Patrick FAY CRU

Patrick FAYCRU

© 2014 CRU International Limited confidential

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Global Optical Cable Developments

Acome’s 14th Symposium:Data and Telecom Networks

St. Petersburg, Russia May 29-June 2, 2014

Patrick FayCRU International


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253 Million km of Cabled Fiber Installed in 2013

R.O.W – Rest of World: Data: CRU International

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140USW. Eu-ropeChinaR.O.W.

Acome 14th Symposium, May 29-June 2, 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia

Annual M F-km Annual M F-km

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

MMCATVOther S-MMobile LocalLong-DistanceOth. Local Tel.FTTX


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Twenty-five countries with > 1 M f-km = 89% of WW S-M DemandFour Countries Account for 2/3 of Global S-M Fibre Demand in 2013, 249.1 M

f-km

China US

Japan

India

Russia

France

Brazil

Saudi A

rabia

Korea

Mexico

German

y UK

Canada

Australia

Thaila

nd

Indone

siaSpain Ita

ly

Turke

y

South A

frica

Taiwan

Vietnam

Netherla

nds

Malays

ia

Argen

tina

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

China49%

US, Jap., India18%

Next 713%

RoW21%

2013122


Next Seven


5

BrazilIndiaItaly

TurkeySouth Africa

RussiaGermanyThailand

SpainFranceChina

NetherlandsMalaysia

UKTaiwan

SwedenSwitzerland

Saudi ArabiaKorea

AustraliaDenmark

JapanUS

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cumulative S-M Fibre Installed per HH for 23 CountriesPace of Growth of Installed Base/HH is Mixed: Bars Show Number of Years

at Each Level

1 fkm/hh

2 fkm/hh

3 fkm/hh

4 fkm/hh

5 fkm/hh

Data – CRU International, ITU


6 fkm/hh


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Annual FTTx Demand by Major Region, ‘08-’13

Data: CRU International

Legend

Cabled-fibre Demand, M f-m

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

1020304050607080

FTTx

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

2

4

6

8

10

FTTC+FTTN

20082009 20102011 201220130

1020304050607080

FTTB+FTTP

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

10203040506070

FTTP

N. Am.

Europe

China

Oth. A-P

R.O.W.



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1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

G652A/B G652C/D G655 G657

G.652C/D overtakes G.652A/B demand

G.652.C/D Fibre Eclipses G.652.A/B in 2006 on Strength of FTTH Demand and Introduction of Merchant Preforms

M f-km

Data CRU International



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Fibre Optic Cable Demand by Fibre-km in 2013Major Cable Demand by Design

N. Am.

W. Eur.

E. Eur.

China

Oth. A-P

Mid. Eas

t

Africa

Lat. Am.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

OtherRibbonOPGWADSSL. Tube

Data: CRU International

N. Am.

W. Eur.

E. Eur.

China

Oth. A-P

Mid. Eas

t

Africa

Lat. A

m.0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Ribbon Usage Within Region



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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Q10.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

48-F OFCSMF

Price Example: 48-Fibre Armored Cable in Asia and SMFUS$ fibre-metre

Data: Trade Data, CRU International



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Comments on Q1 2014 Developments• Demand factors:

– NA Shipments are up 15% year-on-year. NA demand up 24%– China demand is up 14%– European demand is up 11%– Global demand is up 13%

• Fibre Pricing:– World fibre shipments up 13% in Q1 2014– Mix of low quarterly installations in 2013, fibre stock build-

up in 2013 and capacity coming on line is contributing to low prices in China

– Joint ventures and facilities in other regions adding to capacity



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CRU’s Wire and Cable TeamThree full-time analysts plus research staff

Patrick FayIndustry analyst covering: optical fiber, cable, telecom networks, FTTx

Phone: + 1 401 783 4764 Email: [email protected] Company website: http://www.crugroup.com Location: Providence, Rhode Island (RI)


mailto:[email protected]

http://www.crugroup.com/

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Patrick FAY CRU