Demography What do populations tell us about what we need?

DemographyDemography

What do What do populations tell populations tell us about what us about what

we need? we need?

DemographyDemography

The study of population. Includes:The study of population. Includes: Population densityPopulation density Population distributionPopulation distribution Dependency ratioDependency ratio Population pyramidsPopulation pyramids Demographic transition modelsDemographic transition models Population projectionsPopulation projections

Components of Components of Population GrowthPopulation Growth

Rate of Rate of Natural IncreaseNatural Increase Obtained by subtracting the:Obtained by subtracting the:

• death rate (# of deaths in a country per 1,000 death rate (# of deaths in a country per 1,000 people) from the people) from the

• birth rate (# of births in a country per 1,000 people)birth rate (# of births in a country per 1,000 people)• = Rate of Natural Increase= Rate of Natural Increase

Components of Population GrowthComponents of Population Growth

Population Growth RatePopulation Growth Rate – Includes: – Includes: Net Migration and Natural IncreaseNet Migration and Natural Increase

Net migrationNet migration - Obtained by subtracting - Obtained by subtracting the:the: emigration rate emigration rate

• (the # of people leaving Canada) from: (the # of people leaving Canada) from: Immigration rate Immigration rate

• (the # of people arriving in Canada)(the # of people arriving in Canada)

Population Growth RatePopulation Growth Rate

Birth rate – death rate + net migration rateBirth rate – death rate + net migration rate

= Population Growth Rate= Population Growth Rate the increase (or decrease) in the total number the increase (or decrease) in the total number

of people in Canada in a given yearof people in Canada in a given year

Fertility Rate & Status of WomenFertility Rate & Status of Women

Fertility RateFertility Rate : Average number of live : Average number of live births each year for every woman of births each year for every woman of childbearing agechildbearing age

For example: In Canada, the fertility rate is 1.57 children born/woman (2008 est.) So on average, most women have less than 2 children in their lifetime.

Fertility Rate & Status of WomenFertility Rate & Status of Women economic development and economic development and

the fertility rate of countries the fertility rate of countries are strongly connectedare strongly connected decline in # of children a decline in # of children a

woman has frees her to woman has frees her to improve her life & the lives of improve her life & the lives of her childrenher children

better educated women have better educated women have fewer children – tend to marry fewer children – tend to marry later and have fewer children, later and have fewer children, usually because they are better usually because they are better educated about contraception educated about contraception and better able to resist family and better able to resist family pressure to have more childrenpressure to have more children

Fertility Rate & Status of WomenFertility Rate & Status of Women

children of educated children of educated women also more likely to women also more likely to survivesurvive

know more about the know more about the importance of importance of immunization, clean water, immunization, clean water, and good nutritionand good nutrition

study in Peru – showed study in Peru – showed infant mortality rate infant mortality rate dropped for every year of dropped for every year of schooling the mother hadschooling the mother had

key to improving status of key to improving status of women: educationwomen: education

Demographic Transition Model Demographic Transition Model (DTM)(DTM)

Describes population change over time or Describes population change over time or transitions, in birth rates and death rates in transitions, in birth rates and death rates in industrialized societies over the past 200 industrialized societies over the past 200 yearsyears

Demographic Transition Model – 5 stagesDemographic Transition Model – 5 stages Stage 1 – Pre-Modern – Pre-IndustrialStage 1 – Pre-Modern – Pre-Industrial

Small population growthSmall population growth Balance between birth and death ratesBalance between birth and death rates Life expectancy LOWLife expectancy LOW

Demographic Transition Model – 5 stagesDemographic Transition Model – 5 stages

Rise in population caused by decline in death rateRise in population caused by decline in death rate (due to better health care, medicine, sanitation, (due to better health care, medicine, sanitation, technology, farming techniques, food supply, technology, farming techniques, food supply, education, etc.) education, etc.) while birth rate remains high or riseswhile birth rate remains high or rises

Rapid increase in population numbers due to Rapid increase in population numbers due to improved medical and scientific advances to sustain improved medical and scientific advances to sustain lifelife

Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage stage experience a large increase in populationexperience a large increase in population. .

