the next day price of that Dirham. AtMega328
microcontroller is used as the data acquisition and controller unit for the developed
system.
iii
ملخص البحث
iv
APPROVAL PAGE
I certify that I have supervised and read this study and that in my opinion, it conforms
to acceptable standards of scholarly presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and
quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science (Mechatronics Engineering).
……….........................................
Momoh Jimoh E. Salami
Supervisor
I certify that I have read this study and that in my opinion it conforms to acceptable
standards of scholarly presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a
thesis for the degree of Master of Science (Mechatronics Engineering)
…….. .………………………………
Mahammad Mahbubur Rashid
Internal examiner
I certify that I have read this study and that in my opinion it conforms to acceptable
standards of scholarly presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a
thesis for the degree of Master of Science (Mechatronics Engineering)
...……………………………………
Paulraj Murugesan
External examiner
This thesis was submitted to the Department of Mechatronics and is accepted as a
fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science (Mechatronics
Engineering)
………………...……………………
Md. Raisuddin Khan
Head of Department of Mechatronics
This thesis was submitted to the Kuliyyah of Engineering and is accepted as a
fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science (Mechatronics
Engineering)
….…………... ……………………
Md Noor Bin Salleh
Dean, Kuliyyah of Engineering
v
DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this dissertation is the result of my own investigations, except
where otherwise stated. I also declare that it has not been previously or concurrently
submitted as a whole for any other degrees at IIUM or other institutions.
Mohamad Ghazali B. Ameer Amsa
Signature……………………………. Date ……………………
vi
INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY MALAYSIA
DECLARATION OF COPYRIGHT AND AFFIRMATION
OF FAIR USE OF UNPUBLISHED RESEARCH
Copyright © 2012 by International Islamic University Malaysia. All rights reserved.
DEVELOPMENT OF INTELLIGENT TECHNIQUES DINAR AND
DIRHAM COINS DETECTION AND PRICE PREDICTION
I hereby affirm that The International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) holds all
rights in the copyright of this Work and henceforth any reproduction or use in any
form or by means whatsoever is prohibited without the written consent of IIUM. No
parts of this unpublished research may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or
transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronics, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise without prior written permission of the copying holder.
Affirmed by Mohamad Ghazali B. Ameer Amsa
………………….... ………………….
Signature Date
vii
To my beloved parents, wife
and
all my supportive friends
viii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Alhamdulillah towards Allah (S.W.T), the Most Beneficent and the Most Merciful for
His blessing, Who has given me good health throughout this research period which
made it possible for me to finish this research in the expected time. My gratitude to
my supervisor, Professor Dr. Momoh Jimoh Eyiomika Salami for his guidance and
assistance along this research period regardless the time and day even during
weekend. I would like to express my thanks to my co-supervisor, Dr. Abiodun Musa
Aibinu for his advice and support at all times.
I am also thankful to all academic and non academic staffs, especially brother
Shahlan for providing the necessary electronic components and fabrication material to
complete the prototype development in this research.
I would also like to acknowledge the contribution of all my friends in
Kulliyyah of Engineering for provide me assistant, support motivation and ideas
throughout the study period. Last but not least, unquantifiable thanks to my family for
their patient and moral support during the study.
