Demaria Etal 2012 JHydrometeorology Revised EdM

8/13/2019 Demaria Etal 2012 JHydrometeorology Revised EdM

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Using a gridded global data set to characterize regional hydroclimate in central Chile

E.M.C. Demaria1, E.P. Maurer2*, J. Sheffield3, E. Bustos1, D. Poblete1, S. Vicua1, !. Me"a1

1Ce#tro $#terdisci%li#ario de Cambio &lobal, Po#tificia '#i(ersidad Cat)lica de Chile, Sa#tiao,

Chile

2Ci(il E#i#eeri# De%artme#t, Sa#ta Clara '#i(ersit+, Sa#ta Clara, C, 'S

3De%artme#t of Ci(il a#d E#(iro#me#tal E#i#eeri#, Pri#ceto# '#i(ersit+, Pri#ceto#, -J, 'S

*Corres%o#di# author, emaurere#r.scu.edu, /0/214.

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Abstract

Ce#tral Chile is faci# dramatic %ro7ectio#s of climate cha#e, 8ith a co#se#sus for decli#i#

%reci%itatio#, #eati(el+ affecti# h+dro%o8er e#eratio# a#d irriated ariculture. 9isi# from

sea le(el to 5,000 meters 8ithi# a dista#ce of 200 :ilometers, %reci%itatio# characteri"atio# is

difficult due to a lac: of lo#term obser(atio#s, es%eciall+ at hiher ele(atio#s. !or

u#dersta#di# curre#t mea# a#d e;treme co#ditio#s a#d rece#t h+droclimatoloical cha#e, as

8ell as to %ro(ide a baseli#e for do8#scali# climate model %ro7ectio#s, a tem%orall+ a#d

s%atiall+ com%lete data set of dail+ meteorolo+ is esse#tial.


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1. Introduction

uisite to reio#al h+droclimatoloical a#al+ses is a com%rehe#si(e, multidecadal,

s%atiall+ a#d tem%orall+ com%lete data set of obser(ed meteorolo+, 8hether for historic

simulatio#s or as a baseli#e for do8#scali# future climate %ro7ectio#s. $# res%o#se to this #eed,

data sets of dail+ ridded meteoroloical obser(atio#s ha(e bee# e#erated, both o(er

co#ti#e#tal reio#s @e..,Cosgrove et al., 2003AMaurer et al., 2002 a#d loball+ [Adam and

Lettenmaier, 2003ASheffield et al., 2005. ?hese ha(e be#efited from 8or: at coarser time scales

[Chen et al., 2002ADaly et al., 166/AMithell and !ones, 200ANew et al., 2000AWillmott and

Matsuura, 2001, 8ith ma#+ %roducts combi#i# multi%le sources, such as statio# obser(atio#s,

remotel+ se#sed imaes, a#d model rea#al+ses.

uate to re%rese#t

com%le; to%ora%h+, or 8here the ridded s%atial resolutio# is too lare for the reio# bei#

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studied. Ce#tral Chile is a# es%eciall+ challe#i# e#(iro#me#t for characteri"i# climate a#d

h+drolo+ si#ce the terrai# e;hibits dramatic ele(atio# cha#es o(er short dista#ces, a#d the

orora%hic effects %roduce hih s%atial heteroe#eit+ i# %reci%itatio#. $# e#eral, the obser(atio#

statio# de#sit+ i# South merica is i#ade>uate for lo#term h+droclimate characteri"atio# [de

"onalves et al., 2005.


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9esults of the ad7usted data set (alidatio# a#d model simulatio#s are discussed i# Sectio# /.

!i#all+, the mai# co#clusio#s of the stud+ are %rese#ted i# Sectio# .

2. Region

?he focus area of this stud+ is the reio# i# ce#tral Chile, e#com%assi# the four ma7or ri(er

basi#s from #orth to south, the 9a%el, Mata>uito, Maule, a#d $tata 9i(ers bet8ee# latitudes

3.2F S a#d 34.F S !iure 1. ?he climate is Mediterra#ea#, 8ith 0G of the %reci%itatio#

falli# i# the rai#+ seaso# from Ma+uust [$alvey and "arreaud, 2004, %ea:i# duri# Ju#e.

?he terrai# is dramatic, risi# a%%ro;imatel+ 5000 meters 8ithi# a hori"o#tal dista#ce of

a%%ro;imatel+ 200 :m, %roduci# shar% radie#ts i# climate [$alvey and "arreaud, 2006.

Mea# %reci%itatio# is a%%ro;imatel+ 00 mm %er +ear at the -orth e#d of the stud+ domai#, a#d

as much as 3000 mm %er +ear i# the hih ele(atio#s at the Souther# e#d of the domai#. lthouh

climate i#formatio# i# the (alle+ or mou#tai# foothills is 8ell re%rese#ted b+ meteoroloical

statio#s it is e(ide#t from !iure 1 that the hih ele(atio# areas are u#derre%rese#ted b+ a#+ of

the obser(atio# statio#s.

