Deloitte/SEB CFO Survey in Finland: Living with uncertainty

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    The Deloitte/SEBCFO SurveyLiving with uncertainty

    Spring 2013 results Finland

    May 2013

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    More vigorous actionor growth andproftability

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    Contents

    Introduction 5

    Summary Living with uncertainty 6

    Business condence 8

    Prospects and concerns 10

    Finance 15

    Macroeconomic context 19

    Contacts 23

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    Desire to investrises sharply

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    We are excited to present the results o the new Deloitte/SEB CFO Survey 2013. The survey

    combines two reports that have been conducted or years, the Deloitte CFO Survey and

    SEBs Nordic Outlook. From this spring onward, we incorporate aspects o the SEBs Nordic

    Outlook into the Deloitte CFO Survey or Finland, creating an enhanced report.

    The report uniquely combines perspectives rom CFOs within large and midsized

    companies in Finland with viewpoints rom SEBs Nordic Outlook, SEB research teams

    fagship report on key orecasts and global economic trends.

    We hope that you nd our analysis both stimulating and valuable. Please send us eedback

    i you have any questions or suggestions or improvement.

    Welcome to the Deloitte/SEBCFO Survey spring 2013

    Tuomo Salmi Mikko Mkinen

    Partner Partner

    CFO Programme Leader Finance Transormation Leader

    Deloitte Deloitte

    Sakari Jrvel

    Head o Financial Strategy

    Corporate Coverage

    SEB

    Jukka Honkaniemi

    Head o Corporate Coverage

    SEB

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    Uncertainty about the economic environment

    has persistently overshadowed the European

    economies, but it has not made CFOs bleak.

    Although Finnish companies are walking on thin

    ice as GDP is expected to remain unchanged.

    Still, there are signs o more vigorous action or

    growth and protability. While almost a ourth

    o the CFOs would spend their cash surpluses on

    reducing debt in the next six months reducing

    debt, 41% would ocus on strategic investments

    in Finland and abroad. This is a signal to be

    reckoned with.

    Rising optimism and expectations or increased cash

    fows will have little impact on GDP growth on a shortterm basis. Fortunately companies have readjusted their

    business models to better suit the stalled economy

    in 2013. However, the investments they are about

    to make might turn the direction o the not sooner

    than 2014. Recent macro data have led to downside

    surprises. Finnish GDP growth turned negative again in

    the ourth quarter o 2012. Both indicators and hard

    data point towards a weak start in 2013. Two quarters

    o negative growth caused GDP to all by 0.2% in 2012.

    We expect zero growth in the second quarter and only

    a weak recovery ater that and are revising our orecast

    downwards. We expects that GDP will be unchangedin 2013 compared to 2012 and will grow by 1.6% in

    2014.

    Corporate tax decrease came at the right time.

    The survey was conducted beore the Finnish govern-

    ment announced their new plan on lowering the

    corporate taxes and making adjustments to taxes on

    dividends. It seems that the decision o the Finnish

    government came at the right time, as it could reinorce

    the development that was already in place. Albeit

    business strategies are mostly deensive, CFOs argue

    that their companies are grasping on possibilities to

    signicantly grow their business organically and expan-

    sively. Attitudes o the nancial institutions towards the

    companies being positive, expectations or increased

    cash fows being high and corporate bond issuing being

    ever more attractive, there is no worry that Finnish

    companies wouldnt be able to nance their growth.

    Employment will not directly ollow the strategic

    investments. Investments could lead to employment

    o new talents, but net employment rate is expected to

    go down in Finland as 18% o the CFOs indicated that

    amount o employees working or them in Finland will

    decline. On the contrary, 12% o the CFOs indicatedthat international employment rate is going to climb.

    This is how Finnish companies are going to operate, at

    least on a short term basis.