Stage 2 – Urbanizing / Industrializing – Stage 2 – Urbanizing / Industrializing – Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries


Stage 3 – Mature / IndustrializingStage 3 – Mature / Industrializing Decline in birth rate results in Decline in birth rate results in more stable populationmore stable population Improved living standardsImproved living standards birth rates fall due to:birth rates fall due to:

• access to contraception, access to contraception, • increases in wages, increases in wages, • urbanization, urbanization, • a reduction in subsistence agriculture, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, • an increase in the status and education of women, an increase in the status and education of women, • a reduction in the value of children's work, a reduction in the value of children's work, • an increase in parental investment in the education of an increase in parental investment in the education of

children and other social changeschildren and other social changes Population growth begins to level offPopulation growth begins to level off

Demographic Transition Model – 5 stagesDemographic Transition Model – 5 stages Stage 4 – Post IndustrialStage 4 – Post Industrial

Characterized by Characterized by stability (linked to economic stabilitystability (linked to economic stability)) Population age structure has become older due to low birth Population age structure has become older due to low birth

rates and death ratesrates and death rates Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has

happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. industries that rely on population growth.

The large group born during stage two ages & creates an The large group born during stage two ages & creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. economic burden on the shrinking working population.

Death rates may remain consistently low or increase Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries. developed countries.


Stage 5 – De-industrializingStage 5 – De-industrializing Birth rates drop below death ratesBirth rates drop below death rates

• Represent countries that have undergone the economic transition from manufacturing based industries into service and information based industries called deindustrialization

• Countries such as Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, England and most notably Japan, whose populations are now reproducing well below their replacement levels, are not producing enough children to replace their parent's generation.

Changes in Canada’s Population & Changes in Canada’s Population & the World’s Populationthe World’s Population

Canada’s birth rate and death rate have been Canada’s birth rate and death rate have been dropping steadily in the past 30 yearsdropping steadily in the past 30 years

Overall – population is getting olderOverall – population is getting older

Will have Will have significant significant effects on effects on Canada’s Canada’s health care health care system and system and social servicessocial services

Canada’s PopulationCanada’s Population Canada’s age structure – Canada’s age structure – major factor in major factor in

determining immigration policydetermining immigration policy Currently – government strives for 1% of the Currently – government strives for 1% of the

population to be from immigration (about population to be from immigration (about 200,000 immigrants /year)200,000 immigrants /year)

However – currently only meeting 0.7% However – currently only meeting 0.7%

WHY?WHY?

THINK – PAIR-SHARE:THINK – PAIR-SHARE: Why will Canada’s low growth rate Why will Canada’s low growth rate have have

significant effects on Canada’s health care significant effects on Canada’s health care system and social services?system and social services?

Why is Canada’s age structure a Why is Canada’s age structure a major major factor in determining our immigration factor in determining our immigration policy policy (the number of people we allow into (the number of people we allow into the country per year)the country per year)??

Population DistributionPopulation Distribution Refers to the way people are distributed across the Refers to the way people are distributed across the

Earth’s surfaceEarth’s surface Has always been uneven - High concentrations in small Has always been uneven - High concentrations in small

areas areas Over 50% of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the landOver 50% of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the land 90% live on 20% of the land90% live on 20% of the land Approximately 35% of world’s land not good for settlementApproximately 35% of world’s land not good for settlement

Population DistributionPopulation Distribution Concentration explained by:Concentration explained by: Many areas of the Earth’ land are inhospitable Many areas of the Earth’ land are inhospitable

(difficult to live in) due to:(difficult to live in) due to: AccessibilityAccessibility (i.e. to transportation and / or (i.e. to transportation and / or

communication)communication) ClimateClimate (i.e. too hot or too cold), not enough rainfall(i.e. too hot or too cold), not enough rainfall The LandscapeThe Landscape (i.e. too mountainous or desert)(i.e. too mountainous or desert) The VegetationThe Vegetation (i.e. access to food and shelter)(i.e. access to food and shelter) The Resources availableThe Resources available (i.e. access to clean water)(i.e. access to clean water)

Population DistributionPopulation Distribution In Canada – 80% of people live within In Canada – 80% of people live within

