Accepted Manuscript

Title: Development of an Additive Manufacturing TechnologyScenario for Opportunity Identification—The case of Mexico

Authors: David A. Arcos-Novillo, David Guemes-Castorena

PII: S0016-3287(16)30174-4DOI: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.futures.2017.05.001Reference: JFTR 2217

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Received date: 6-6-2016Revised date: 7-4-2017Accepted date: 1-5-2017

Please cite this article as: David A.Arcos-Novillo, David Guemes-Castorena, Development of an Additive Manufacturing TechnologyScenario for Opportunity Identification—The case of Mexico,Futureshttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.05.001

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TITLE Development of an Additive Manufacturing Technology Scenario for Opportunity Identification – The case of Mexico AUTHORS David A. Arcos-Novilloa and David Güemes-Castorenaa,*

a Tecnologico de Monterrey, Campus Monterrey, Ave. Eugenio Garza Sada 2501, Monterrey, N.L., México, 64849

Tel: +52 81 83582000 Ext. 5182, e-mail: A00816469@itesm.mx, davidarcos@yahoo.com, guemes@itesm.mx

* Corresponding author. E-mail address: guemes@itesm.mx

Highlights

A structured methodology was developed for the for opportunity identification. Additive manufacturing market, product, technology, and capacities evolution

were analyzed. A scenario was developed by analyzing global and regional trends. Clusters development may push Additive Manufacturing Technology

development in Mexico.

Abstract

This study presents a Technological Roadmap for Additive Manufacturing Technology – also known as 3D printing –, which has been elaborated by the combination of three methodologies: technological surveillance, technological road mapping, and structural analysis. The resulting methodology allowed to establish landmarks in the future evolution of the technology selected at market, product, technology and capacities levels in a particular region, a specific scenario for Mexico.

Additive Manufacturing Technology is an advanced manufacturing process different from the traditional subtracting manufacturing methods. This technology has generated great expectation in the last years, and a great future impact in the technology is anticipated; many authors think that the Additive Manufacturing Technology is the next “great thing”, similar to the development of the semiconductor, the computer or the Internet.

The worldwide Additive Manufacturing Technology industry trends were compared with data corresponding to the state of the art in Mexico, in order to unfold a roadmap for the developed scenario which allowed to determine possible stages focused on taking advantage of the technology and identifying opportunities for Additive Manufacturing Technology in the country, in terms of its use and research and development.

1. Introduction

Additive Manufacturing is the process of joining materials to make three-dimensional objects from computer digital models by using a machine; the process is usually developed layer upon layer unlike traditional subtractive manufacturing methods. The term 3D printing is much more popular, and is commonly used as a synonym for Additive Manufacturing Technologies (AMT) (Wohlers & Caffrey, 2013).

On March 11, 1986, the United States granted the first patent related to AMT; the register number 4,575,330 corresponds to an "Apparatus for production of three-dimensional objects by Stereo lithography", and its inventor was Charles Hull (USA Patent No. 4,575,330, 1986). The last of the original patents of this technique recently expired (Basiliere, Market Guide for 3D Printer Manufacturers, 2016).

The growth of this technology was slow during the first two decades; however, the 3D printing market has expanded dramatically since 2012, with the participation of independent creators, hobbyists and early adopters, who generated much publicity on the subject (Basiliere, Market Guide for 3D Printer Manufacturers, 2016). Despite this great progress, Wohlers & Caffrey (Wohlers & Caffrey, 2013) point out that it just has been seen the tip of the iceberg of what is possible to do with this knowledge. Most common advantages of AMT are: time-to market speed increase, prototyping cost reduction, complex customization, inventory reduction (Basiliere, Burton, Kutnick, Shaffer, & Shanler, 2016) and sustainability advantages (Ford & Despeisse, 2016).

Considering the advantages that surrounds to this technology, in this study it is considered the possible technical, economic and social effects that AMT can generate, and an application to Mexico´s case, through the use of the Technological Surveillance, the elaboration of a Technological Roadmap for a specific scenario, and the use of Structural Analysis, as a way to identify future opportunities drivers for innovation within the AMT context (Sarpong & Maclean, 2011).

Some researchers (Popell & Merrill Smith, 2015) indicate some limitations that affect the present adoption of the AMT: a) limited size of construction; b) still poor range of materials of impression by device; c) still low printing speeds; d) need of more robust software to handle digital designs; e) possible governmental restrictions; f) need of standards and certifications of products, processes and materials (Baseliere, 2016); and g) even medical problems that could be associated to the handling of the new devices (Ryan & Hubbard, 2016).

The objective of this study was to develop a scenario for AMT opportunity identification in Mexico; therefore, this study has been divided in sections: section 2 describes the current state of AMT.

Section 3 describes the methodology used in this study, and section 4 the results (market, product, technology, and skills projections) in the form of a roadmap. Section 5 explains the Mexican AMT scenario, and lastly, section 6 closes with the conclusions and recommendations of the research.

2. Current state of the additive manufacturing technology and situation of the technological innovation in Mexico

According to Gartner, the growth of AMT occurs because manufacturers have taken to market better versions of its printers, with a better printing quality and a wider range of printable materials being introduced. At the same time, the expiration of the first patents of AMT has helped individuals and companies to create their own versions of 3D printers, with plastic extrusion technology, at very affordable prices (Basiliere, Halpern, Burt, & Shanler, 2014).

As stated by Wohlers & Caffrey (Wohlers & Caffrey, 2013) North America is the world leader in the adoption of the AMT (40%), Europe is second (29%) followed by Asia/Pacific region (26%); 3D printing devices installed in other regions gain 5% of participation. In the case of 3D printing market in Mexico, it is still incipient and is very focused to the commercial production of prototypes, toys, etc., mainly due to the lack of knowledge of the technology potential (Uribe, 2015). The International Trade Administrations ranks Mexico in the 15th position for US manufacturing exports, while its ranks are 1st in Machine tool cutting, forming parts and industrial molds; and its 2nd in welding and soldering equipment (International Trade Administration, 2016).

