DeforestationTrendsCongoBasin ExecSumm English

8/13/2019 DeforestationTrendsCongoBasin ExecSumm English

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Reconciling Economic Growth

and Forest Protection

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin


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Deforestation Trends in the Congo BasinII

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling economic growth and forest protection is the output of a two-year exerciseimplemented at the request of the COMIFAC (regional commission incharge of forestry in Central Africa) to strengthen the understanding ofdeforestation dynamics in the Congo Basin.

The report was written by Carole Megevand with contributions from

Aline Mosnier, Jol Hourticq, Klas Sanders, Nina Doetinchem andCharlotte Streck. The modeling exercise was conducted by a team fromthe International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), led byMichael Obersteiner and composed of Aline Mosnier, Petr Havlk andKentaro Aoki. The data collection campaign in the six Congo Basincountries was coordinated by ONF-International under the supervisionof Anne Martinet and Nicolas Grondard. The executive summary wasedited by Flore de Prneuf. Maps and illustrative graphs were prepared

by Hrishikesh Prakash Patel and Jeff Lecksell.

The team is grateful for useful guidance provided by numerous expertsand colleagues including Raymond Mbitikon, Martin Tadoum JosephArmat Amougou, Igor Tola Kogadou, Vincent Kasulu Seya Makonga,Deogracias Ikaka Nzami, Rodrigue Abourou Otogo, Georges Boudzanga,Kenneth Andrasko, Christian Berger and Gotthard Walser. Special thanksgo to Idah Pswarayi-Riddihough, Jamal Saghir, Ivan Rossignol, Giuseppe

Topa, Mary Barton-Dock and Gregor Binkert who, at different stages,helped make this initiative yield its full results.

The study was coordinated by the World Bank and beneted fromnancial support from various donors, including the Program on Forests,the Norwegian Trust Fund for Private Sector and Infrastructure, theUnited Kingdom Government, the Trust Fund for Environmentally andSocially Sustainable Development and the Forest Carbon PartnershipFacility. The views expressed in this material, however, do not necessarilyreect the ofcial policies and positions of the funders.

Cover Photo: Andrew McConnell / Panos


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Reconciling Economic Growthand Forest Protection

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Deforestation Trends

in the Congo Basin


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1Foreword

As global networks of trade, migration, technology, information and nances have grown in strength, speed and density overthe last decades, so have our understanding and awareness of the connections that shape the worlds physical landscapes andeconomies. We know that policy decisions in one country can affect the way land is managed thousands of miles away. Weknow that greenhouse gases emitted in different sectors and in different economies inuence the pace of climate change forall. And we know that vicious cycles of poverty, land degradation and food insecurity can be transformed into virtuous cyclesof sustainable intensication and shared prosperity with the right interventions and incentives. Development challenges andsolutions are all connected, at the local, regional and global level.

Those far-reaching connections come to the fore in a new and timely study that looks at deforestation trends in the CongoBasin across sectors and beyond national borders. The study, led by the World Banks Africa Region Environment team with theparticipation of key Congo Basin country stakeholders and support from multiple donors, was informed by economic modelingcomplemented with sectoral analysis, as well as interactive simulations and workshop discussions. This innovative approachhas already deepened our understanding of the multiple drivers of deforestation in the Congo Basin beyond the usual suspects(commercial logging) and opened political space to discuss the role of sectors such as agriculture, energy, transport andmining, in shaping the future of the Basins forests.

This analysis, combined with recommendations which policy makers can now further rene and esh out at the countrylevel, could potentially help Congo Basin countries overcome some of the more severe trade-offs between growth and forestprotection. If Congo Basin countries are able to minimize forest loss as their economies develop, they could leapfrog thesteep drop in forest cover that has historically accompanied development in many countries, and make an important globalcontribution to climate change mitigation by reducing emissions associated with deforestation.

The time is now ripe to move ahead with some of the sound no-regrets recommendations made by study participantsand experts.

Foreword

Jamal Saghir

Director Sustainable Development Department Africa RegionWorld Bank


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The countries of the Congo Basin face the dual challengeof developing local economies and reducing poverty whilelimiting the negative impact of growth on the regions naturalcapital, and forests in particular.

Development needs are great. Despite abundant naturalassets, between one-third and two-thirds of the populationin different countries of the Basin hover beneath the nationalpoverty line, access to food is signicantly inadequate,and undernourishment is highly prevalent. Transportationinfrastructure is among the most deteriorated in the world,creating essentially landlocked economies within the regionthat considerably accrue farmers vulnerability to poorharvests. Looking ahead, the Congo Basin population isexpected to double between 2000 and 2030, leading to atotal of 170 million people by 2030people in need of food,energy, shelter and employment.

At the same time, natural assets have so far been largelypreserved, and deforestation rates in the Congo Basinare among the lowest in the tropical rainforest belt andare signicantly below rates in most other African regions.The canopy has benetted to some extent from passiveprotection provided by political instability and the lack oftransportation infrastructure.

However, this situation may change. Local and regionaldevelopment, population increases and global demand forcommodities are likely to increase deforestation and forest

degradation in the Congo Basin. While subsistence activities

such as small-scale agriculture and fuelwood collection arecurrently the main causes of deforestation and degradation inthe Basin, new threats are expected to emerge.

A two-year study was conducted to analyze deforestationdynamics in the Congo Basin and resulting greenhousegas emissions by 2030. This study combined a modelingexercise with a qualitative analysis of trends in differentsectors, as well as a dialogue with experts from the region.Main results suggest that

Deforestation rates are likely to increase in the future tosustain development and poverty reduction.

Increasing agricultural productivity is not sufcient to limitpressure on forests.

Wood extraction for domestic fuelwood or charcoalproduction will continue to grow for the next few decadesand could create a massive threat to forests in denselypopulated areas.

The development of much-needed transportationinfrastructure could lead to major deforestation bychanging economic dynamics in newly accessible areas.

The pressure from formal logging is limited, but informalchainsaw logging is expected to progressively degradeforests.

Mininga largely untapped source of income andgrowthcould also lead to signicant impacts when thesector develops.

Main Messages


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Main Messages 3

Congo Basin countries are now at a crossroadthey arenot yet locked into a development path that will necessarilycome at high cost to forests. They can dene a new pathtoward forest-friendly growth. The question is how to matcheconomic change with smart measures and policy choicesso that Congo Basin countries sustain and benet from theirextraordinary natural assets over the long termin other

words how to leapfrog the dip in forest cover frequentlyobserved in the forest transition curve (see gure 1).

This study onDeforestation Trends in the Congo Basin:Reconciling economic growth and forest protection highlightsoptions to limit deforestation while pursuing inclusive, greengrowth. Emerging environmental nance mechanisms,such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest

degradation (REDD+) under the climate change negotiations,may provide additional resources to help countries protect

their forests. But there are already a number of no-regretsactions that countries can take to grow along a sustainabledevelopment path.

Participatory land use planning could help clarify trade-offs among different sectors, encourage the developmentof growth poles and corridors, and direct destructiveactivities away from forests of great ecological value.

Unlocking the potential of the Congo Basin for agriculturewill not necessarily take a toll on forests: the Congo Basincould almost double its cultivated area without convertingany forested areas. Policy makers should seek to targetagricultural activities primarily towards degraded and non-forested land.

In the energy sector, putting the woodfuel supply chain

on a more sustainable and formal basis should stand asa priority. More attention should be paid to responding togrowing urban needs for both food and energy throughintensied multi-use systems (agroforestry).

Better planning at the regional and national levelscould help contain the adverse effects of transportationdevelopment, through a multi-modal and more spatiallyefcient network.

Expanding sustainable forest management principles tothe booming and unregulated informal logging sectorwould help preserve forest biomass and carbon stocks.

Setting high standard goals for environmentalmanagement of the mining sector could help mitigateadverse effects as the sector develops in the CongoBasin.

