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Delft, 13 October 2011
Marc van DijkDeltares
Flood Forecasting Systems @ DeltaresFEWS-IWP
Outline
• Operational Flood Forecasting at Deltares
• Delft-FEWS: Short overview of the system
• Use of Delft FEWS in the Netherlands
• FEWS IPW (Kanalen)
?
Properties at Risk…?!
Response …
Forecasting, Warning & Response
Measure-ments
Warning Response
Forecasting
SimulationFrom data
to information…
Key Questions…
• More lead time?• More accurate?• Risk of flooding due to levee
failure?
DELTARES
DELFT FEWS – flow forecasting shell
Philosophy
• Framework for organisation for the flood forecasting process
• Integration of data from several sources - present single source to forecaster
• Provides general functional utilities
• Open interface to models used for forecasting
• Dissemination of results
• Delft FEWS is an open system – joint development approach
Providing the forecaster an interface to data…
Simple graphical user interface
Self explanatory
Key features
• GIS Based
• Overview of data & status
FEWS Scotland – flood status in several catchments, January 2008
FEWS Donau (Austria) – Graphs at key stations
Integration of data
Interfaces to data sources• Supports standards in data exchange formats: GRIB, NetCDF, etc.• Data exchange with HIMS (e.g. WISKI, HYMOS)• Plugin-technology to extend integration of data formats• Source code of plugin architecture available on Delft-FEWS Wiki• Emerging standards: WaterML – OpenGIS standard for exchange
of hydrological data (USGS, NWS, CUAHSI), OpenDAP, ..
Integrating forecast models
Delft FEWS independent of model - Key to philosophy of Delft FEWS
• Existing models available – used operationally – maintain investment (i.e. SOBEK, HEC)
• No model available – choose models from wide range – consider suitability & available knowledge base
• New models from academia – fast track science to operations
> 50 models of different nature
Using and displaying uncertainty information
New techniques are used to include uncertainty in forecasts•Quantile Regression (Historic Forecast Performance Tool)
Real Time Control
Supporting decision-making in forecasting systems• RTC Tools is an open source tool for real-time control on hydraulic
structure such as reservoirs, flood detention basins, weirs etc.• Integration in Delft-FEWS; focus on how decision-making can be
supported in forecasting.
Examples of Delft-FEWS systems for the Dutch Waterdienst
FEWS Systems at Waterdienst
Systems for Floods, Droughts and Daily Water Management
• FEWS-Rivers or Rhine and Meuse floods• FEWS-Water management for droughts and water distribution• FEWS-Lakes for floods on IJssellake due to wind effects • FEWS-North Sea for floods on North Sea area• FEWS-IWP for daily management of canals and lakes• FEWS-Algue for water quality on North Sea
FEWS-IWP
Instrument for regulated systems (canals, lakes)
• Focus on daily management of canals and lakes• Water levels, real time control and spills• Short lead time (< 1 day)• Schematic displays with status information
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
Twenthekanalen
• Constructed from 1930-1938
• Northern branch in 1953
• Total 65 km long
• Ships for industry supplies
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• Difference in water levels are large: 25, 16 and 10 meters
• Three big locks for shipping
• Levels are fluctuating +/-20 cm around fixed level
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• On average 2440 large ships pass the lock at Hengelo in one year.
• The amount of water that is lost with one locking cycle is about 16.000 m3.
• To prevent the canal to run dry in summer diesel pumps can pump the water from downstream to upstream. Capacity of the pumps are 18.000 m3/hour.
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• Lock-keepers only have local information, with focus on:
• Number of ships passing the lock
• Water levels upstream of the lock
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• On 22 August 2003 there was a big fire at the Vredestein factory
• Fire fighting water was entering the canal
• Water contained a lot of chemicals
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• Information was needed on the status of the Twentekanalen
• Where was the water flowing to?
• Can the upper lock of the canal be closed to keep the pollution isolated?
• How long can we keep the polluted water in this separated zone?
• Shipping was not possible anymore; for how long?
• A system was needed that:
• Collects data from different sources
• Presentation of data
• Process the data
• Can be used to run scenarios (models)
• Focus on water quantity and quality
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
In 2009 we started implementing Delft-FEWS in different steps:
• Collect and present data from main Telemetry systems (levels, pumps, gates)
• Check all data feeds, important role for the lock keepers
• Collect validation rules, warning levels and flow relations
• Standard FEWS Displays were too complex to understand
• Schematic status displays were developped
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• Development of water balance functions for three canal sections
• Inflow and outflow data is needed from waterboards
• Rainfall / evaporation data from Dutch Met Office
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• Water balances are very useful, but complex for canals
• Difficult to collect all data sources that flow into the canal, small streams have no measurements
• Difficult to collect all data sources that extract water from the canal
• Seepage is important and many times unknown
• Balance errors of 20%-40% is not unusual
• Good water balance is needed before you start modeling
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• A fews days with extreme rain in August 2010More rain expected
Rain came later thanexpected
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• Simulation models and an RTC module will be added to give advice to the lock-keepers
• They will have the opportunity to look 24 hours ahead in time
• SOBEK simulation model has only a local controller
• Problem with canals is that ship movements are unknown, but important
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• Introduction of Real Time Control is next step
• Give Advice the the lock keepers on how to manage their lock, pumps and gates
• Use forecasted flows and water levels
• Use minimum and maximum accepted water levels
• Use Other criteria such as: minimize pump costs, etc.
• RTC Tools is used as toolbox in FEWS (and SOBEK)
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
Spill model is used in Twentekanalen to track a spill:• Flow in canal is main input to the model
FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen
• Work on Twentekanalen needs to be completed in 2012• Other systems are also being developed