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Deregulated Energy market in japan
9/27/2018
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved. 1
Agenda
₋ Introduction of KSS
₋ Why Japan, Why Now
₋ History of Deregulation and Current Situation
₋ Structure of the Electricity Industry
₋ Characteristics of Players in Japan Electric Market
₋ Operation and Rules of Retail Business
₋ Typical Products in the Deregulated Market
₋ Prospective Future Market
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Introduction of KSS
2
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
We are Kanden System Solutions ( KSS ) from Japan
KSS is an IT service and business consulting service provider, the subsidiary of
Kansai Electric Power Company ( KEPCO ) which is the 2nd largest utility in Japan.
- Establishment : April 1, 1967
- Capital : 90 million JPY ( 64K GBP)
- Sales : 31,525 million JPY ( 224 million GBP)
- Employees : 1,311
- Head Office : Osaka, Japan
Business Consulting
System Development
Infrastructure building
Operation & Maintenance
3
- Energy team- Public team- Enterprise team
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Our service for energy industry
4
KSS service is originally from “Build Operation of Japanese Retailer ” , not only create
blueprint , but also support our clients one by one tenaciously.
We are expanding our service to support development of around
energy retail business and service.
e.g. VPP , evolutional products utilizing PV and Battery , new service
that makes more convenience for customer or retailer or Utility.
KSS have been providing support for oversea companies entering to Japanese retail market in the
last 2 years.
We also have experience that support entering the Japanese
market of oversea IT Service and energy relating products
providers etc.
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Japanese
retailers &
others
Oversea
retailers
Other
overseas
projects
> 10 Projects
> 40 Projects
We have been supporting a lot of companies so far
5
Some Projects are ongoing
Include both Outbound / Inbound business
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Why Japan, Why Now
6
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Japan electricity market is a huge single market
7
GDP : 521 trillion JPY
( 3.7 trillion GBP )
Population : 127 million
Household : 63 million
Japan market is even bigger than
the de-regulated market in the U.S.
Electric Energy Sales : 823 TWh
Market Volume : 18 trillion JPY
(128 billion GBP)
• Industrial/Business :
10 trillion JPY
(70 billion GBP)
• Households:
8 trillion JPY
(57 billion GBP)
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
2022.04
* market share of new retailers
A big change is coming to Japan energy market
8
Establishment of OCCTO
2016.04 2017.04 2020.042015.04
Full retail liberalization
Full retail liberalization
Legal unbundling of T&D sectors
Legal unbundling of pipeline divisions
Electric system reform
Gas system reform
We are here
Deregulation started smoothly and a healthier market is going to be developed.
2018.01
Share (%) *High-V : 5.2Low-V : 0
Share (%) *High-V : 8.3Low-V : 0.1
Share (%) *High-V : 12.1Low-V : 4.6
Share (%) *High-V : 16.2Low-V : 7.7
Wholesale exchange market reform is in progress.Retailers from oversea
began to enter Japan market.
* market share of new retailers
Share (%) *>= 100k㎥ : 11.7< 100k㎥ : 0
Share (%) *>= 100k㎥ : 13.1< 100k㎥ : 0
Share (%) *>= 100k㎥ : 13.0< 100k㎥ : 0
Share (%) *>= 100k㎥ : 18.5< 100k㎥ : 2.4
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
History of Deregulation and Current Situation
9
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【50kW】(6,000V)
Partial deregulation of retail market started from 2000
10
• Ultra high-voltage for Industrial• Ultra high-voltage for business
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry documents
Ma
r. 20
00 ~
• Ultra high-voltage for Industrial• Ultra high-voltage for business• High-voltage B• High-voltage for Business (above 500kW)
• Ultra high-voltage for Industrial• Ultra high-voltage for business• High-voltage B• High-voltage for Business• High-voltage A
• High-voltage B
• Low voltage• Electric light
• High-voltage for Business
• High-voltage A
• High-voltage A
• High-voltage for Business (below 500kW)
• Low voltage• Electric light
• Low voltage• Electric light
Ap
r. 20
04
~A
pr. 2
00
5 ~
Liberalized categories
【2,000kW】(20,000V)
【contract kW】(voltage)
【500kW】(100~200V)
Ultra high-voltage High-voltage
Low-voltage(regulated categories)
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The market didn’t get hot at all
11
Main reasons why the retail market was not active• Electric power was difficult to procure in wholesale market.• Conventional utilities were not cooperative.
Transition of new retailer’s market share
Ultra High-voltage and High-voltage
Source: Electricity Research and Statistics
full liberalization
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
The disaster in March 2011 has changed the situation
12
People were forced to live without sufficient electric power.
