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Despite Extraordinary Challenges,Progress
The Obama Administration’s Management of the Border and ImmigrationEnforcement System, and Some Initial Data and Thoughts on The Central American
Migrant Crisis
Simon Rosenberg, Emma Buckhout and Alex HagermoserNDN/NPI’s 21st Century Border Initiative
July 17, 2014
Despite Extraordinary Challenges,Progress
The Obama Administration’s Management of the Border and ImmigrationEnforcement System, and Some Initial Data and Thoughts on The Central American
Migrant Crisis
Simon Rosenberg, Emma Buckhout and Alex HagermoserNDN/NPI’s 21st Century Border Initiative
July 17, 2014
With More Money, Better Strategies and GreaterCooperation with Mexico, The Obama
Administration Has Made TheImmigration and Border Enforcement Systems
Far Better and More Humane
With More Money, Better Strategies and GreaterCooperation with Mexico, The Obama
Administration Has Made TheImmigration and Border Enforcement Systems
Far Better and More Humane
Real, Measurable ProgressCrime is down along the US side of the border. The two largest border
cities, El Paso and San Diego, are the two safest large cities inAmerica today.
Four of the five high-traffic migration corridors across the US-Mexicoborder are already at or near the Senate bill’s goal of 90%effectiveness rate.
Flow is way down, net zero today. Under Bush undoc/imm populationgrew by over 3m, an average of almost 400,000/year. UnderObama there has been no growth in undoc/imm population –average of zero growth per year.
In the past year, our two countries have taken critical steps indeepening their cooperation, launching the first ever joint patrolsof Mexico’s northern border w/US, and taken early steps for Mexicoto establish a true Southern Border w/Central American neighbors.
Crime is down along the US side of the border. The two largest bordercities, El Paso and San Diego, are the two safest large cities inAmerica today.
Four of the five high-traffic migration corridors across the US-Mexicoborder are already at or near the Senate bill’s goal of 90%effectiveness rate.
Flow is way down, net zero today. Under Bush undoc/imm populationgrew by over 3m, an average of almost 400,000/year. UnderObama there has been no growth in undoc/imm population –average of zero growth per year.
In the past year, our two countries have taken critical steps indeepening their cooperation, launching the first ever joint patrolsof Mexico’s northern border w/US, and taken early steps for Mexicoto establish a true Southern Border w/Central American neighbors.
Real, Measurable Progress, ContinuedThe new prioritization of removals begun by ICE director John Morton
in 2011 known has “prosecutorial discretion” has significantlychanged imm/border enforcement. In 2013, all but 10,336 of thoseremoved from the country were either criminals in the Interior orcaught entering the country illegally. The result is that the threat ofdeportation has been removed from vast majority of undoc/immsin the US while continuing to drive down flow.
In 2012, the Obama Administration implemented Deferred Action forChildhood Arrivals (DACA), allowing over 1m DREAMers,unauthorized immigrants brought to US as youths, to work andstudy legally in the US.
Trade with Mexico has jumped from $340b in 2009 to about $550b in2013. Mexico is America’s 3rd largest trading partner, 2nd largestexport market. $1.3 billion worth of goods and 1m people cross the2000 mile US-Mexico border each day.
The new prioritization of removals begun by ICE director John Mortonin 2011 known has “prosecutorial discretion” has significantlychanged imm/border enforcement. In 2013, all but 10,336 of thoseremoved from the country were either criminals in the Interior orcaught entering the country illegally. The result is that the threat ofdeportation has been removed from vast majority of undoc/immsin the US while continuing to drive down flow.
In 2012, the Obama Administration implemented Deferred Action forChildhood Arrivals (DACA), allowing over 1m DREAMers,unauthorized immigrants brought to US as youths, to work andstudy legally in the US.
Trade with Mexico has jumped from $340b in 2009 to about $550b in2013. Mexico is America’s 3rd largest trading partner, 2nd largestexport market. $1.3 billion worth of goods and 1m people cross the2000 mile US-Mexico border each day.
The US-Mexico BorderAmong the World’s Most Complex Pieces of Infrastructure
2000 miles, stretching along 4 US states, incl CA, TX anddozens of govt/law enforcement jurisdictions.
Has 47 crossings. San Ysidro-Tijuana is the busiest landborder crossing in the world. 1st new rail crossing inover 100 years is opening soon.