Time

F o r e s t c o v e r

Congo Basin countries High Forest Cover/Low Deforestation

Forest-friendly growth

Stage 1:Undisturbed/little disturbedforests

Stage 2:Forest frontiers(high deforestation)

Stage 3:Forests mosaics withstabilized cover (low orzero deforestation)

Stage 4:Increasing forest cover throughafforestation and reforestation

FIGURE 1: Forest transition theory. Where Congo Basin countriesstand.

Source: A dapt ed from Angels en, 2 008 . The dot ted l ine i llus trat es what fore st-f riendly grow th co uld l ook l ike.


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SECTION ONE

Photo: Bolesl aw Kubica


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Congo Basin Forests at a Glance 5

BOX 1: Hunger in a Land of PlentyAlthough most Congo Basin countries are richly endowed with natu-ral resources and abundant rainfall, hunger is a serious to extremelyalarming concern in all countries except Gabon (IFPRI Global Hunger

Index, 2011). Agriculture is still dominated by traditional low-input,low-output subsistence systems and there are tremendous gapsbetween actual and potential yields. Poor infrastructure isolates farm-ers from potential markets and growth opportunities, thereby cuttingoff a signicant proportion of the Congo Basins active populationfrom the broader economy.

Poverty Nutrition Agricul- tural Land Employment

Access to Food

Countries

Population atpurchasingpower parity$1.25 a day

%

Childrenunderage veunderweight

%

Agricul-tural landarea as% of totalland area

Economicallyactivepopulation inagriculture

%

Pavedroads as% of totalroads

Cameroon 9.6 16.6 19.8 46.4 8.4

CentralAfricanRepublic 62.8 21.8 8.4 62.3 ...

Congo,DemocraticRepublic of 59.2 28.2 9.9 56.7 1.8Congo,Republic of 54.1 11.8 30.9 31.2 7.1

EquatorialGuinea ... 10.6 10.9 63.8 ...

Gabon 4.8 8.8 19.9 25.2 10.2

Sub-Saharan Average 47.5 21.3 52.6 58.2 23.8

Source: U NDP (2012).

Congo Basin Forests at a Glance

The Congo Basin spans six countries: Cameroon, theCentral African Republic, the Democratic Republicof Congo (DRC), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and theRepublic of Congo. It contains about 70 percent ofAfricas forest cover: Of the Congo Basins 530 millionhectares (ha) of land, 300 million are covered byforest. More than 99 percent of the forested area isprimary or naturally regenerated forest, as opposed toplantations, and 46 percent is lowland dense forest.

Industrial logging represents an extensive land usein the area, with about 44 million ha of forest underconcession (8.3 percent of the total land area), andcontributes signicantly to revenues and employment.Unlike in other tropical regions, where logging activitiesusually entail a transition to another land use, logging inthe Congo Basin is highly selective and extensive, andproduction forests remain permanently forested.

The Congo Basin forests are home to about 30million people and support livelihoods for more

than 75 million people from more than 150 ethnicgroups who rely on local natural resources forfood, nutritional, health, and livelihoods needs.These forests provide crucial protein sources tolocal people through bushmeat and sheries.Forest products, whether directly consumed ortraded for cash, provide a substantial portion oflocal peoples income. Forests also constitute an

important safety net in countries where poverty andundernourishment are highly prevalent (see box 1).


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Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin6

DEMOCRATICREPUBLIC

OF CONGO

CONGOGABON

EQUATORIAL

GUINEA

CAMEROONCENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

DEMOCRATICREPUBLIC

OF CONGO

CONGOGABON

EQUATORIAL

GUINEA

NIGERIA

NIGER

CAMEROONCENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

SOUTHSUDAN

S U D A NCHAD

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

ZAMBIA

ANGOLA

MaiduguriKano

Maroua

GarouaMoundou

Sarah

Mbandaka

Douala

BumbaLisala

Gemena

Bandundu

Kikwit

Malanje

Huambo

Mongu

Kolwezi

Mwene-Ditu

Mbuji-Mayi

Kananga

Mweka

Lubango

Benguela

MatadiBomaPointe Noire

Wau

Butembo

Goma

BukavuKindu

Kasongo

Kalemie

Lubumbashi

Chingola MufuliraNdola

LuanshayaKitwe

Likasi

Chililabombwe

Mansa

Kabwe

Kasama

Isiro

Kisangani

20

30

10

2010 30

10

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10

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R .

C o n g o

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L u k e n i e R .

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Lake Tanganyika

L a k e

V i c t o r i a

A T L A N T I C

O C E A N

U e l e R

.

Lake Chad

O g o o u

R.

S a n a g a

R.

BANGUI

N'DJAMENA

YAOUNDE

LIBREVILLE

BRAZZAVILLE

KINSHASA

LUANDA

LUSAKA

BUJUMBURA

KIGALI

KAMPALA

JUBA

0

0 100 150 200 Miles

150100 200 Kilometers

IBRD 39552

SEPTEMBER 2012

CENTRAL AFRICA

CONGO BASIN COUNTRIESBOUNDARY OF THE HIGHLY FORESTED CONGO BASIN COUNTRIES

CONGO BASIN FOREST ECOSYSTEM

CITIES

NATIONAL CAPITALS

MAJOR ROADS

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES

This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other informationshown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

CONGOBASINCOUNTRIES


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Congo Basin Forests at a Glance 7

These forests perform valuable ecological services at local,regional, and global levels. Local and regional services includemaintenance of the hydrological cycle and important oodcontrol in a high-rainfall region. Other important regionalbenets include regional-scale climate regulation andcooling through evapotranspiration and buffering of climatevariability. The forests also house an enormous wealth of

plant and animal species, including threatened animals suchas the lowland gorilla and chimpanzee. Globally, CongoBasin forests represent about 25 percent of the total carbonstored in tropical forests worldwide, mitigating anthropogenicemissions (de Wasseige et al. 2012).

Deforestation and forest degradation have been minimalin the Congo Basin. Africa as a whole is estimated to have

contributed only 5.4 percent to the global loss of humidtropical forest over 2000-05, compared to 12.8 percentfor Indonesia and 47.8 percent for Brazil alone (Hansen etal. 2008) However deforestation in the Congo Basin hasaccelerated in recent years (see gure 2). Deforestationand forest degradation have been largely associated withexpansion of subsistence activities (agriculture and energy)and concentrated around densely populated areas.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

Net Defores ta tion Net Degradation

0.09

0.05

0.09

0.17

19902000 20002005

FIGURE 2: Deforestat ion rates in the Congo Basin have doubledrecently

Sou rce: Avera ge annual defo rest atio n and fore st de grada tion rates measured by sa tell ite imagery, as repor ted i n de Wasseige et al. ( 2012).


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SECTION TWO

Photo: Jean- Franois Hel lio and Nicolas Van Ingen


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What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin? A Multi-sectoral Analysis9

What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin?A Multi-sectoral Analysis

The Congo Basin forests may be at a turning point, headingtoward higher deforestation and forest degradation rates. TheCongo Basin forests have been mainly passively protectedby chronic political instability and conict, poor infrastructure,and poor governance. Congo Basin countries thus still tthe prole of high forest cover/ low deforestation (HFLD)countries. However, there are signs that Congo Basin forestsare under increasing pressure from a variety of sources,including mineral extraction, road development, agribusiness,and biofuels, in addition to subsistence agricultural expansionand charcoal collection.

Causes and drivers of tropical deforestation are complex andcannot easily be reduced to a few variables. The interplayof several proximate as well as underlying factors drivesdeforestation in a synergetic way. Expansion of subsistence

activities (agriculture and fuelwood collection) is the mostcommonly cited proximate cause of deforestation in theCongo Basin. This is supported by demographic trends andaccelerated urbanization, which form the most importantunderlying cause of current deforestation. The Congo Basinregion has so far not witnessed the expansion of large-scaleplantation experienced in other tropical regions; however,larger macroeconomic trends could change this situation.

