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Demographic-Change-in-Saxony
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1
Saxony Liaison Office BrusselsDemographic Change in Saxony and the Demographic Change Regions Network (DCRN)
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel2
DCRNDemographic Change It happens
Aldi offers:
if Aldi reacts its seriousbusiness
2
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel3
Demographic Change It happens
DCRN
German tabloid bild.de:
Dramatic Development
Frightened by thecrisis: Less Babys throughout Europe
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel4
Demographic Change It happens
DCRN
Always in the media:
Free State needs moreflats for he elderly
2030 a third of Saxonyspopulation will be part of
the generation 65+
or Need for more age-appropriate flats
or we are running out of flats for the elderly
3
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel5
Demographic Change It happens
Team Meeting
Eat! When you area grown-up you
have to feed 1,3 pensioners!
DCRN
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel6
Demographic Change It happens
You havearrived at
yourdestination!
NEW! Senior Citizens BirthdayParties at McDonalds!
Whoorderedthe buryBurger? I ordered
a Happy Last Meal!
DCRN
4
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel7
Demographic Change It happens
-14,01 9342 244Thringen
-2,02 7762 829Schleswig-Holstein
-16,11 9772 352Sachsen-Anhalt
-9,43 7784 165Sachsen
-10,29181 022Saarland
-2,83 9004 014Rheinland-Pfalz
-4,317 11217 870Nordrhein-Westfalen
-4,87 5467 920Niedersachsen
-10,81 4731 649Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
-3,05 8816 047Hessen
4,41 8531 778Hamburg
-2,5645660Bremen
-6,22 3552 509Brandenburg
-2,03 3733 419Berlin
0,712 59412 512Bayern
-1,010 64010 740Baden-Wrttemberg
%in 1.000
Change20252009Inhabitants
DCRN
Quellen: Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen, Statistisches Bundesamt - 31.12.2009: Bevlkerungsfortschreibung; 2025: 12. koord. Bevlkerungsvorausberechnung, Variante 1-W1 (Wert fr Sachsen entspricht der 5. Regionalisierten Bevlkerungsprognose fr den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 1); Gebietsstand 01.01.10, Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35
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Demographic Change It happens
DCRN
Sources: Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 1990-2011:
Bevlkerungsfortschreibung - jeweils zum 31.12.; 2012-2025: Daten aus der 5. Regionalisierten Bevlkerungsprognose fr den Freistaat Sachsen
Population Development in the Free State of Saxony 1990 until 2025
5
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Demographic Change Its happensLabour force potential is declining!Development of the labour force potential until compared
with the year 2010 (2010 = 100 %)
DCRN
Sources: Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 1990-2011:
Bevlkerungsfortschreibung - jeweils zum 31.12.; 2012-2025: Daten aus der 5. Regionalisierten Bevlkerungsprognose fr den Freistaat Sachsen
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel10
Demographic Change It happens
DCRNBirths per Woman in the Free State of Saxony 1990 2011
Sources: Grafik: Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35Daten: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen
*altersspezifische Geburtenziffern fr Frauen im Alter von 15 bis unter 45 Jahren
Hinweis: ab 2008 altersspezifische Geburtenziffern fr Frauen im Alter von 15 bis unter 50 Jahren
6
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Demographic Change It happens
1,261,291,21HH
1,271,311,24HB
1,281,261,24SL
1,311,351,19B
1,341,361,36BY
1,361,381,36BW
1,361,401,39NRW
1,361,391,35D
1,371,381,36RP
1,371,451,40SH
1,381,421,43NI
1,391,401,36HE
1,401,411,26ST
1,411,451,28BB
1,411,431,29TH
1,411,481,34MV
1,481,491,34SN
201120102004
Number of children per woman
Sources: Daten - Statistisches Bundesamt, eigene Berechnungen; Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35
DCRN
*altersspezifische Geburtenziffern fr Frauen im Alter von 15 bis unter 50 Jahren,
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Demographic Change It happensProjection of the Population Development until 2025 compared to 2011 (5th regional
Population Developmet Projection, Variantion 1
DCRN
Sources:Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 31.12.2011: Bevlkerungsfortschreibung; 2025:
5. Regionalisierte Bevlkerungsprognose fr den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 1; Gebietsstand 01.01.12
-8,73.777,54.137,1Freistaat Sachsen
-10,8182,0204,2LK Nordsachsen
-8,8241,8265,3LK Leipzig
1,3538,6531,8KFS Leipzig
-7,5232,2250,9LK Schsische Schweiz-Osterzgebirge
-10,9223,9251,3LK Meien
-15,1232,1273,5LK Grlitz
-14,2273,5318,6LK Bautzen
4,6554,0529,8KFS Dresden
-14,7288,5338,3LK Zwickau
-15,2205,0241,6LK Vogtlandkreis
-14,6277,5324,9LK Mittelsachsen
-15,5307,3363,7LK Erzgebirgskreis
-9,1221,1243,2KFS Chemnitz
%In 1.000
Change20252011Population
7
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Demographic Change It happensDCRN
Projection of the Population Development until 2025 in the municipalities (5th regional Population Developmet Projection, Variantion 2
Sources:Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 31.12.2011: Bevlkerungsfortschreibung; Gebietsstand 01.01.12; 2025: 5. Regionalisierte Bevlkerungsprognose fr den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 2; Hinweis: Prognoseergebnisse werden nur fr Gemeinden verffentlicht, die am 31. Dezember 2008 mindestens 5 000 Einwohner hatten.