2.1 Additive manufacturing effects

The evolution of the technology adoption as a component of innovation begins with the firsts 3D printers creating prototypes since the end of 1980s; in the late 1990s the AMT was used to manufacture different types of molds and fixtures, accelerating traditional manufacturing processes, but still without taking part in the direct manufacture of goods; during the second half of the 2000s, with lower prices for 3D printers, final parts were made with this technique, and not only traditional processes were accelerated but there was a possibility of creating new products, with better characteristics than the previous ones; finally, the last years were characterized by the emergence of home 3D printers, which allowed final consumers to create their own goods at home, in such circumstance, AMT changed the traditional supply chain (Chen, 2016) (Rayna & Striukova, 2015) – by eliminating inventory.

Weller, Kleer y Piller (Weller, Kleer, & Piller, 2015) identified four principal characteristics for AMT: first, this technology refers to a universal manufacturing process that can build goods from digital models; second, customization and flexibility are free, which means that product design and volume of production can be modified with no extra costs; third, there are no additional costs related to the complexity of the design; and fourth, functionally integrated products can potentially reduce assembly work.

The ASTM has classified AMT within seven different technologies shown in table 1. As can be seen, each technology covers distinct manufacturing processes and materials. It should be noted that as

research in this field continues, it is highly likely the inclusion of new technologies in the future (Basiliere, Market Guide for 3D Printer Manufacturers, 2016).

AMT enables the creation of cheaper products faster, with complex geometry and even some products impossible to make with traditional processes; also it allows to generate efficient supply chains, pushing the production to the consumption point, diminishing inventories (Cearly, Walker, & Blosch, 2015). As result, the beginning of a transition to new processes of design and production is experimented to the interior of several industries (Basiliere, Halpern, Burt, & Shanler, 2014).

Wohlers & Caffrey (Wohlers & Caffrey, 2013) infer from their research that AMT is mainly used in the following industries: consumer products/electronics (22%), automotive (19%), medical-dental (16%), industrial/business machines (13%), and aerospace (10%) industries. Basiliere, Halpern, Lu & Eldred (Basiliere, Halpern, Lu, & Eldred, 2015) add to the list the industries of education, construction, electronics, food and beverages and R&D as another important market niches. According to Gartner (Basiliere, Market Guide for 3D Printer Manufacturers, 2016), the companies’ motivators for using 3D printing devices are: generation or improvement of products (prototyping, product development, and innovation), supply chain improvement, efficiency, etc.

Table 1. Additive Manufacturing Technologies

Technology Definition Process Materials

Binder jetting Particles of powdered material are selectively joined by using a liquid bonding agent.

3D Printing Metals, polymers, ceramic, composites

Directed energy deposition

Materials are fused by melting while they are being deposited; the fusion is obtained by using a “focused thermal energy” such as a laser, electron beam or plasma arc.

Laser metal deposition (LMD) Metals

Laser engineered net shaping (LENS) Metals

Electron beam AM (EBAM) Metals

Material extrusion Material is dispensed through a nozzle or orifice in order to be selectively joined.

Fused deposition modeling (FDM)

Thermoplastics, waxes

Material jetting Material in fine droplets is deposited in order to be selectively joined.

Multijet modeling (MJM) Resins, waxes

Powder bed fusion

Particles of powdered material deposited in a bed are selectively fused by using a thermal energy.

Selective laser sintering (SLS) Metals, thermoplastics

Selective laser melting (SLM) Metals Electron beam melting (EBM) Metals

Sheet lamination Sheets of material are bonded to build an object.

Laminated object manufacturing (LOM)

Metals, paper, thermoplastics

Stereolithography Liquid photopolymer in a vat is selectively cured by light-activated polymerization.

Stereo lithography (SLA) Resins, waxes, ceramics

Sources: (Basiliere, Technology Overview for Binder Jet 3D Printing. G00272156, 2015), (Shah & Basiliere, 2014), (Huang, Leu, Mazumder, & Donmez, 2015) and (Jenkins, 2015)

Gartner´s report states the aspects that must be observed in the immediate future for the consolidation of the AMT are: protection of copyright, new business opportunities and reconsideration of the traditional processes of manufacture and supply chain (Cearly, Walker, & Blosch, 2015) (Chen,

2016). On this same perspective, Earls & Baya (Earls & Baya, 2014) add that AMT has the following aims: (1) to merge several components in a single final product and in a single process; and (2) to maximize and expedite the production in the stages of development, manufacturing and testing.

2.2 Technological innovation and industry in Mexico

The fourth goal of the National Development Plan 2013–2018 of the Mexican Government (Presidencia de la República, 2013)a), establishes the need of a prosperous Mexico, with sustained growth of its productivity, economic stability and generation of equal opportunities. For this aim, the government promotes a suitable infrastructure and the access to supplies, because these elements would stimulate the competition and the access to capital and knowledge to companies and individuals. Within this goal, a definition of modern norms is expected in order to promote fair competition, followed by innovation and growth of the strategic sectors; in brief, it is intended to generate the necessary conditions to obtain economic development. In the Innovation Development Program of 2013–2018, PRODEINN –from its acronym in Spanish,– the major industrial promotion policy is to boost innovation in the productive sectors based on knowledge (Presidencia de la República, 2013)b).

The objectives of the PRODEINN, have been defined and aligned to the goals established in the National Development Plan 2013–2018 and are detailed next:

o To develop a policy of industrial promotion and innovation that fosters a balanced economic growth by sectors, regions and companies.

o To design a policy that pushes the innovation in commerce and service sectors, with emphasis in knowledge based companies.

o To drive entrepreneurs and to fortify the development of the SMEs and social sector organizations.

o To promote larger competition in the market and to advance towards an integral regulation improvement.

o To increase the international flows of commerce and investment, as well as national exports.

The studies presented thus far provide the context for our study, aiming at identifying possible futures for the AMT future and its application to Mexico. The methodology will be described in the next section.

3. Methodology

In order to develop a technological roadmap, it is required to observe the scientific and technological system surroundings, and by means of its analysis, to establish the present and future economic impacts to continue with the proposed model of exploration; this was executed through the application of the Technological Surveillance tool (Delgado, et al., 2010).