=ur stud+ reio# i# Ce#tral Chile is es%eciall+ im%orta#t from a h+droclimatoloical sta#d%oi#t,

as it co#tai#s more tha# 4G of the Cou#tr+Hs total irriated ariculture

@888.ce#soaro%ecuario.clIi#de;2.html a#d the ma7orit+ of the reser(oir storae i# the cou#tr+,

a#d %ro(ides 8ater su%%l+ for some of Chiles larest cities. cha#i# climate is e(ide#t i#

rece#t h+droclimate records [%u#io&'lvare( and M)hee, 2010, a#d future climate %ro7ectio#s

for the reio# i#dicate the %ote#tial for (er+ lare im%acts [*radley et al., 2005. Vicua et al.

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@2011 sho8 the (ul#erabilit+ of Ce#tral Chile to %ro7ected climate cha#e is hih, 8ith robust

dr+i# tre#ds i# &e#eral Circulatio# Model &CM %ro7ectio#s, a#d a hih se#siti(it+ to

cha#i# s#o8 melt %atter#s, a#d also discuss the challe#es i# characteri"i# climate i# a

Chilea# catchme#t 8ith fe8 %reci%itatio# obser(atio#s, a#d #o#e at hih ele(atio#s.

3. Methods and data

3.1 Gridded data set develoment


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[uffman et al., 2001 a#d the lobal forci# dataset of -i7sse# et al. @2001a. ?o e#sure lare

scale corres%o#de#ce bet8ee# this data set a#d the C9' mo#thl+ data set, %reci%itatio# is scaled

so the mo#thl+ totals match the C9' mo#thl+ (alues at the C9' s%atial scale. Ma;imum a#d

mi#imum tem%eratures are also scaled to match the C9' time series, usi# C9' mo#thl+ mea#

tem%erature a#d diur#al tem%erature ra#e.


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ue#c+ oscillatio#s duri# the climatoloical %eriod. ?he

mo#thl+ a(erae %reci%itatio# for the selected D& statio#s 8as i#ter%olated o#to the same

0.2F rid usi# co:rii#, 8ith ele(atio# bei# the co(ariate. ?his method of co:rii# has bee#

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sho8# to im%ro(e :rii# i#ter%olatio# to i#clude orora%hic effects i#duced b+ com%le; terrai#

[Diodato and Cearelli, 200Aevesi et al., 1662.

?his %rocess %roduced t8el(e mo#thl+ mea# %reci%itatio# ma%s for the reio#. ?he same 163

2004 %eriod 8as e;tracted from the dail+ ridded data set, a#d mo#thl+ a(erae (alues 8ere

calculated for each rid cell. 9atios t8el(e, o#e for each mo#th of obser(ed climatolo+

di(ided b+ the ridded data set a(erae 8ere the# calculated for each rid cell. Dail+ (alues i#

the ridded data set 8ere ad7usted to create a #e8 set of dail+ %reci%itatio# data, P ad7, 8hich

matches the i#ter%olated obser(atio#s %roduced 8ith co:rii#, usi# a sim%le ratio

Padj i,j,t( )=Pgridi,j,t( )Pobs,moni,j(

Pgrid,moni,j(1

8here Prid is the orii#al dail+ ridded 0.2F data at locatio# i,j, Pobs is the i#ter%olated

obser(ed climatolo+, o(erbars i#dicate the 1632004 mea#, a#d the subscri%t monN i#dicates

the mo#th from the climatolo+ i# 8hich da+ tfalls.

?his same method 8as a%%lied to a lobal dataset of dail+ meteorolo+ i# a data s%arse reio# i#

Ce#tral merica, resulti# i# im%ro(ed characteri"atio# of %reci%itatio# a#d la#d surface

h+drolo+ [Maurer et al., 2006. $# additio#, this #e8 ad7usted data set i#cludes the full 16/

200 %eriod, des%ite the fact that local obser(atio#s are (er+ s%arse before 160.

?o (alidate the ad7usted %reci%itatio# data set, 8e com%uted a set of statistical %arameters 8idel+

used to describe climate e;tremes [dos Santos et al., 2011A-hang and .an, 200/. dditio#all+

to e(aluate the tem%oral characteristics of rai#fall e(e#ts 8e com%uted the %robabilit+ of

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occurre#ce of 8et a#d dr+ da+s, a#d the tra#sitio# %robabilities bet8ee# 8et a#d dr+ states

[Wilks and Wil#+, 1666. ?able 1 sho8s a descri%tio# of the statistics used.

?o e(aluate if the ad7usted %reci%itatio# data set ca%tures the orora%hic radie#t of %reci%itatio#

8e com%ared model simulated S#o8 ui(ale#t S


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3.2 !ydrologic Model "imulations

?o assess the abilit+ of the dail+ ridded meteorolo+ de(elo%ed i# this stud+ to ca%ture dail+

climate features across the 8atersheds, 8e simulate the h+drolo+ of ri(er basi#s i# the reio# to

obtai# streamflo8 a#d s#o8 co(er estimates. ?he h+droloic model used is the Variable

$#filtratio# Ca%acit+ V$C model [Cherkauer et al., 2003ALiang et al., 166/. ?he V$C model is

a distributed, %h+sicall+based h+droloic model that bala#ces both surface e#er+ a#d 8ater

budets o(er a rid mesh. ?he V$C model uses a mosaicN scheme that allo8s a statistical

re%rese#tatio# of the subrid s%atial (ariabilit+ i# to%ora%h+, i#filtratio# a#d (eetatio#Ila#d

co(er, a# im%orta#t attribute 8he# simulati# h+drolo+ i# heteroe#eous terrai#. ?he resulti#

ru#off at each rid cell is routed throuh a defi#ed ri(er s+stem usi# the alorithm de(elo%ed b+

Lohma## et al. @1665. ?he V$C model has bee# successfull+ a%%lied i# ma#+ setti#s, from

lobal to ri(er basi# scale @e..,Maurer et al., 2002ANijssen et al., 2001bASheffield and Wood,

2004.