More than $1b of trade moves across and more than1m people every day.
Managing these levels of flow of people and goods,while maintaining a high level of security, is simply anextraordinary achievement.
2000 miles, stretching along 4 US states, incl CA, TX anddozens of govt/law enforcement jurisdictions.
Has 47 crossings. San Ysidro-Tijuana is the busiest landborder crossing in the world. 1st new rail crossing inover 100 years is opening soon.
More than $1b of trade moves across and more than1m people every day.
Managing these levels of flow of people and goods,while maintaining a high level of security, is simply anextraordinary achievement.
US/Mexico Border Is Enormous
Length ofU.S.-MexicoBorder:1,933miles
Width of EntireUnited States(San Diego toJacksonville):2,109 miles
Length ofU.S.-MexicoBorder:1,933miles
Since 2002, Enforcement Budget Has Tripled
$12.5
$18
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
Immigration Enforcement Funding(In Billions)
$6.2
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
2002 2006 2012
MPI - Immigration Enforcement in the United States a Formidable Machinery
Number of “Boots on The Ground” HasDoubled
17,499
21,300
15,000
20,000
25,000Border Patrol Agents
10,650
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2004 2008 2012
MPI - Immigration Enforcement in the United States a Formidable Machinery
Investments Have Paid Off: Crime on US Sideof the Border Has Dropped
19,56415,760
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Incidents of Violent Crime Along the Border*
FBI Uniform Crime Reports
* Analysis comes from the 12 largest U.S. cities along the our southern border: Brownsville, TX; Carlsbad, CA; Chula Vista,CA; El Paso, TX; Eagle Pass, TX; Las Cruces, NM; Laredo, TX; McAllen, TX; Nogales, AZ; San Diego, CA; Tucson, AZ; Yuma, AZ
0
5,000
10,000
2004 2012
**There was a decrease in the individual incidents of violent crime despite anincrease in population of 400,000 people
Two Largest Border Cities Are Safest in US
1. El Paso, TX2. San Diego, CA3. New York, NY4. Austin, TX5. San Jose, CA
6. Los Angeles, CA7. Portland, OR8. Charlotte, NC9. Seattle, WA10. San Antonio, TX
Lowest Crime Rate Ranking forCities of 500,000 or more Population (33 cities)
CQ Press – City Crime Rankings 2013
1. El Paso, TX2. San Diego, CA3. New York, NY4. Austin, TX5. San Jose, CA
6. Los Angeles, CA7. Portland, OR8. Charlotte, NC9. Seattle, WA10. San Antonio, TX
Across the Board Success Along the Border
3,2422,825 2,859
200025003000
El Paso ViolentCrimes
7769
5960
80
100
Nogales ViolentCrimes
6,7446,047 5,5296000
8000
San Diego ViolentCrimes
0500
100015002000
2004 2008 2012
59
0
20
40
60
2004 2008 20120
2000
4000
2004 2008 2012
FBI Uniform Crime Reports
Two of the Five “High Traffic” Corridors areAlready Above 90% “Effectiveness Rates”
92% 91% 87% 84%
71%
40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Of the Border Patrol’s nine southwest-border sectors, five had more than 30,000 apprehensions Makingthem a “high traffic” corridor.“Effectiveness rate” is calculated by dividing the percentage of apprehensions
plus turn backs per year by the estimated total number of illegal entries per year.
0%10%20%30%40%
San Diego El Centro Tucson Laredo Rio GrandeCorridor
GAO - Border Patrol: Key Elements of New StrategicPlan Not Yet in Place to Inform Border Security Status and Resource Needs, Dec. 2012
After Years of Explosive Growth, TotalUnauthorized Population Has Stopped Growing
9.710.1
10.711.1
11.612.2
11.711.3 11.4 11.5 11.7
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
Estimated U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population(In Millions)
Pew Hispanic Center – “Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, MayHave Reversed,” September 23, 2013
8.6
9.4 9.710.1
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
From 1992 to 2007 Undocumented ImmigrationPopulation Grew Fourfold, by 9m
6
8
10
12
14
Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversedhttp://www.pewhispanic.org/2013/09/23/population-decline-of-unauthorized-immigrants-stalls-may-have-reversed/
0
2
4
6
U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population (in Millions)
Mexican Diaspora Ending?