The Mexican Institute of Normalization and Certification (Instituto Mexicano de Normalización y Certificación, IMNC, 2012) indicates that before starting the technological surveillance it is necessary to identify the system surroundings and the surveillance high-priority factors; the implementation steps for a technological surveillance program established by the IMNC are:

a. Definition of the surveillance strategy. b. Determination of the information sources:

(i) location; (ii) interpretation and information storage; (iii) analysis and reporting. c. Decision making. d. Action to implement. e. Evaluation and processes improvement.

The application of the Technological Surveillance tool on the AMT allows to know its effects over different industries, and to project these effects. The aim is to establish a starting point for the roadmap.

A roadmap sets a bridge between a current industry and a possible future scenario, since this tool can be used to analyze trends and drivers through the industry and the market, in order to establish goals for such system; in this sense it is possible to explore the evolution of a technology and its potential market and retrospectively to establish up-to-date challenges for local research (Phaal, Farrukh, & Probert, Customizing Roadmapping, 2004).

As a result of this combination a Strategic Roadmap is created, from which it can be defined a focused technological roadmap. For the present study the Structural Analysis tool, that applies the Impact Matrix Cross- Reference Multiplication Applied to a Classification, was used; internal and external factors were identified within the analyzed region, and the influence of each factor over the others was compared in a direct and indirect manner by using the referred matrix and analyzed with the Micmac software. The Structural Analysis reveals the influence of the indirect actions of the studied factors – which are not always obvious –, so it is possible to identify its driving potential within the studied system and to establish a rank of importance for the variables (Godet, 2007).

By combining the above methodologies, we complemented their utility in order to generate an opportunity scenario that outlines a reasonable link between the current state of the technology, industry and market, with a future scenario of technological innovation. Figure 1 graphically describes the methodology used in this study. The arrows represent data/information that has been processed and continues thru each of the activities, represented by the boxes. The roadmap is the result of this process, and it guides the decision making process based on the future scenarios.

Figure 1. Methodology: Technological surveillance + TRM + Structural Analysis

Following is the description for the whole methodology, systematically, starting with the technological surveillance methodology, and continuing with the roadmap, which includes the structural analysis.

Description for the technological surveillance methodology:

a. Surveillance strategy: an exploratory strategy is utilized to identify the importance of the additive manufacturing; in this case a world-wide study is completed first, and later the Mexican case. Since the future will be mapped, time periods of 3 years were selected only for classification purposes, starting in 2016, the initial year of the roadmap.

b. Information sources location: secondary sources of information were used (technological research specialized publications, magazines, books, patents, etc.) The retrieved information was catalogued, debugged and classified.

c. Interpretation and storage: information was sorted in order to find outstanding technologies and market trends referring to the AMT, related technologies and benefited industries.

d. Analysis and reporting: the report is issued after an analysis of the data, considering possible customer requirements. In this case, a TRM was developed.

Steps c and d of the stage of technological surveillance include activities shared with the methodology of road mapping, therefore these steps link to the next tool.

Description for the road mapping methodology:

1. Market: the aim of this stage is to identify and to prioritize markets and market drivers in the current scenario and towards the future.

2. Product: connect markets, products and product strategies throughout time. 3. Technology: identification of possible solutions and technological platforms aligned to the

products that markets need. 4. a) Roadmap: this is linking of the technological resources with market and products

opportunities: it is the strategy definition. From the strategic roadmap, the Structural Analysis tool is applied to define the appropriate scenario on which to work:

i. Important factors selection: internal & external factors according to local conditions.

ii. Factors definition: factors are defined according to the proposed scenario. iii. Structural Analysis: it is based on the crossed impacts matrix. By using the factors,

we determine the impact of each factor on the others. For each pair of variables, the following questions are asked: is there a relationship of direct influence between variable i and variable j? If there is not, one puts 0. If there is, one must ask if this relationship of direct influence is low (1), medium (2) high (3) or potential (P).

iv. Software application: MICMAC version 6.1.2 was used in order to generate the influence / dependency analysis chart.

v. Key factors identification: definition of the driving variable and the goal in the map. The more influential variable is identified and it determines

vi. Determination of a route: adapted to the industry /market background.

The obtained result allows to return to the roadmap with a more focused vision.

4. b) Roadmap: diagram the relevant selection of a map by determining the road to be followed. e. Decision making and action: related to the roadmap users, who use the roadmap as a

decision making tool. f. Evaluation and improvement: in equal circumstances, any necessity of continuing analysis

will fall to the roadmap users, according to its individual requirements.

It is necessary to stand out that the proposed model has been constructed from tools previously defined, therefore during the exploratory analysis it was necessary to evaluate the incorporation of additional elements to facilitate the identification of trends and key elements, specifically for Mexico.

4. Results

With the intention of orienting this research towards the development of an opportunity identification, the results are reported on aspects related to the market, products and technology, and additionally the variables of skills and knowledge have been included too because it is the base of development for almost any technology.

Following the methodology, this research has been built by mainly using secondary sources, among which may be mentioned several academic journals, research and prospective publications, press notes, etc. like: Atlantic Council, Fortune Magazine, Sierra College, Forbes Magazine, Leading Edge Forum, Industrial Heating, European Commission, Seventh Framework Programme, International Journal of Current Engineering and Technology, Intellectual Property Office of the United Kingdom, Ministry of Economy, Commerce and Industry of Japan, Modern Machine Shop, among others; also it was used consultors publications as: Wohlers Associates, Gartner, Euromonitor, PwC, Deloitte, and

Global TechCast. In the appendix, a graphical summary of the sources can be consulted, aligned with the information found in the roadmap.

The Results are described in alignment with the rows of the roadmap.

4.1 Market projections This section presents the findings for selected future market projections.

Healthcare 3D printing began to be used in the healthcare field for the creating of models of organs, dental pieces, bones, etc. for educative and research aims, and for surgical procedures planning (de Beer, 2013). Healthcare industry has become a highly promising application for the AMT; it has been successfully developed osseous, dental and prosthetics implants custom made, in addition the results obtained in various investigations demonstrate the technology has great potential to improve the life quality. Further research is needed, but previous results in the creation of printed tissues and organs raises a huge outlook of the healthcare benefits (Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012). Wohlers & Caffrey (Wohlers & Caffrey, 2013) rank the medical-dental industry as the third stronger sector behind the consumer products/electronics and the automotive industries.