!or this stud+, the model 8as ru# at a dail+ time ste% at a 0.2F resolutio# a%%ro;imatel+ 530

:m2%er rid cell for the stud+ reio#. Ele(atio# data for the basi# routi# 8ere based o# the 1

arcseco#d O+drosheds dataset [Lehner et al., 2005, deri(ed from the Shuttle 9adar ?o%ora%h+

Missio# S9?M at 3 arcseco#d resolutio#. La#d co(er a#d soil h+draulic %ro%erties 8ere based

o# (alues from Sheffield a#d ue outli#ed b+ =HDo##ell et al. @1666.

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#. Results and $iscussion

?he ad7usted data set 8as (alidated i# se(eral 8a+s. !irst, ad7usted dail+ %reci%itatio# fields 8ere

cross(alidated i# four locatio#s. Seco#d, the fi#al dataset 8as %re%ared a#d dail+ statistics 8ere

com%ared bet8ee# the lobal dail+ data set a#d local obser(atio#s. ?hird, h+droloic simulatio#

out%uts 8ere com%ared to obser(atio#s to i#(estiate the %lausibilit+ of usi# the #e8 data set as

a# obser(atio#al baseli#e for stud+i# climate im%acts o# h+drolo+.

#.1 Gridded meteorological data cross%validation

Prior to usi# the ad7usted %reci%itatio# fields for h+droloic simulatio#s 8e %erformed a cross

(alidatio# of the ridded %reci%itatio# for the mo#ths of Ma+, Ju#e, Jul+, a#d uust at four

locatio#s across the basi#s. !iure / sho8s the eora%hic locatio# of the (alidatio# sites a#d

?able 2 sho8s the eora%hic coordi#ates of the 0.2 deree rid cells used i# the com%ariso#.

!or each rid %oi#t 0.2rid cell ce#ter, the three #earest %reci%itatio# obser(atio# statio#s,

located i# a# a%%ro;imate 0 :m diameter circle surrou#di# the rid cell ce#ter, 8ere selected

for (alidatio#. Selected statio#s 8ere located, 8he# %ossible, #ot more tha# 0G hiher

ma;imum ele(atio# differe#ce 8as 10 meters e;ce%t at Loc3 8here it 8as 00 meters or

lo8er tha# that of the 0.2F rid cell. !or each mo#th a#d for each of the four locatio#s i.e.,

Loc1, Loc2, Loc3, a#d Loc/ the three %reci%itatio# aue statio#s surrou#di# the rid cell

8ere e;cluded from the co:rii# i#ter%olatio# %rocess, 8hich %roduced four sets o#e for each

site of four ma%s o#e for each mo#th from Ma+uust of climatoloical %reci%itatio# at 0.2F

s%atial resolutio#. Dail+ ridded ad7usted %reci%itatio# (alues at each locatio# 8ere the# obtai#ed

b+ a%%l+i# E>uatio# 1.

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scatter %lot bet8ee# obser(ed a#d i#ter%olated a(erae 1632004 mo#thl+ %reci%itatio# for

Ma+uust the rai#+ seaso#, at each locatio# is sho8# i# !iure . -ote that the three rai#

aues surrou#di# each locatio# 8ere e;cluded from the i#ter%olatio# %rocess %roduci# the

dail+ ridded data at that locatio#. $#ter%olated mo#thl+ totals u#derestimate obser(atio#s b+

14.G mostl+ as a result of stro# u#derestimatio# of rai#fall totals i# Loc 3. ?he relati(e 9MSE

is 0.4G i#dicati# a ood areeme#t bet8ee# obser(ed simulated fields. ual to

0.G. $t is 8orth #oti# that Loc3 is situated i# a reio# 8ith e;tremel+ com%le; %reci%itatio#

radie#ts due to orora%hic e#ha#ceme#t at the foothills of the #des Mou#tai#s, a#d b+

e;cludi# the three aues #earest to the rid cell ce#ter, the closest remai#i# %reci%itatio#

obser(atio#s are at a dista#ce of hu#dreds of :ilometers, lea(i# that area esse#tiall+

u#re%rese#ted b+ obser(atio#s. ?hus, it is #ot sur%risi# that 8ith #o obser(atio#al u#der%i##i#,

ca%turi# com%le; features i# s%atial %reci%itatio# %atter#s is difficult.