550
770
560650
600
700
800
900
Annual Immigration From Mexico To U.S.(In Thousands)
370
550 560
280
140
0
100
200
300
400
500
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010
Pew Hispanic Center – “Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less,”April 23, 2012
Unauthorized Mexican Population inthe U.S. Has Peaked, Only Half of Undoc Pop Now
5.956.3
6.556.95
6.656.35 6.15 6.15 6.05
66.5
77.5
Estimated U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population fromMexico (In Millions)
4.45
55.4 5.6
5.95 6.15 6.15 6.05
33.5
44.5
55.5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pew Hispanic Center – “Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, MayHave Reversed,” September 23, 2013
Unauthorized Immigrant Population Increase(in Millions)
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
Under Clinton Under Bush Under Obama
Unauthorized Immigrant Population Increase (in millions)
Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversedhttp://www.pewhispanic.org/2013/09/23/population-decline-of-unauthorized-immigrants-stalls-may-have-reversed/
Average Unauthorized Immigrant PopulationIncrease Per Year
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
Under Clinton Under Bush Under Obama
Average Unauthorized Immigrant Population Increase Per Year
Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversedhttp://www.pewhispanic.org/2013/09/23/population-decline-of-unauthorized-immigrants-stalls-may-have-reversed/
Clear Evidence That Security Improvements Creatinga Deterrent – Flow Is Dropping As Economy Improves
62.00
62.50
63.00
63.50
64.00
91.50
92.00
92.50
Average Employment Rate
59.00
59.50
60.00
60.50
61.00
61.50
62.00
89.50
90.00
90.50
91.00
2009 2010 2011 2012
Unauthorized MexicanPopulation in the U.S. (inhundreds of thousands)
Pew Hispanic Center – “Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed,” September 23, 2013http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
With Reduced Flow, Border Patrol Have Less To Do
Washington Office on Latin America - Border Fact Check
Apprehensions per Border Patrol Agent, 1992-2012
Yet, US Trade with Mexico Has Skyrocketed,Increasing 5-Fold Since NAFTA
2005,$290,356.20
2013,$506,608.40
400000
500000
600000
2012,$493,501.00
US Goods and Services Trade with Mexico1993-2013
(In Millions of USD)
U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2012 services numbers are preliminary.http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/country/ and http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_ita.cfm
1993,$18,114
1997,$20,927
2001,$27,008
2005,$36,753
2009,$36,505 2013,
$45,172(projected)
1993,$81,498.30
1997,$157,326.10
2001,$232,634.40
2005,$290,356.20
2009,$305,546.50
0
100000
200000
300000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Trade inServicesTrade inGoods
2012,$42,941
Mexico Now US’s Third Largest Trading PartnerMore than Japan/Germany/UK combined
16.5%15.1%
12.8%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
5.3%3.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Canada China Mexico Japan Germany
2012 Census - Foreign Trade Statistics
And Our Second Largest Export MarketMexico buys twice the value of U.S. goods as China
23%
18%
15%
20%
25%
9%
5.1%3.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Canada Mexico China Japan Germany
2012 Census - Foreign Trade Statistics
Mexico Is Modernizing, Growing, Making Another LargeMexican Migration to US Far Less Likely
2001,$733.4b
2007,$1,043.5b
2009,$895.4b
2012,$1,178.1b
$700,000,000,000
$800,000,000,000
$900,000,000,000
$1,000,000,000,000
$1,100,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000,000
Mexico’s GDP Is Growing SteadilyMexico’s GDP (current USD)
The World Bank
1992,$363.6b
1993,$510.2b 1998,
$508.0b
$300,000,000,000
$400,000,000,000
$500,000,000,000
$600,000,000,000
$700,000,000,000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
$12,810,2006
$14,040,2008
$14,600,2010
$16,450,2012
$12,000
$13,000
$14,000
$15,000
$16,000
$17,000
Mexico’s Average Income Is ClimbingMexico’s GNI Per Capita PPP
The World Bank
$8,280,1993
$8,060,1996
$9,040,1998
$10,110,2000
$10,190,2002
$10,930,2004
$12,810,2006