Automotive industry This industry along with the Aerospace one are considered “early adopters” of the AMT (Burton & Walker, 2015). The Industrial Heating journal (Miller, 2014) indicates that this technology has been widely used to create prototypes, accessories and even functional parts resistant to friction and to high temperatures, and made with different materials; the authors emphasize the case Urbee, a two passengers automobile, 3D printed by more than 50% of it, and whose developers look for major funding to initiate their commercial production.

Aerospace industry Companies such as Airbus, have begun to use 3D printing for the manufacture of several parts like some staples of subjection, that have achieved lighter components and consequently fuel saving. About the future, General Electric aeronautics representatives affirm that current generations will see jet engines 3D printed by 50% (de Beer, 2013).

This technology has been proven in several opportunities by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in this sense Reed Miller comments (Miller, 2014): successful tests of rockets made with some printed components have been made; the impression of mini satellites is investigated to facilitate and to lower the price of the data transmission; 3D printing has been tested in zero gravity for further use in the space, and in this respect the author anticipates that the use of this technology would play an important role in long space trips – to Mars, for example. Popell & Merrill Smith (Popell & Merrill Smith, 2015) add that the European Space Agency investigates the use of the lunar dust like raw material for 3D printing, in order to facilitate the manufacture of objects in a hypothetical moon base.

Manufacturing Industry A remarkable advantage of the AMT over manufacturing consists in the possibility of avoiding extended machinery stoppage caused by damages, since it would be feasible to print spare parts immediately, which means important savings in inventories – because spare parts would only be made when necessary (Miller, 2014). This concept also allows extending the equipment useful life, because discontinuation would not be an obstacle for the users any more, and would enable the creation of vehicles (terrestrial, naval or aerial) self-repairable, particularly useful for exploratory and/or military needs (Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012).

According to Neal de Beer (de Beer, 2013) the next 3D printing products coming into the market would be devices whose electronic circuits would be made along with their batteries and their covers in a same 3D printing process. On the other hand Srinivasan & Bassan (Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012) indicate that this technology will generate an important time reduction of arrival of products to the market, wider dissemination of concepts of “open design” and "product customization", drastic changes in the “off-shore” practices of production and radical reformulation of the current supply chain (Chen, 2016).

4.2 Product projections Prices of several 3D printers have lowered enough to an accessible level. According to the analysis performed by David Bourell of the University of Texas the cost of a piece worked with additive manufacturing is mainly composed by the device cost followed by the raw material cost, therefore, when the machines are cheap and fast and the materials more affordable, the sale of 3D printers will be booming (Jenkins, 2015). In Table 2 are shown the price ranges of the different AMT is detailed.

In table 2 it can be seen that the technology with more affordable devices is material extrusion, followed by stereo lithography. The most expensive devices are those of directed energy deposition and powder bed fusion.

Table 2. 3D Printers ranges of prices

Technology Price (USD$) from up to

Material extrusion $500 $400,000 Vat Photopolymerization $1,000 $900,000 Binder jetting $5,000 $1,800,000 Material jetting $25,000 $600,000 Directed energy deposition $200,000 $5,000,000 Powder bed fusion $20,000 $1,800,000 Sheet lamination $9,000 $70,000 Source: Basiliere, Market Guide for 3D printer manufacturers (2016)

Medical devices and advances Basiliere & Shanler (Basiliere & Shanler, Hype Cycle for 3D Printing, 2014, 2014) emphasize the importance of the regulatory processes within this field; according to the authors, in the United States and Europe the first approaches among government, industry and medical representatives have settled down, in order to establish the bases of a transparent development of medical devices. Due to the nature of this industry, medical equipment, and much more implants, prosthesis and similar

printed products, should be subject to greater control and testing following the applicable legislation of each region.

Manufacture of parts of vehicles AMT is used mainly in the following fields within the automotive industry (Giffi, Gangula, & Illinda, 2014):

o Cooling vents for exhausts and emission, made by selective laser melting (SLM). o Pumps and valves for the fluids handling system, made by SLM and electron beam melting

(EBM). o Bumpers and wind breakers, made by selective laser sintering (SLS). o Prototyping, customized tooling and investment casting, made by SLS, SLM, among other

methods.

3D printing of casting and tooling draws attention because these methods are part of traditional manufacturing, however this combination of the traditional and additive manufacturing has brought significant improvements to the production process (Lecklider, 2017). The Ministry of Economy, Commerce and Industry of the Japan (2013) reports that in Japan an important interest exists on this subject from sand mold producers to manufacture dices and parts of greater complexity, due to the possibility of obtaining major precision and shorter times – because there is no need to create previous models; according to the publication, AMT process is used to make sand molds with better heat resistance, and also SLS, SLM and EBM processes to create nickel and titanium alloys molds.

Regarding tooling, Deloitte (Cotteleer, Neier, & Crane, 2014) indicates that these elements are produced in low volumes and complex and specific forms for a particular use, therefore additive manufacturing is obtaining attractiveness for this purpose.

It is expected that the following automotive parts will be created in the near future with AMT (Giffi, Gangula, & Illinda, 2014); (Manghnani, 2015):

o Interiors and seating: manufacture of dashboard and seat frames with stereo lithography (SLA) and SLS.

o Wheels, tires and suspension: manufacture of hubcaps, tires and suspension springs with SLS, SLM and fused deposition modeling (FDM).

o Electronics: manufacture of sensors, single-part control panels, and other embedded components with SLS.

o Frame, body and doors: manufacture of body panels, with SLM. o Powertrain and drivetrain: manufacture of engine functional components with EBM & SLM.

Knowing the critical nature of certain components, because of security requirements, it is not expected that these parts to be replaced for at least 15 years due to the current technical limitations of the technology (Reeves & Mendis, 2015). Nevertheless, Gartner (Basiliere, Burton, Kutnick, Stevens, & Shaffer, Predicts 2016: 3D Printing Disrupts Healthcare and Manufacturing. G00293181, 2015) informs that nowadays several specialized institutions widely use AMT for the creation of prototypes of final useful pieces.