&i(e# the risi# i#terest i# characteri"i# e;treme e(e#ts i# the co#te;t of a cha#i# climate

[/)CC, 2011, the abilit+ of the ad7usted dail+ ridded dataset to characteri"e e;treme statistics is

im%orta#t. ?he s:ill of the ad7usted dail+ data sets for the cross(alidatio# e;ercise at ca%turi#

rai#fall e;tremes 8as assessed for the same four locatio#s. ue#tl+ used to describe climate e;tremes, usi# the 9ClimDe; soft8are [-hang

and .an, 200/A-hang et al., 200. $# this case, the statistics 8ere com%uted at the dail+ le(el

at each rid cell for the orii#al ridded data set '#dd7, the ad7usted data set d7, a#d the

obser(atio#s =bs. !iure 5 i#dicates that the mo#thl+ rescali# im%ro(es the re%rese#tatio# of

i#te#se rai#fall e(e#ts 96%, the a##ual total %reci%itatio# P9C?=?, a#d the %reci%itatio#

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i#te#sit+ SD$$ i# three of the four locatio#s. ?he #umber of da+s 8ith %reci%itatio# o(er 20 mm

920mm also sho8s a# im%ro(eme#t due to the ad7ustme#t i# three locatio#s. ?he statistical

%arameter li#:ed to the le#th of 8et s%ells C


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#.2 Gridded meteorological data develoment

!ollo8i# the cross(alidatio#, the same methodolo+ 8as a%%lied to all t8el(e mo#ths usi# all

of the /0 rai# aues selected usi# the criteria outli#ed i# Sectio# 3.1. $# other 8ords, for the

fi#al ridded %reci%itatio# %roduct, #o %reci%itatio# statio#s 8ere e;cluded. !iure 4 sho8s the

ad7usted ridded a##ual %reci%itatio# fields a#d their de%arture from the obser(ed data set for the

%eriod 1602005. $# !iure 4, for each 0.2 deree rid cell, ad7usted a##ual %reci%itatio# 8as

subtracted from obser(ed %reci%itatio#. $t is e(ide#t that i# the more humid souther#

mou#tai#ous %ortio# of the stud+ area there has bee# a mar:ed i#crease i# %reci%itatio# 8ith the

ad7ustme#t, i#cor%orati# the more detailed i#formatio# embedded i# the rai# aue

obser(atio#s. -eati(e differe#ces bet8ee# orii#al a#d ad7usted ridded %reci%itatio# i#dicate

the e;iste#ce of a ba#d alo# the #des 8here a##ual %reci%itatio# is reater i# the ad7usted

%reci%itatio# data set com%ared to the u#ad7usted ridded data !iure 4b.

?o com%are ho8 the ad7usted dail+ %reci%itatio# relates to obser(atio#s, 8e com%ared dail+

rai#fall statistics at the same four locatio#s used i# the cross(alidatio# ste%, a#d com%are these

locatio#s 8ith the same three surrou#di# obser(atio# statio#s as abo(e. ?able / summari"es the

basic statistics, bias, 9MSE a#d correlatio# coefficie#t for dail+ obser(ed =BS a#d dail+

ad7usted ridded %reci%itatio# DJ for ustral summer DJ! a#d ustral 8i#ter JJ for the

%eriod 1632004. ?he bias is defi#ed as the sum of the differe#ces bet8ee# DJ a#d =BS, a#d

the 9MSE is e>ual to the root mea# s>uared error bet8ee# dail+ DJ a#d =BS %reci%itatio#

(alues. Si#ce #o obser(atio# statio#s 8ere e;cluded i# de(elo%i# this fi#al ridded data set, a#d

the ad7ustme#t %rocess scales dail+ data to match mo#thl+ climatoloical mea#s, lo#term mea#

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(alues i# the ridded data set are e;%ected to be close bet8ee# obser(atio#s. ?here is, ho8e(er,

#o dail+ i#formatio# from the obser(atio#s i#cluded i# the ridded data set. ?hus, as e;%ected,

i# ?able / mea# dail+ (alues are (er+ close for the obser(ed a#d ad7usted datasets for both

seaso#s. ?he (ariabilit+ of dail+ %reci%itatio# 8ithi# each seaso#, re%rese#ted b+ the sta#dard

de(iatio#, also com%ares relati(el+ 8ell, thouh the ad7usted ridded data sho8 reater

(ariabilit+ tha# the obser(atio#s duri# the rai#+ 8i#ter seaso#. hih 9MSE a#d lo8

correlatio# (alues i#dicate that tem%oral se>ue#ci# differs bet8ee# the t8o data sets. ?his is #ot

u#e;%ected, si#ce the dail+ %reci%itatio# i# the orii#al 0.2F ridded data 8as deri(ed from

rea#al+sis, a#d as such it is a model out%ut [+alnay et al., 1665, ad7usted as discussed i# Sectio#

3.1 abo(e, 8hich does #ot i#cor%orate statio# obser(atio#s from the surrou#di# statio#s used i#

the com%ariso#s i# this stud+.


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#oted abo(e. E;treme %reci%itatio# e(e#ts 966% a#d 96% a#d ma;imum 1da+ %reci%itatio#

91da+ ha(e statisticall+ i#disti#uishable mea#s for all four locatio#s. Preci%itatio# i#te#sit+

SD$$ also sho8s ood areeme#t at the four locatio#s, 8ith statisticall+ e>ual mea#s for

obser(atio#s a#d ad7usted ridded data for three of the four locatio#s. Co#(ersel+ the %arameters,

9mm 920mm, albeit stro#l+ correlated, 8ere fou#d to ha(e statisticall+ differe#t mea# (alues.