    Summary Living with uncertainty

    Key points

    Companies deend the baseline and grasp to new growth opportunities

    Deensive strategies have nally taken eect risks on balance sheets are

    decreasing

    Deensive strategies encourage grasping on strategic growth opportunities

    Raising capital with corporate bonds equity markets draw little attention

    Bank credit is well available or Finnish companies attitudes o nancial

    institutions towards Finnish companies is regarded positive

    Number o employees expected to decrease in Finland grow globally

    Weakening demand is the single biggest concern o Finnish companies

    Majority o companies will likely renegotiate their loan agreements

    Finnish companies are no longer undervalued

    Zero growth in 2013 yet many growth opportunities ahead Patience is required to see changes in unemployment

    Finnish government has now nourished the strategic

    investments, but the public must acknowledge that

    the investments dont translate to immediate growth

    in GDP, nor employment. As a matter o act, our

    research ndings indicate, that CFOs are investing in

    most productive areas that require less manpower. We

    believe that employment might ollow, but it is not theprimary goal or majority o the companies. Growth o

    employment will be in sight as we rst witness a turn or

    better in the macroeconomic environment.

    Deloitte and SEB recommend that the rise o

    optimism should not be curbed with unrealisti-

    cally high expectations o ast change in unem-

    ployment, as employment will incrementally improve

    ater corporate taxation is changed and investments

    take eect. Patience is the key, no matter how politically

    fammable the subject is.

    High risk appetite despite fuctuating optimism.

    For the past couple o years Finland has either topped

    or scored even with UKs results in terms o optimism

    about their nancial prospects. Last survey (Deloitte

    CFO Survey, all 2012) was the rst period when we

    were depressed to see that Finland had lost the lead.

    Although, the net optimism has increased signicantly

    by 34 percentages, so has UKs and we are still below

    UKs values. It is still too early to say i the increase

    is going to become a trend. Albeit optimism fuctu-

    ates, one message is clear, Finnish companies have an

    appetite or risk. They are looking to increase their

    cash fows and expected to make strategic investmentsboth in Finland and abroad, which was not the case

    or instance in Sweden, where willingness or domestic

    investments was rather low.

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    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    5 = Below normallevel of uncertainty

    4 = Normal levelof uncertainty

    3 = Above normallevel of uncertainty

    2 = High levelof uncertainty

    1 = Very high levelof uncertainty

    34%

    26%

    3%

    6%

    47%

    18%

    11%

    3%2%

    2012Q1

    2012Q3

    2013Q1

    5%

    25%

    54%

    51%

    14%

    2%

    Manuacturing is a key industry driving the

    uncertainty levels higher. The battle with weakening

    demand and increased competition has also been

    overshadowed by the strong Euro. Finnish exportingindustries are not backed by an independent currency

    as in UK and Sweden. Manuacturing production ell in

    both January and February, and exports were roughly

    unchanged in current prices. Condence in industry,

    although better in February and March than during the

    seven months beore that, is weak and does not hint at

    an imminent recovery. Weak growth and demand rom

    major export partners support a orecast o sluggish

    growth in manuacturing production and exports in

    2013. Also, CFOs are worrying over demand, 85%

    o the respondents replied that demand is the largest

    concern or them ar beore any other concern. Theirworry is grounded on solid proo that GDP growth will

    remain close to nothing and consumption is showing

    signs o weakening.

    Stress levels remain high. In contrast to UKs nancial

    uncertainty, where the amount o CFOs evaluating

    the uncertainty above normal levels has dropped rom

    90% (Q3/2012) to 77%, the concerns over nancial

    and economic uncertainty remain high and virtually

    unchanged in Finland. The positive tone has not reached

    Finland yet. For the past three quarters minimum o

    80% o the respondents have reported the uncertainty

    to be above normal levels.

    Employment rates to decrease. In comparison to

    Sweden, Finlands perormance has been much weaker

    since 2008, and the catch-up is ar away. This is largely

    connected to a sharp all in production and exports

    o inormation and communications technology (ICT)

    products, with no rebound expected to be. This trendhas hurt productivity and, together with a aster increase

    in unit labor cost, it has hurt competitiveness. All these

    actors contribute to a weakening current account that

    is now stuck in decit. Due to decit issues, companies

    with international presence are strategically aligning

    their business models with global demand and distri-

    bution structures. This is leading to a decrease in the

    amount o employees working or them in Finland while

    the number o employees working or them abroad

    increases. Although Finns are more eager to make

    strategic investments in Finland, the investments will

    take eect no sooner than 2014 playing little role inemployment development on a short term basis.

