Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections of Texas Children

NALEO Roundtable on the Youngest Texans

Austin, TX

January 16, 2019

@TexasDemography

Population Growth of Select States, 2000‐2018

2

2000Population

2010Population

2018 Population

NumericChange

2010‐2018

PercentChange

2010‐2018

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 327,167,434 18,409,329 6%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,701,845 3,555,731 14%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,557,045 2,302,522 6%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 21,299,325 2,494,745 13%

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,519,475 830,766 9%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,383,620 847,884 9%

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,535,591 811,051 12%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,171,646 779,358 12%

Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,695,564 666,248 13%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2018 Population Estimates.

Texas Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2010‐2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2017 Population Estimates

9.5

11.211.411.9

2.93.4

1.01.4

0.4 0.50

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Millions

Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other

3

Race/Ethnicity Composition and Change among Children, Texas, 2010 & 2017  

2010 2017 NumericChange

Percent Change

All Children, Under 18 6,865,824 7,366,039 500,215 7.3%

Hispanic 3,317,777 3,645,511 327,734 9.9%

Children 0‐8 years 3,586,052 3,815,002 228,950 6.4%

Hispanic 1,769,202 1,871,670 102,468 5.8%

NH White 1,198,368 1,236,875 38,507 3.2%

NH Black 441,498 482,578 41,080 9.3%

NH Asian 150,839 192,661 41,822 27.7%

NH Other 26,145 31,218 5,073 19.4%

4Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Decennial Census and 2017 Population Estimates

Total Fertility Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 1990‐2017 

5

2.25

1.922.1

1.85

1.71

2.99

2.142.39

1.83

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2010 2013 2017

Texas Replacement TFR NH White Hispanic NH Black

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports

Child Well‐Being in Texas

• Texas ranked 43rd in latest national rankings of child well‐being.• 35th in economic well‐being

• Over 454, 000 (22.8%) Texas children under age 5 live in poverty (SAIPE, 2017); • 20.6% of Hispanic families live below poverty. 39.7% of Hispanic female householder 

families live in poverty

• 32nd in education• 469,000 (58%) of 3 and 4 year‐olds not enrolled in school, with Hispanics having the 

highest rate (63%) • 64.2% of Hispanics have HS degree or higher, compared to 93.5% for NH White• 13.8% of Hispanics have BA degree or higher, compared to  37.3% for NH White

• 47th in family and community• Nearly 2.5 million (35%) Texas children live in single‐parent families.• More than half (54‐56%) of Hispanic children live in single‐parent families.

• 41st in health• Over 735,000 (9.7%) Texas children are uninsured. Second lowest child health 

insurance rate in the country. (SAHIE, 2016)

6Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2018 Kids Count Data Book; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2013‐2017 5‐Year Estimates

Child Well‐Being in Texas

• 2.4 million (34%) Texas children live in immigrant families

• 90% of these children are U.S. citizens• 13.3% of Texas K‐12 students have at least one parent who is unauthorized (2016, Pew Research Center)

• 2.07 million (28%) Texas children live in families receiving public assistance

• Texas ranks 4th in births to teens and 1st in repeat births to teens

• In U.S. in 2015, homicide 3rd leading cause of death for children under 5 and 4th for children under 10. (CDC, National Center for Health Statistics)

7Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2018 Kids Count Data Book

Teen (ages 15 to 19 years) Birth Rates, U.S. and Top 15 States, 2016

State Rank Birth Rate per 1,000 Women

United States 20.3Arkansas 1 34.6Oklahoma 2 33.4Mississippi 3 32.6Texas 4 31.0Kentucky 5 30.9Louisiana 6 30.6New Mexico 7 29.8West Virginia 8 29.3Alabama 9 28.4Tennessee 10 28.0Wyoming 11 26.1Alaska 12 25.8South Dakota 13 25.1Nevada 14 24.2District of Columbia 15 24.0

8Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

2016

# of Teen Births  29,765

Change in Teen Birth RateFrom 2015 ‐10%From peak year, 1991 ‐60%

Repeat Teen BirthsNumber  5,748Percent  19%

# of Teen Births by Race/EthnicityNH White  6,007NH Black  3,825Hispanic  19,604Asian/Pacific Islander  187

2015

Teen Birth Rate by Race/EthnicityNH White 20.9NH Black 34.3Hispanic 47.6

Population Projections

Projected Population, 2010‐2050, Texas

10

31.2

40.5

54.4

47.3

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Millions

Zero Migration

0.5 Migration

1.0 Migration

2010‐2015 Migration

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections 

Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2050

11Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections 

13.5

6.0

20.2

5.8

1.80

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Millions

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other

Projected Race/Ethnicity Composition by Age Group, Texas, 2010 & 2050

Year NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic

Children (Under 18 years)2010 34% 12% 3% 3% 48%

2050 22% 12% 11% 6% 49%

Working Age (18 to 64 years)2010 47% 12% 4% 2% 36%

2050 28% 13% 13% 4% 42%

Seniors (65 plus years)2010 68% 8% 3% 1% 20%

2050 39% 12% 10% 2% 37%

12Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

Project Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010‐2050

13

3.47 3.58 3.77 4.05 4.32 4.58 4.82 5.09 5.423.40 3.58 3.75 3.88 4.13 4.44 4.75 5.04 5.332.57 2.83 2.98 3.17 3.29 3.43 3.72 4.01 4.3113.10 14.14 15.27 16.35 17.57

19.0220.49

22.1823.98

2.603.20

3.914.76

5.586.24

6.917.54

8.31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

MILLIONS

00‐08 09‐17 18‐24 25‐64 65‐95+

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

Hispanic Population Ages 0‐8 as Percent of State Hispanic Population Ages 0‐8, 2010 & 2050

14Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

0.00% - 0.49%

0.50% - 0.99%

1.00% - 4.99%

5.00% - 9.99%

10.00% - 18.30%

Projected Race/Ethnicity Composition for Population 0‐8 Years of Age, Texas, 2010‐2050

15Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

32% 31% 30% 29% 27% 25% 24% 23% 22%

11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%

50% 50% 50% 50% 51% 51% 51% 50% 50%

3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 9% 10% 11%

3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

NH White Total NH Black Total Hispanic Total NH Asian Total NH Other Total

16

Office: (512) 936‐3542Lila.Valencia@utsa.edudemographics.texas.gov

Lila Valencia, Ph.D.

@TexasDemography