?his %he#ome#o# of a ridded %reci%itatio# data set ha(i# lo8er e;treme %reci%itatio# (alues

tha# statio# obser(atio#s 8as also #oted i# the South merica# stud+ of Sil(a et al. @2004 a#d is

co#siste#t 8ith the effect of s%atial a(erai#, i.e., com%ari# the a(erae of a 530 :m 2 0.2F

rid cell to the smaller, more discrete area re%rese#ted b+ the three a(eraed statio#s [.evjevih,

1642. ?he statistics related to duratio# of 8et a#d dr+ s%ells sho8ed statisticall+ differe#t

%o%ulatio# mea#s at all / locatio#s. ?he ma;imum co#secuti(e #umber of dr+ da+s CDD a#d

8et da+s C


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!i#all+, the results i# ?able , for the fi#al ridded %roduct ca# be see# to be #earl+ ide#tical to

those i# ?able 3 for the cross(alidatio#. ?his demo#strates that the dail+ statistics of the

ridded %roduct are #ot deri(i# their (alues from the statio#s surrou#di# i#di(idual rid cells,

si#ce the statistics at each locatio# are #ot %articularl+ se#siti(e to the e;clusio# of #earb+

statio#s. 9ather, the im%ro(eme#ts i# e;treme statistics are reali"ed due to im%ro(ed larescale

%reci%itatio# characteri"atio# i#cor%orati# ele(atio# data to correct biases i# s%atial distributio#

of %reci%itatio# fields.

#.3 !ydrologic Model &alidation o' Ad(usted Meteorology

?o assess the re%rese#tatio# i# the #e8 meteoroloical data set of basi#8ide a#d hih ele(atio#

areas, the ad7usted ridded data de(elo%ed a#d assessed i# the %re(ious sectio#s 8ere the# used

to dri(e the V$C h+droloic model. Si#ce the %reci%itatio# 8as sho8# to be com%arable to

obser(atio#s 8here a(ailable i# ma#+ im%orta#t res%ects, a#other (alidatio# of the dri(i#

meteorolo+ 8ould be the successful simulatio# of obser(ed streamflo8 a#d s#o8 co(er.

9ecords of obser(ed streamflo8 i# the reio# te#d to be i#com%lete or for short %eriods, a#d

si#ce most of the ri(ers are affected b+ reser(oirs a#d di(ersio#s the flo8s ofte# do #ot reflect

#atural streamflo8 as simulated b+ the V$C model. !or this %ro7ect, 8e focused o# three sites,

sho8# i# !iure 1, 8hich ha(e more com%lete records a#d 8ere 7uded to be relati(el+ free of

a#thro%oe#ic i#flue#ces.

!or the site o# the Mata>uito 9i(er, the V$C model 8as calibrated to mo#thl+ stream flo8s for

the %eriod 16601666 usi# the Multi=b7ecti(e Com%le; E(olutio# M=C=M' alorithm

[.a0o et al., 166. ?he three o%timi"atio# criteria used i# this stud+ 8ere the -ashSutcliff

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model efficie#c+ @-SE,Nash and Sutliffe, 1640 usi# both flo8 -SE a#d the loarithm of

flo8 -SElo, a#d the bias, e;%ressed as a %erce#t of obser(ed mea# flo8. ?his %ro(ides a

bala#ce bet8ee# criteria that %e#ali"e errors at hih flo8s a#d others that are less se#siti(e to a

small #umber of lare errors at hih flo8s [Lettenmaier and Wood, 1663. ?he M=C=M'

method does #ot re>uire a# a %riori sub7ecti(e 8eihti# to the multi%le o%timi"atio# criteria, but

e(ol(es to8ard a set of #o#domi#ated Pareto solutio#s. B+ defi#itio#, for a set of ob7ecti(es,

t8o solutio#s 8ill #ot domi#ate o#e a#other if the+ ha(e the %ro%ert+ that mo(i# from o#e

solutio# to a#other results i# the im%ro(eme#t of o#e ob7ecti(e 8hile causi# deterioratio# i# o#e

or more others, usi#, i# the case of M=C=M', ra#:based assessme#ts of ob7ecti(es ["u0taet al., 1666A1rugt et al., 2003. !iure sho8s the V$C simulatio# results for the calibratio#

%eriod a#d for the (alidatio# %eriod of 20002004. ?he flo8s for both %eriods e#erall+ meet the

criteria for satisfactor+N calibratio# based o# the criteria of Moriasi et al. @2004, 8ith a -SE T

0.0 a#d absolute bias U 2G. uito basi# to the e#tire domai# a#d used the V$C model to

e#erate streamflo8 at the other t8o ae sites. ?his a(oids the %ossibilit+ of allo8i# e;te#si(e

calibratio# to hide meteoroloical data deficie#cies. ?he simulated flo8s for the %eriod 2000

2004 for each site, a#d the associated statistics, are i# !iures 6 a#d 10. ?he simulated flo8s o#

a(erae sho8 little bias i# both locatio#s. ?he Claro 9i(er -SElo (alue is lo8, reflecti# the

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u#derestimatio# of lo8 flo8s a#d o(erestimatio# of %ea: flo8s duri# the simulatio# %eriod,

thouh the hiher -SE (alue suests the errors at the hih flo8s are #ot as s+stematic. ?he

Lo#comilla 9i(er dis%la+s a e#eral o(erestimatio# b+ V$C of lo8 flo8s, thouh both -SE a#d

-SElo are abo(e the satisfactor+N threshold. ual 8ith the

e;ce%tio# of the 9io Claro 3da+ %ea: flo8. Lo8 flo8s are o(er a#d u#derestimated b+ V$C

simulatio#s but o#l+ the Lo#comilla 9i(er has mea#s that are statisticall+ differe#t !iure 11d.

