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Development of Common Baltic EnergyMarket
Uldis Bariss, CFO of Latvenergo
Agenda
n Brief introduction of Latvenergo
n Latvenergo in Lithuania
n Shaping Baltic market – where we stand
n Price expectations in 2011
2
3
Latvenergo Group in brief
Financial
Customers
General
Technological
§ Fully owned by the Republic of Latvia§ Integrated energy utility engaged in
§ Generation§ Transmission§ Distribution§ Supply§ Telecommunications & IT
§ Around 5000 employees
§ Installed electricity generation capacities:§ Hydro – 1526.7 MW
§ Thermal – 806 MW
§ Length of power lines§ Transmission – 5,235 km
§ Distribution – 100,333 km
§ Energy produced (2009)§ Electricity– 487 127 8 MWh§ Thermal – 237 215 1 MWh
§ About 1 million customers connected
(M EUR) 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sales 415 515 677 712
Assets 923 1872 2391 2417
Investments 176 315 280 149
4
Generation&sourcing
n Latvenergo Group is one of leadingelectricity and thermalenergy generating utilities in Baltics
n More than 75% of electricity isgenerated in the power plants ofLatvenergo Group:n Daugava HPP’s 1527 MWn Riga CHPP’s 806 MW
n Latvenergo Group trades with Estonia,Russia and Finland
n The diverse energy sources ensurecontinuous supply of electricity
Latvenergo in Lithuania
n Latvenergo represented by Latvenergo Prekyba UAB
n Turnover: >40M EUR (2010 estimate)n Share capital: 98 500 EURn HQ location: Vilnius
n Electricity sold: >500 GWh (2010 estimate)n Customers served: >130 (actual)n Market share: 5,2% (jan-jul, actual)
5
Continuous customer base growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep
Customers Market share
6
Some of our customers
7
Fragmented market limits NPS participation
8
§ Limited EE-LVtransmission capacity
§ Limited generation inLT/LV
§ EE-LV ATC congested insummer months
Unbalanced generation creates congestionsduring summer
9
Deficit
Congestion
60%
Surplus40%
Baltic region electricity prices
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jūn Jūl Aug Sep
EUR/
MW
h
Electricity prices, 2010
Nord Pool Finland Nord Pool Estlink (Estonia)* Baltpool (Lithuania)
*Price without peak on 24.08.2010 (averageday price 462 EUR/MWh)
Prices from 01.04.2010-30.09.2010
44.7 EUR/MWh
~ -3 EUR/MWh*
~ +4 EUR/MWh
10
Global trends affect electricity price
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
02.01.2007 02.07.2007 02.01.2008 02.07.2008 02.01.2009 02.07.2009 02.01.2010 02.07.2010
USD
/bar
rel
EUR/
MW
h
Oil and electricity prices
Nord Pool System 2011, EUR/MWh NYMEX Brent Jan 2011, USD/barell
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
02.01.2007 02.07.2007 02.01.2008 02.07.2008 02.01.2009 02.07.2009 02.01.2010 02.07.2010
EUR
/t
EUA, Dec 2011
11
Electricity price forecast on Nord Pool and BaltPool
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mai
Jūn Jūl
Aug
Sep
Okt
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mai
Jūn Jūl
Aug
Sep
Okt
Nov
Dec
2010 2011
EUR/
MW
h
Nord Pool Finland forward Baltpool (Lithuania) statistical
Baltpool (Lithuania) forecast
48 EUR/MWh
52 EUR/MWh
Nord Pool System, EUR/MWh 46.0Nord Pool CfD Finland, EUR/MWh 2.0
Nord pool Finland, EUR/MWh 48.0
12
BEMIP
n Abolish regulated prices to 35% of customer marketsof 3 Baltic states (done)
n Public use of Estlink (done)n Nord Pool Spot Estonia price area (done)
Next goalsn Pan-Baltic day-ahead and intra-day market (2011-
2013)n Full opening of the retail market (2013-2015)
13
14
Ačiū už dėmesį!