    Low interest rates encourage loan renegotiations

    and corporate bond issuance. As nancial risks on

    balance sheets are indicated to all, corporations have

    more courage to enter loan renegotiations in low-

    interest rate environment. In addition to low central

    bank interest rates, the interest rates o corporate

    bonds have remained notably low or long, below the

    European average. Corporations are shiting ocus rom

    issuing shares to issuing syndicated corporate bonds.

    This is not a possibility or the smaller companies, which

    is why they seem more negative in the eyes o nancial

    institutions.

    How would you rate the general level o external nancial and economic uncertainty acing your business?

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    Business confdence

    Fluctuation o business condence continues. Fiscal crisis

    o some Euro member states combined with strong

    euro in the avor o thriving German economy generally

    creates unpredictable business environment where good

    news can be immediately ollowed by a stream o bad

    ones. Strong euro is shadowing Finnish exports, while

    Sweden is still capable o utilizing their krona in avor o

    their industries.

    Some industries are aected more than others. Results

    exhibit a change in attitudes or instance in Finnish

    banking and manuacturing industries which both have

    gone through an exhaustive restructuring within the

    past ew years. All in all, net optimism has climbed rom

    -34% to 2% due to better nancial status o one third o

    the manuacturing companies.

    CFOs prospects about nancial prospects o their

    companies have risen or three consecutive quarters in

    UK. Traditionally net optimism has been on similar levels

    in Finland and UK, but now Finland is trying to pick up

    the speed o UK.

    Chart 1.

    Compared to six months ago how do you eel about the nancial prospects or your company?

    -40%

    -30%

    -20%

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    2013Q12012Q32012Q12011Q32011Q1

    Finland

    UK

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    Overall uncertainty remains high (84%), but it is a good

    sign that less believe that uncertainty level is a high or

    very high. Numbers are closer to the ones we encoun-

    tered just a year ago, when optimism was truly picking

    up until the all came with bleaker attitudes. Lets hope

    that this spring will not prove to be yet another one

    with a lot o promise, with little to deliver.

    More believe that uncertainty is normalizing. More than

    50% o the CFOs believe uncertainty is at least close to

    the normal levels, as in the Q3/2012 overall uncertainty

    was higher (87%) and less than hal believed that it was

    even close to normal.

    In the UK the latest numbers are notably dierent. The

    uncertainty has dropped rom 90% in Q3/2012 to 77%

    in Q1/2013

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    2013Q12012Q32012Q1

    90%

    79%

    87%

    83% 84%

    77%

    Finland

    UK

    Chart 2.

    Percentage o CFOs who rate the level o external nancial and economic uncertainty acing their business

    as above normal, high or very high

    Companies have had toadapt to high levels ouncertainty

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    Prospects and concerns

    Chart 4.

    Assume a current cash surplus position. How would you preer to use the money in the next 6 months?

    Chart 3.

    What are the greatest concerns or your company in 2013?

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Other

    Intere

    strate

    s

    Access

    toca

    pital

    Skilled

    labou

    rshort

    gage

    Exchan

    gerat

    es

    Foreig

    ncom

    petitio

    n

    Costo

    frawm

    aterial

    /comm

    oditie

    s

    Costo

    flabo

    ur

    Dema

    nd

    34%

    22%

    85%

    33%

    Finland

    Sweden27%

    32%

    40%

    8%

    0%

    14%

    21%

    76%

    17%19%

    6% 7%

    33%

    40%

    CFOs have an ambiguous relation-

    ship with demand. Majority o

    respondents have indicated that

    revenues o Finnish companies

    are expected to increase, but on

    the other hand they are highly

    concerned with the suciency o

    the demand to eed the growth.

    85% o CFOs stressed that demand

    is their number one concern.