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
$11,000
$12,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Mexico’s GDP Projected to Overtake France,Germany, UK, Rival Japan by 2050
Goldman Sachs - Financial Times Beyondbrics Bloghttp://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/12/07/goldman-sachs-brics-in-2050/#axzz2VGsw6iYV
Mexico Moving TowardModern Developed Nation Birthrates
19616.776
19696.76
19736.364
19775.418
5.15.45.7
66.36.66.9
The World Bank, CIA World Factbook
19775.418
19814.51
19853.898 1989
3.468 19933.117 1997
2.831 20012.61
20052.448 2010
2.28120132.25
1.51.82.12.42.7
33.33.63.94.24.54.85.1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Year
Breaking It Down A Bit More
19933.117
19972.831
20012.612.6
2.8
3
3.2
Birt
hs P
er W
oman
Birth Rate Since 1993
20012.61
20052.448 2010
2.28120132.25
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Birt
hs P
er W
oman
Year
Forbes – “Mexico's Reforms: The Devil In The Details,” January 15, 2014
Ambitious Reform Agenda
• Telecommunications• Education• Elections• Fiscal• Taxes• Energy
• Telecommunications• Education• Elections• Fiscal• Taxes• Energy
Forbes – “Mexico's Reforms: The Devil In The Details,” January 15, 2014
The World Is Taking Notice of Mexico’s Progress
Mexico received special recognition at Davos,over $7 billion in new foreign investments
Moody’s Investor Service upgraded Mexico’ssovereign ratings from Baa1 to A3 in February2014, citing improvements from structuralreforms last year, credit profile similar to otherA-rated countries
Mexico received special recognition at Davos,over $7 billion in new foreign investments
Moody’s Investor Service upgraded Mexico’ssovereign ratings from Baa1 to A3 in February2014, citing improvements from structuralreforms last year, credit profile similar to otherA-rated countries
Reuters – “Mexico Draws Over $7 billion in Foreign Investment at Davos,” Jan. 24, 2014;Moody’s Investor Service – “Rating Action: Moody's Upgrades Mexico's Sovereign Rating to
A3 from Baa1; Stable Outlook,” Feb. 5, 2014
While Congress Has Failed to Act, The ObamaAdministration Has Made Significant Improvements toThe Legal Immigration System and Helped Weaken The
Anti-Immigrant Political Movement
While Congress Has Failed to Act, The ObamaAdministration Has Made Significant Improvements toThe Legal Immigration System and Helped Weaken The
Anti-Immigrant Political Movement
After Years of Gains, Self Deportation/AttritionMovement Was Routed in 2012
Conservative US Supreme Court dealsArizona's SB1070 near deathblow in2012, siding w/Obama Administrationslegal challenge. “Gettysburg” for anti-immigration movement.
State Senator Russell Pearce, thepolitical architect of SB1070, wasrecalled from office by a coalition led bymainstream GOP and business leaders
In current debate, House GOP hasabandoned “rhetoric of self-deportation”strategy in wake of its political defeat in2012. Activity in states has died down.
Conservative US Supreme Court dealsArizona's SB1070 near deathblow in2012, siding w/Obama Administrationslegal challenge. “Gettysburg” for anti-immigration movement.
State Senator Russell Pearce, thepolitical architect of SB1070, wasrecalled from office by a coalition led bymainstream GOP and business leaders
In current debate, House GOP hasabandoned “rhetoric of self-deportation”strategy in wake of its political defeat in2012. Activity in states has died down.
On CIR, closer than ever, but still a ways to go
In 2013, the Senate Immigration Billreceived 68 votes, the most ever for animmigration bill since 2005. Strong bi-partisan support despite deeply partisanera. Coalition supporting it includespowerful parts of GOP coalition.
Central American migrant crisis has putissue of immigration reform back on thetable, giving advocates one final chanceto push it through this year.
In 2013, the Senate Immigration Billreceived 68 votes, the most ever for animmigration bill since 2005. Strong bi-partisan support despite deeply partisanera. Coalition supporting it includespowerful parts of GOP coalition.
Central American migrant crisis has putissue of immigration reform back on thetable, giving advocates one final chanceto push it through this year.