4.3 Technology projections This section presents the findings for selected future technology projections.

AMT Research and Development Additive manufacturing's researching continues in several fields: Gartner foresees the arriving of new technologies like indirect energy deposition, matrix jetting and multi-jet fusion; Siemens (Zistl, 2014) assures that until the beginning of the 2020s the 3D printers will be 50% cheaper and 400% quicker.

Materials 3D printing material mostly used is plastic, but other commonly used materials are: metal alloys, ceramics, glass, paper, wood particles, sand, biocompatible materials, etc. (Rayna & Striukova, 2015).

Materials development for AMT is intense: there is research on materials with amorphous metallic alloys (metals and glass) in Sweden, that in the case of the steel, are twice stronger and ten times more elastic than high quality steel alloys (Miller, 2014). Other remarkable works are made with materials such as: fiber of carbon and titanium, (which physical and mechanical characteristics are well known (Manghnani, 2015),) and thermoplastic based on graphene (Giffi, Gangula, & Illinda, 2014). Finally Gartner (Burke, Cearly, & Walker, 2016) emphasizes the current and future development of the following materials: electro conductor “inks” made of silver particles, reinforced compound materials with carbon fiber, fiberglass and/or Kevlar, which have a greater resistance than the majority of metals commonly used in the manufacture or construction, like aluminum; and, super nickel alloys that stand out for their low weight.

Future expectation, in the short term (2016-2021), includes: cermets – compounds of ceramics and metals that combine the resistance to heat of ceramics with the hardness of metals– and, metamaterials that correspond to a group of materials which characteristics are not found in nature so they obtain their properties from the design of its structure and not from its composition (Diginova, 2014).

There are three main trends related to the evolution of the materials for AMT: first and more important, materials will be much more generic and they will not necessarily be bound to a particular equipment; secondly, materials will be designed to obtain a better performance in the production process; and thirdly, development of materials not only will favor complex geometries production, but also will maintain the material's properties in all the product. On the other hand it is also important to establish the benefits around the creation of products with discontinuous materials, that is to say products with different types of materials, with designed, variable and oriented properties (Diginova, 2014).

PwC (Earls & Baya, 2014) raises that more research is required on the subject for this technology, accordingly its projection for a wide commercial use is expected at the end of this decade.

3D objects digital design, software and hardware

Along with the AMT boom, tools for 3D scanning are closer to consumers at affordable prices. Also basic 3D modeling software for nonprofessional consumers is being developed, although in incipient state. Other tools that take place in the Internet are linked to "co-creation" and "co-design". For Neal de Beer (de Beer, 2013) these elements, plus the availability of 3D objects galleries, mark the trend of the design.

4.4 Skills and knowledge projections This section presents the findings for selected future skills and knowledge projections: legal and ethical aspects, education, and partnerships. The analysis for this section was developed at the worldwide level and at Mexico´s level.

Legal and ethical aspects Considering the world-wide reach of file downloading through the Internet, the objects' 3D printing will take place throughout different countries, reason why securing protection of intellectual property is not as simple as it would be wanted (Neely, 2016) (Wu, 2014). Within the production, it also concerns the levels of responsibility of manufacturers for defective items (Diginova, 2014). Finally, other aspects raise ethical questions, such as the tissues and organs bio-printing, or the printing of firearms or other dangerous articles (Walther, 2015) (Miller, 2014).

Gartner (Shanler & Basiliere, 2015) recommends the following actions to protect the intellectual property on additive manufacturing startups: 1) to assure goods developed by the technology under the existing legislation; 2) to incorporate markers on the models to authenticate them; and, 3) to develop web search engines to compare 3D objects. In addition, it is advisable to develop a digital format that limits the number of times a file can be copied, recorded or printed (Diginova, 2014), for example.

Regarding ethical issues, the recommendation is to develop proactive regulations by means of commercial investigation and continuous analysis of cases that allow the constant evolution of any norm, considering the immature state of these markets (Diginova, 2014).

Finally in relation to the problems of the objects quality, regulations can be established to force the diffusion of printing certificates to ensure the proper use of materials and manufacturing specifications, and/or promoting ISO quality certifications, or similar, to replace this necessity of control (Reeves & Mendis, 2015).

o Legislation in Mexico The current Mexican intellectual property (IP) law was formulated in June 1991, during the government of Carlos Salinas de Gortari, as a requirement for signing the North America Free Trade Agreement. This law has undergone several modifications throughout the time, and at the moment is effective the reform of April 9, 2012 (Congreso de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, 2012). The existing development plan in Mexico (Presidencia de la República, 2013) establishes as a component of the IP objectives to strengthen the presence of Mexico in the world through the participation in international forums and organisms. Within Mexico there is a needed to

simplify IP registration process as a mechanism of knowledge transference towards the productive sector, and there is no proposal to reform current IP law in Mexico regarding the AMT.

Education AMT has been attached to the academy by more than two decades, basically at the research level; with time, some knowledge has been transferred to professional education (Bialy, 2016). The transmission of the technology at more basic levels of the education is still slow, especially to secondary technical education institutions; however costs reduction in AMT could cause a greater penetration at all levels, including primary education. In this sense, Gartner foretells the presence of 3D printers in each classroom by the second half of 2020´s (Basiliere & Shanler, Hype Cycle for 3D Printing, 2014, 2014).

o Education in Mexico According to a report from the OECD, CAF, & Cepal (OCDE, CAF, & CEPAL, 2014) Mexico has reduced some inequities in the education system participation due to performance improvement. Education coverage in Mexico reaches approximately 95% for primary level and 65% for secondary; in terms of higher education, coverage reaches approximately 30%. In this sense the National Development Plan of Mexico (Presidencia de la República, 2013)a), informs that promoting quality educational programs is a recurring requirement in the forums of consultation, and it is necessary to promote science, technology and innovation. The main objectives and strategies established by the Mexican government on this subject are:

- To develop human potential of the Mexicans with quality education. (i) To modernize the infrastructure and the equipment of the educative centers; (ii) To promote the incorporation of new information and communication technologies in

the learning process; - To build pillars with the scientific and technological development and innovation community

for a sustainable economic and social progress. (i) To contribute to the transfer and use of knowledge, linking higher education

institutions and research centers with public, social and private sectors; (ii) To contribute to the strengthening of Mexico's scientific and technological

infrastructure.