Electricity system reform had proceeded by public opinion • The vertical integrated system should be reconsidered.• Regional monopolies should be abolished.• Deregulation should be improved more than before.
Stage 1 amendments
Great East Japan Earthquake Fukushima nuclear power plant accident
Stage 2 amendments
Stage 3amendments
Policy on Electricity System Reform
Enactment of2nd law amendments
Operation of OCCTO
Full retail liberalization
Legal unbundling of T&D sectors
Apr 2, 2013Cabinet decision
Nov 13, 2013
Jun 11, 2014
Apr, 2015 Jun 17, 2015
Enactment of1st law amendments
Enactment of3rd law amendments
Apr, 2016 Apr, 2020
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Retail market is booming after full deregulation
13
Source: Material from Research and Statistics of Electric power.
Total Ultra High-voltage /High-voltage Low-voltage
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
The total amount of switching is 9.7 million, and the total switching rate is 15.5%.
Deregulation has widely spread to Japanese people in 2 years
14
Area Number(K) Rate(%)
Hokkaido 263 9.5
Tohoku 228 4.2
Tokyo 3,055 13.3
Chubu 542 7.1
Hokuriku 36 2.9
Kansai 1,260 12.5
Chugoku 96 2.7
Shikoku 79 4.1
Kyushu 387 6.2
Okinawa - -
Total 5,945 9.5
Switching from Conventional utilityto New retailer
Area Number(K) Rate(%)
Hokkaido 21 0.7
Tohoku 80 1.5
Tokyo 914 4.0
Chubu 1,247 16.4
Hokuriku 29 2.4
Kansai 662 6.6
Chugoku 444 12.7
Shikoku 115 5.9
Kyushu 245 3.9
Okinawa 2 0.3
Total 3,758 6.0
Switching from regulated plan to liberalized plan in same utility
Source: Electricity transaction report. Data as of Feb, 2018
Residential and small business (Low voltage)
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Many players rush into energy market
15
Source: created by KS-SOL, based on state of full retail liberalization of electricity issued each time.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2016.04 2016.07 2016.10 2017.01 2017.04 2017.07 2017.10 2017.12 2018.5
Number of registered retailer of electricity
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Trading volume in JEPX is also increasing rapidly
16
Transition of the volume and the price of transaction from JEPX
Transaction Volume(GWh / day)
System Price(JPY / kWh)
Transaction Volume System Price
Percentage of Total Demand (same right vertical axis %)
System Price (average of 7 days)
Percentage of Total Demand (%)
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Characteristics of gas retail market• Wholesale exchange market doesn’t exist.• It is difficult for new gas retailers to find a wholesaler so far.• Gas retailers are obliged to organize security division.
Gas retail market is following electricity retail market
17
Transition of new entrants
Gas pipeline service provider
Large-Volume gas retailer
Share of new entrant
Share of provision(%)
Amount of retailer
> 2 million ㎥Mar 1 1995~
> 1 million ㎥Nov 19 1999~
> 0.5 million ㎥Apr 1 2004~
> 0.1 million ㎥Apr 1 2007~
2 million ㎥
1 million ㎥
0.5 million ㎥
0.1 million ㎥
< 0.1 million ㎥
Mar 1995~
Nov 1999~
Apr 2004~
Apr 2007~
Large SmallContracted gas usage per year
Industry
Business
Industry (Medium-sized)
Industry (Small-sized)
Partial deregulation of gas retail market
Total
Kanto
Chubu・Hokuriku
Kinki
Kyushu
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Transition of switching applicationsAmount (k)
s/w rate :2.4%
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
2017.06 2017.10 2017.12 2018.01 2018.03
Number of registered retailer of gas
2017
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Structure of the Electricity Industry
18
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Systems of IPP, TND and Retailer were respectively migrated to new license system
19
GenerateDivision
T&DDivision
RetailDivision
Utility IPP
NotificationSystem
PermissionSystem
Retailer
RegistrationSystem
License Type
Sell
Buy
Submit forecast
Submit forecastSwitching procedure
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IPP accounts for about 17% of the total power in Japan market
20
Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy. Data as of Jan, 2018
There are 577 IPPs in Japan.
Main industries:• Steel maker• chemical maker• petroleum company
Resource and competence:• Surplus power generated
by their private facilities• Middle-sized LNG plants
under construction• Renewable energy power
plants
“Gross bidding”, promoted by government will ensure that the transaction in JEPX will be increased steadily.