Hoyerswerda
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Demographic Change Trends and Facts in Saxony
Since 2011 more people coming to Saxony than leaving (esp. to Dresden, Leipzig, Chemnitz, education migrants [Bildungswanderer])
Since 2010 highest brith-rate of all German Lnder (2011: 1,48 Geburten per woman)
Cities of Dresden und Leipzig growing (some of the surrounding suburbs aregrowing in places)
Population density right at the German average (D=229; Saxony=225) Longer life in a healthy condition
2nd with regard to the average age of the population of the German Lnder (2011: 47 years)
Rural, peripheral areas regions are shrinkings and ageing relatively fast (border regions to Poland and the Czech Republic etc.)
Population decline esp. In rural areas and industrial areas in decline Ageing of the people that are economically active (Problem of skilled
labour force/ young professionals)
DCRN(+)
(-)
8
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History of the Town Development
WK 10 1986 - 90
KhnichtWK 9Grnewaldring 1973 - 75
WK 81966 - 72
WK 11957 - 64
WK 3eWK 2
HistoricCenter
1975 1957 - 64 WK 3
1959 - 61
Klein ZeiigNew Town Center WK 4
1968 - 95 1961 - 64
WK 5 1962 - 64
WK 5e 1962 - 75
WK 7 1965 - 66
WK 61964 - 65
1423 Town Charter
Industrial Revolution at the end of the19th - upswing (brown coal mining, glas industry and railway)
1955 Start of the assembling of the thecombine/collective power plant Schwarze Pumpe (Black Pump)
1957 Laying of the foundation stone of theNeustadt (New Town) on theEastern Banks of the Schwarze Elster River and start of theincorporation controlled/steeredimmigration
1989/1990 The Turnaround - Start of a fundamental change of the econmicstructures
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel16
Spatial Context
Cottbus
Mining Structures Spatial Context LausitzerSeenland (Lusatian Lakeland)
District of Bautzen
BautzenDresden
9
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Development of Hoyerswerda - aerial photo comparison 1953 and 2002
Seidewinkel
Khnicht
Historic Town Center
1953 2002Seidewinkel
Historic Town Center Khnicht
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel18
Population Development with the current area of the municipality with prognosis until 2030
80.000 74.481
70.000 62.908
60.00060.595
50.000 50.203
40.000 42.607
29.431 33.180
30.000 18.783
1998 last Incorporation
20.000 13.538 23.410 10.000 4.430
0 Prognose
Population in the current area of the municipality 5th regional Prognosis. Var. 1
Var. 2 Prognosis Bertelsmann-Foundation
Quelle: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen, 5. Regionalisierte Bevlkerungsprognose V1 und V2, Prognose Bertelsmann-Stiftung
Whereas the decline of population in Saxony is mainly caused by a low birth rate, Hoyerswerda was hit by an exodus since 1990. This exodus is slowing down since 2003. The birth deficit will level at -400 p.a. in Hoyerswerda.
71.484
36.616
1980: The populationshas grown since 1957 through immigration(400% increase)
1990: The migrationsarts due to economicreasons
On 31.12.2011 31.800 inhabitants lesscompared to 1990 areliving in Hoyerswerda.