9eco#i"i# the hih de%e#de#ce of this reio# o# s#o8 melt a#d thus the im%orta#ce of this

%rocess bei# 8ell re%rese#ted, 8e (alidate the hih ele(atio# meteorolo+ of the #e8 data set

b+ com%ari# V$C simulated S


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2002 a#d 2004 o#e imae %er +ear. ?he satellite imaes 8ere selected to ca%ture the s#o8

co(er i# mid to late uust i# each +ear, a%%ro;imati# the ma;imum s#o8 accumulatio# i# the

reio#. !ollo8i# Maurer et al. @2003 a s#o8 de%th of 2./ mm 1 i#ch 8as used as threshold

to i#dicate the %rese#ce of s#o8 o# the rou#d. M=D$S s#o8 co(erae 8as i#ter%olated to a

0.2F rid usi# tria#lebased cubic i#ter%olatio#. V$C simulated Sue#cies of s#o8I#o s#o8 i# M=D$S a#d V$C

simulated Suite lo8, o# the order of 5G i#dicati# a# e;celle#t

areeme#t bet8ee# both data sources. ?he Oeid:e S:ill Score for this data is 0.42, sho8i# that

the areeme#t bet8ee# obser(ed a#d V$C simulated s#o8 co(er is u#li:el+ to be due to cha#ce.

!i#all+, the successful (alidatio# of the streamflo8 a#d simulated s#o8 co(er 8ith obser(atio#s

also im%licitl+ su%%orts the ridded tem%eratures i# the data set. 9easo#able e#d of seaso# s#o8

e;te#t a#d 8ell simulated timi# of flo8s i# s#o8domi#ated streams i#dicates that the

tem%eratures are #ot li:el+ to be reatl+ i# error.

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). Conclusions

$# this stud+a# ad7usted ridded dail+ %reci%itatio# data set is de(elo%ed for Ce#tral Chile for

the %eriod 16/200. 9ai# aue data are used to correct the i#accuracies i# the re%rese#tatio#

of orora%hic distributio# of %reci%itatio# e;iste#t i# the a(ailable lobal ridded data set.

d7usted ridded data are (alidated usi# statio# obser(atio#s a#d h+droloical model

simulatio#s.

$# datas%arse reio#s, a sim%le co:rii# method that i#cor%orates to%ora%hic ele(atio# as

co(ariate ca# be successfull+ used to im%ro(e the s%atial re%rese#tatio# of ridded %reci%itatio#

i# areas 8ith com%le; terrai#. mo#thtomo#th ad7ustme#t ca# effecti(el+ remo(e biases i#

%reci%itatio# (alues haili# from fe8 or #o#e;iste#t rai# aue obser(atio#s. ?he im%ro(eme#ts

i# e;treme dail+ %reci%itatio# statistics are deri(ed from the im%ro(ed larescale

characteri"atio# of %reci%itatio# a#d its ele(atio# de%e#de#ceA e;cludi# i#di(idual obser(atio#

statio#s had mi#or effects o# the e;treme %reci%itatio# statistics at #earb+ rid cells.

?he ad7usted ridded %reci%itatio# is able to ca%ture %reci%itatio# e#ha#ceme#t due to orora%h+

i# the reio# 8ith a ood re%rese#tatio# of a##ual totals a#d %reci%itatio# i#te#sit+. Oo8e(er the

duratio# of storm e(e#ts is slihtl+ shorter tha# obser(ed %erha%s as a result of com%ari# a 530

:m2rid cell to the smaller, more discrete, areal %reci%itatio# re%rese#ted b+ three a(eraed rai#

aues. ?he statistics of e;treme %reci%itatio# e(e#ts are 8ell ca%tured b+ the ad7usted ridded

data set, 8hich e#couraes its use for climate cha#e a%%licatio#s.

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Streamflo8 simulatio#s i# three basi#s realisticall+ ca%ture hih a#d lo8 flo8s statistical

%ro%erties i#dicati# that the dri(i# meteorolo+ i# the ad7usted ridded data set is 8ell

re%rese#ted. Simulated Sualit+ of the ad7usted data set 8ill be co#strai#ed b+ the de#sit+ of the local obser(atio#

#et8or:.