ix
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract ......................................................................................................................... ii
Abstract in Arabic ........................................................................................................ iii
Approval Page .............................................................................................................. iv
Declaration Page ........................................................................................................... v
Copyright Page ............................................................................................................. vi
Dedication ................................................................................................................... vii
Acknowledgement ..................................................................................................... viii
List of Tables ............................................................................................................... xi
List of Figures ............................................................................................................ xiii
List of Symbols ......................................................................................................... xvii
List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................. xxi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Problem Statement and its Significance ...................................................... 4
1.3 Research Objectives..................................................................................... 5
1.4 Research Methodology ................................................................................ 6
1.5 Research Scope ............................................................................................ 9
1.6 Dissertation Outline ..................................................................................... 9
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................ 11
2.1 Introduction................................................................................................ 12
2.2 Characteristic of Existing Coins ................................................................ 16
2.3 Coin Discriminator System ....................................................................... 23
2.4 Eddy Current Theory ................................................................................. 29
2.5 Electromagnetic Sensor ............................................................................. 31
2.6 Oscillator Circuits ......................................................................... ……… 32
2.7 Application Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network in
circuits design ............................................................................................ 40
2.8 Forecasting Techniques ................................................................ ……… 43
2.8.1 Forecasting Models ......................................................................... 46
2.8.1.1 Linear Prediction ................................................................. 46
2.8.1.2 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ....................... 47
2.8.1.3 Artificial Intelligence Models .............................................. 48
2.8.2 Performance Metrics for Forecasting Techniques .......................... 51
2.9 Summary .................................................................................................... 54
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY ............................................................... 56
3.1 Introduction................................................................................................ 56
3.2 Proposed System Description .................................................................... 57
3.3 Eddy Current Sensor ................................................................................. 58
3.3.1 Colpitts Oscillator Modelling .......................................................... 59
3.3.2 Resistors Selection and Optimization ............................................. 63
3.3.3 Capacitor Selection ......................................................................... 68
x
3.4 Eddy Current Test Parameters Selection ................................................... 70
3.4.1 Coil Design ..................................................................................... 71
3.4.2 Test Frequency Experimental Analysis .......................................... 72
3.5 Diameter Measurement Sensor .................................................................. 74
3.6 Coin Detection Sensor ............................................................................... 76
3.7 Coin Analysis Prototype Development ..................................................... 77
3.8 Data Acquisition and Controller Device.................................................... 79
3.9 Prediction System Development................................................................ 80
3.10 Summary .................................................................................................. 84
CHAPTER FOUR: DEVELOPMENT OF DINAR AND DIRHAM COINS
DETECTION AND PREDICTION SYSTEM ...................................................... 86
4.1 Introduction................................................................................................ 86
4.2 Coin Detection System Development and Performance Evaluation ......... 86
4.2.1 Colpitts Oscillator Development ..................................................... 87
4.2.1.1 Colpitts Oscillator Parameters Selection .............................. 87
4.2.1.2 Coil Design ........................................................................... 90
4.2.1.3 Test Frequency Optimization ............................................. 95
4.2.1.4 Signal Conditioning Circuit Development ........................... 96
4.2.1.5 Eddy Current Sensor Performance Evaluation ..................... 99
4.2.2 Diameter Measurement Sensor Performance Analysis ................. 100
4.2.3 Infrared Optical Sensor Adjustment and Performance
Evaluation ...................................................................................... 102
4.3 Price Prediction model Development and Performance Evaluation........ 106
4.4 System Integration and Evaluation .......................................................... 110
4.5 Summary .................................................................................................. 115
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION .................... 117
5.1 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 117
5.2 Recommendation ..................................................................................... 118
BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................... 120
PUBLICATIONS .................................................................................................... 128
APPENDIX A: OSCILLATOR RESPONSE SIMULATION RESULT ................. 129
APPENDIX B: COLPITTS OSCILLATOR OPTIMIZATE RESISTORS DATA . 139
APPENDIX C: PROGRAMMING CODE FOR MICROCONTROLLER ............. 148
APPENDIX D: DINAR AND DIRHAM DAILY PRICE DATA ........................... 153
APPENDIX E: COIL SPECIFICATION ................................................................. 161
xi
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Page No.
1.1 Physical characteristic and material content of Kelantan
Dinar and Dirham
3
2.1 Characteristic of various coins
14
2.2 List of merits and demerits of existing material content
detection techniques
22
2.3 Advantages and disadvantages among sine wave of
oscillators
35
2.4 Comparison between various Artificial Intelligence
Techniques
50
2.5 Comparison study between different forecasting techniques
53
4.1 Transient Response Time for various combinations of R1
and R2 resistors
88
4.2 Formatted data for ANN input
89
4.3 Properties of coils used for diameter effects analysis
experiment
91
4.4 Various coil diameters analysis experiments
92
4.5 Frequency analysis experiment results
95
4.6 Analysis of oscillation frequency shift for various coins 100
4.7 Travel time of sound wave echo for various diameters of
coin
102
4.8 IR sensor detection sensitivity evaluation
104
4.9 Coefficients obtained for ANN based AR Dinar price
prediction model
107
4.10 Coefficients obtained for ANN based AR Dirham price
prediction model
107
xii
Table No. Page No.