    Demand is the single greatest

    concern or the CFOs in 2013. CFOs

    have not ascertained themselves

    whether their expectations o higher

    revenues will be realized due to

    unexpected changes in demand.

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    Financial

    investment

    abroad

    Financial

    investment

    in Finland

    Dividend to

    shareholders

    Strategic

    investment

    in Finland

    Strategic

    investment

    abroad

    Pay down

    debt

    23%

    3%

    25%

    18%

    2013Q1

    3%3%

    Blaming Finnish CFOs to be conserv-

    ative and deensive in this economic

    environment would sound reason-

    able, but that is not the ultimate

    truth. Interestingly, Finnish CFOs

    report a higher appetite or risk.

    25% who most preerably use their

    surpluses to pay down debt is closely

    ollowed by preerence to make

    strategic investments in Finland

    (18%) and abroad (23%).

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    CFOs predictions exceed the expec-

    tations o the analytics team opting

    out the possibility that they would

    ace a dip in operating cash fows.

    As companies are struggling with

    a weak demand, CFOs are making

    necessary adjustments to maintain

    the level o operating cash fows.

    They are looking to other sources

    than revenue to secure the cash

    fow, albeit more than hal o the

    respondents are expecting revenues

    to increase slightly. Still, cutting

    costs is the most popular strategy

    to tackle the concerns in regard to

    unexpected fuctuation o demand.

    Chart 5.

    How do you expect operating cash fow in your company to change over the next 12 months?

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    > -10%< -10%0%10%

    38%

    2%

    10%

    29%

    2013Q116%

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    CFOs are battling the altering economy with deensive

    strategies. Especially manuacturing industry is looking

    to increase cash fows (69%).

    Since the Q3/2012 CFOs were almost solely ocusing oncost controlling and securing cash fows, the Q1 in 2013

    shows interestingly signs o increased willingness to take

    some risks alongside with vigorous deensive strategies.

    Percentage o respondents leaning towards product

    innovation, market expansion and organic growth has

    almost doubled rom last all.

    Even expansion through acquisition is regarded as an

    opportunity by quarter o the respondents comparing to

    a low point o last all (only 9% saw it a priority). Still, it

    is not as high priority as organic growth

    Particularly manuacturing (59%), media and telecom-

    munications (60%) and medical care (67%) businesses

    are looking or opportunities to grow with by expanding

    their existing markets with new products

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    45%

    50%

    2013Q12012Q32012Q12011Q3

    Defensive Expansionnary

    Chart 6.

    To what extent is each o the ollowing business strategies likely to be a priority or your business over

    the 12 months?

    Chart 7.

    Corporate priorities: Expansionary vs. deensive strategies

    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    Raising dividends or share buybacks

    Increasing capital expenditure

    Disposing of assets

    Expanding by acquisition

    Reducing leverage

    Introducing new products/services or expanding into new markets

    Expanding organically

    Increasing of cashflow

    Reducing costs

    Strong priority Somewhat of a priority Not a priority

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    Harmonization o organizational operative models

    continues in accordance with global demand anddistribution structures. This change is highlighted by

    the act that, none o the largest companies (more than

    5,000 employees) expected to make any investments

    to hire new employees in Finland. This nding supports

    the popular notion that Finnish labor market is ueled

    by SMEs. However, 80% o the largest companies are

    eager to make labor investments, albeit they all will be

    placed abroad.

    32% o the respondents assume that their workorce

    will grow aster abroad, while 16% assume workorcegrows aster in Finland. Similarly the number o

    employees in Finland is expected to decrease rather than

    increase. The largest reducers in Finland are banking and

    manuacturing industries and the public sector.

    Chart 8.

    Expectations o the number o employees working or your company in the next 6 months

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    AbroadFinlandAbroadFinland

    34%

    20%

    16%

    32%

    Increase in employees working for you Decrease in employees working for you

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    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    DeclineBe unchangedIncrease

    53%

    16%

    50%

    12%

    34% 35%

    Finland

    Sweden

    Chart 9.