Administration Has Made Other SignificantImprovements In the System
Replaced work place raids with more targeted andeffective I-9 audits
Expanded and improved the nation's workerverification system
Through prosecutorial discretion, prioritizedcriminal migrants and those caught entering thecountry illegally for deportation
Implemented Deferred Action for ChildhoodArrivals (DACA) for eligible youth in the countryprior to 2007
Replaced work place raids with more targeted andeffective I-9 audits
Expanded and improved the nation's workerverification system
Through prosecutorial discretion, prioritizedcriminal migrants and those caught entering thecountry illegally for deportation
Implemented Deferred Action for ChildhoodArrivals (DACA) for eligible youth in the countryprior to 2007
Most Significant Improvements Have Come From 2011Policy Changes Known as “The Morton Memos,”
Which Have Made the Border/Immigration System BothMore Effective and More Humane
Most Significant Improvements Have Come From 2011Policy Changes Known as “The Morton Memos,”
Which Have Made the Border/Immigration System BothMore Effective and More Humane
Morton Memos/Prosecutorial Discretion
• “[ICE]…has resources to remove approximately 400,000aliens per year, less than 4 percent of the estimatedalien population in the United States. In light of thelarge number of administrative violations the agency ischarged with addressing and the limited enforcementresources the agency has available, ICE must prioritizethe use of its enforcement personnel, detention space,and removal resources to ensure that the removals theagency does conduct promote the agency’s highestenforcement priorities, namely national security, publicsafety, and border security.”- ICE memorandum6/30/10
• “[ICE]…has resources to remove approximately 400,000aliens per year, less than 4 percent of the estimatedalien population in the United States. In light of thelarge number of administrative violations the agency ischarged with addressing and the limited enforcementresources the agency has available, ICE must prioritizethe use of its enforcement personnel, detention space,and removal resources to ensure that the removals theagency does conduct promote the agency’s highestenforcement priorities, namely national security, publicsafety, and border security.”- ICE memorandum6/30/10
http://immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/docs/Shoba_-_Prosecutorial_Discretion_072011_0.pdf
Morton Established New Priorities
Prosecutorial Discretion established clear priorities fordeportation – those caught entering into the countryillegally, and those in the interior with criminal record.
Created the legal/policy rationale for DACA, the programimplemented in 2012 for DREAM-eligible youth.
In a very short period, these new guidelines have broughtabout a dramatic, positive change in the US imm/borderenforcement system.
And remember all these solutions were a band-aid, as thereal solution has always been far greaterCongressionally back reforms through CIR.
Prosecutorial Discretion established clear priorities fordeportation – those caught entering into the countryillegally, and those in the interior with criminal record.
Created the legal/policy rationale for DACA, the programimplemented in 2012 for DREAM-eligible youth.
In a very short period, these new guidelines have broughtabout a dramatic, positive change in the US imm/borderenforcement system.
And remember all these solutions were a band-aid, as thereal solution has always been far greaterCongressionally back reforms through CIR.
With Security Improvements, Flow Is Dropping, FarFewer People Being Sent Home
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000Total DHS Removals and Returns FY 2001-2012
DHS – ENFORCE Alien Removal Module (EARM), Feb 2013; Enforcement IntegratedDatabase (EID), Nov 2012
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Returns Are Down, Removals Are atBush Era Levels
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
DHS – ENFORCE Alien Removal Module (EARM), Feb 2013; Enforcement IntegratedDatabase (EID), Nov 2012
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Removals Returns
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
Border Removals
New Emphasis On Illegal Entrants To Support Broader,Effective Deterrent Strategy
https://www.ice.gov/doclib/about/offices/ero/pdf/2013-ice-immigration-removals.pdfhttps://www.ice.gov/doclib/about/offices/ero/pdf/ero-removals1.pdfhttps://www.ice.gov/news/releases/1212/121221washingtondc2.htm
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Interior Removals
Interior Removals Much Less A Priority Now
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
ICE Interior Removals FY 2008-2013
ICE: FY 2013 ICE Immigration Removals; ICE Total Removals
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
While Prosecutorial Discretion Is Also ReleasingMore Low Priority Migrants Already in System
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Percent of Deportation Cases That Lead to Deportation
FY 2013 Statistics Yearbook http://www.justice.gov/eoir/statspub/fy13syb.pdf
Of Those Removed From the Interior, PriorityNow Is on Criminals
Threat Level/Priority Removals
Convicted Criminals*Level 1 52,935
Level 2 26,203
Level 3 30,977
Immigration Fugitives 2,742
Repeat immigration Violators 10,358
Other Removals 10,336Other Removals 10,336
*Level 1 offenders are those aliens convicted of “aggravated felonies,” as defined in § 101(a)(43) of theImmigration and Nationality Act, or two (2) ormore crimes each punishable by more than 1 year, commonly referred to as “felonies.”