4.11 AR using Yule Walker model coefficients for Dinar price
prediction model
108
4.12 AR using Yule Walker model coefficients for Dirham
prediction model
108
4.13 Performance analysis of AR based ANN model and AR
using Yule Walker model
110
4.14 Performance evaluation results for overall system
113
xiii
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure No. Page No.
1.1 Kelantan Dinar coins 2
1.2 Kelantan Dirham coins
2
1.3 Research methodology flow chart
6
2.1 Indian coins
12
2.2 Induction balance metal discriminator configuration
19
2.3 Inductive Images for composition material tests
20
2.4 Acoustic Analysis Equipment 25
2.5 Discriminator base on four coils configuration
26
2.6 Eddy current illustration
28
2.7 Effect of impurity content on copper material
31
2.8 Electromagnetic induction circuit 31
2.9 Basic feedback system block diagram 32
2.10 Generalized version of LC oscillator
35
2.11 Colpitts Oscillator circuit
36
2.12 Hartley Oscillator circuit 37
2.13 Clapp oscillator 37
2.14 Wien Bridge oscillator 38
2.15 Phase shift oscillator 39
2.16 Colpitts crystal oscillator 39
2.17 Clapp crystal oscillator 40
2.18 Multi Layer Network (MLN) structure 40
xiv
2.19 Nine bits binary string of chromosome 42
2.20 Flow chart of GA process 42
2.21 Block diagram of a forecasting system 45
2.22 „Best fit line‟ across historical data of gold price data 47
3.1 Coin analysis system 58
3.2 Coin prediction system
58
3.3 Common base Colpitts oscillator
59
3.4 Small signal model for BJT
60
3.5 Equivalent circuit of Colpitts oscillator
60
3.6 Small-signal model of proposed Colpitts oscillator 61
3.7 Operation principle of Colpitts oscillator 62
3.8 Thevenin equivalent of oscillator
63
3.9 BJT Large signal analysis
64
3.10 Large-signal model of oscillator
64
3.11 Chromosome combination of R1 and R2 bits length
67
3.12 Block diagram of forward phase of backpropagation
algorithm
68
3.13 Thermal characteristic for various classes of capacitors
70
3.14 Test coins used for eddy current test parameters selection
experiment
71
3.15 Methodology used for coil design and test frequency
selection
74
3.16 Ultrasonic sensor
74
3.17 L- shaped‟ slider
75
3.18 Diameter measurement methodology
76
3.19 Infrared sensor switch 77
xv
3.20 Coin analysis platform 78
3.21 Base block design 78
3.22 Coin analysis system prototype 79
3.23 Flow chart of coin detection algorithm 80
3.24 AR model representation 81
3.25 Time series of normalized data 82
3.26 Inputs price for prediction model
82
3.27 ANN-based AR model block diagram 83
4.1 Simulation of Colpitts oscillator waveform
96
4.2 Coil used for experiment 1 91
4.3 Coil used for experiment 2 91
4.4 Coil used for experiment 3 92
4.5 Former for winding the coil
94
4.6 Colpitts oscillator design 97
4.7 Output signal simulation
97
4.8 Oscillator and signal conditioning circuit
98
4.9 The oscillator output (green line) and conditioned output
(red line)
98
4.10 Output signal obtained from eddy current sensor
99
4.11 The procedures to insert the test coin for diameter analysis 101
4.12 Adjustable Screw for varying the detection range
103
4.13 Coin analysis platform without coin 104
4.14 One Dirham coin inside coin analysis platform 104
4.15 20 Dirham coin inserted inside coin analysis platform 105
4.16 Slider located under IR sensor 105
4.17 DnD coin price 106
4.18 Actual and predicted Dinar price (in normalized form) for
31 days
108
xvi
4.19 Predicted Dirham price for July 2012 109
4.20 Flow chart of coin detection and prediction system 111
4.21 Coins detection and price prediction system setup 111