Ac*no+ledgements

?his stud+ 8as fu#ded b+ C=9!=$--=V ra#t 200640/ to the Ce#tro $#terdisci%li#ario de

Cambio &lobal at the Po#tificia '#i(ersidad Cat)lica de Chile. !ulbriht Visiti# Scholars

&ra#t also %ro(ided %artial su%%ort to the seco#d author. ?he authors are rateful to Paul

-ie#aber a#d Mar:us Sch#orbus of the Pacific Climate $m%acts Co#sortium, '#i(ersit+ of

Victoria, BC, Ca#ada, a#d atri#a Be##ett at the '. of las:a, !airba#:s, for %ro(idi# u%dated

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Re'erences

Adam, J. C., and D. P. Lettenmaier (2003), Adjutment !" #$!%a$ #ridded &re'i&itati!n "!rtemati' %ia,J. Geophys Res., 108(D9), 114.*rad$e, +. ., -. ui$$e, /. . Dia, and . er#ara (2006), reat t! ater u&&$ie in ter!&i'a$ Ande, Science, 312(5781), 17551756.Cen, -., P. ie, J. . Jan!ia, and P. A. Arin (2002), $!%a$ Land Pre'i&itati!n: A 50r-!nt$ Ana$i *aed !n au#e ;%er

06

101112131/11514116202122232/2

2524226303132333/33534

336/0/1/2/3////5/4//6

0123/54

/6

0


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>uai$!%a$, -u$tiear, C!m%ineden!r Pre'i&itati!n timate at ine 'a$e, J.Hydrometeorology, 8(1), 3855.@PCC (2011), &ntergo)ernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on #anaging theRis*s o! $+treme $)ents and ,isasters to "d)ance Climate Change "daptation( Smmary !orPolicyma*ers, Cam%rid#e ni


27/47

;MD!nne$$, ., *. ?ijen, and D. P. Lettenmaier (1999), A im&$e a$#!ritm "!r #eneratin#tream"$! net!r "!r #rid%aed, ma'r!'a$e dr!$!#i'a$ m!de$, Hydrol. Processes, 13(8),12691275.Peter!n, . C., +. !e, +. 'm!er, and . +au


28/47

,able 1 % -ist o' statistical uantities and descritions.

/ame $escrition

96% ##ual total %reci%itatio# 8he# rai#fall T 6th %erce#tile

966% ##ual total %reci%itatio# 8he# rai#fall T 66th %erce#tile

P9CP?=? ##ual total %reci%itatio# i# 8et da+s 8ith dail+ rai#fall, 99 TR1mm

C


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,able 2 % -ocation o' ad(usted gridded reciitation grid cells used in daily reciitation validation.

0.2) Grid Cell Abbreviation Grid Cell Center -atitude Grid Cell Center -ongitude

Loc1 3/.34 40.4

Loc2 3/.4 41.12

Loc3 3.4 41.12

Loc/ 35.12 41.52

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,able # % or the 'inal ad(usted gridded roduct daily reciitation statistics 'or summer 5$8 and +inter

5A8 eriods 19@3%200?. ;4" are observations A$ are ad(usted gridded meteorology.

"ummer 5$8 "tatistics

=BS Mea#

mm

DJ Mea#

mm

=BS Std

mm

DJ Std

mm

Mea# Bias

mm

9MSE

mm

Correlatio#

Loc1 0.0 0.0 1.21 0.53 0.00 1.34 0.01

Loc2 0.1/ 0.11 1.51 0.6 0.03 1.41 0.02

Loc3 0.5/ 0.50 .// 2.26 0.0/ . 0.01Loc/ 0.50 0./ /.3 2.3/ 0.04 /.66 0.01


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,able ) % or the 'inal ad(usted gridded roduct correlation coe''icients bet+een observed and ad(usted daily

reciitation statistical arameters. 4old values indicate the null hyothesis o' eual means cannot be

re(ected at the )B level based on a t%test.

966% 96% P9C?=? SD$$ 9mm 920mm C 0.?> 0. 0.@2 0.34 0./ 0.?@ 0.>1

Loc2 0.#0 0.>) 0.62 0.>) 0.51 0./ 0./3 0.3 0.?9 0.)3

Loc3 0.1@ 0.#? 0.@3 0.3 0.>1 0.5 0.2 0.43 0.#) 0.#@

Loc/ 0.31 0.29 0.@? 0.)? 0.41 0.43 0.00 0.2 0.)> 0.3?

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,able > % Contingency table summarizing the comarisons o' M;$I" and &IC simulated sno+ cover. &alues

are relative 'reuencies calculated as the total number o' occurrences in each category divided by the number

o' iels 511?08.

M;$I"

V$C /o "no+ "no+ ,otal

/o "no+ 0. 0.05 0.5/

"no+ 0.04 0.26 0.35

,otal 0.5 0.3 1.0

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-ist o' igures

!iure 1 &eora%hic locatio# of the stud+ area i# Ce#tral Chile. !rom #orth to south the basi#s

are 9a%el, Mata>uito Mata>uito ri(er at Lica#te#, Maule Claro ri(er at 9au>ue# a#d

Lo#comilla ri(er at Bodea a#d $tata ri(er basi#s. Circles i#dicate the locatio# of D& rai#

aues a#d stars the locatio# of the three stream aues used i# V$C simulatio#s

!iure 2 Ma%s of a##ual %reci%itatio# for the %eriod 161160. Source a ridded lobal

obser(atio#s a#d b D&. Preci%itatio# la%se rates for latitudi#al ba#ds 3.12 S a#d 35.12 S

for c lobal ridded %reci%itatio# data set a#d d D& data set.

