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Demographic Change and EU Regions
Professor Philip McCannUniversity of Groningen, The Netherlands
Special Adviser to Johannes HahnEuropean Commissioner for Regional Policy
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Globalisation changes the distribution of winners and losers in all dimensions, and particularly according to the region
• Demographic change – age and mobility • Mobility and ageing are both dynamic processes • Mobility and ageing are both dynamic processes
of social and demographic change• A complex story of winner and losers – which is
becoming even more complex• International convergence and interregional
divergence
$ $ BRXH BRZH BRYH BRYL BRXL BRZL BRXL BRZL A B X Y Z XH YH ZH XL YL ZL
Fig. 1 A Three City One-Dimensional Economic Geography
$ $ BRXH BRZH
A B X C Y D Z XH ZH Low Value Goods L
Fig. 2 Globalization, Localization and Economic Geography
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Access to the public services required to aid the ageing process depends on one’s place orstatus in society
• Educational status – earnings, wealth, access to • Educational status – earnings, wealth, access to both private and public care
• Social status – interpersonal networks, social capital
• Geographical status – local environment, quality and variety of local health care services
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Education about health services and healthy lifestyles is an independent predictor of long term health
• Poverty is clear indicator of poor health, • Poverty is clear indicator of poor health, irrespective of social status
• Poverty and education are correlated• Both poverty and education are correlated with
location• Social mobility and ageing are regional problems
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Ageing can be a positive or negative process and experience
• Leisure, recreation → high quality of life and longevitylongevity
• Poor housing, low socio-economic status environments → low quality of life and reduced longevity
• Spatial differentiation in terms of quality of life, access to services, life expectancy
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Impacts of globalisation: all societies are becoming more unequal in terms of income and wealth distribution
• All societies are becoming more unequal in • All societies are becoming more unequal in terms of the geography of wealth and income
• Rural-urban migration (CEECs; Mediterranean)• Urban-urban migration (northern and western
EU)• Urban-rural migration (high income groups)
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Individual geographical mobility is correlated with:- human capital and skills- gender- gender- previous migration- employment opportunities- amenities (natural or urban)- personal push and pull characteristics
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Group migration flows are correlated with:- the business cycle- the housing and real estate market- distances- distances- infrastructure- institutional variations- externality effects- public goods
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Outbound areas with ageing populations which also have declining populations and falling incomes
• Inbound areas with ageing populations which • Inbound areas with ageing populations which are increasing in wealth and incomes
• Inbound areas with populations which are becoming more relatively youthful and which are increasing in wealth and incomes
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Inbound areas which are becoming richer and also more spatially segregated between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’
• Outbound areas which are becoming poorer and also more spatially segregated between the also more spatially segregated between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’
• Social and industrial clustering effects – peer group effects
• Peer group effects plus increasing migration enhances social and spatial differences
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Greater disparities between social ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ or social ‘insiders’ and ‘outsiders’
• Greater differences in terms of people’s ability to change their circumstances change their circumstances
• Greater differences in terms of people’s ability to migrate or relocate for reasons of wellbeing and quality of life
• Greater differences in terms of a community’s or a locality’s ability to provide a viable livelihood –income, social capital and participation
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Regions 2020: Demographic Challenges for Europe’s Regions, November 2008, DGRegio- Migration + natural growth 2004-2020- Rate of population change 2004-2020- Rate of population change 2004-2020- Projected international migration 2020- Projected Interregional migration 2020- Healthy life expectancy 2005- Demographic vulnerability index 2020
EU-15 Yearly
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
PR IN PU
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU-15 2 yr MA
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
PR IN PU
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CEECs Yearly
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
PR IN PU
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CEECs 2 yr MA
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
PR IN PU
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EU 15:
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8
-.01 0 .01 .02 .03
IN PRG
DP
pc
grow
th
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8
-.01 0 .01 .02 .03
PU
GD
P p
c gr
owth
pop grGraphs by type of region (PU, IN, PR)
Population change in metro regions, 2000-2008
CZ
SILTAT
FI
4
8
12
16
Ch
ang
e in
sh
are
of
nat
ion
al p
op
ula
tio
n in
%
Capital metro region
Second tier metro region
Smaller metro region
Non-metro regions combined
IE
UKNLFRSK
DK
PLIT
RO
BE
PTEE
HU
ES
SILT
DE
BG
SE
MT
LVGR
-12
-8
-4
0
4
Ch
ang
e in
sh
are
of
nat
ion
al p
op
ula
tio
n in
%
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Public policy for social inclusion objectives- inclusive growth agenda of Europe 2020- management of ageing is a social issue- provision and access to health, social and education services- provision and access to health, social and education services- quality and availability of services
• Stakeholder society, governance, participation• Rights, responsibilities and expectations• Implicit social contract in European societies
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• The inclusive growth agenda of Europe2020 cannot be divorced from the smart growth and sustainable growth agendas of Europe2020
• Place-based cohesion policy – an integrated• Place-based cohesion policy – an integratedapproach is essential
• Typology of EU regions according to innovation features, environmental features, and demographic features
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Europe 2020 Dimensions: Integrated Regional Typologies
• Smart growth: OECD regional innovation classification
• Sustainable growth: natural environment and • Sustainable growth: natural environment and built environment classification (OECD regional typology + 1)
• Inclusive growth: demographic classification (ESPON DEMIFER)
Smart Growth Typology
Knowledge Region
Industrial Production Zone
Sustainable Growth Typology
Inclusive Growth Typology
Non S&T-driven Region
Urban-Coastal Region
Urban Region
Rural near Urban Region
Rural Region
Population Decline and
Outflows
Population Growth and Inflows
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• Regions 2020: Demographic Challenges for Europe’s Regions, November 2008, DGRegio
• Ageing in European Union: Where Exactly? Eurostat Statistics in Focus 26/2020
• Green paper “Confronting Demographic Change: A New • Green paper “Confronting Demographic Change: A New Solidarity Between the Generations”, Communication from The Commission, 16.3.2005
• Promoting Solidarity Between the Generations, Communication from The Commission, 10.5.2007
Demographic Change and EU Regions
• ESPON 2010, DEMIFER Demographic and Migratory Flows Affecting European Regions and Cities, Applied Research 2013/1/3, Final Report, ESPON 2013 Programme, ESPON Luxembourg
• Meeting Social Needs in an Ageing Society, Commission • Meeting Social Needs in an Ageing Society, Commission Staff Working Document SEC (2008) 2911 Demography Report 2008
• DGRegio, 2010, Panorama Inforegio 35, “Towards Greater Social Inclusion: Regional Policy’s Contribution”, European Commission, Directorate-General for Regional Policy, Brussels, Autumn 2010, ISSN: 1608-389X