    The number o employees working in Finland/Sweden or your company is, in the next 6

    months, expected to:

    Hal o the respondents expect

    employee levels to remain the same.

    From the rest, the most expect the

    employee levels go down.

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    External expectations and the reality are balancing

    out. Compared to past three surveys amount o CFOs

    assessing the valuation o Finnish companies to be

    low has dropped rom some 60% to 29%.The banking

    sector were the most critical about the valuation. All o

    them responded either somewhat overvalued or at air

    value.

    Fair valuation is one o the root causes aecting the

    eagerness or some companies to consider issuing

    new shares. Although it is the nance sector generally

    regarding Finnish companies being overvalued, there is

    some genuine interest amongst CFOs to benet rom

    the situation.

    Finance

    Chart 10.

    How do you currently rate valuation o Finnish companies?

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    6 = No opinion5 = Veryundervalued

    4 = Somewhatundervalued

    3 = At fair value2 = Somewhatovervalued

    1 = Veryovervalued

    2011Q1

    2011Q3

    2012Q1

    2012Q3

    2013Q1

    19%

    32%

    30%

    6%

    54%

    0%

    3%

    8%

    0%

    29%

    19%

    33%

    19%

    10%

    3%3%

    25%

    0%

    8%

    43%

    58%

    0%0%0%0%

    6%

    26%

    57%

    4%

    6%

    Generally the interest to issue new

    shares remains very low. Only 17%

    believe that now is a good time to

    issue new shares. The results are

    consistent across industries.

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    45%

    50%

    2013Q12012Q32012Q12011Q32011Q1

    Chart 11.

    Is now a good time or Finnish companies to perorm a new share issue?

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    Chart 12.

    Sum o CFO's perceiveing corporate bonds as an attractive source o external unding or nnish companies

    40%

    45%

    50%

    55%

    60%

    65%

    70%

    75%

    80%

    2013Q12012Q32012Q12011Q3

    Attractiveness o corporate bond

    issuance has increased systematically

    rom the late 2011. Today 72% o

    the CFOs believe that it is a good

    time to issue corporate bonds.

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    5 = Veryunfavourable

    4 = Not sofavourable

    3 = Average2 = Favourable1= Veryfavourable

    27%

    15%

    40%

    15%

    3%

    2013Q1

    Generally, the accessibility o

    nancing and attitudes towards

    CFOs companies are perceived

    avorable. 55 % o the respond-

    ents evaluate the attitudes above

    average. Still, not every company

    enjoys the same access to nancing

    markets causing some o the

    respondents to return negative

    values. The smaller the company, the

    greater is the deviation in responses

    and the amount o respondents

    assessing the attitudes to be not so

    avorable or very unavorable.

    Chart 13.

    The lending attitude o nancial institutions toward your company is seen as

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    Chart 15.

    Sum o the most likely to renogetiate loan agreement

    Chart 14.

    How has the level o nancial risk on your balance sheet changed over the last 12 months? (Financial risk

    could include, or instance, levels o gearing, uncertainty about the valuation o assets and interest rate

    and exchange rate sensitivity.)

    Generally, the accessibility o nancing and attitudes

    towards CFOs companies are perceived avorable. 55% o the respondents evaluate the attitudes above

    average. Still, not every company enjoys the same access

    to nancing markets causing some o the respondents

    to return negative values. The smaller the company, the

    greater is the deviation in responses and the amounto respondents assessing the attitudes to be not so

    avorable or very unavorable.

    As attitudes o nancial institutions

    are considered avorable by more

    than hal o the CFOs, there is an

    increased likeleness to renogetiate

    loan agreements in good spirit. Low

    interest rates (12 month euribor

    approximately 0.5%) have increased

    interest to reasses loan portolios.

    The amount o CFOs to very likely

    negotiate loan agreements have

    rapidly increased rom 6% to 27%.

