Dena Belzer | April 25, 2013

Local Government Commission Silicon Valley Dinner Forum

Defining Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)

What is Transit Oriented Development (TOD)?

TOD is new development or significant reinvestment in existing properties located within ! to " mile of a transit station that:

!!Generates ridership for the transit system, !!Lowers people’s cost to live and work !!Increases opportunities/ choices for accessing housing and jobs.

So How Does TOD Work?

In California, people who live within a half-mile radius are 5 times as likely to walk to a major transit stop than others. Those who live further from a transit node are less likely to bother with the train or bus.

When Most People Think about TOD, They Think This:

A single mixed use building with 3-4 stories over retail shops on the ground floor next to a light rail station

But, TOD Is Not a “One Size Fits All” Proposition

TOD Can Provide Significant Benefits

!! Increase land and property values near transit !! Improve access to jobs !! Reduce public infrastructure costs !! Reduce transportation costs for residents !! Improve public health through walking and

biking !! Contribute to a competitive regional economic

climate

What Can TOD Do for Silicon Valley Traffic Congestion?

Who Are All of These People (in their cars)?

Commuters!

X X X X X X X X Xx x

In Reality, Adding TOD Won’t Directly Reduce Congestion, But Transit Allows for More Economic Growth and Vitality… Even With Congestion

Imagine if All of These People Drove to Work!

And, The Commuter is Critical For Transit Ridership - You Need Good Transit to Have TOD

Work Trips are Less than 20% of Total Trips

Work Trips Fundamental to Transit Commute (60%)

!! By a wide margin, the largest group of transit trips are commute trips

!! Commuters are key to transit’s productivity Source: Pisarski, Commuting in America

Destinations Matter For All Types of Transit Corridors (Urban and Suburban)

Source: CTOD Source: CTOD

In The Bay Area, A Significant Number of People Who Live And Work Near Transit Commute by Transit

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

live & work <1/2 mi Live & work > 1/2 mi

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transit share of commute trips

Source: Metropolitan Transportation Commission

Most Transit Oriented Districts in Silicon Valley Are Already Performing Well in Terms of Reduced Vehicle Miles Traveled

What Can TOD Do For City Budgets?

Over Time, Existing Property Values Near Transit Increase

Transit Supports Walkable Places, That Then Support Better Retail Sales

A tale of two bookstores: !! Bethesda store anchors a

walkable downtown shopping area. Rockville store is in a strip mall.

!! The Bethesda store earned 15% more than Rockville in one year and made 20% more per sq. ft.

!! People stay longer, spend more and are more likely to hang out in Bethesda.

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Compact Development, including TOD, Benefits Fiscal Health by Increasing Revenues per Acre

!! Multifamily housing in “urban core” cities can generate 9 times more revenue per acre than traditional large-lot single-family housing on at the region’s edge (fringe)

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$40,000

$80,000

$120,000

$160,000

Fringe Single-Family

Suburban Infill Townhouse

Urban Infill Multi-Family

Revenues per Acre by Density and Location State of California

Source: Calthorpe Associates & Strategic Economics, "Rapid Fire Fiscal Analysis Results," 2010.

Compact Development, including TOD Also Benefits Fiscal Health by Lowering Infrastructure Costs

!! Building infrastructure to serve new development on the region’s edge (fringe) can cost two to three times more per acre than urban infill development

$0

$40,000

$80,000

$120,000

$160,000

$200,000

Fringe Suburban Infill Urban Infill

Infrastructure Costs per Acre for Small-Lot Single-Family Development by Location

State of California

Source: Calthorpe Associates & Strategic Economics, "Rapid Fire Fiscal Analysis Results," 2010.

Let’s consider the Grand Boulevard Initiative As a “Proxy” For TOD Potential in Silicon Valley

!! 43-mile State Road 82 !! Daly City to San Jose !! Parallel transit lines !! “Coalition of the willing”

•! 19 cities in 2 counties •! Federal, state and local

governments •! Transportation agencies •! Business and

development community

•! Environmental and housing advocates

Summary of Growth Scenarios: Projected New Households and Jobs in 2035

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*These projections are pegged to outdated regional growth forecasts

All Five Scenarios Can Be Accommodated Within the Existing Character of El Camino

!! Land capacity > amount of land required for infill !! Can be achieved with financially feasible

products at a range of densities

25-35 DU/AC – 3-4 stories, stacked attached townhomes, tuck-under parking

70-85 DU/AC – 6-8 stories, flats over structured parking/ground floor retail

20-25 DU/AC – 2+ stories, attached townhomes, underground parking

Fiscal Benefits of GBI Development ~ $330 million to $752 million in local tax revenues

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Greenbelt Alliance FOCUS PDAs GBI Baseline GBI Moderate GBI Enhanced

Mill

ions

Property Tax - Housing Property Tax - Commercial Sales Tax from New Household Spending

Conversion of Low-Performing Retail Sites to Higher Intensity Uses Can Provide Increased Revenues

Daly City Example !! Mission Street is planned

to support approximately 800 new housing units.

!! Even with this significant increase, the only projected major cost increase would be for Police services.

!! While final numbers are not yet available, our preliminary analysis suggests that this growth will generate considerable new revenue for the City’s General Fund.

How Does TOD Support an Aging Population?

Transit and TOD Provides Mobility Options for Seniors

!! A 2008 AARP poll found that 44% of elderly say that they do not have enough access to public transportation.

!! 54% said that they would walk, bicycle and take transit more if their streets were improved.

!! In 2000, 71% of elderly polled indicated transit access was a priority.

San Mateo County Is Projected to Experience a Significant Increase in its Senior Population by 2030

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

Homeowner with Mortgage

Homeowner without Mortgage

Renter

San Mateo

San Francisco

Marin

Nine-County Bay Area Average

Source: UCLA Center for Health Polibyc Research and Insight Center for Community Economic Development, 2008; Strategic Economics, 2008

Cost of Living for Adults 65+

San Mateo County is the Most Expensive County in the State for Seniors

Mobility and Access Challenges For San Mateo County Seniors

!! Spread-out neighborhoods hinder walking, bicycling, and taking transit

!! Public transit is unavailable, inconvenient, or inaccessible in many neighborhoods

!! Driving becomes more challenging with age

Source: San Mateo County

A Small Percentage of Seniors in San Mateo Co. Live Near Transit

!! 20 percent of seniors lived near transit in 2000

!! This compares with 28 percent in Alameda County

Seniors’ Housing and Transportation Needs

!! Need a variety of housing types

!! Need transportation options

!! May need lower cost housing options

!! Will be interested in multigenerational housing

TOD Can Also Free Up Existing Single Family Homes for Younger Households

In Conclusion…

TOD Is One More Arrow… ! TOD is an important tool

for addressing many challenges facing Silicon Valley

! The return on investment for supporting TOD and Transit is very high!

! Implementing TOD is complex and needs “champions”