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Development in a Changing Climate
World Development Report 2010
Marianne Fay
Co-Director
February 2009
Storyline
The facts: Worsening news on CC since the IPCC CC – a significant and immediate challenge CC having a disproportionate impact on developing
countries
The hypothesis: A precautionary approach is justified It is affordable, though that requires global action Global action is in everybody’s interest
The challenges: A “fair” deal to enable global action Adaptation required under the most optimistic scenario No silver bullet on mitigation
The facts – Worsening news since the IPCC
The facts – An immediate challenge:
A tragedy-of-the-commons with time lags…
• Inertia:• in the climate system•in the capital stock and the built environment
• in technology• in behaviors and institutions
• + uncertainty•Thresholds and tipping points
• = need for precaution
The facts – Climate change will have a disproportionate impact on developing countries
Developing countries inherently more vulnerable
Not entirely due to lower incomes Some numbers:
2oC warming => 1% world income loss, 4% in Africa, 5% in India
The hypothesis: A precautionary approach is justified and affordable
Likely committed to 2oC
All agree BAU unacceptable
Cost difference between “economic optimum” and precaution is affordable 0.3% of annual income for 2oC
<0.1% for 2.5oC (+ cost/benefit ratio)
… an insurance premium
The hypothesis: Affordability – unfortunately- requires global action
Sources: emissions data are from CDIAC (2007) and EIA (2006); population data from WDI (2008); mitigation opportunities for 2020 - average over range (McKinsey 2009; own calculations based on data reported in IPCC 2009).
The hypothesis: Global action is in everybody’s interest
The tab is large: $8 to $25 trillion Delay to 2020 by developing countries
more than double the costs Deadweight loss $20 to 50 trillion… room
to bargain … and anticipation creates savings for all
The challenge: it’s an unfair world
The challenge: A “fair” deal to enable global action
Advantageous is not enough High income countries must:
Reduce their emissions Facilitate adaptation and mitigation in
developing ocuntries Massively invest in climate innovation
Need to ensure developing world not locked into uneven distribution
But…what do high income countries need?
The challenge: Adaptation required under the most optimistic scenario
2oC minimum Climate-smart development
Robust, rather than optimal decision making
Fix all that needs to be fixed… Massive improvement in management
of land and water Decouple growth and energy Social protection!
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FutureHistory
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year
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FutureHistory
Present CO 2
Concentration
~380 ppm
Present CO 2
Concentration
~380 ppm
Preindustrial CO 2
Concentration
~280 ppm
2100 CO 2
Concentration
~550 ppm
2100 CO 2
Concentration
~740 ppm
Oil Oil + CCSNatural Gas Natural Gas + CCSCoal Coal + CCSBiomass Energy Nuclear EnergyNon-Biomass Renewable Energy End-use Energy
History and Reference Case Stabilization of CO2 at 550ppm
Biomass
Fo
ssil fue
l
The Challenges:No silver bullet on mitigation
Nuclear EnergyRenewablesEnd-use Energy
Take-away messages
Climate change is an immediate and significant problem
A precautionary approach is justified and affordable
All stand to gain from global cooperation High income countries need to do a whole
lot more Climate-smart development will be
needed Change starts at home
“With our helpful hands we can do many useful things”
Soo Min Shin, 8 years old, Thailand