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Alter in Jahren
100
Comparison of the population structure 95 90
85 Average age of the population of Hyerswerda 1990 until 2009 and prognosisuntil 2025 in years
1990 35,2
1995 38,9
2000 42,9
2005 46,8
2009 49,7
2015 53,1
2020 55,1
2025 56,5
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10 20095 2025
0
mnnlich
600 400 200 0 0 200 400 600
People weiblich Saxony
Germany2009
43,0 Jahre
45,7 Jahre Comparison of the population 31.12.2009 and 2025
Quelle: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen, 5. Regionalisierte Bev. Prognose, Var. 1 und Var. 2 gleiche Werte
Since 1990 thepopulation of theage group 0-30
reduced byabove 70 percent.
Whereas the age group above 60
grew by 65 percent since
1990.
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Deepening of the objectives of the deconstructin in the integrated
urband development concept (INSEK) 2008 - Hoyerswerda New Town
Almost complete deconstruction planned realisation until 2020 WK 9 and WK 10
Extensive deconstruction partly finishedConnected parts of housing areas, (e. g. WK 8, New Town Center)
Small scale deconstruction finished provisionallyGroups of houses (e.g. WK 4, 5e, WK 6, WK 7)
Selective deconstruction not finishedSingle houses (e.g. WK 3, WK 4, WK 5)
93,50 ha, which need to be unsealed The deconstruction is demand responsive. There is no statutory requirement for deconstruction.
General consideration of the goals of the deconstruction in the zonig plan of 2006
11
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel21
Housing Units and Vacancies
100%
6,3 % 5,7 %
6,0 %
8,3 %95%
11,4 %10,1 %
16,4 % 14,2 %
18,3 %
13,9 %
17,9 % 17,4 %
90%
85%
80%
75% 1990 2011 2010 2009 2008 20062005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1995
Vacancies 992 1.173 1.314 1.791 2.6293.353 3.549 4.434 4.829 4.876 4.597 1.654 0 Total Housing Units 24.142 27.444 27.027 20.221 20.96521.704 22.99524.969 25.541 26.404 27.200 28.108
Empty Accommodation Units total Accommodation Units
2007
2.264
22.482 20.570
4,9 %
Stabilizing the Housing Market
Deconstruction with the goal to have an useful cityscape and improvement of the areas hit by deconstruction
Strenghening of the historic city center and the areas that areworthy to be preserved
Deconstruction projects are processed in a close communicationprocess with the large scale landlords and the public utilitiesproviders meeds constant updating.
The current planned deconstruction process until 2020 includes12.100 accomodation units.
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Deconstruction of housing units in figures
until31.12.
m2/year in 5 years
until31.12. total
(cumulative)( cumulative)
Total m2Living spaceTotal WEHousing Units
(WE) in 5 years
Year
1993 - 2000 465 465 24.291 24.291
2001 - 2005 4.138 4.603 236.990 261.281
2006 - 2010 3.889 8.492 218.257 479.538
since 2011 389 8.881 22.080 501.618
12
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Deconstruction of Housing Units in the Residental
Complexes1.226Monitoring Deconstruction Hoyerswerda, total, 31.12.2011
1.796
1.683
150
251 485
New Town: 8.291 WE
Historic Center: 485 WE
Knappenrode: 86 WE
Other parts: 19 WE
304
1.392 299
559
Total deconstruction in New Town until 2025 ~12.095 WE
(Accomodation Units)
443
188
Adaption of the numer of accomodation units to the population
development!
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel24
Objective of the Zoning Plan
Finished
Deconstruction of
housing units, esp. in
New Town (12/2011)
Large Scale Deconstruction
WK 10
WK 9
WK 8
WK 1
WK 2 WK 3
Stand 12/2011
Deconstruction
Existing housing UnitsWK 6 + 7 WK 5
Small Scale Deconstruction
The deconstruction isdemand responsive. There isno statutory requirement for
deconstruction.