BOX 2: An Interactive Awareness Raising ExerciseIn 2009 the six Congo Basin countries, along with donorsand partner organizations, agreed to collaborate toanalyze major drivers of deforestation and forest degrada-

tion in the region. A modeling approach was chosenbecause the HFLD prole of the Congo Basin countries

justied using a prospective analysis to forecast defor-estation; historical trends were considered inadequateto capture the future nature and amplitude of drivers ofdeforestation. The approach built on an adaptation ofthe GLOBIOM model set up by the International Institutefor Applied Systems Analysis and tailored to the Congoregion (CongoBIOM) to investigate drivers of deforesta-

tion and resulting greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Italso strongly relied on inputs from three regional multi-stakeholder workshops held in Kinshasa and Douala in200910, as well as in-depth analysis of trends in theagriculture, logging, energy, transport, and mining sectors.

The CongoBIOM was used to assess the impacts of aseries of policy shocks identied by the Congo Basincountry representatives. Various scenarios were devel-oped in order to highlight internal drivers of deforesta-tionimproved transportation infrastructure, improvedagricultural technologies, and decreased fuelwoodconsumptionas well as external driversincreasedinternational demand for meat and for biofuel.

The primary goal of the study was to raise awareness and build knowledgeof deforestation dynamics.


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AGRICULTURE

Agriculture is a vital yet neglected sector in the Congo Basin.Agriculture remains by far the regions largest employer. InCameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the CentralAfrican Republic, and Equatorial Guinea, more than half of theeconomically active population is still engaged in agriculturalactivities. Agriculture is also a signicant contributor to GDP,particularly in the Central African Republic, the DemocraticRepublic of Congo, and Cameroon. Despite its importance, theagriculture sector has so far been neglected and underfundedfor much of the past few decades. Most agriculture is smallscale and the sector is dominated by traditional subsistencesystems with a few large commercial enterprises, focusedmainly on palm oil and rubber. Agricultural productivity in theregion is very low compared with other tropical countries,with overall very low fertilizer use. As a result, reliance on foodimports is substantial and increasing.

The potential for agricultural development in the CongoBasin is signicant for many reasons. First, Congo Basincountries are endowed with much suitable and available land:Altogether, Congo Basin countries represent about 40 percentof the non-cultivated non-protected low-population-densityland suitable for cultivation in Sub-Saharan Africa and 12percent of the land available worldwide; if only non-forestedsuitable areas are included, the Congo Basin still represents

about 20 percent of the land available for agriculturalexpansion in Sub-Saharan Africa and 9 percent worldwide(Deininger et al. 2011). Second, the region has unconstrainedwater resources, which gives it an edge over other areasthat may face water scarcity as a result of climate change.Third, Congo Basin countries unsurprisingly rank amongthe countries with the greatest potential in the world for

increasing yields. Last, the rapidly urbanizing populations aswell as increasing international demands for food and energycould drive a dramatic demand for agricultural products fromthe Congo Basin. These factors combine to make agriculture avery promising sector (see for example box 3).

Future agricultural developments may, however, be at theexpense of forests. Unlocking the agriculture potential in the

Congo Basin could increase pressure on forests, particularlyif investments in road infrastructure remove a long-lastingbottleneck to market access. The CongoBIOM was usedto identify the potential impacts of specic changes, bothinternal (such as agricultural productivity) and external(international demand for meat or palm oil) on CongoBasin forests. It highlights that an increase in agriculturalproductivity, often seen as a win-win solution to increaseproduction and reduce pressure on forests, could turn out todrive more deforestation.

Despite its marginal contribution to global markets, theCongo Basin could be affected by global trends in agriculturalcommodity trade. The CongoBIOM tested two scenariosdealing with international commodity demandScenario 1:increase in global meat demand by 15 percent by 2030, andScenario 2: doubling of rst-generation biofuel production by

There is great potential to both expandcultivation and increase existing yields.


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What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin? A Multi-sectoral Analysis 11AGRICULTURE

2030. Under both scenarios, the CongoBIOM highlights thatthe Congo Basin is unlikely to become a large-scale producerof meat or biofuel (in the short/medium term) but that it willbe indirectly affected by changes in other parts of the world.

Although meat production in the Congo Basin is hamperedby the prevalence of the tse-tse y and the absence of areliable feed industry, it could still be affected by a globalincrease in meat demand. According to the CongoBIOM, anincrease in meat production (associated with increased landareas devoted to pasture and feed crops) in other regionsof the world would reduce the production of other crops

traditionally imported by the Congo Basin countries (forexample maize); this would trigger a substitution of importsby more locally grown products that could potentially lead toincreased deforestation in the Congo Basin (see gure 3).

BOX 3: Palm Oil Potential in CameroonDemand for palm oil, the number one vegetable oil glob-ally, is projected to rise as the world.s population looks foraffordable sources of food and energy. In 2011, Malaysiaand Indonesia dominated the production of palm oil, butstrong consumption trends have made it an attractivesector for investors seeking to diversify supply sourcesacross the tropics, including in the Congo Basin. A casein point is Cameroon, where at least six companies are

reported to be trying to secure more than 1 millionha of land for the production of palm oil (Hoyle andLevang 2012). In 2010, Cameroon produced 230,000tons of crude palm oil across an estate of 190,000 ha(independent smallholdings accounted for 100,000 ha;supervised smallholder plantations and agro-industrialplantations accounted for the balance) and was theworlds thirteenth largest producer. Compared with othercrops in the Congo Basin, where productivity tends to trail

far behind other countries performance, palm oil yieldsin Cameroon are among the highest in the world (onpar with Malaysias). Because of its potential in terms ofgrowth, employment, and poverty reduction, industrialpalm oil production is a national priority, with plans toincrease production to 450,000 tons by 2020. Some ofthe proposed plantation sites pre-identied in emergingland deals could be problematic because they appear tobe in high conservation value forests or near biodiversity

hotspots.

Meat demand (+)

Price (+)

Substitution import / production(+)

Domestic production(+)

Risk of deforestation(+)

Substitution of other crops(-)

Exports of other crops(-)

Imports of other crops(-)

Feed crop demand (+)

Domestic production of feed crop(+)

Cultivated land expansion(+)

Livestock(+)

Pasture area (+)

Crop productivity(+)

Rest of the World

Congo Basin

FIGURE 3: Effect s of global meat demand on deforestation in theCongo Basin.


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Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin12 ENERGY

ENERGY

It is estimated that more than 90 percent of the total volumeof wood harvested in the Congo Basin is for woodfuel andthat on average 1 m 3 of woodfuel is required per personper year (Marien 2009). In 2007, Congo Basin countriestotal production of fuelwood exceeded 100 million m3. Thebiggest producers were the Democratic Republic of Congo,with 71 percent of total regional fuelwood production, andCameroon, with 21 percent, reecting the countries sharesof the regional population.

That said, energy proles vary from one country to anotherbased on wealth, access to electricity and the relative costs ofwood and fossil fuel energy. In Gabon, for example, relianceon woodfuel is signicantly lower, thanks to an extensiveelectricity network and subsidized gas for cooking.

The urban lifestyle tends to be more energy intensive

because households in urban areas tend to be smaller,leading to less efcient per capita fuel use for cooking. Inaddition, charcoal is often the primary cooking fuel for manysmall-scale roadside restaurants and in kitchens of largerpublic institutions, such as schools and universities, hospitals,and prisons, as well as small-scale industries. With an averageurban growth of 3 to 5 percent per year and even more(5 to 8 percent) for already large cities such as Kinshasa,

Kisangani, Brazzaville Pointe Noire, Libreville, Franceville, PortGentil, Douala, Yaounde, and Bata, Congo Basin countries are

witnessing a shift from fuelwood to charcoal consumptionbecause charcoal is cheaper and easier to transport andstore.

Charcoal production in the Congo Basin increased by about20 percent between 1990 and 2009from 1,094,000to 1,301,000 metric tonsaccording to the UN Energy

Statistics Database. In contrast to China, India, and muchof the developing world, where the use of wood-basedbiomass energy has peaked or is expected to peak in thenear future, consumption of wood-based biomass energy islikely to remain at very high levels in the Congo Basin andeven continue to increase for the next few decades, basedon population growth, urbanization, and the relative pricechange of alternative energy sources for cooking (liqueedpetroleum gas or others).