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    6 = No opinion5 = Decreasedsignificantly

    4 = Decreasedslightly

    3 = No change2 = Increasedslightly

    1 = Increasedsignificantly

    2011Q1

    2011Q3

    2012Q1

    2012Q3

    2013Q1

    6%5%

    0%

    44%

    32%

    19%

    47%

    32%

    24%

    30%

    8%

    34%

    9%

    46%

    6%

    3%

    0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

    9%

    17%

    28%

    3%

    23%

    53%

    19%

    2% 2%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    45%

    50%

    55%

    60%

    2013Q12012Q32012Q12011Q32011Q1

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    M&A market activitycan only increase

    Chart 16.

    Over the next 12 months how do you expect levels o corporate acquisitions and divestments in Finland to

    change?

    M&A market has hit the rock bottom. Expectations or M&A market

    activity to decrease are lower than any time within two years. 58% expectthe activity to increase within the next 12 months

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    6 = No opinion5 = Decreasesignificantly

    4 = Decreasesomewhat

    3 = No change2 = Increasesomewhat

    1 = Increasesignificantly

    2011Q1

    2011Q3

    2012Q1

    2012Q3

    2013Q1

    74%

    2%

    19%

    3%5%

    0%

    4%

    63%

    2% 2%

    56%

    29%

    4%3%

    0%

    3%

    25%

    0%

    31%

    37%39%

    0%0%0%0%

    55%

    17%19%

    4%5%

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    Macroeconomic context

    Zero growth 2013 - SEB macro outlook or

    Finland. The mood o slightly increasing optimism that

    came rom the survey is not yet refected in macroeco-

    nomic variables, however, SEBs baseline orecast at the

    beginning o the year was slow but positive growth or

    Finland, but the recent macro data has surprised on the

    downside. This has lead us to revise our growth orecast

    downwards. Finnish GDP growth turned negative in

    the ourth quarter o 2012, resulting in a GDP all by

    0.2% in ull year 2012. Now both leading indicators

    and hard data point towards a weak start in 2013. In

    light o the current data we expect zero growth in the

    second quarter o 2013 and only a weak recovery ater

    that. SEB expects that GDP will be unchanged in 2013

    compared to 2012 and will grow by 1.6% in 2014.

    Manuacturing production ell in both January and

    February, and exports were roughly unchanged in

    current prices. Condence in industry, although better

    in February and March than during the seven months

    beore that, is weak and does not hint at an imminent

    recovery. Weak growth and demand rom major export

    partners support a orecast o sluggish growth in manu-

    acturing production and exports in 2013.

    Compared to Sweden, Finlands perormance since 2008

    has been much weaker and a catch-up is ar away. This

    is largely connected to a sharp all in production and

    exports o inormation and communications technology

    (ICT) products, with no rebound expected. This trend

    has hurt productivity and, together with a aster increase

    in unit labour cost, it has hurt competitiveness. Terms o

    trade have also been weak. All these actors contributeto a weakening current account that is now stuck in

    decit.

    Lack o export recovery part o weak GDP growth

    Index 2008=100

    Source: Macrobond

    Leading indicators alling

    Source: DG Ecfn

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    Labour market weakening, consumers getting

    more worried. Capital spending ell in 2012 by 2.9%.

    Capacity utilisation improved somewhat (surprisingly,

    given production and export trends) in Q1 2014 but is

    still at a low level. Weak sentiment in industry, uncer-

    tainty in the euro zone and sub-trend growth by major

    trading partners will make companies put spending on

    hold.

    At the same time, lending to non-nancial corpora-

    tions increased by 7.8% in February and has increased

    between 7-8% during the past year, an indication that

    investments are not alling. We expect investments

    to stay unchanged in 2013.

    Domestic demand was airly resilient in 2012, though

    not only investments but also consumption is

    showing signs o weakness. Real income will rise,

    but only slowly, dampened by rising unemployment and

    a slowdown in wage and salary increases. Retail sales

    are volatile but were roughly unchanged on average in

    January and February. New car registrations are down

    25% so ar this year. Household consumption will add

    a positive contribution to economic growth, but clearly

    less than in 20102012.

    Unemployment has risen by almost 1 percentage point

    since last summer and stood at 8.3% in February.