WK 4
13
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel25
Hoyerswerda
Aerial Photo 2001
Display of the large scaledeconstruction until 31.12.2011
WK 8, 9 und 10
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New Town Center 2000
14
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Strae des Friedens 21-24 demolished 2008now: Campus Meadow
Strae des Friedens 14-18 demolished2006, now: Park wirh BeachvolleyballCourts, builtt 2007
Leon-Foucault-Grammar School , refurbished 2000 to 2003
Bautzener Allee 32 b, c, d demolished 2000, now: Garden of Sculptures, built 2009
Urban restructuring New Town Center
Strae des Friedens 9-12 demolished 2007 now: family park, built 2009
Einstein-Strae 1 - 5 demolished 2001
Stadtpromenade 1-10 and 12 demolished 2002 to 2004 nowCentral parkStadtpromenade 11 refurbished2009 - 2012 and now Lausitztower
Virchowstr. 59 demolished2007
Virchowstr. 37-41; 46-49 from 2007 to 2008 restructured
Virchowstr. 53-57, refurbished 2007
Virchowstr. 42-45; 50-52 partlydemolished in 2006
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel28
2009 Development of the new
Zentalpark (Central park)
Awarded Project of the
competition
Gardens in the City 2011
2011
2008
18.06.2013 Stadtentwicklungsvortrag 39
15
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New development for the deconstruction areas
Garden of sculpturesChildrens traffic park WK 3
Beachvolleycourt
Family Park
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Redesigning the residental areas in the
Neustadt (New town)
16
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Redevelopment of residental buildings
von
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel32
Examples of Communication of the urban
restructuring
Workshops Cooperation Working Group
Urban Restructuring
Expertmeetings
Exhibition of the results
Informationcenter
Orange Box
External and internal effects!
17
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FOKUSGRUPPE
Stdtebau, Wohnen,
Verkehr
Time Out: Thinking about H.Postcards 2013
WALLI A smart flat for the elderlyVirtual tour: http://www.lebensraeume-hy.de/aktuelles/news/modellwohnung-walli-in-echt-und-virtuell-begehbar.html
Vision and Future Strategy Hoyerswerda 2025
- Active Citizens and Companies
The multi-awarded Kulturfabrik Hoyerswerda (Culture Factory) doing impressive projects dealingwith demography:
http://www.kufa-hoyerswerda.de/auszeit-nachdenken-uber-h.html and on youtube
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel34
Vision and Future Strategy Hoyerswerda 2025
18
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel35
1. Two administrative reforms on district level since 1990 (1995 und 2008)
2. One statutory municipal territory reform (1998/1999) 3. A wide range administrative- and functional
reform(2008) 4. over 800 schools shut down 5. Solid budgetary/fiscal policy (debt per capita 2010:
2.847 [Bavaria 3.380, Northrhine-Westphalia 12.775) 6. Further adaption measures (cessation of local rail
transport, thinning of public transport, urban restructuring (e. g. demolition of accomoodation units))
7. Further development and expansion of theinfrastructures (e.g. Transport, Universties) concentrated in the three big cities of Dresden, Leipzig and Chemnitz
DCRNApproach in Saxony: structure policy
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel36
DCRN1.Funding Guideline Demography2.All-day offers in schools3.Week days companion of the SMS ( started 20.03.2013) 4.Programme Open-minded Saxony5.Competition Impulsive regions of the SMI (started 21.05.2013) 6.Support of volunteer work (Funding Guideline of the SMS We forSaxony) 7.Generations Award of the Prime Minister Together8.Demography Award of the saxon craft guild 2012, 2013 9.
Approach in Saxony: : topic related measures
19
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Funding Guideline Demography
Funding Guideline since 2007
Goal of the Funding Guideline ist to test and supportideas and new ways, that could help to organise and shape the demographic change in Saxony in a positveway
Broad variety of project partners: Municipalities, Associations, Clubs, etc.
Since 2007 over 100 projekts were funded ( 5,0 Mio. Euro)
Per year 20 Ppojects are implemented
DCRN
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel38
DCRN1.Demography-and innovation partnership of the cities of Colditz Geithain Kohren-Sahlis Rochlitz 2.Feasibility Study of a Citizens Bus Service in theRegionLommatzscher Pflege3.Health-Management in the social and educational sector Distric of North SaxonyLandkreis Nordsachsen 4.Social Signpost for the District Ore Montains5.Demographic action- and communication concept Ebersbach 2030 6.Future Chances im Town-Network Upper Lusatia-Lower Silesia7.Local Mobility Project Bahretal8.Kids-Shuttle Wittichenau 9.Innovative Sewerage Concept Espenhain Sewer and Water Board 10.Citizens Bus Erlbach 11.and many more
Selection of projects of the Funding Guideline Demography
20
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel39
DCRNSelection of projects of the Funding Guideline Demography
Municipality of Weisswasser Improved fire-fighting and fire-
prevention through intercommunalco-operation
TU Chemnitz (University of Technology)
Demographic change in the world of work/employment
TU Dresden (University of Technology)
Well supplied in the ruralareas
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel40
DCRN
21
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel4141
Objective is a location-independent virtual access to administration while guaranteeing a personal contact to administrative staff.
Target Groups:
Citizens and Companies in rural areas,
The elder generation and disabled persons.