The National Development Plan of Mexico (Presidencia de la República, 2013)a) emphasizes that it is important to increase public and private investment in processes of research, development and innovation.

Partnerships There are cases that allow to appreciate the importance of generating bonds among different actors, for example: in China and Singapore the growth of the AMT has generated the promotion of research projects with government sponsorship (Wohlers & Caffrey, 2013), as a result, China is projected as the country with greater rate of 3D printers market growth (Basiliere, Market Guide for 3D Printer Manufacturers, 2016). Several examples exist in the USA too, one of them is the National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute “America Makes”, in which companies, universities, research centers and government institutions participate to develop the technology and to create applications for the industry (Miller, 2014).

o Partnerships in Mexico The Mexican governmental plan to promote scientific and technological development and innovation is focused in two main aspects: first, to strengthen the link between academia and industry, so that the knowledge transfer will be facilitated towards the productive sector; and secondly, to increase the public and private investment in processes of innovation and development (Presidencia de la República, 2013)a).

The most important clusters (groupings of companies in a particular commercial field) of Mexico are detailed in table 3; these are the most promising for today and future market trends, by considering their economic relative weight, and NAFTA importance (Villarreal & Grupo de Desarrollo Regional Tec de Monterrey, 2012).

Table 3. Most promising clusters for Mexico Rank Current situation Future situation

1 Terrestrial and marine transport equipment and its parts Medical, optical and measurement equipment

2 Electronic, computation, communication and signaling equipment Agricultural and greenhouse products

3 Plastic and rubber products Technological research and development services

4 Tourism services Equipment and services for airplanes or space navigation

5 Obtaining and processing of non-metallic ores and fuels

Information, programming, storage and data processing services

6 Foods, drinks, tobacco and confectionery Medical and hospitable services 7 Chemical agents Live animals, meats and products of the sea

8 Obtaining and processing of metallic minerals and metallic products Logistic services

With this information, it is possible to identify the most important clusters that could work with AMT, in the present and future markets.

4.5 Strategic Roadmap

The results obtained from the information analysis are shown as a roadmap in figure 2, and the information sources are shown in the appendix. It is important to highlight that this structured map contains significant information from world-wide trends. The different analyzed factors are found in the rows, and in the columns, the level of factors growth, throughout the time, can be observed by a line whose slope determines the degree of development (from a lower to higher level).

Figure 2. Roadmap for Additive Manufacturing Technology.

5. Mexican AMT scenario

With the aim to identify the most important factors that will drive the generation of the future Mexican scenario, the Structural Analysis tool was used to analyze all the trends information. The selection of the variables was driven by their relevance to the Mexican case; the internal variables are those where the Mexican government / industry can modify the outcome of the variables at will; the external variables are those that are being developed worldwide and the Mexican government / industry may have some influence over the outcome, but cannot modify them at will.

During the factors selection phase the proposed external elements for this scenario were: (1) medical supplies, (2) plastic production and (3) vehicles and spare parts design and manufacture. With the same scheme, the proposed internal factors identified and defined were: (1) government-university-industry –GUI– partnership, (2) law updates and (3) clusters development. All the cases were related to the more important clusters for Mexico and application of AMT. Table 4 presents the information – definition, current status and measurement units – corresponding to the selected internal and external factors.

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 > 2030

Healthcare

Automotive

Aerospace

Manufacture

Printers

Healthcare devices

AM technologies

Materials

Software and Hardware

Legal and ethic issues

Education

Partnerships

Long term

Mar

ket

Prod

uct

Tech

nolo

gySk

ills

and

know

ledg

e

Short term Mid term

Useful models printing

implants development medical support equipment

Design and manufacture

of ligth components

Zero gravity printingAirplanes 50% printed

Space trip 3D printing

Useful parts printing

Molding and tooling Processes and materials estandarization

Production systems change

Multimaterial printing

Living issues printing

Customizing and printing parts

Customizing vehicles

Complex surgeries

Most of vehicle printed

Lowvolume

production

Des ign and prototyping

Self repairing vehicles

with printed spare parts

Osseous and dental implants

Regulation and control

Prices reduction Software design massificationSupport software

Prosthesis

Medical equipment Living tissue and organs printingCus tomization

7 Technologies

New technologies introductionNano 3D printing

Research and testingEstandarization

Generic materials Focus on materialsproperties Metamaterials

Large scale printing

Self-replicating printersScanner 3D

Software supportSoftware development

Digital Protection

Price reduction and speedup

Weapons printing

IP current laws

New technological equipment and material developments

Pilot projects in schools Massification of 3D-P in basic

education

Incursion in profess ional and technical training

Technology transfer programs from universities to basic education and companies

Hardware price reduction

More 3D-Pgrowth rate

Search engines to compare

Joint investment projects

3 decades of academic research

Piracy internet risk

Digital security

Production responsable definitionEvolutive laws

Living tissue and organs printing

3D-P Government-sponsored research

programs

Government, business and University partnerships

Conecting technologiesProcesses and materials

es tandarization Better materials and technics

Table 4. Variables selected for the roadmap analysis in the Mexican scenario

The crossed impacts matrix, shown in table 5, was formulated using the previously defined factors (in table 4). Each factor was related to the others, according to the impact that generates one variable on the others. A group of experts defined the relationships. The used scale was: 0 for no influence; 1 for weak influence; 2 for medium influence; 3 for strong influence; and, P for potential influence (current influence is null but strong influence is foreseen in the future). Table 5 relates how the variables in the rows impact the variables in the columns; for example, it can be read that “Plastic production” (in row 2) has a strong influence on “Vehicles and spare parts” (column 3) with a bolded 3 assigned to this relationship. On the other hand, it can be read that “Vehicles and spare parts” (in row 3) has a weak influence on “Plastic production” (column 2) with an underlined 1 assigned to this relationship.