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Latin AmericaRest ofDeveloping Asia

ChinaIndiaSub-Saharan Africa

2004 * 2009 2015 2030

N u m

b e r o

f P e o p

l e ( i n m

i l l i o n s )

FIGURE 4: Number of people rely ing on the traditional use of biomass(millions)

Source: I EA Wo rld Energy Out look 2010. (*= IEA World Ene rgy Ou tlook 2006) . Note : The proj ect ions for 2015 and 2030 a re pa rt o f the IEA Ne w Pol icie s Sce nari o, wh ichassumes that recent government commitments are implemented in a cautious manner,and primary energy demand increases by one-third between 2010 and 2035, with 90

percent o f the growth in economies outs ide t he Organizatio n for E conomic Co ope ratio n and Deve lopme nt.

Consumption of woodfuel is likely to remain atvery high levels for the next few decades.


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What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin? A Multi-sectoral Analysis 13ENERGY

BOX 4: Feeding Cities: Mixing Charcoal and Cassava nearKinshasa

Kinshasa, a megacity of 8 to 10 million inhabitants, is located ina forest-savannah mosaic environment on the Batk Plateau inthe Democratic Republic of Congo. The citys wood energy sup-ply of about 5 million m3 per year is mostly informally harvestedfrom degraded forest galleries within a radius of 200 km of

Kinshasa. With gallery forests most affected by degradation fromwood harvesting, even forests beyond the 200 km radius are ex-periencing gradual degradation, while the peri-urban area withina radius of 50 km of Kinshasa has suffered total deforestation.

However, there have been several attempts to develop planta-tions around the mega-city to help provide wood energy on amore sustainable basis. About 8,000 ha of plantations wereestablished in the late 1980s and early 1990s in Mampu, inthe degraded savannah grasslands 140 km from Kinshasa tomeet the citys charcoal needs. Today the plantation is managedin 25 ha plots by 300 households in a crop rotation that takesadvantage of Acacia trees nitrogen-xing properties and theresidue from charcoal production to increase crop yields. Theplantations produce about 10,000 tons of charcoal per year, or1.6 percent of Kinshasas estimated charcoal demand (Peltier etal. 2010).

Another scheme, run by a Congolese private company called

Novacel, intercrops cassava with Acacia trees in order togenerate food and sustainable charcoal, as well as carboncredits. To date, about 1,500 ha out of a projected 4,200 havebeen planted. The trees are not yet mature enough to producecharcoal, but cassava has been harvested, processed, and soldfor several years. The company has also received some initialcarbon payments. The project has been producing about 45tons of cassava tubers per week and generates 30 full-time jobs,plus 200 seasonal jobs. Novacel reinvests part of its revenue

from carbon credits into local social services, including themaintenance of an elementary school and health clinic.

In rural areas the impact of woodfuel collection may beoffset by natural forest regeneration, but it can becomea severe cause of forest degradation and eventualdeforestation when demand comes from concentratedmarkets such as urban households and businesses.Basins that supply a growing urban demand extendover time and can radiate as far as 200 km from the

city centers, gradually degrading natural forests. Theperi-urban area within a radius of 50 km of Kinshasa, forexample, has been largely deforested (see box 4).

Wood biomass energy is supplied by an inefcientsector. Charcoal is mostly produced using traditionaltechniques, with low transformation efciencies (earthpit or earth mound kilns). The organization of thecharcoal supply chain is also notoriously inefcient,relying on poorly designed regulatory frameworks thateventually lead to massive informality in the sector. Thepricing structure of woodfuel sends perverse signals, asit incompletely accounts for the different costs alongthe value chain. In most cases, the primary resource(wood) is taken as a free resource. Inadequateeconomic signals in the woodfuel supply chain donot allow the producer to apply sustainable forestmanagement techniques.

However, experience in other countries (for example,Rwanda) suggests that the scarcity of wood productsincreases the economic value of remaining forests,thereby creating incentives for better forest managementand the establishment of woodlots and tree plantations.As a result, forest ecosystems begin to recoveralbeitwith a great loss in biodiversityand transition to morearticially planned plantations and monocultures.


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Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin14 TRANSPORTATION

TR AN SPORTAT ION

Transportation infrastructure in the Congo Basin is woefullyinadequate to support development and poverty reduction.Road networks are sparse and poorly maintained, oftenas a result of recent civil conicts. The paved road densityin the Congo Basin is among the lowest in the world withonly 25 km of paved road for each 1000 km 2 of arableland, compared with an average of 100 km in the restof Sub-Saharan Africa. A legacy of the colonial era, therailways system was designed to facilitate the extraction ofnatural resources rather than to support the movement ofpeople and goods. Railways are poorly maintained, withmore than a third of the total network not fully operational.The river transportation networks of the Congo Basin holdgreat potential (25,000 km of navigable waterways) butremain marginal because of outdated infrastructure, lack ofinvestment, and poor regulatory frameworks.

Lack of transportation infrastructure has hampered economicgrowth in the Congo Basin by creating barriers to trade notonly with international markets but also internally in domesticmarkets. For example, domestic transport costs, at about$3,500 to $4,500 per container, account for more than 65percent of the total cost of importing goods to the CentralAfrican Republic (Domnguez-Torres and Foster 2011). This

has created multiple landlocked economies within a singlecountry, with limited to no exchanges among them. Decient

infrastructure holds back extractive sectors (such as loggingand mining) and sectors that rely on mobility of people andgoods. The agriculture sector is particularly affected, with asevere connection gap between producers from rural areasand consumers in growing urban centers.

Lack of connectivity prevents the modernization of local

farming practices, with farmers unable to rely on marketsfor either inputs or outputs and forced to rely on self-subsistence. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, it isestimated that only 33 percent (7.6 million out of 22.5million ha) of all non-forested suitable arable land is lessthan six hours from a major market; that proportion is aslow as 16 percent in the Central African Republic (Deiningeret al. 2011). (By contrast, 75 percent of the non-forestedsuitable land in Latin America is within 6 hours of a markettown.) As a result, growing domestic markets are mostly fedby food commodity imports which deteriorate the nationalagriculture trade balance. Together with poor governance andhigh political risks, this lack of infrastructure helps explain whythe Congo Basin has not seen the type of large-scale landacquisitions witnessed in other parts of the developing world.

The isolation created by poor infrastructure also representsa signicant risk in terms of peoples vulnerability to climaticshocks: Even a modestly unsatisfactory growing season can

jeopardize food security, because people have no way tobenet from surpluses in other parts of the country.

The infrastructure gap in the Congo Basin is widelyacknowledged. Most Congo Basin countries have setambitious infrastructure goals to drive economic growth anddevelopment. In Republic of Congo, where the transportationsystem is by far the most deteriorated, public nancing to

Improved transportation could unlock thedevelopment potential of the Congo Basin but threaten its forest cover.

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What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin? A Multi-sectoral Analysis 15 TR ANSPORT ATI ON

the transport sector increased by a third between 2006and 2010 (African Development Bank, 2011). Signicantprogress has also been made to mobilize external fundingto support the reconstruction of the road network. TheDemocratic Republic of Congo for instance has securedmajor nancial commitments from multilateral and bilateralsources, including China. At the regional level, various entities

are drafting plans and strategies to ll the infrastructuregap, including the Program of Infrastructure Developmentin Africa from the African Union/New Partnership forAfricas Development, the Consensual Road Network fromEconomic Community of Central African States, and the RiverTransportation plan from CICOS (Commission Internationaledu Bassin Congo-Oubangui-Sangha).

Transport infrastructure is one of the most robust predictors oftropical deforestation. Of all the different scenarios tested bythe CongoBIOM, a scenario modeling improved transportationinfrastructure is by far the most damaging to forest cover.Most of the impacts do not result from the but from indirectimpacts associated with higher connectivity (see box 5).

