Demographic impacts on elderly support

Guo ZhigangDepartment of Sociology, Peking University, 100871, China

zguo@pku.edu.cn

Change in mean size of household

Figure 1 Change of mean size of household in China

4.334.43

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3.96

3.70

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Crude B

irth Rate, ‰

Mean Size of HH Mean Size of FHH CBR

Decomposing the Change of mean size of household

•Population by Age (%) •1982 •1990 •2000

•0-14 33.59 27.69 22.89

•15-64 61.50 66.74 70.15

•65+ 4.91 5.57 6.96

1982-1990: MS=4.41-3.96= 0.45, MC=1.48-1.10= 0.38 (85.5%)

1990-2000: MS=3.96-3.44= 0.52, MC=1.10-0.79= 0.31 (59.4%)

•0-14 1.48 1.10 0.79

•15-64 2.71 2.64 2.41

•65+ 0.22 0.22 0.24

•Mean Size of FHH (persons) 4.41 3.96 3.44

Figure 2. China population by household type: 1990--- cumulate percent in age-group total

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Figure 2. China population by household type: 1990--- cumulate percent in age-group total

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Population by age by HH type

2-generation2-generation

3-generation3-generation

CoupleCouple

SingleSingle

Percent of the elderly(65+) not living with offsprings

Year Male Female All

1982 26.83 24.57 25.58

1990 29.78 24.44 26.86

2000 37.42 29.85 33.43

The elderly and the Family in China

Figure 3 Family type percent of womenaged 60-64 by children number: China 1990

27.322.8 20.5

39

66.673

77.3

48.8

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number of children survial

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The elderly and the Family in China

Figure 4 Inter-generational net wealth flow by residence and age group: 1992

City inter-generation flow:--- in cumulate percent

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Village inter-generation flow:--- in cumulate percent

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gaingaingaingain

givegive

eveneven

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City inter-generation flow:--- in cumulate percent

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Village inter-generation flow:--- in cumulate percent

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gaingaingaingain

givegive

eveneven

evenevengivegive

Map by fertility policyMap by fertility policy

Implications by fertlility policy

Table 8 Population Distribution by Policy Implemented

1 Child 1.5 Children 2 Children 3 Children

35.4 % 53.6 % 9.7 % 1.3 %

Table 9 Distribution of Couples according to Fertility Policies

1 Child 2 Children 3 Children

63.1 % 35.6 % 1.3 %

Fertility by the policies

Table 10 Average Policy Fertility Level

Region Weighted Revised TFR

National 1.465

East 1.385

Central 1.472

West 1.560

West2 1.728

•Note: West 2 stands for the calculation for the west region without Chongqin municipality and Sichuan province, where one child policy is implemented.

Population Ageing

Table 11 China’s population age structure

Year 1953 1964 1982 1990 2000

Population aged 0-14 (%) 36.28 40.69 33.59 27.69 22.89

Population aged 15-64 (%) 59.31 55.75 61.50 66.74 70.15

Population aged 65 and over (%) 4.41 3.56 4.91 5.57 6.96

Dependency ratio of children 61.2 73.0 54.6 41.5 32.6

Dependency ratio of the aged 7.4 6.4 8.0 8.3 9.9

Total dependency ratio 68.6 79.4 62.6 49.8 42.6

Only Child % in future under the policy

Proportion of Women 60+ who have just one child

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Only Child % in future under the policy

Figure 6 Percent of only child in the population aged 25-49

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Future Marriage Probability under the policy

Figure 7 Period Probability of the Marriage in the Population aged 25-49

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Urban: P(two only child)Rural: P(two only child)Urban: P(one only child)Rural: P(one only child)