Factor Medical supplies

Plastic production

Vehicles and spare parts

GUI Partnership Law updates Clusters

development

Definition

Research, development and production of equipment, material and other medical supplies, based on AMT.

Plastics development that serve as raw material for AMT, and as base for the creation of new “metamaterial”.

Design and manufacturing of vehicles and spare parts, leveraged by the use of AMT.

Public- private partnership promotion to stimulate research and innovation, to take advantage of the AMT within the industry.

Full legal institutions focused on ruling new IP aspects related to AMT such as responsibilities and ethics.

Promotion of the AMT use addressed to both growing and mature clusters in the local industry.

Current status

Use of imported technologies; local research in incipient stage.

Local plastics cluster at the mature stage- low use of AMT; new products research still in progress.

Local automotive cluster highly developed; low use of AMT; research programs in execution.

Developing partnerships and programs with several AMT scopes.

IP regulations completed; AMT subject not addressed.

Mature clusters continue to consolidate. AMT arrives to certain fields

Measurement unit

Number of successful research projects.

Number of successful research projects.

Number of successful research projects.

Number of completed programs with clear and defined goals.

Percentage of complete legal structure related to the subject.

Number of clusters that are already using AMT.

Type of variable External External External Internal Internal Internal

Table 5. Crossed Impacts Matrix for the Mexican scenario Critical factors Medical

supplies Plastic

production Vehicles and spare parts

GUI Partnerships

Law updates

Clusters development

Medical supplies 1 0 2 0 1

Plastic production 2 3 1 1 0

Vehicles and spare parts 0 1 2 0 1

GUI Partnerships 2 1 2 2 3

Law updates 0 0 1 P 1

Clusters development P 3 P 3 2

Scale used in this table: 0, no influence; 1, weak influence; 2, medium influence; 3, strong influence; and, P, potential influence (current influence is null but strong influence is foreseen in the future).

The generated values in table 5 were processed by Micmac software, version 6.1.2, developed by Michael Godet, Strategic Prospective professor in the National Conservatory of Arts and Offices in Paris, France. The result is the identification of the key variables by the use of the indirect classification. A graph of influence and dependency is displayed from the Micmac, in which, thanks to the analysis of indirect relations, the variables with major potential of influence (of all the variables) can be identified. Figure 3 presents the result obtained from the analyzed system; four quadrants are formed under the following framework: the horizontal axis shows the dependency of the factors, being the elements located to the left of the average the less dependent; and, the vertical axis determines the influence level, where the elements located above the average exert major influences on the system.

Potential indirect influence/dependency chart in the Mexican scenario

Figure 3. Potential indirect influence/dependency chart in the Mexican scenario

- Dependency +

-

In

fluen

ce

+

Clusters development

GUI Partnerships

Law updates

Plastics production

Medical supplies

Vehicles and spare parts

Elaborated by using MICMAC Version 6.1.2, 2016.

Next, the internal factors – because the government / industry can change them at will – were selected from the Micmac chart considering its importance; according to the model, the variables placed in the quadrant with less dependency, and more influences (the variables in the shaded quadrant), are the most powerful ones and those drive all the system. This variable is “clusters development”; the variable “GUI partnership” is the second variable with higher influence, although it has the highest dependency of all.

The less dependent internal variable is “law updates”, which can be described as a variable that “controls” the quality of the analyzed system, due to the autonomy it possess. After verifying the results of the analysis, the ideal starting point for our system comprises the “clusters development”, for being the internal factor with greater dominion of the system; the technology map will pivot on this variable to delineate the roadmap for the Mexican case.

Proposed scenario based on clusters development

A focalized technology roadmap is proposed for the Mexican automotive industry, in which the advantages of a mature transport cluster are improved. Molding and tooling have been selected because manufacturing these elements with AMT allow taking advantage of the traditional installed capacity for a period of time, and opens a future possibility for the adoption of new digital manufacturing processes (Lecklider, 2017). Once the variables have been defined –starting point and objective of the roadmap– figure 4 shows the pertinent diagram. In figure 4, two alternative routes appear, one for the production of molds and the other for toolboxes (found at the market level). The two routes share their origin in the transport cluster – the resulting variable from the structural analysis tool; the routes take advantage of the existing technologies, reduction of prices of equipment and advances that appear in the original map; they also share the need of IP legal protection and support for delivering quality products. In figure 4, boxes with arrows coming out represent elements that impact other elements; the boxes with arrows coming in, represent elements that are being impacted; and boxes without arrows are elements with no clear impact to the system under study–in this case, the molding and tooling systems.

Note: the arrows represent direct impact from one element to the other. Different colors and shapes for arrows have been

drawn to try to distinguish where they start and end.

Figure 4. Roadmap: Mexican automotive industry scenario.

After analyzing the technology roadmap, we have identified two alternatives for manufacturing molds with AMT:

o For sand molds, AM processes are required, this is with binder jetting technology, which implies an investment up to USD $1,800,000 in equipment.

o For metallic molds (titanium or nickel alloys), SLM, or EBM processes are required, this is with powder bed fusion technology, which implies an investment up to USD $2,000,000 in equipment.

Regarding tooling the options are:

o For metallic tooling (titanium or nickel alloys), SLS, SLM, or EBM, processes are required, this is with powder bed fusion technology, which implies an investment up to USD $2,000,000 in equipment.