The Congo Basins inadequate transportation infrastructurehas by and large protected its forests. The challenge now isto strike the appropriate balance between forest protectionand the development of a rural road network that wouldunlock the Congo Basins economic potential (particularly inagriculture).

BOX 5: Simulating Changes Resulting from ImprovedInfrastructure

The CongoBIOM was used to compute the likely impactof all the road and railways projects for which nancinghas already been secured. It simulated changes inaverage travel time to the closest city along with changesin internal transportation costs, and took into account

population density and urbanization trends. While thedirect impact of road construction in rainforests is oftenlimited, indirect and induced impacts could representa major threat by signicantly changing economicdynamicsparticularly in the agriculture sectorin newlyaccessible areas.

A reduction in transport costs can lead to signicantchanges in the equilibrium of rural areas along thefollowing causal chain:

Improved infrastructure Increased agriculture production Increased pressure on forests

The model showed that when agricultural products reachurban markets at a lower price because of lower transpor-tation costs, consumers tend to buy more domesticallygrown products through import substitution. This inturn encourages producers to increase their production.

Additionally the price of inputs such as fertilizers tendsto go down, increasing agricultural productivity. A newequilibrium is reached with a larger volume of regionallygrown agricultural products and lower prices comparedwith the initial situationa change that presumablyimproves food security and human wellbeing but createsincentives for clearing forest land for agriculture. Thereduction of domestic transportation costs also improvesthe international competitiveness of agricultural and

forestry productsincluding products derived from uncon-trolled logging along the newly opened roads.

D f t ti T d i th C g B i16 LOGGING


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Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin16 LOGGING

LOGGING

Industrial logging represents an extensive land use in theCongo Basin, with about 44 million ha of forest underconcessiona fourth of the total dense lowland forestarea (see gure 5). The formal logging sector producesan average of 8 million m3 of timber annually, with Gabonas the largest producer. Logging also contributes about6 percent of the GDP in Cameroon, the Central AfricanRepublic and Republic of Congo, and is an important sourceof employment in rural areas. The formal sector accountsfor about 50,000 full-time jobs and much more indirectemployment in the six countries.Employment created by privatesector operators in the formalforestry sector is particularlyimportant in Gabon and theCentral African Republic wheretimber is the largest source of

jobs after the public sector.

Contrary to the popularimpression, logging is not

uniformly a cause of deforestationand forest degradation:Ecosystem services and otherland uses coexist with loggingconcessions. Unlike in othertropical regions, logging in theCongo Basin usually does notresult in conversion to other land

uses, such as cattle ranching orplantations. Industrial loggings

impacts are further limited by the adoption of SustainableForest Management (SFM) principles as well as the highselectivity of logged species. The trend toward SFM has beenmomentous: As of 2010, 25.6 million ha were managedunder state-approved plans. Wood extraction rates are verylow: on average less than 0.5 m3 per ha. Of the more than100 species generally available, fewer than 13 are usually

harvested.

Although the footprint of formal logging operations isconsidered low, the informal artisanal sector presents adifferent story.

Total land area (ha) Total lowland dense forest area (ha) Commercial logging concessions (ha)

Congo, Democratic Republic of EquatorialGuinea

Gabon Republic of Congo Cameroon Central African Republic

232,822,500101,822,027

12,184,130

2,673,0002,063,850

*

26,253,80022,324,8719,893,234

34,276,60017,116,583

12,669,626

46,544,50018,640,192 6,381,684

62,015,2006,915,2313,022,789

FIGURE 5: Land, dense forest and logging areas in the Congo Basin

* In Equatorial Guinea, all logging concessions were cancelled in 2008 . Source: Prepared from data in: Wasseige et al. (2012).

What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin? A Multi sectoral Analysis 17LOGGING


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What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin? A Multi-sectoral Analysis 17LOGGING

A booming informal logging sector may lead to increased forest degradation.

The artisanal sector, while long overlooked, is now recognizedas a major segment of the logging sector. There are fewreliable data about informal logging which is mostly orientedto domestic markets, but experts believe that it is at least aslarge as the formal sector and has more serious impacts onforest loss by progressively degrading forests close to highlypopulated areas.

In Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo,informal timber production already surpasses formal timberproduction, and in the Republic of Congo, domestic timberproduction represents more than 30 percent of total timberproduction (Lescuyer et al. 2012).

The informal sector supplies markets that are less selectivethan export markets; chainsaw operators are less efcient intheir use of trees to produce timber; and informal activitiestend to over-log the most accessible areas, surpassingregeneration rates. On the plus side, the informal sector isa larger source of direct and indirect local employment thanthe formal sector, with benets more equally redistributed atthe local level.

Domestic demand for construction timber is booming and iscurrently quasi-exclusively supplied by the unregulated, under-

performing and unsustainable informal sector. This trend isunlikely to wane as most Congo Basin countries experience astrong urbanization process. In addition, demand for informaltimber emanates from other African countries (such as Niger,Chad, Sudan, Egypt, Libya, and Algeria), where demographicgrowth and urbanization are booming.

Left unregulated, this segment of the forest sector mayseverely undermine forest biomass and erode carbon stocks.

There are also opportunities to improve the competitivenessof the formal logging sector so that it becomes a greatersource of employment and growth. Despite the high valueof their timber and gains in sustainable forest management,Congo Basin countries remain relatively small playersin terms of timber production at the international level:Timber from Central Africa represents less than 3 percentof the global production of tropical roundwood, far behindthe other two major tropical forest regions (OFAC 2011).Their contribution to the trade of processed timber is evensmaller. Processing capacities are essentially limited toprimary processing (sawnwood, peeling, and slicing for theproduction of plywood and veneer). Investing in modernizedprocessing capacities along the secondary and tertiary stagescould generate more added value and employment fromexisting forest resources and tap regional demand for higher-end furniture.

Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin18 MINING


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Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin18 MINING

Positive prospects for the developmentof the mining sector carry both growth

promises and environmental risks.

MINING

The Congo Basin is home to mineral resources worthbillions of dollars on world markets, but that wealth hasbeen largely untapped. Among these resources are valuablemetals (copper, cobalt, tin, uranium, iron, titanium, coltan,niobium, and manganese) and non-metals (precious stones,phosphates, and coal). With the exception of the DemocraticRepublic of Congo, the mineral wealth of the Congo Basinhas been underexploited in part because of civil unrest andconict over the past two decades, lack of infrastructure, apoor business climate, and heavy reliance on oil for somecountries in the region. Armed groups have often usedmineral wealth to fund their activities, perpetuating a cycle ofinstability that discourages investment.

World demand for mineral resources increased signicantlyafter 2000, driven by global economic development and

particularly Chinas strong growth. While the world recession of2008 affected the mining sector, economic recovery in someemerging countries led to a rapid revival of demand for rawmaterials in 2009. Growth in the technology, transportation,and construction sectors will likely continue fueling greaterdemand for aluminum, cobalt, copper, iron ore, lead,manganese, platinum metals, and titanium in the future.

In the context of rising demand and high prices, mineralreserves that used to be considered nancially unviableare now receiving much attention. Heightened interestfrom investors is directly reected in increased explorationactivities in the Congo Basin, including in densely forestedareas. Historically, the majority of mining operations in theCongo Basin has occurred in non-forested areas, but that is

projected to change.

The past few years have also seen the emergence of newtypes of deals in which investors have offered to buildassociated infrastructure (including roads, railways, powerplants, ports, etc.) in exchange for security of supply. Theburden of the infrastructure investments is thus taken off thecountries shoulders, which theoretically alleviates one of themajor constraints to mining development. At the same time,the decline of oil reserves is pushing countries like Gabonand Cameroon to develop other extractive industries to offsetthe revenue gap from declining oil wealth.

The mining sector could become an engine of growth inthe Congo Basin. At its height in the mid-1980s, the miningsector contributed 8 to 12 percent of the DemocraticRepublic of Congos GDP. Given the Democratic Republic ofCongos extensive copper, cobalt, gold, diamond, cassiterite,and coltan reserves, mining could contribute to signicantrevenue increases and sustain growth in the economy as awhole, including through employment.

