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Democratization and democratic survival
Political Economy of the Global SouthProf. Tyson Roberts
Questions
• Why do some countries democratize and others remain dictatorships?
• Why do some democracies survive and others fail/revert to dictatorship?
Lipset (1959)
• Empirical pattern:– More developed countries are more likely to be
democratic than the less developed• Argument:– Economic development => social development
(education, industrialization, middle class, etc.) => stable democracy
Correlation is not causation
Does high income level help countries become democracies? …
Source: PWT & Polity IV via QoG; Year: 2007
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Or does democracy help countries achieve high income levels?
We will address effects of democracy next lecture
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Income level appears to have little/no effect on democratization post WW2(However, wealthier nations were more likely to democratize pre-1925)
Source: Boix & Stokes 2003
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Democracy is less likely to survive in poor countries than in wealthy ones (in any era)
Source: Boix & Stokes 2003
Models of democratization as strategic interactions between elites and citizens
• Rich Rulers vs. Poor Ruled– Boix (2003), Acemoglu & Robinson (2001), etc.– Taxes redistribute from poor to rich in democracies– May be more relevant for economic elite-based regimes,
e.g., Bolivia • Revenue maximizing rulers versus politically powerless
citizens– North and Weingast (1989), Olson (1993), etc. – May be more relevant for state-based elite regimes, e.g.,
Zaire– Taxes redistribute from ruled to rulers in dictatorships
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Rich/Minority group
Repress Don’t Repress
Poor/Majority group
Revolt Acquiesce
WAR
Poor win Rich win
Democratic Redistribution, including mass education, etc.
DictatorshipNo redistributionCost of repression for rich
RevolutionPoor expropriate fixed assetsMobile assets fleeCost of war for all
DictatorshipNo redistributionRich take assets from poorCost of war for all
Boix (2003): Rich rulers allow for democracy to avoid expropriating revolution
Stable democracy is least likely when inequality is high (demand for redistribution) and economic assets are
immobile (wealth cannot exit)
How democratization has changed
• Market economy vs. state ownership and regulation– Countries ruled by economic elites are often market-
based (e.g., in Latin America)– Post-Cold War, most authoritarian regimes used state
intervention/ownership in economy• International influences– Trade, investment, and aid can affect democratization– During Cold War, Super Powers were willing to support
dictatorships
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High income level increases probability of democratization if the economy is neither centrally controlled nor oil-dependent
Source: Boix & Stokes 2003
• Characteristics of the regime– Military dictatorships prefer negotiated
democratization to revolution or war– Personalist leaders have most to lose from
democratization, less willing to democratize than military or party-based dictatorships
– Monarchies that share power with the family are more durable than monarchies with concentrated power
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Post-Cold War
• At end of Cold War, income level had less effect on probability of democratization
• Countries in economic crisis often democratize, unless oil-rich
• Oil-rich countries often held multi-party elections but these often were not free & fair
• Foreign aid from the West had no effect on democracy level during Cold War, but had positive effect after CW in Africa (Dunning 2004)
• But the War on Terror brings back some CW-style geopolitics…
The Economist: “Crying for Freedom” (2010)
• Number of electoral democracies down to lowest number since 1995
• Multiparty elections without quality institutions (e.g., rule of law) can create problems
• Some argue that economic growth under democratization should preceed democratization– For example, China & Singapore have grown dramatically
without democratizing– Other dictatorships seek to emulate
• More on democracy and growth next class…