The service contains:
Reception of Information related to administrative processes zu Verwaltungsvorgngen,
the mobile bzw. digital handling of administrative processes.
Timeline: Currently the mobile citizens services areimplemented succesively in several municipalities.
Creation and expansionof modern administration portals/gatewaysMobile citizens services
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel4242
Project development: The municipalities start the
implementation of the citizensterminal succesively dependingon how theyve progressed with theproject.
Specific technical functions: Authentication Videoconference Split screen mode Accepting applications Scan and Print Collection of charges/fees,
costs and expenses
Creation and expansionof modern administration portals/gatewaysMobile citizens services: Citizens terminal
22
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel4343
Possible bersions of the mobile citizens office are:
Mobile Citizens service (e. g. in a van),
Stationary citizens offices (e.g. in shopping malls, nursing homes etc.),
Home visits (with the citizens office in a trolley case).
Specific technical functions are:
Authentication, fingerprint reader for nPA
(new id),
Accepting applications,
Scan and print,
Collection of charges/fees, cost and expenses.
The pilot phase hase started in summer 2012.
Creation and expansionof modern administration portals/gatewaysMobile citizens services: Mobile Citizens Office
http://www.staatsmodernisierung.sachsen.de/295.html
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel44
DCRN
23
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel45
DCRNDemography Test Since 2011 all projects coming to the SaxonCabinet (Meeting of the Ministers) have to be checked
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel46
DCRN
www.demografie.sachsen.de
24
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel47
DCRNGerman Census 2011 Some results and effects for Saxony
4,06 Millionen Inhabitants on May, 9th 2011, 84.400 less htan the official figures of April ,30th (Change by -2,0%, Germany -1,9%)
Correction of the number of inhabitants of the municipalities belonging to a district: 376 municipalities wit a lower number of inhabitants, 57 with a higher number of inhabitants, 2 withoutcorrection
in 17 municipalities the attribution to the mucipal size class changes, 16 are going down one level For the most regulation is a protection of the status-quo until the end of hat elegislation periods
(Full-time Mayor, Payment of the Mayor, Number of town coucillors, Size of the town council) Effects on the fiscal equalisation scheme and the revenues of the Lnder (States) Adaptions in the financial situation/ funding of the minicipalities The corrections lead to no changes in the bases and the updating of the federal state development
plan, since they are not that significant Census 2011 central basis for the Actions of Politics and Administration
Census - Leipzig loses revenues
amounting to 19 Mio. Euro
Citiesprotesting
against resultsof the cencus
Becausethey fear lessfunding, 27
municipalitieshaving doubts
concerningthe new
populationdata
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel48
Demographic Change It happens
Regionale Bevlkerungs-vorausschtzungen, Bevlkerungs- vernderung, nach NUTS-2-Regionen, zwischen 2008 bis 2030
Source: EUROSTAT - Jahrbuch der Regionen 2010
DCRN
Regional Population Projection, Population Change, NUTS-2-Regions, between 2008 until 2030
25
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel49
Demographic Change It happens
DCRN"Demographic Risk Map" of the Rostock Research Center for the Study
of Demographic Change: Mapping the RDC Type, 2004-2030
I: Shrinking/lower growth, faster ageing
II: Shrinking/ lower growth, slower ageing
III: Higher growth, slower ageing
IV: Higher growth, faster ageing
Data Source: Eurostat and National Statistics Offices; own calculations.
EuroGeographics for the administrative boundaries
The RDC Index measures the extent of regional demographic changewithin a period.
http://www.demographic-risk-map.eu/demographic_change.aspx
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DCRNwww.dcrn.eu
DemographicChange RegionsNetwork
26
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel51
Activities of the network
The Fourth Demography Forum, 6 and 7 May 2013, Brussels
Presentation at a common stand
Providing high-level speakers to the european commission and presentation of the network and the regional activities of the member regions:
Marcus Frequin (Dutch ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Affairs)
Marianne Besselink (Reg Minister, Groningen)
Johannes Beermann (Staatsminister, Sachsen)
DCRN
| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel52
Want to become a part of DCRN?
Contact the DCRN for more information on the
future events and activities:
Homepage of DCRN network: www.dcrn.eu
E-mail: [email protected]
or contact
Andreas KhlSaxon State Ministry of Justice and for European
AffairsSaxony Liaison Office Brussels
T: +32 (0)2 235.87.31F: +32 (0)2 235.87.22
Demographic Change in Saxony:
www.demografie.sachsen.de
Demographic Change.