Compared with other economic activities, mining has a fairlylimiteddirect impact on forest cover. Indirect impacts can

What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin? A Multi-sectoral Analysis 19MINING


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g y

be more important and are tied to the larger infrastructuredevelopments that tend to occur in a mining region, suchas building power plants (including dams) and more roads.Induced impacts may include impacts associated with a largeinux of workers, such as subsistence agriculture, logging,poaching, and other activities. Finally,cumulative impactsrelate more to artisanal mining, where many small individualmining sites add up to signicant impacts (see box 6).

Poor land use management can potentially amplify theadverse impacts of mining operations (both explorationand exploitation). Numerous conicts have been notedbetween and among conservation priorities, mining andlogging concessions, and the livelihoods of local populations.For example, in the Sangha Tri-National Park (shared byCameroon, the Central African Republic, and Republic ofCongo), projected logging and mining concessions overlapwith the regions protected areas and agro-forestry zones(Chupezi, Ingram and Schure 2009).

BOX 6: In Search of Green GoldBoth artisanal miners (who operate with little mechanizedaid) and small-scale miners (who use more organizedand more productive methods but produce less than acertain tonnage of minerals per year) have respondedto international demand for minerals by increasingactivity in the Congo Basin in recent years. Some of the

environmental concerns associated with artisanal andsmall-scale mining stem from practices that can includeprimary forest clearance, dam construction, the diggingof deep pits without backlling, and resulting impacts onwater levels and watercourses. Forest degradation is alsoassociated with the arrival of large numbers of migrantdiggers spread out over a large area of forest. In Gabon,for example, artisanal miners suffer from a fragile legalstatus that gives them little incentive to pursue environ-

mentally responsible mining (WWF 2012).Strategies to respond to these issues include the settingup of socially responsive and environmentally sustainablesupply chains, and measures to professionalize and for-malize artisanal and small-scale mining activities so thatrisks are managed and minimum standards introduced.These initiatives are partially inspired by the success of athird-party certication scheme called Green GoldOroVerde, born in 1999 in Colombia to stop the socialand environmental devastation caused by poor miningpractices in the lush Choc Bioregion, and to supplyselect jewelers with traceable, sustainable metals.


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SECTION THREE

Photo: Andrew McConnell / Panos

How to Reconcile Growth and Forest Protection Policy Options and Recommendations21


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How to Reconcile Growth and Forest ProtectionPolicy Options and Recommendations

The countries of the Congo Basin face the dualchallenge of urgently developing their economies toreduce poverty while limiting the negative impact onthe regions natural resources. Growing internationalrecognition of the importance of forests to stem

climate change provides new opportunities for CongoBasin countries to reconcile these objectives, byleveraging climate nance and creating momentumfor policy change.

Since 2007, parties to the UN Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC) have deliberatedon a framework that would create incentives forreducing emissions from deforestation and forestdegradation (REDD+) by rewarding tropical countriesthat preserve and/or enhance the carbon locked

in forests. International, regional, and nationaldiscussions on the future REDD+ mechanism havegiven rise to a better understanding of the multipledrivers of deforestation and a more holistic view oflow-carbon development in which different sectorsplay a role. While many elements of REDD+ remainunknown (see box 7), countries can focus onno-regrets measures that should yield benets

regardless of the shape of a future mechanism underthe UNFCCC.

Congo Basin countries have the opportunityto embark on development pathways that

leapfrog severe deforestation.

BOX 7: A Fair BaselineInternational negotiations on forests and climate change havebeen positive for Congo Basin countries. The Congo Basincontains an estimated 25 percent of the total carbon stored in

tropical forests worldwide and has received wide attention asa result. Congo Basin countries have received support from avariety of bilateral and multilateral funds including the ForestCarbon Partnership Facility, UN-REDD, Global Environment Facilityand the Forest Investment Program. For now, nancing resourcesfall under Phase 1 of the REDD+ mechanism, which deals withthe readiness process (including capacity building and plan-ning). The core provision of nance is expected to come later on,in a phase that rewards measured, reported and veried results.This could be particularly tricky in the Congo Basin context.

One of the most important challenges for Congo Basin countriesrelates to the development of reference levels, or the base-lines against which their success in reducing emissions will bemeasured. For HFLD countries, using historic baselines may notcapture the effort and economic sacrice required to combatfuture deforestation risks.

In December 2008, countries agreed that REDD+ reference lev-

els should take into account historic data, and adjust for nationalcircumstances. This appears to suggest that countries, such asthose in the Congo Basin, with low historic rates of deforesta-tionbut potentially high future ratescould consider factoringthis into a proposed reference level. But credible data that would

justify adjustments to historical trends could be difcult to comeby. Although the modeling approach used in this study was an at-tempt to use existing, limited data to offer an initial description offuture deforestation trends, it was not designed to provide robustquantitative information for setting reference levels in a nancingmechanism such as REDD+.



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This study highlights options to limit deforestation whilepursuing economic growth in an inclusive and sustainableway. It outlines both cross-cutting and sector-specicrecommendations. These recommendations are intendedas general guidelines that should spur more detailed policydiscussions at the country level.

CROSS-CUTTING RECOMMENDATIONS

Invest in participatory land use planning

Participatory land use planning should be used to maximizeeconomic and environmental objectives and reduceproblems resulting from overlapping usage titles andpotentially conicting land uses. Trade-offs among different

sectors and within sectors need to be clearly understoodby the stakeholders so that they can dene developmentstrategies at the national level. This requires robust socio-economic analysis as well as strong coordination amongministries and some form of high level arbitrage. Oncecompleted, this land plan would determine the forest areasthat need to be preserved, the areas that can coexist withother land uses, and those which could potentially be

converted to other uses.

While planning for economic development, particularattention should be given to protecting high-value forestsin terms of biodiversity, watershed, and cultural values.Optimally, mining, agriculture, and other activities shouldbe directed away from forests of great ecological value. Inparticular, agriculture development should primarily targetdegraded lands. The Global Partnership on Forest Landscape

Restoration estimates more than 400 million ha of degradedland in Sub-Saharan Africa offer opportunities for restoring orenhancing the functionality of mosaic landscapes that mixforest, agriculture, and other land uses.

One output of land use planning could be the identicationof growth poles and major development corridors that couldbe developed in a coordinated manner, with the involvementof all government entities along with the private sector andcivil society. In the Congo Basin, this approach would likelybe driven by natural resources and provide upstream anddownstream linkages around extractive industries. While aland use planning exercise denitely needs to be conductedat the country level (and even at the provincial level), thecorridor approach has also been adopted by the EconomicCommunity of Central African States at the regional level tofoster synergies and economies of scale among memberstates.

Improve land tenure schemes

Effective systems of land use, access rights, and propertyrights are essential to improve the management of naturalresources. Improving these systems is a priority for providingfarmers, especially women, with the incentives needed tomake long-term investments in agricultural transformation.Likewise, there is strong evidence that community-basedforest management approaches can expand the supply offuelwood and relieve natural forests from unsustainablewithdrawals, provided communities are given enoughvisibility on land/tree tenure issues to invest in the long- termsustainability of forests, woodlots, and agroforestry systems.



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Current land tenure schemes are not conducive to grassrootssustainable forest management in Congo Basin countries.Outside of commercial logging concessions, forests areconsidered free access areas under state ownership andare not tagged with property rights. Moreover, tenure lawsin most Congo Basin countries directly link forest clearing( mise en valeur ) with land property recognition and thuscreate an incentive to convert forested lands into farmland.Current land tenure laws should be adjusted to separate landproperty recognition from forest clearing.

Strengthen institutions

Without strong institutions able to enforce rules and buildalliances within a complex political economy, neither landuse planning nor tenure reform will yield real change.