200km of our Southern border (the USA)200km of our Southern border (the USA) Most choose to Most choose to

live in areas live in areas where where temperatures temperatures more moderatemore moderate (i.e. not in North)(i.e. not in North)

Majority of Majority of Canadians live in Canadians live in urban (city) urban (city) centrescentres

Population DensityPopulation Density Refers to the Refers to the number of people in a given areanumber of people in a given area Population density for an entire country – called Population density for an entire country – called

a crude densitya crude density Calculated by dividing a country’s population by Calculated by dividing a country’s population by

its areaits area

Population DensityPopulation Density 75% of the world’s population lives in Africa and 75% of the world’s population lives in Africa and

AsiaAsia Might seem overpopulated, but crude density shows Might seem overpopulated, but crude density shows

that Africa is under-populated for its land areathat Africa is under-populated for its land area Comprises 20.2% of the Earth’s landmass, yet only Comprises 20.2% of the Earth’s landmass, yet only

hold 12.7% of the Earth’s populationhold 12.7% of the Earth’s population

Europe – 3.3% Europe – 3.3% landmass – landmass – holds 10% of holds 10% of Earth’s Earth’s populationpopulation

WHY? HOW?WHY? HOW?

Why is there Why is there uneven population uneven population distributiondistribution in the world and in Canada? in the world and in Canada?

How could How could population density affectpopulation density affect the the physical and human environment?physical and human environment?

Resources

Landscape

Climate

GovernmentPolicies

Disease

Development

Culture

Communication

Accessibility

Water

VegetationSoils

PopulationDensity

Physical Factors

Human Factors

Demographic Tools - Demographic Tools - Population CensusPopulation Census

To help governments maintain accurate records To help governments maintain accurate records of its people, most countries conduct a of its people, most countries conduct a population census every 5-10 yearspopulation census every 5-10 years

Data includes population count, birthplace, age, Data includes population count, birthplace, age, sex, first language, level of literacy, employment, sex, first language, level of literacy, employment, income, etc.income, etc.

WHY? HOW?WHY? HOW?

How and why is census data used to How and why is census data used to inform governments and their future plans inform governments and their future plans (policies)?(policies)?

Demographic Tools - Demographic Tools - Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids

Show population structures of countriesShow population structures of countries Provide insight into “problems” and give Provide insight into “problems” and give

reasons for shifts in population trendsreasons for shifts in population trends Most basic: age-sex structure – shown in Most basic: age-sex structure – shown in

population pyramidspopulation pyramids

Population PyramidPopulation Pyramid Graph that shows the age and sex make up of a Graph that shows the age and sex make up of a

populationpopulation Shows percentage of people in each age group Shows percentage of people in each age group

& percentage of males and females in each age & percentage of males and females in each age groupgroup

Useful – helps predict Useful – helps predict future population future population trendstrends

i.e. if few women of i.e. if few women of childbearing age, childbearing age, population may population may decrease due to low decrease due to low birth ratebirth rate

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html

http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm

Population Pyramids - ExamplesPopulation Pyramids - Examples There are 4 main types of Population There are 4 main types of Population

Pyramids:Pyramids:

1.1. ExpandingExpanding

2.2. Early ExpandingEarly Expanding

3.3. ContractingContracting

4.4. StableStable

ExpandingExpanding



Early ExpandingEarly Expanding



StableStable

Japan



ContractingContracting



Population Pyramids - GrowthPopulation Pyramids - Growth

Dependency Ratio / LoadDependency Ratio / Load Dependency ratioDependency ratio refers to the refers to the proportion of the population proportion of the population

that is being supported by (or is DEPENDENT ON) the that is being supported by (or is DEPENDENT ON) the working-age-group (15-65 years old)working-age-group (15-65 years old)

Those who work experience a greater financial burden if Those who work experience a greater financial burden if their country has a high dependency ratiotheir country has a high dependency ratio

Africa – 40% of the population – under 15 years oldAfrica – 40% of the population – under 15 years old High birth rateHigh birth rate Expanding populationExpanding population Stage 2 of DTMStage 2 of DTM

HOW? WHY?HOW? WHY?