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
←| 60hz
50hz |→
All Utilities are responsible for balancing electricity within their own territories.
Electric power is transmitted among these utilities by interconnection except Okinawa.
10 Utilities are operating T&D network of Japan
21
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Chubu
Hokuriku
Shikoku
Kyushu
Chugoku
Kansai
Tokyo
Okinawa
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Low-entry barriers to enter electrics retail market
22
Apply for a license from METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry)• Expected power demand• Supply capability• Business implementation system
Enter into a power wheeling contract with the T&D in the target area.• Intra-area wheeling service contract• Power generation adjustment supply contract (FIT source)• Cross-area wheeling service contract with all T&Ds
Join OCCTO
Be a member of JEPX
Large investment in equipment is not necessary!
Requirements
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OCCTO is responsible for Japan electricity industry as a Hub
23
T&D
IPP
Retailer
Provide useful and necessary systems.• Switching support system• Demand-supply forecast submitting
system Standardize system specifications.
Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators, JAPAN
Coordinate and adjust the demand-supply balance among T&Ds.
Make long-term plans for maintaining and strengthening the transmission infrastructure, especially the Interconnection.
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JEPX is the only electricity wholesale exchange market in Japan
24
Spot market (1 day ahead) : • Main exchange market using “blind single-price auction” method.
Intraday market(1 hour ahead) : • Continuous session like trading in stock exchange, usually used for
unexpected situation such as generation assets failure and rapid weather change.
Image of blind single-price auction
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Characteristics of Players in Japan Electric Market
25
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Reasons:• The low-voltage sector (residential and small business) is worth JPY 8 trillions. • Easy to get a license to start retail business.• Prevent rivals from taking their own customers.
Many players in electricity retail market come from various industries
26
Basic Strategy:The electricity could be sold as part of a bundle of their original services and products.
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Some new retailers achieved great success, but some did not
27
Companies Reasons
Orix Electric
Power
Sell their bulk business in
apartment due to the concern
about expansion of their
business in the future.
Daito Energy Get out of the retail market
due to few profit from their
main customers who are
single.
Fukushima
Energy
Withdraw from the retail
market due to delay in dealing
with billing and customer
support business.
CompaniesNumber of
customers※
Tokyo Gas
1,200K
KDDI
1,000K
Osaka Gas
600K
JXTG Energy
300K
※Assumption by KS-SOL
5th ~ 10th : 100K
11th ~ 50th : 40K
51th ~ 100th : 5K
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Know-how and expertise in electricity business are not enough
28
Strong and wide customer base
Expertise in advanced electricity market
• Lack of expertise in procurement from wholesale market• Insufficient know-how in balancing management• Few unique products which utilize electricity business• Not too many IT solution products and IT service vendors
Issues
This is a sort of opportunities.
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Many new entrants from overseas are coming to Japan
29
Retail VPP
Battery / PV IT service
※some new entrants (around 10) are applying for the license.
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Operation and Rules of Retail Business
30
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Procurement from JEPX is steadily increasing
31
Main procurement for new retailer• PPA ( Power Purchase Agreement ) with IPP• JEPX • Backup power from utilities• Own power generation facilities
PPA with IPP Backup power from utilities JEPX
Rate of procurement from backup power from utilities Rate of procurement from JEPX
Source: submitted documents of 28th System Design Expert Meeting.
Ele
ctr
ic E
nerg
y
(10,0
00
kW
h)
Ra
te
(%)
Sep,2012 Mar,2013 Sep,2013 Mar,2014 Sep,2014 Mar,2015 Sep,2015 Mar,2016 Sep,2016 Mar,2017 Sep,2017
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Retailers and IPPs are responsible for accurate forecast
32
Source: Report of system research about overseas electricity exchange market and real time market by MRI
Both retailers and IPPs need to submit forecast to OCCTO at least 1 hour ahead.
Forecast demand
Actualdemand
Retailer
Forecast supply Actual
supply
IPP
Imbalance fee
Imbalance fee
Planned Value Balancing
USA UK Norway
DenmarkSweden Finland
Japan
Balancing (Simultaneous Equal Amount)
France Germany
They will be charged imbalance fee for the difference between Actual and Forecast.