4.22 Coin detection and price prediction system architecture 112
4.23 Output for one Dirham test coin
113
4.24 Output for two Dirham test coin
113
4.25 Output for five Dirham test coin
113
4.26 Output for ten Dirham test coin
114
4.27 Output for 20 Dirham test coin
114
4.28 Output for one Rupee test coin
114
4.29 Output for 10 Yen test coin
114
4.30 Output for 500 Yen test coin
115
4.31 Output for 50 Sen test coin
115
xvii
LIST OF SYMBOLS
𝛼 Adaptive coefficient of output layer activation function
𝑎𝑘 kth
coefficient of Autoregressive model
𝐴𝑃 Actual price
𝛽j adaptive coefficient of jth
hidden neuron activation
function
𝐶 Capacitance
𝑐 Speed of sound
𝐷1 Diameter of test specimen
𝐷2 Diameter of the coil
𝐸 Prediction error
𝑓𝑒 Instantaneous frequency
𝑓𝑡 Initial test frequency
𝐹𝐸 Current gain of transistor
𝐼𝐵 Bias current
𝐼𝑐 Collector current
𝐿 Inductance
𝜂 Fill factor ratio
𝑃𝑃 Predicted price
𝑅𝐸 Emitter resistance
𝑅𝐸 Relative error
𝑆 Relative distance
𝑉𝐵𝐸 Base emitter voltage drop
xviii
𝑉𝑘 kth
of chromosome
𝑉𝑇𝐻 Thevenin equivalent voltage
𝒘 Synaptic weight
𝑥 Input data
𝑋𝑛𝑒𝑤 Normalized data
𝑦(𝑛)
Next day price
𝑍 Impedance
xix
ABBREVIATIONS
AC Alternating Current
AI Artificial Intelligence
ANFIS Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
ANN Artificial Neural Network
ANN-Q Artificial Neural Networks- Quantitative
AR Autoregressive
ARIMA Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average
ARMA Auto- Regressive Moving Average
BP Back Propagation
CIC Complex Induced Current
DC Direct Current
DnD Dinar and Dirham
ELM Extreme Learning Machine
EMI Electromagnetic Induction
ERN Elman neural network
GA Genetic Algorithm
IACS International Annealed Copper Standard
LIHaS Linearly Integrated Hall sensor array
LM Levenberg-Marquardt
LP Linear Prediction
MA Moving Average
MAE Mean Absolute Error
xx
MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MCP Market Clearing Price
MCP Market Clearing Price
MFL Magnetic Flux Leakage
MLN Multi Layer Network
MSE Mean Square Error
NDT Non Destructive Techniques
NPO Negative Positive Zero
PCB Printed Circuit Board
PSO Particle Swarm Optimization
RBF Radial Basis Function
RBN Radial Basis Network
RMS Root Mean Square
RMSE Root Mean Square Error
SARIMA Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
SCG Scaled Conjugate Gradient
SQUID Sensors Based on Quantum Effect
SVM Support Vector Machine
SWG Standard Wire Gauge
XRF X-ray fluorescent
1
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
Money plays an important role in the economy of any country since it serves as a
medium of exchange in daily business and human transaction. Traditionally, coins
have been used as money for trading purposes. A great number of materials such as
gold, silver and other materials have been used practically and experimentally in the
production of coins for circulation (Clayton, n. d.). During earlier civilizations, even
before the arrival of Islam and Christianity, gold and silver were used for trade and
exchange of commodities. After the advent of Islam, Prophet Muhammad S.A.W and
companions maintained the usage of gold and silver as medium of exchange. The first
standardized Islamic Dirham was introduced during the Khalifate of Uthman era. The
Islamic Dinar content of 22k gold (917) is equivalent to 4.25 grams. Meanwhile,
standardized Islamic Dirham content of pure silver is equivalent to 3.0 grams
(“Islamic Dinar”, n. d.). Relatively, Dirham has a lower value compared to Dinar.
Dinar and Dirham (DnD) have been used throughout the Islamic caliphate ruling time
as an Islamic official currency among the Muslims.