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 > 2030

Mar

ket

Automotive

Pro

duct

Manufacture

3D printing technologies

Materials

Legal and ethic issues

Research and capacitation

Partnerships

Skill

s an

d kn

owle

dge

Short term Mid term Long term

Tech

nolo

gies

3D printers prices reduction

Conecting technologies develpment

Processes and materials estandarization

Better materials and technics

Design and manufacture

of ligth components

Processes and materials estandarization

Cus tomizing vehicles Most of vehicle printed

Software design massificationSupport software

7 Technologies

New technologies introductionNano 3D printing

Research and testingEstandarization

Generic materials Focus on materials properties Metamaterials

Large scale printing

Price reduction and speedup

IP current laws

Government,business and

Universitypartnerships

Pilot projects in schools Massification of 3D-P in basic

education

Incursion in professional and technical training Technology transfer programs

from universities to bas ic education and companies

Hardware price reduction

Search engines to compare

Joint investment projects

3 decades of academic research

Piracy internet risk

Digital securityProduction responsable definition

Useful parts printing

Design and prototyping

Low volume

production

Self repairing vehicles

with printed spare parts

Product innovation

Supply chain change

Use of carbon fiber and titanium

Interior and seating (SLA, SLS)

Wheels, tires and suspension (SLS,

SLM, FDM)Electronics (SLS)

Frame, body and doors (SLM)

Powertraing and drivetrain(EBM,

SLM)

Thermoplastics based on graphene

Regulation for spreading accuracyof digital files

Certifications of quality (ISO)

Combination of materials

Evolutive laws

MoldingMultimaterial printing

Clusters with current potential:transportation,

electronics,plastic, tourism,

mining, food.

Tooling

electro-conductive inksReinforcing with fiberglass and / or

kevlar

Polymers, metals, ceramics, resins, thermoplastics

3DP (sand molding)

SLS, SLM & EBM (metals molding)

FDM (tooling)

Cooling vents (SLM), Pumps and valves (SLM, EBM), bumpers and wind breakers(SLS)

o For plastic tooling, fused deposition modeling process is recommended, this is with material extrusion technology, which implies an investment up to USD $400,000 in equipment.

It is important to indicate that the implication of this scenario reveals a risk: the destiny of the AMT in the region could be focused on using the technology in the medium term, and not on the development of new technologies –i.e. being dependent on the available technology.

6. Conclusions and recommendations

In this study, methodologies developed by the Mexican Institute of Normalization and Certification – Technological Surveillance –, Phaal, Farrukh, & Probert – Technological Road mapping – and Godet – Structural Analysis – were combined; the result was the identification of important aspects of the AMT evolutionary progress, which allows to establish trends of this technology in local markets, products, technologies and capacities.

It has also been possible to recognize that current circumstances of the AMT supports analysis processes and prospection due to the amount of available information. Such information, compared with data corresponding to the state of the industry in Mexico, allowed the unfolding of a scenario with the application of a roadmap.

In summary the applied methodology permitted the observation of existing opportunities around the selected technology at global level, and enabled its comparison with the state of the industry in a particular region, from which a possible technological roadmap could be established to compare the local industry with the global trend in a certain period of time.

The obtained result raises two important circumstances to be evaluated: first, the limited own technological development constitutes a problem against the situation of the industrialized markets, which could generate delays in the roadmap, and could, as well mean commercial disadvantages in front of such nations with greater advance in technology and industry. Secondly, despite the potential of the AMT, exists a visible risk in the analyzed scenario, wherein this technology only could be used for the creation of final goods, and that does not exist technical development besides the technology transfer – specifically in development economies.

Since the study was limited to the analysis of current and available information which was represented in a roadmap, future radical developments that have not been identified may shift part of the roadmap, as well as the future options. Therefore, keeping the roadmap alive is an activity that is strongly recommended for AMT stakeholders.

In the publication “Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for the Coming Technology Revolution”, of the Atlantic Council (Atlantic Council, 2013), it is settled down that the AMT can be particularly special for regions that have little or null production capacity, and depend on massive imports. According to the publication, establishing a 3D printing facility costs approximately USD $10.000, which is much more accessible than setting up a conventional factory. In this sense, and considering the aims of

the National Development Plan and the Innovation Development Program of Mexico, it is highly recommendable that the Mexican government promotes the AMT as an alternative way to develop industry and technology; this implies to emphasize the virtues and capacities of this technology in favor of the industry.

An alternative to foster AMT diffusion is by developing GUI partnership especially within already developed clusters, in order to land the use of the technology in real markets, and with the projection of reaching the wider regions, as well as urging the research centers to adapt the AMT to the specific needs of the industry.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank the reviewers, and the Editor Ted Fuller for their recommendations, as well as SENESCYT - Ecuador and CONACYT - Mexico for their support.

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Appendix. Sources for the strategic roadmap

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 > 2030

Healthcare

Automotive

Aerospace

Manufacture

Printers

Healthcare devices

AM technologies

Materials

Software and Hardware

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de Beer, 2013 Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012 Kasriel-Alexander, 2013

de Beer,2013

Miller, 2014de Beer, 2013

Miller, 2014

Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012

de Beer, 2013 Diginova, 2014

Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012

de Beer, 2013

Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012

Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012

Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012

Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012

Giffi, Gangula & Illinda, 2014

Srinivasan & Bassan,

2012

Burton & Walker, 2015

Srinivasan & Bassan,

2012

Kasriel-Alexander, 2013

Basiliere & Shanler, 2014

de Beer, 2013de Beer, 2013

Kasriel-Alexander, 2013

Kasriel-Alexander, 2013 Kasriel-Alexander, 2013de Beer, 2013

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Basiliere, 2014

Basiliere, 2014Diginova,2014

Rayna & Striukova, 2015Diginova, 2014

Diginova, 2014 Diginova, 2014Diginova, 2014

Shanler & Basiliere, 2015

Srinivasan & Bassan, 2012de Beer, 2013

de Beer, 2013de Beer, 2013Shanler & Basiliere, 2015

Zistl, 2014

Miller, 2014

Wohlers & Caffrey, 2013

Miller, 2014

Shanler & Basiliere, 2015 Shanler & Basiliere, 2015

Basiliere & Shanler, 2014

de Beer, 2013

Basiliere & Shanler, 2014

Basiliere, 2014

Shanler & Basiliere, 2015

de Beer, 2013

Basiliere & Shanler, 2014

Wohlers & Caffrey, 2013

Shanler & Basiliere, 2015

Diginova, 2014Diginova,2014

Miller, 2014

Wohlers & Caffrey, 2013

Miller 2014

Basiliere,2014Wohlers & Caffrey, 2013

Diginova, 2014 Diginova, 2014