Level 2 offenders are aliens convicted of any other felony or three(3) or more crimes each punishable by less than 1 year, commonly referred to as “misdemeanors.”
Level 3 offenders are aliens convicted of “misdemeanor”crime(s) punishable by less than 1 year
http://www.ice.gov/doclib/about/offices/ero/pdf/2013-ice-immigration-removals.pdf
The Result: The Threat of Deportation Has BeenLifted for Most Undoc/Imms in the US
The practical impact of these new Obama Administration policiesis that if you are an undocumented immigrant in the USwithout a criminal record, and have not been caught enteringthe country without authorization, the government of the USNO LONGER WANTS TO DEPORT YOU.
Just three years into this new system and already the threat ofimminent deportation been lifted from the vast majority ofundoc/imm in the US, and more than 500,000 DREAMershave been given temporary legal status.
This is a far better system than prior to 2011 when ICE coulddeport any undoc/imm regardless of their criminal history,including DREAMers.
The practical impact of these new Obama Administration policiesis that if you are an undocumented immigrant in the USwithout a criminal record, and have not been caught enteringthe country without authorization, the government of the USNO LONGER WANTS TO DEPORT YOU.
Just three years into this new system and already the threat ofimminent deportation been lifted from the vast majority ofundoc/imm in the US, and more than 500,000 DREAMershave been given temporary legal status.
This is a far better system than prior to 2011 when ICE coulddeport any undoc/imm regardless of their criminal history,including DREAMers.
The Obama Enforcement StrategyHas Been Effective
Crime Is Down on US side of the borderNet Migration Is Now ZeroBorder Patrol at or near target levels of effectiveness
ratesDespite this much tougher security regime, trade with
Mexico has exploded, growing as much in last 6 yearsas previous 200.
Crime Is Down on US side of the borderNet Migration Is Now ZeroBorder Patrol at or near target levels of effectiveness
ratesDespite this much tougher security regime, trade with
Mexico has exploded, growing as much in last 6 yearsas previous 200.
While It Is Also Far More Humane
Elimination of Work Place RaidsOver 500,000 youth have taken advantage of DACARemovals are now targeting criminals and illegal
entrants. Threat of deportation has been lessened oreliminated for vast majority of undocumentedimmigrants in the US.
More aggressive SB1070 style politics and legislation inretreat.
Elimination of Work Place RaidsOver 500,000 youth have taken advantage of DACARemovals are now targeting criminals and illegal
entrants. Threat of deportation has been lessened oreliminated for vast majority of undocumentedimmigrants in the US.
More aggressive SB1070 style politics and legislation inretreat.
Meaning….