In 2003, the former Malaysian Prime Minister, Tun Dr Muhammad Mahathir
expressed the idea to re-introduce the Gold and Silver Coins system (Vadillo, 2002).
In addition, there are many people such as Vadillo (Vadillo, n. d.), Hossein (Hossein,
n. d), Meera (Meera, 2002), Sanusi (Sanusi, 2002) and Hamid (Hamid and Nordin,
2002) actively rising this shariah Islamic monetary system based on DnD coinage
idea. In Malaysia, the state of Kelantan re-introduced the DnD coins in ten
2
denominations on August 12th
2010 (Malaysia‟s Kelantan state, n. d.). Kelantan‟s
Gold coins consist of half, one, two, five and eight Dinar and Kelantan‟s Dirham
comprising of one, two, five, ten and twenty Dirhams denominations. Figure 1.1 and
Figure 1.2 show series of Kelantan state Dinar and Dirham coins minted by World
Islamic Mint (WIM). As they are still in the introductory phase, these bimetallic coins
are mainly used for payment of zakat, barter trading, dowry and other similar usage
before they can be used in a full fledge monetary system sometime in the future.
Figure 1.1: Kelantan Dirham coins (“Kelantan Golden”, n. d.)
Figure 1.2: Kelantan Dirham coins (Sulong, n. d.)
3
The physical characteristic and material content of all these coins are listed in the
Table 1.1
Table 1.1
Physical characteristic and material content of Kelantan Dinar and Dirham (“World
Islamic”, n. d.)
Denominations Weight(g) Diameter(mm) Material contents
Kelantan Dinar
0.5 Dinar 2.125 16
917 Gold 1 Dinar 4.25 21
2 Dinar 8.5 22
5 Dinar 21.25 25
8 Dinar 34 32
Kelantan Dirham
1Dirham 2.975 22
999 silver 2 Dirham 5.98 25
10 Dirham 29.83 41
20 Dirham 59.5 50
Instability of fiat money, inflection and increasing trend of a gold and silver
price has increased the awareness among people to invest in gold and silver in order to
store their money against non abating inflation (Billah, n. d.). One of the major
challenges to use Dinar and Dirham is that counterfeit coins can be made easily by
using modern technologies which may lead to suspicion in the transaction of Dinar
and Dirham. Even though human eyes can easily recognize the pattern and size of the
coin, the major challenge is to know the content of materials inside the counterfeit
coin. There are two basic techniques for coin testing comprising of destructive and
non destructive techniques. Destructive technique is a method to test or examine the
coin by disturbing it physical property such as scratch the coin to test the purity of
gold inside the coin. On the other hand, nondestructive testing (NDT) is an
examination or test performed on coin without changing or altering that object in
4
anyway. On the other aspect, even though gold and silver prices are more stable than
fiat money, gold prices also fluctuate based on current situations of demand and
supply which subsequently causes changes of its daily price. Thus, investors need to
have general prediction knowledge to know the suitable time to trade their gold and
silver coins. Generally, forecasting activity can be divided into three relevant classes,
namely short term, medium term and long term forecasting. Short term forecast
activity concentrates on predicting unknown values of price for a short period of time.
These periods include few minutes, hours, or days. Monthly forecast activity falls into
medium term while long term forecast activity may cover period of one to a few years.
Short term forecasting is informative for profit maximization, while medium term
price forecasting is useful for negotiations of bilateral contract between suppliers and
consumers. Long term forecasting is a valuable tool to make future investment
decision (Shafiee and Topal, 2002) Various prediction methods have been suggested
comprising of traditional method such as ARIMA and linear regressive technique and
modern methods such as the application of Artificial Neural Network and Genetic
Algorithm.
1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE
Many contemporary Islamic economists believe that dinar and dirham are a desirable
alternative of money viewed from social, economic, politic and religious perspectives
(Billah, n. d). However, despite various efforts for re-introducing Dinar and Dirham
into practical application, critical and fatal blow have already been noticed in terms of
coin counterfeiting. For example, one of the local banks that provide Islamic pawn-
broking (Ar-Rahnu) service lost RM 75 million due to unconsciously purchasing fake
gold from several customers (Lim and Camoens, 2012). Consequently, the transaction