    The increase is partly driven by growth in the labour

    orce, but employment is also alling at present.

    Unemployment will continue to rise during 2013,

    averaging 8.5%.

    Infation has allen, buoying real income. In February

    infation according to the Harmonised Index o

    Consumer Prices (HICP) was 2.5%, down rom 3.5% in

    December 2012. Infation will continue to all slightly

    this year, averaging 2.3% in 2013 and 2.1% in

    2014.

    Government nances are sound, but under pressure

    rom poorer economic perormance in the short term

    and rom demographics in the longer term. Fiscal

    policy is contractive but the impact o government

    eorts to improve the public budget balance is being

    reduced by sub-par economic perormance. The public

    budget balance is expected to be -2% o GDP in 2013

    and -1% in 2014, below the Maastricht limit o -3% o

    GD, but the decit situation will have to be improved in

    order to keep public nances on a sustainable ooting.

    General government debt will continue to increase until

    2014, when it will reach 53% o GDP.

    Weak production and exports ahead

    Source: DG Ecfn Statistics Finland

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    Source: Statistics Finland, OECD

    Capacity utilisation and capital spending

    Household consumption, income and condence indicator

    Source: Macrobond

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    Source: Statistics Finland

    Source: Macrobond

    Rising unemployment and decreasing number o vacancies

    Per cent, thousands

    Infation is continuing to all

    Year-on-year percentage change

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    Contacts

    Tuomo Salmi

    Partner, CFO Programme Leader

    Tel. +358 (0)20 755 5381

    tuomo.salmi@deloitte.

    Mikko MkinenPartner, Finance Transormation Leader

    Tel. +358 (0)20 755 5682

    mikko.makinen@deloitte.

    Sakari Jrvel

    Head o Financial Strategy

    Corporate Coverage

    SEB

    Tel. +46 8 763 97 98

    [email protected]

    About the surveyThis is the rst quarter edition survey o Chie Financial Ocers and Groups Finance

    Directors in Finland. The survey is published quarterly twice a year soon ater the rst

    and third quarter. It is the only survey that refects CFO attitudes to operating environment,

    valuation, risks, unding and expectations.

    The survey is carried out as a web-based questionnaire. The rst quarter survey took place

    between 26th o March and 16th o April. 63 CFOs participated; including a good repre-

    sentation o privately held and publicly listed medium, large and multinational companies

    across industries. This quarter manuacturing, retail and service industries were in the

    majority. More than hal o the companies have an annual turnover more than 200 mill .

    25% have an annual turnover more than 1.5 bill .

    Writers andContributorsThe survey have been produced by Partners Tuomo Salmi, CFO Programme Leader and

    Mikko Mkinen, Finance transormation Leader.

    The survey was written by Juha Lintula, Analyst, Deloitte and Sakari Jrvel, Head o

    Financial Strategy, SEB.

    Please visit www.deloitte. or the latest and past copies o the survey and other

    publications.

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    About Deloitte

    Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and nancial advisory services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally

    connected network o member rms in more than 150 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and high-quality service to clients, delivering

    the insights they need to address their most complex business challenges. Deloitte has in the region o 200,000 proessionals, all committed to

    becoming the standard o excellence. In Finland Deloitte is among the nations leading proessional services rms, providing audit, tax, consulting,

    and nancial advisory services through more than 400 people in 4 cities. Read more about Deloitte at www.deloitte.

    About SEB

    SEB is a leading Nordic nancial services group. As a relationship bank, SEB in Sweden and the Baltic countries oers nancial advice and a wide

    range o nancial services. In Denmark, Finland, Norway and Germany the bank's operations have a strong ocus on corporate and investmentbanking based on a ull-service oering to corporate and institutional clients. The international nature o SEB's business is refected in its presence in

    some 20 countries worldwide. At 31 December 2012, the Group's total assets amounted to SEK 2,453 billion while its assets under management

    totalled SEK 1,328 billion. The Group has around 16,500 employees. Read more about SEB at http://www.sebgroup.com.