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Necessary to comply with sales guideline for customer protection
33
Source: material from the 2rd System Design Specialist Committee of the Electric Market Surveillance Commission
1. Appropriate disclosure of information to consumers
i. Disclosure of general informationii. Explanation of important matters prior to contract
signing and issuance of documents before and after contract signing
iii. Appropriate method of disclosures such as power generation structure
2. Clear definition of sales and contract formsi. Difference between Brokers, intermediaries, and
agents of the electric retailerii. Electricity retailer’s responsibilities when
subcontracting processesiii. Sales/contract forms that comply with the Power
Generation Business Law
3. Clarification of contract detailsFollowings are prohibited:i. Non-transparent calculation of electric ratesii. Inappropriate contract termination iii. Items concerning predatory pricing with the aim of
forcing competitors out of the market
4. Response to complaints and inquiriesi. Obligation to respond to complaints and inquiries ii. Response to power outage inquiries
5. Contract Terminationi. Procedures for consumer-initiated contract termination ii. Procedures for retailer-initiated contract termination
Retailers are mandated to explain important matters to customers in accordance with the guidelines.
The retention of documentary evidence, usually for 3 months, was also mandated in terms of costumer protection.
The Guidelines for the Management of the Electric Retail Business
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Switching procedure is processed by Switching Support System
34
Integrate retailer’s own system with Switching Support System using API (Application Programming Interface) provided by OCCTO.
Use Switching Support System directly on the website of OCCTO.
Switching SupportSystem
T&D
New Retailer
Current Retailer
Customer
③Requiretermination
②Apply forSwitching
⑥Provide service ⑤Notify the result
①Apply for power
④Apply forWheeling Service
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Retailers access to T&D directly in order to get the usage data
35
Usage Data
Tentative Data
Provide information
Retailers always need to download the usage data from all T&Ds.
Get information
Customer
T&D A
Retailer
Send Invoice
T&D C
T&D B
Monthly usage including every 30-minute data To be used for bill calculation. Meter-reading is carried out almost every business day.
30-minute usage data Provided 1 hour later after the end time. To be used for demand forecast and information
provision to customers.
Get information
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Typical Products in the Deregulated Market
36
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Conventional products provided by utilities are as follows
37
Bill calculation formula
Electricity bill
=Basic
charge+
※ Meter charge have 3 tiers rate depending on usage.
Adjustments
Fuel adjustment charges(FAC)(kwh * X.XX JPY)±
Applicable discounts-
Renewable energy generation surcharges(FIT charge)
(kwh* X.XX JPY)+
Time of use(TOU) products are usually provided for all-electric home. (no use of gas).
Metercharge(Supply charge)※
+
FAC rate change every month (up / down) depending on fuel import cost such as LNG, Oil and Coal. It means that utilities have little risk.
(Basic charge rate and meter charge rate don’t change)
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New retailers imitate utilities’ products and reduce rate so far
38
Fuel adjustment charges(FAC) is being copied to new retailers together.
Mirror Product is easy to make a comparison for customers and to design a low-risk product for new retailers too. However, it doesn’t make much money for retailers.
Rate structure is identical, but with reduced price.
Mirror Plan
New entrant retailers are expected to provide innovative products with wholesale trading under appropriate risk management.
• Example #1 : Fixed Charge Rate / Flat Rate• Example #2 : Holidays Free Rate
Electricity Consumption
Rates
Utility’s rate
New retailer’s rate
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Utility and retailers representative tariff for residence
39
Meter-Rate Lighting BTEPCO
Contract category Unit Rate
(JPY)
Basic
charge
10A
1 contract
280.80
15A 421.20
20A 561.60
30A 842.40
40A 1,123.20
50A 1,404.00
60A 1,684.80
Meter
charge
< 120kWh
1kWh
19.52
120kWh~300kWh 26.00
> 300kWh 30.02
Contract category Unit Rate
(JPY)
Basic
charge
10A
1 contract
280.80
15A 421.20
20A 561.60
30A 842.40
40A 1,123.20
50A 1,404.00
60A 1,684.80
Meter
charge
< 120kWh
1kWh
19.49
120kWh~300kWh 24.89
> 300kWh 26.99
TOKYO GAS
Contract category Rate(JPY)
Basic charge 0.00
Meter charge 26.00
LOOOP
Zuttomo Plan 1S
Utility New Retailer
FIT charge (2.64 JPY/kwh) is charged for every customers whether utilities or retailers.
FAC : - 2.10 JPY / 1kWh FAC : - 2.10 JPY / 1kWh
FAC : - 2.10 JPY / 1kWh
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Prospective Future Market
40
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The switching rate in UK reached 25% in 2 years after the deregulation as a result of the competitiveness among utilities, so that the potential expansion in Japan market can be expected.