That the attacks on the President from his immigrationreform allies are unfair
And the attacks from the Republicans about his lack ofcommitment to enforcement are ridiculous
That the attacks on the President from his immigrationreform allies are unfair
And the attacks from the Republicans about his lack ofcommitment to enforcement are ridiculous
So, While Progress Has Been Made,There Are Clear Challenges Ahead
Immigration Courts Are Overburdened
Dramatic Increase of Central American MigrantsIncluding Unaccompanied Minors Creating aHumanitarian and Regional Crisis
And of course we need broad immigration reform
Immigration Courts Are Overburdened
Dramatic Increase of Central American MigrantsIncluding Unaccompanied Minors Creating aHumanitarian and Regional Crisis
And of course we need broad immigration reform
Clogged Courts Are Weakening The System
Immigration Courts Are Slowing Down Due to Volume andSophistication/Increase of Legal Representation of Those Inthe System
While More Unauthorized Immigrants Are Winning Their Cases,Length of Time for Resolution of Makes Eventual Removal FarMore Painful and Detention Periods Longer
Also Preventing Swift Resolution of Current Migrant Crisis
Immigration Courts Are Slowing Down Due to Volume andSophistication/Increase of Legal Representation of Those Inthe System
While More Unauthorized Immigrants Are Winning Their Cases,Length of Time for Resolution of Makes Eventual Removal FarMore Painful and Detention Periods Longer
Also Preventing Swift Resolution of Current Migrant Crisis
Immigration Court Backlog RapidlyIncreasing
300,000
350,000
400,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Backlog of Pending Cases in Immigration Courts
TRAC Immigration http://trac.syr.edu/phptools/immigration/court_backlog/apprep_backlog.php
Number of Days Waiting Has AlsoIncreased Dramatically
520
540
560
580
600
400
420
440
460
480
500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Average Time Pending Cases Have Been Waiting in Immigration Courts (in days)
TRAC Immigration http://trac.syr.edu/phptools/immigration/court_backlog/apprep_backlog_avgdays.php
Number of Cases Resolved Are Falling
140,000150,000
Cases Resolved for DetainedAliens
210,000
220,000
230,000
Cases Resolved for All Aliens
50,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000110,000120,000130,000140,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cases Resolved for Detained Aliens
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cases Resolved for All Aliens
FY 2013 Statistics Yearbook http://www.justice.gov/eoir/statspub/fy13syb.pdf
The Central American Migrant Crisis
Central American Migrant Surge AHemispheric Problem, and A Humanitarian Crisis
60-90k UACs projected to arrive this year up from 6,500 in 2011.More could come next year.
In 2010, over 80% of UAC’s were from Mexico. Now, 75% comefrom El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras but most comethrough Mexico
In a 2010 study, only a third of UACs placed temporarily withfamily/guardians ended up with US based parents – does notappear to be largely a family unification issue.
More, recent data is needed to have a clear picture of exactlywhat is going on. Recent reports suggest more families arecoming now.
60-90k UACs projected to arrive this year up from 6,500 in 2011.More could come next year.
In 2010, over 80% of UAC’s were from Mexico. Now, 75% comefrom El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras but most comethrough Mexico
In a 2010 study, only a third of UACs placed temporarily withfamily/guardians ended up with US based parents – does notappear to be largely a family unification issue.
More, recent data is needed to have a clear picture of exactlywhat is going on. Recent reports suggest more families arecoming now.
Number of Unaccompanied MinorsEntering United States
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
Number of Unaccompanied Minors Entering United States
Customs and Border Protection http://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-border-unaccompanied-children
Central American Surge
As Texas traffic grows, number of Unaccompanied Minor Immigrants Drops in Arizonahttp://www.cvbugle.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubSectionID=1&ArticleID=42730
The Route to the US
The Crisis Is A True CrisisCosts, complexity, scale daunting, no immediate and simple solution. Tragic, and
dangerous for kids and families involved.
Stressing an already over-burdened immigration system, particularly immigrationcourts, HHS, Border Patrol and ICE.
Re-allocation of the UACs throughout the southwest is bringing in many moreelected officials and communities into the process, creating far greater politicalcomplexity.
If many UACs succeed in staying in the US, could create a global magnet forothers. Perception system can be gamed.
Returning UACs to countries of origin is difficult.
Unabated might cause rising wave of anti-immigrant sentiment in US, weakenconfidence in immigration system itself, make future reform more difficult.
Costs, complexity, scale daunting, no immediate and simple solution. Tragic, anddangerous for kids and families involved.
Stressing an already over-burdened immigration system, particularly immigrationcourts, HHS, Border Patrol and ICE.
Re-allocation of the UACs throughout the southwest is bringing in many moreelected officials and communities into the process, creating far greater politicalcomplexity.
If many UACs succeed in staying in the US, could create a global magnet forothers. Perception system can be gamed.
Returning UACs to countries of origin is difficult.
Unabated might cause rising wave of anti-immigrant sentiment in US, weakenconfidence in immigration system itself, make future reform more difficult.
Ending the CrisisEnsure the migrants, particularly the unaccompanied minors, are safe
Convene an ongoing regional process involving El Salvador, Guatemala,Honduras, Mexico and the US to stop the flow
Facilitate protections under anti-trafficking law . Possible steps – bringimmigration courts to detention facilities, expand courts for youth ininterior. Provide pro bono representation for proper adjudication andconsideration for those remaining in US. Building of safe facilities in homecountries, provide assistance on the ground there for return to families.