!iure 3 Simulated streamflo8 h+drora%hs for the Mata>uito ri(er at Lica#te# 8ith the

u#ad7usted ridded %reci%itatio#, 8ith a#d 8ithout h+drolo+ model calibratio#.

!iure / Locatio# of D& rai# aue statio#s a#d ad7usted lobal %reci%itatio# rid %oi#ts used

for (alidatio# of dail+ rai#fall.

!iure !or the cross(alidatio#, scatter%lots of obser(ed a#d %redicted a(erae mo#thl+

%reci%itatio# for the mo#ths of Ma+, Ju#e, Jul+, a#d uust. Each %oi#t re%rese#ts o#e

obser(atio# statio# abscissa a#d i#ter%olated %reci%itatio# for the same statio# ordi#ate.

!iure 5 !or the cross(alidatio#, bo;%lots of statistical %arameters, 8hite re%rese#ts

obser(atio#s, medium ra+ re%rese#ts u#ad7usted ridded data, a#d dar: ra+ re%rese#ts ad7usted

%reci%itatio# for each eora%hic locatio#. ?he bottom a#d to% li#es re%rese#t the 2th a#d 4th

%erce#tiles a#d the middle li#e re%rese#ts the media#. uartile, i.e., 2th a#d 4th %erce#tiles.

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=utliers are dis%la+ed 8ith a %lus si#. ?he reader is referred to ?able 1 for statistical %arameter

defi#itio#s.

!iure 4 !or the fi#al ridded ad7usted data a ##ual ad7usted lobal %reci%itatio# for the

%eriod 1602005 a#d b differe#ces bet8ee# the orii#al lobal ridded a#d the ad7usted lobal

%reci%itatio# data sets.

!iure =bser(ed a#d Simulated mo#thl+ flo8s for the Mata>uito ri(er at Lica#te# for the

calibratio# %eriod to% %a#el a#d (alidatio# %eriod bottom %a#el. Summar+ statistics are

sho8# i# each %a#el.

!iure 6 Mo#thl+ obser(ed a#d simulated flo8s for the Claro ri(er at 9au>ue#.

!iure 10 Same as !iure 6 but for the Lo#comilla ri(er at Bodea.

!iure 11 Statistical %ro%erties of obser(ed a#d V$C simulated stream flo8s i# three basi#s

Mata>uito ri(er, Claro ri(er a#d Lo#comilla ri(er. a Ce#ter timi#, b 8ater +ear (olume, c

3da+ %ea: flo8s a#d d 4da+ lo8 flo8s.

!iure 12 Com%ariso# of s#o8 co(erae for the %eriod uust 212, 2002. Shaded areas

i#dicate s#o8 co(erae. a M=D$S a#d b V$C simulated S#o8 ui(ale#t.

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igure 1 % Geograhic location o' the study area in Central Chile. rom north to south the basins areD Rael

Matauito 5Matauito river at -icanten8 Maule 5Claro river at Rauuen and -oncomilla river at 4odega8

and Itata river basins. Circles indicate the location o' $GA rain gauges and stars the location o' the three

stream gauges used in &IC simulations

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544

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546

50

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igure 2 % Mas o' annual reciitation 'or the eriod 19)1%19@0. "ource a8 gridded global observations and

b8 $GA. :reciitation lase rates 'or latitudinal bands %3).12) " and %3>.12) " 'or c8 global gridded

reciitation data set and d8 $GA data set.

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igure 3 % "imulated stream'lo+ hydrograhs 'or the Matauito river at -icanten +ith the unad(usted

gridded reciitation +ith and +ithout hydrology model calibration.

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5

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5

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igure # % -ocation o' $GA rain gauge stations and ad(usted global reciitation grid oints used 'or

validation o' daily rain'all.

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561

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igure ) % or the cross%validation scatterlots o' observed and redicted average monthly reciitation 'or

the months o' May une uly and August. Each oint reresents one observation station 5abscissa8 and

interolated reciitation 'or the same station 5ordinate8.

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564

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400

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igure > % or the cross%validation bolots o' statistical arameters +hite reresents observations medium

gray reresents unad(usted gridded data and dar* gray reresents ad(usted reciitation 'or each

geograhic location. ,he bottom and to lines reresent the 2)th and ?)th ercentiles and the middle line

reresents the median.


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igure ? % or the 'inal gridded ad(usted dataD a8 Annual ad(usted global reciitation 'or the eriod 19)0%

200> and b8 di''erences bet+een the original global gridded and the ad(usted global reciitation data sets.

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411

412

413

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igure @ % ;bserved and "imulated monthly 'lo+s 'or the Matauito river at -icanten 'or the calibration

eriod 5to anel8 and validation eriod 5bottom anel8. "ummary statistics are sho+n in each anel.

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414

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igure 9 % Monthly observed and simulated 'lo+s 'or the Claro river at Rauuen.

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igure 10 % "ame as igure 9 but 'or the -oncomilla river at 4odega.

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422

423

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igure 12 % Comarison o' sno+ coverage 'or the eriod August 21%2@ 2002. "haded areas indicate sno+

coverage. a8 M;$I" and b8 &IC simulated "no+

Documents

Demaria Etal 2012 JHydrometeorology Revised EdM