Conventional utilities are getting serious to acquire customers outside of their own regions
41
Hokkaido ElectricPower Company
Tohoku ElectricPower Company
Tokyo ElectricPower Company
Chubu ElectricPower Company
Shikoku ElectricPower Company
Okinawa Electric Power Company
Kyushu ElectricPower Company
Hokuriku ElectricPower Company
Chugoku ElectricPower Company
Kansai ElectricPower Company
The market is getting more competitive.
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Retailers will have a wider range of procurement
42
Base Load market
Rules for using power interconnection
Capacity market
Supply and demand adjust market
Non-fossil value certificate market
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021~
☆schedule of execution
☆
☆ ☆
☆
☆ ☆
☆
☆
☆
start trading start delivery
start trading
start trading (FIT only)
start trading (All non-fossil power)
come into effect
start trading
Implement auction system
Implement hedge market *
Source: 29th Working Group of Regulatory Reform Promotion Meeting (Apr. 2018)
New electricity exchange markets will gradually start in 2018.
Future market (TOCOM, not JEPX)
* In order to fill the price gap among T&D territory
☆start trading
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The rate of “After-FIT” will be much lower than Retailer’s product rate.
The expiration of FIT will start in 2019
43
JPY
It will be expected to expand installation of battery to residence. Therefore, retailers desire to develop new products such as a kind of TOU and new business such as VPP.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FIT price Sell price of "After-FIT" Purchase price
Electricity price
Loss
Selling power to conventional utilities
Current “After-FIT”It is better to consume power in their house
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Unbundling T&D sectors makes market fair competitive
44
Generation
T&D
Retail
Holding company
Generation
T&D
Retail
Parent company
Subsidiarycompany
Type A Type B
Operatingcompany
Other utilities has not announced about restructuring of their organization. However anyway their T&D sectors will be also unbundled in 2020.
(Already unbundled in 2016) KEPCO
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The switching rate is expected to reach the level of 20%~30%
45
UK
FR
JP
FR: Deregulated in 2007
UK: Deregulated in 1999
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year
Switching rate in residential and small business field
Time after deregulation
Source: Domestic Retail Market Report 2007 (Ofgem)
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Gas wholesaler for new entrant retailers is appearing
46
There is no doubt that new gas wholesalers will show up in other area, especially big markets such as Osaka and Chubu in the near future.
New wholesaler(TOKYO GAS area) New retailer
Tokyo Energy Alliance
CD Energy Direct
Established by TEPCO and NITIGASin Aug. 2018
Established by CEPCO and OSAKA GAS in Apr. 2018
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Utilities desire to find overseas opportunity
47
Over The Past
In The Near Future
• Invest for LNG/Coal power generation plants in developing countries.
• Invest in fields where Japanese utilities can take advantage of their strength for both of Western countries and developing countries Effective operation for hydro and fuel
generation High quality TND network without black-
out For Now
• Invest for renewable energy in Western countries.• Build transmission and distribution network in
developing countries as export of infrastructure
We are looking for business opportunities in UK, too.
Bios of KSS speakers
General Manager, Business Consulting Dept.Katsuya Takekawa (Kay)
Held various positions life insurance companies, IT service provider, and consulting firms, before accepting his current position. His handling of numerous services for social infrastructure companies have so far earned him a robust background in project management. In the present, he has launched a business and is actively engaging in services for energy companies in Japanese deregulated market.
Manager,Business Consulting Dept.Kazuyuki Ishibashi(Bash)
He is presently holding the position through venture businesses and system integrator. He is an expert on energy liberalization, new business development, M&A and project investment evaluation. He has experience in PPS-launching projects. In the present, he provides consulting services on launching businesses to many entrepreneurs who wish to enter energy business.
48Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All RightsReserved.
Email: [email protected]
Email: [email protected]
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SANKEI NEWS (news paper) THE NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN (newspaper)
This is the Know-how book for entities into an electricity retail business in Japan.It is well-reputed since it was released, and it gets a lot of media attention.
It became “Amazon ranking No.1”
in the energy category right afterit was released on Jan. 21, 2016.
Our Guidebook is the bestseller
49
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関電システムソリューションズ株式会社
Copyright (C) Kanden System Solutions Co.,Inc All Rights Reserved.
Energy Trade Mission to Japan
2019
Date: Monday 28 January – Friday 1 February 2019
Speaking opportunity in two seminars in Tokyo (Ambassador’s Residence, ENEX trade fair)
Networking Reception Exhibit at ENEX Trade Fair in the UK pavilion for three days
For more details, please visit:http://www.exporttojapan.co.uk/event/energy-trade-mission-japan-2019-uk-companies
Application deadline: 31 October 2019