Administrations face expectationsin terms of planning,monitoring and controlling forest resourcesthat they cannotadequately meet when they are weak. Properly staffed andequipped institutions are necessary to ght illegal activitiesbut also to undertake the difcult tasks of formalizingartisanal logging, the woodfuel/charcoal value chain, andartisanal mining in critical ecosystems. New technologies(based on geographic and information technology systems)should be more widely available to administrations toimprove their performance.

Monitoring efforts are ideally performed by regulatoryagencies. In practice, strategic partnerships can be set upto improve monitoring activities: Local communities can betrained and engaged in helping regulators monitor activitieson the ground; nongovernmental organizations can provideadditional monitoring via eld projects, for example nearmining sites.

Finally, for strategic planning purposes, synergies should bebuilt with existing processes such as the ComprehensiveAfrica Agriculture Development Plan (CAADP) and the ForestLaw Enforcement Governance and Trade (FLEG-T) initiatives.CAADP provides an excellent and timely opportunity to

thoroughly analyze agricultural potential, develop or updatenational and regional agricultural investment plans aimedat increasing agricultural productivity on a sustainable basis,and strengthen agricultural policies. For the forest sector,the FLEG-T approach, backed by the European Union in allCongo Basin countries except Equatorial Guinea, provides aneffective vehicle for improving forest governance, including inthe domestic arena.

BOX 8: An emerging cross-sectoral agendaBy looking at opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gasemissions at the landscape level, REDD+ could emergeas a development planning approach to coordinateforests and other land uses. National REDD+ readinesscommittees have been set up in most Congo Basincountries and are typically composed of representatives

from different ministries. Although cross-sectoral coordi-nation is still weak, the REDD+ agenda has benettedfrom political support that transcends divisions betweensectors. That support was evident in October 2011,for example, when a high-level Forum on Forests andClimate Change for the Sustainable Development ofthe Democratic Republic of Congo drew speakers fromthe Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Tourism;the Ministry of Planning; the Ministry of Energy; and the

Ministry of Agriculture.



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AGRICULTURE

Increase productivity and prioritize non-forestedlands

Prioritize agricultural expansion on non-forestedareas. There is an estimated 40 million ha of suitablenon-cropped, non-forested, non-protected land in

the Congo Basin. This corresponds to more than 1.6times the area currently under cultivation. Utilizingthese available areas, along with an increase in landproductivity, could dramatically transform agriculture inthe Congo Basin without taking a toll on forests. Decision-makers must prioritize expanding agriculture on non-forested lands.

Empower smallholder farmers. With about half the

population active in agriculture in most countries ofthe Congo Basin, there is a need to foster sustainedagricultural growth based on smallholder involvement.Experience in other tropical regions shows this is possible.Thailand, for example, considerably expanded its riceproduction area and became a major exporter of othercommodities by engaging its smallholders through amassive land titling program and government support for

research, extension, credit, producer organizations, andrail and road infrastructure development.

Reinvigorate research and development (R&D) towardsustainable productivity increase. R&D capacities in theCongo Basin, with the exception of Cameroon, have beendismantled over the past decades. Research has largelyneglected the most common staple food crops suchas yams, plantains, and cassava, usually referred to as

neglected crops. The potential to increase productivity

of these crops and improve their resistance to diseaseand tolerance to climatic events has also been untapped.Partnerships need to be established with internationalresearch centers (for example among members of theConsultative Group on International Agricultural Research)to stimulate agricultural research in the Congo Basin andprogressively strengthen national capacities.

Promote a sustainable large-scale agribusinessindustry. Large agribusiness operations, especially rubber,oil palm, and sugarcane plantations, have the potentialto sustain economic growth and generate considerableemployment for rural populations. Given weak landgovernance, there is a risk that investors will acquire landalmost for free, interfere with local rights and neglect theirsocial and environmental responsibilities. Governments

should establish stronger policies on future large landinvestments, including requiring land applications to beoriented toward abandoned plantations and suitablenon-forested land. Efforts to put palm oil production ona more sustainable footing, such as the Roundtable onSustainable Palm Oil founded in 2004, may help mitigatesome of these environmental issues by setting standardsthat aim to prevent further loss to primary forests orhigh conservation value areas and reduce impacts onbiodiversity.

Foster win-win partnerships between large-scaleoperators and smallholders. Such partnerships couldbecome an engine for transforming the agricultural sector.While this has not yet materialized in the Congo Basin,there are many examples in the world where meaningfulpartnerships between smallholders and large-scale

operators have yielded successful results and promoted awell-balanced development of agriculture.



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ENERGY

Organize the informal value chain Put woodfuel energy higher on the political agenda.

Despite its undisputed importance as a major sourceof energy, woodfuel is still getting very little attentionin the policy dialogue and therefore is poorly featured

in the ofcial energy policies and strategies. There is aneed to change the policy makers perception of woodenergy as traditional and old-fashioned. Lessons couldbe drawn from Europe and North Africa where woodenergy is emerging as a cutting-edge renewable energysource. Congo Basin countries should seize technicalbreakthroughs and climate nance opportunities to putthis energy resource on a more modern and efcient

footing. Optimize the fuelwood/charcoal value chain.

Formalizing the sector would break the oligopolisticstructure of the value chain and create a moretransparent marketplace. The economic value of theresources would thus be better reected in the pricingstructure and appropriate incentives could be established.Such formalization should be supported by the revision

and modernization of the regulatory framework. To doso, the Congo Basin countries would have to understandthe political economy of the fuelwood/charcoal valuechain. A multi-stakeholder dialogue would be critical tohelp overcome difcult trade-offs between sustainingrural livelihoods based on informal activities and enforcingproduction standards and trade restrictions that wouldcome with the formalization of the sector.

Diversify supplies. The charcoal value chain in theCongo Basin currently relies exclusively on naturalforests. Although natural forests are expected tocontinue supplying much of the raw material forcharcoal production, they will be unable to meet growingdemand in a sustainable manner. Policy-makers shouldconsider diversifying the sources of wood, by increasingsustainable wood supply through tree plantations andagroforestry, and maximizing the potential supply fromnatural forests, with special attention to timber wastemanagement.

Foster community involvement through devolutionof rights and capacity building. Community-basedwoodfuel production schemes in Niger, Senegal,Rwanda and Madagascar have shown promising results

when long-term rights to forest land and devolution ofmanagement have motivated communities to participatein woodfuel production. Pilots have been launched inthe Congo Basin (Batk plantations) and could bereplicated.

Respond to growing urban needs in terms of bothfood and energy. Deforestation and forest degradationmostly occur around urban centers in the Congo Basin

countries, as a result of ad hoc agricultural expansionto respond to rising demand for food and energy.An integrated, multi-use approach to meeting urbanneeds would address the various driving forces offorest degradation. If well organized, it could not onlysecure the food and energy needs for a growing urbanpopulation, but could also provide sustainable solutionsto unemployment and waste management.



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TR AN SPORTAT ION

Better plan to minimize adverse impacts Improve transportation planning at local, national and

regional levels.

Locally: Areas that are directly served by improvedtransportation facilities will become more competitive for

various economic activitiessuch as agricultural expansionincluding palm oil plantations. Local participation intransportation planning will help ensure that economicopportunities are maximized. Mitigation measures atthe local level may include clarifying land tenure orintegrating the transportation projects into a broaderlocal development plan. Such plans may include theprotection of forest banks along roads, rivers, or railways

to avoid unplanned deforestation. Dened up front and ina participatory manner, these restrictions would get morebacking from the different stakeholders.

Nationally and regionally: The corridor approach showsthat improving transportation services (for example freightmanagement in harbors) or infrastructure (facilitating riveror rail transportation) may have a wider macro-economic

impact at the regional level. Planning at the national andregional levels, through a corridor approach could helpidentify adequate mitigation measures, such as zoningreforms (establishing permanent forest areas), lawenforcement (ensuring the respect of zoning decisions),land tenure clarication, and controlling the expansion ofagriculture.