How can governments use population How can governments use population pyramids to help inform their future plans pyramids to help inform their future plans (policies)?(policies)?

Why is the dependency ratio of a country Why is the dependency ratio of a country particularly important for governments to particularly important for governments to know?know?

OverpopulationOverpopulation

Countries that have too many Countries that have too many people for a given resource people for a given resource base and a given level of base and a given level of technological developmenttechnological development

When exceeded its “carrying When exceeded its “carrying capacity” – level at which land capacity” – level at which land can no longer support its can no longer support its people (i.e. low food supplies)people (i.e. low food supplies)

Result - Many people:Result - Many people: live in poverty live in poverty Lack adequate food, water, and Lack adequate food, water, and

sheltershelter Rely heavily on importing Rely heavily on importing

necessary goodsnecessary goods

Stress on Infrastructure

(i.e. roads, schools,

hospitals)

Food Shortages

Destruction of

Environment

Increase in Unemploym

ent

Technology – energy

alternatives?

Energy shortages

Resource Depletioni.e. - water

Increase in Pollution

Housing Shortages

Population Growth – Potential Problems

Overpopulation - ResponsesOverpopulation - Responses

1970s – China had 1970s – China had one of the highest one of the highest population growth population growth rates in the worldrates in the world 1 billion people – 1 billion people –

1/5 world’s 1/5 world’s population at the population at the timetime

Women averaged 6 Women averaged 6 children eachchildren each

China’s One Child Policy - 1979China’s One Child Policy - 1979

At this point - # of At this point - # of births reduced to 2.7 births reduced to 2.7 children per womanchildren per woman

Government offered Government offered rewards to families rewards to families such as:such as: Free medical careFree medical care Monthly wage bonusesMonthly wage bonuses Preferential housingPreferential housing Extra pension incomeExtra pension income

China’s One Child PolicyChina’s One Child Policy

If family had a 2If family had a 2ndnd child – suffered child – suffered penalties such aspenalties such as Cancellation of benefitsCancellation of benefits FinesFines Wage reductionsWage reductions

China’s One Child PolicyChina’s One Child Policy Problems:Problems:

Greater in urban areas Greater in urban areas due to financial due to financial benefitsbenefits

Rural areas – reply on Rural areas – reply on children as labourers – children as labourers –

Value sons above Value sons above daughtersdaughters

Some families resort to Some families resort to infanticide (murder) of infanticide (murder) of female babiesfemale babies

Others ignore policy in Others ignore policy in favour of their desired favour of their desired family structurefamily structure

• Current Status: average 1.8 Current Status: average 1.8 children per womanchildren per woman

• Still in effect todayStill in effect today

WHY? HOW?WHY? HOW?

Should governments have the power to Should governments have the power to control the population rate through legal control the population rate through legal means? means?

Responses to Control Responses to Control Population GrowthPopulation Growth

Improve TechnologyImprove Technology Though application of Though application of

science, including:science, including:• ComputersComputers• Cell phonesCell phones• TVsTVs

Countries with higher Countries with higher levels of technology levels of technology tend to have more tend to have more developed economiesdeveloped economies

Responses to Population GrowthResponses to Population Growth

Family PlanningFamily Planning / / Controlling Controlling Population Growth Population Growth RateRate Reduced population Reduced population

reduces strain on reduces strain on resources (natural, resources (natural, economic, etc.)economic, etc.)

Leads to a general Leads to a general increase in standard increase in standard of livingof living


Increase Resource Increase Resource Base / Lessen DisparityBase / Lessen Disparity Use own resources to Use own resources to

develop itself – could develop itself – could include:include:

Work forceWork force Natural resourcesNatural resources TechnologyTechnology Financial institutionsFinancial institutions


Improve Improve Literacy RatesLiteracy Rates Giving a population Giving a population

skills to read will skills to read will improve access to improve access to higher paying jobshigher paying jobs

This in turn will This in turn will improve overall improve overall quality of life and quality of life and standard of livingstandard of living


Increase Increase Opportunities Opportunities for Womenfor Women Leads to Leads to

improved improved economic economic development development for for allall

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Demography What do populations tell us about what we need?