Launch joint US-Mexico long term strategic partnership to strengthen CentralAmerican nations – rule of law, economic growth, education, combatingtrans-national organized crime, etc.
DHS Secretary Johnson should add laws and conventions aroundunaccompanied minors in his enforcement review to see if there are waysto improve the system.
Ensure the migrants, particularly the unaccompanied minors, are safe
Convene an ongoing regional process involving El Salvador, Guatemala,Honduras, Mexico and the US to stop the flow
Facilitate protections under anti-trafficking law . Possible steps – bringimmigration courts to detention facilities, expand courts for youth ininterior. Provide pro bono representation for proper adjudication andconsideration for those remaining in US. Building of safe facilities in homecountries, provide assistance on the ground there for return to families.
Launch joint US-Mexico long term strategic partnership to strengthen CentralAmerican nations – rule of law, economic growth, education, combatingtrans-national organized crime, etc.
DHS Secretary Johnson should add laws and conventions aroundunaccompanied minors in his enforcement review to see if there are waysto improve the system.
The Administration Has Stepped Up,Time for Congress to Do Its Part
Allocate Resources for Expanded Temporary Detention Facilities andExpanded/Expedited Adjudication/Legal Representation. Considerother temporary, extraordinary measures.
Publically support Administration’s efforts to work with CentralAmerican allies and Mexico to develop short and long termstrategies to stop flow, make regional progress
Pass Immigration Reform In the House – will send a loud and clearmessage about our laws are, help clear up confusion in CentralAmerica
Allocate Resources for Expanded Temporary Detention Facilities andExpanded/Expedited Adjudication/Legal Representation. Considerother temporary, extraordinary measures.
Publically support Administration’s efforts to work with CentralAmerican allies and Mexico to develop short and long termstrategies to stop flow, make regional progress
Pass Immigration Reform In the House – will send a loud and clearmessage about our laws are, help clear up confusion in CentralAmerica
Time Is Now
Only Immigration related measure House GOP has passed thisCongress is “King Amendment” designed to roll back Mortonreforms, re-establishing threat of deportation over allundocumented immigrants in the US, including all 500,000DREAMers with temporary legal status. Would also no longerallow criminals – murderers, felons - in the interior to be anenforcement priority.
For nine years Democrats have tried to fix our brokenimmigration system, only to be blocked by the House GOP.Time to act is now. Need to respond to this crisis with truereform and modernization of system.
Only Immigration related measure House GOP has passed thisCongress is “King Amendment” designed to roll back Mortonreforms, re-establishing threat of deportation over allundocumented immigrants in the US, including all 500,000DREAMers with temporary legal status. Would also no longerallow criminals – murderers, felons - in the interior to be anenforcement priority.
For nine years Democrats have tried to fix our brokenimmigration system, only to be blocked by the House GOP.Time to act is now. Need to respond to this crisis with truereform and modernization of system.
Help Us Make It Better
This document grew out of a series of privatebriefings conducted by our staff over the pastfew years. While meant to be presented inpublic, we have decided to release it as manyhave found it helpful in understanding themany complex issues at play in the currentdebates. We welcome your feedback andideas for improvement at xxxxx.
This document grew out of a series of privatebriefings conducted by our staff over the pastfew years. While meant to be presented inpublic, we have decided to release it as manyhave found it helpful in understanding themany complex issues at play in the currentdebates. We welcome your feedback andideas for improvement at xxxxx.
It Takes A Village
We also want to thank the literally hundreds ofour colleagues and collaborators who havecontributed to this presentation. In particularwe want to thank Erik Lee, David Leopold,John Sandweg, Arturo Sarukhan, KristianRamos, Maria Cardona, Perry Brody and manyserving in the Administration, on the Hill andin key positions along the Southwest Borderand in Mexico.
We also want to thank the literally hundreds ofour colleagues and collaborators who havecontributed to this presentation. In particularwe want to thank Erik Lee, David Leopold,John Sandweg, Arturo Sarukhan, KristianRamos, Maria Cardona, Perry Brody and manyserving in the Administration, on the Hill andin key positions along the Southwest Borderand in Mexico.
Thank You
For more visit www.ndn.org.
And follow us at
@ndn_npi
@SimonWDC
For more visit www.ndn.org.
And follow us at
@ndn_npi
@SimonWDC