Foster multi-modal transport networks. As countriesplan for transport development, it is important that theyconsider the pros and cons of roads and alternativetransport modes such as navigable waterways andrailroads, in terms not only of economic returns but alsoof environmental impacts. For instance, with more than25,000 kilometers of navigable network, the CongoBasin could benet from a potentially highly competitivewaterway system.

Properly assess the impacts of transportationinvestments before they occur. Transportationdevelopment (be it new infrastructure or rehabilitation ofexisting assets) will re-shape the economic prole of theareas served by transportation and increase pressure onforest resources. Currently, most environmental impact

studies or safeguard reviews fail to fully capture the long-term indirect effects on deforestation. New assessmentmethods, based on economic prospective analysis,could help prioritize infrastructure investments with lowforeseen impacts on forests.



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LOGGING

Expand sustainable forest management to theinformal sector

Pursue progress on sustainable forest managementin commercial logging concessions. Although theCongo Basin already has vast concession areas under

management plans, further progress can be madethrough ensuring adequate implementation; adjustingSFM standards and criteria to reect climate change andadvances in reduced-impact logging techniques; movingaway from single-use, timber-oriented managementmodels; encouraging certication schemes; andsupporting the FLEG-T process.

Formalize the informal timber sector. To ensure a

sustainable supply of timber for domestic markets andspread SFM principles to the domestic timber market,numerous small and medium forest enterprises willneed to be supported by appropriate regulations. Forthe fuelwood/charcoal value chain, such aformalizationwould rely on an in-depth understanding of the politicaleconomy of the sector and would require an opendialogue with various stakeholders. In addition, domestic

and regional timber markets will have to be betterunderstood to help decision makers respond to marketopportunities without jeopardizing natural forest assets.

Modernize processing capacities to set up anefcient timber value chain in the Congo Basin withless wastage and more domestic value added. Thedevelopment of the secondary and tertiary processingindustry would allow Congo Basin countries to use

secondary tree species to respond to domestic growingneeds.

Foster the involvement of communities in forestmanagement. Although the concept of communityforestry has been embraced by most Congo Basincountries and entered their legal framework, shortfallssuch as time-bound management contracts continue toconstrain effective community forest management ofstate-owned forests. Revisiting the concept and clarifyingcommunity rights over forests could provide a windowof opportunity to revitalize The implementation ofcommunity forestry on the ground.



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MINING

Set high standard goals for environmentalmanagement

Properly assess and monitor impacts of miningactivities. Proper environmental impact assessments andsocial impact assessments have to be prepared for all

stages of mining operations (from exploration to mineclosure); management plans also need to be of goodquality and their implementation regularly monitored tomitigate the associated risks.

Learn from international best practices and fosterrisk mitigation. If mining is to result in minimal negativeimpacts on the forests of the Congo Basin, companieswill need to follow best international practices and

standards designed to meet the mitigation hierarchy(AvoidMinimizeRestoreCompensate). Internationalstandards for responsible mining have been developedby various organizations, including the InternationalCouncil on Mining and Metals, the Responsible JewelryCouncil, the International Finance Corporation, and theInitiative for Responsible Mining Assurance. Lessonscan be learned from these innovative approaches as

governments adjust their national regulations on miningactivities and their environmental monitoring andmanagement.

Upgrade the artisanal and small-scale mining sector. Efforts should focus on putting small-scale miners on amore secure footing and adjusting regulatory frameworksso that they can better respond to the specic needs ofthis segment of the mining sector. Governments should

facilitate the use of environmentally-friendly technologiesand encourage the development of a sustainable supplychain. The Alliance for Responsible Mining has developeda certication system for small-scale mining cooperativesthat includes consideration of both environmental andsocial concerns. The Green Gold approach (discussed inbox 6) is another example.

Promote innovative mechanisms to offset negativeimpacts of mining operations. Conservation groupshave advocated for biodiversity offsets for extractiveprojects for at least a decade. Financial instruments, suchas nancial guarantees, could also be options to mitigateadverse impacts, particularly to ensure mine reclamationand restoration at the closure of mining sites.



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Angelsen, A. (ed.) 2008. Moving Ahead with REDD+: Issues,options and implications. Bogor, Indonesia: Center forInternational Forestry Research.

African Development Bank. 2011.Dveloppement des infrastructures au Congo: Contraintes et priorits moyen terme. Dpartement rgional centre (OCRE).Tunis, Tunisia: African Development Bank.

Chupezi, T.J., V. Ingram, and J. Schure. 2009. Study onartisanal gold and diamond mining on livelihoodsand the environment in the Sangha Tri-National Park

landscape, Congo Basin. Yaounde, Cameroon: Centerfor International Forestry Research/International Unionfor Conservation of Nature.

Deininger, K. and D. Byerlee, with J. Lindsay, A. Norton, H.Selod, and M. Stickler. 2011.Rising Global Interest

in Farmland: Can It Yield Sustainable and EquitableBenets?Washington, DC: World Bank.

de Wasseige, C., D. Devers, P. de Marcken, R. Ebaa Atyi, andP. Mayaux. 2009. The Forests of the Congo BasinStateof the Forests 2008 . Luxembourg: Publications Ofce of

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Mayaux, B. Descle, R. Nasi, A. Billand, P. Defourny, andR. Ebaa Atyi. 2012.The Forests of the Congo Basin

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Hansen, M., S. Stehman, P. Potapov, T. Loveland, J.Townshend, R. Defries, K. Pittman, B. Arunarwati, F.Stolle, M. Steininger, M. Carroll, and C. DiMiceli. 2008.Humid Tropical Forest Clearing from 2000 to 2005Quantied by Using Multitemporal and MultiresolutionRemotely Sensed Data.Proceedings of the National

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Marien, J-N. 2009. Peri-Urban Forests and Wood Energy:What Are the Perspectives for Central Africa? InTheForests of the Congo BasinState of the Forest 2008,ed. by C. de Wasseige et al. Luxembourg: PublicationsOfce of the European Union.

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SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDED NO-REGRETS ACTIONS

Sector Recommendations

Cross-cuttingIssues

Invest in participatory land use planningImprove land tenure schemesStrengthen institutions

Agriculture Prioritize agricultural expansion on non-forested areas

Empower smallholder farmersReinvigorate R&D towards sustainable productivity increasePromote a sustainable large-scale agribusiness industryFoster win-win partnerships between large-scale operators and smallholders

Wood-BasedBiomassEnergy

Put woodfuel energy higher on the political agendaOptimize the fuelwood/charcoal value chainDiversify suppliesFoster community involvement through devolution of rights and capacity building

Respond to growing urban needs in terms of both food and energy

Transportation Improve transportation planning at local, national, and regional levelsFoster multi-modal transport networksProperly assess the impacts of transportation investments before they occur

Logging Pursue progress on sustainable forest managementFormalize the informal timber sectorModernize processing capacitiesFoster the involvement of communities in forest management

Mining Properly assess and monitor impacts of mining activitiesLearn from international best practices and foster risk mitigationUpgrade the artisanal and small-scale mining sectorPromote innovative mechanisms to offset negative impacts of mining operations


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Deforestation rates in the Congo Basin are among the lowest in the tropicalrainforest belt and are signicantly below rates in most other African regions.However, this situation is projected to change. Local and regional development,population increases and global demand for commodities are likely to increasedeforestation and forest degradation in the Congo Basin.

The countries of the Congo Basin face the dual challenge of developing localeconomies and reducing poverty while limiting the negative impact of growth onthe regions natural capital, and forests in particular.

Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling economic growth andforest protection analyzes the current and future pressures exerted by differentsectors of the economy on Congo Basin forests, and highlights policy options tolimit deforestation while pursuing inclusive green growth.

This study shows that a transition to a low and degraded forest cover is

possible, but not a fatality. We have tools at our disposal to act in a targeted,forest-friendly way, by reconciling economic growth and forest preservation. Now

is the time to make a strong stand in favor of sustainable development. Mr. Raymond Mbitikon, Executive Secretary, COMIFAC

Documents

DeforestationTrendsCongoBasin ExecSumm English