Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services - SCAF and Support... · • OSCAM provides a common baseline for reconciliation purposes. It is a way of sharing and understanding costs, with

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© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2011

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Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services Delivering essential, independent, expert services to Defence Acquisition

Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services

Concept

Assessment

Demonstration

Manufacture

In-service

Disposal

OSCAM Presentation to April 2011 SCAF WorkshopDr Stephen Curram and Dale Shermon

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0. Agenda

1. What is OSCAM?

2. What is System Dynamics?

3. OSCAM Development

4. Using OSCAM

5. Applications of OSCAM

6. Key Success factors

JSF engine configuration mock-up

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1. Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services


In-service

In-Service - Change response during the life of the solution

“by managing the on-going configuration of requirements, including safety and environmental advice and support, and evaluating change options, including cost and risk analysis”

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1. In-Service Cost and Risk Analysis

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1. In-Service Cost and Risk Analysis

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1. OSCAM – the Operating and Support Cost Analysis Mode l

• Joint UK/US program to develop a family of tools used for analysis of equipment in-service support costs

• The UK Suite of Models:

• OSCAM Ship

• OSCAM Shipboard System

• OSCAM Land

• The US Suite of Models:

• OSCAM Ship v8.0

• OSCAM Air v3.0

• OSCAM EFV

• OSCAM USAF

• OSCAM JSF

• OSCAM Shipboard System v7.0

• The OSCAM models are built using System Dynamics Theory

20112005 20061996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Ship & System NCCA MOD

ADGE MOD

Land MOD

Air NCCA / NAVAIR

USAF C-17 SPO

EFV DRPM EFV

FASH MOD

2007 2008 2009 2010

JSF JSFPO

Ship v8 NCCA

20112005 20061996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Ship & System NCCA MOD

ADGE MOD

Land MOD

Air NCCA / NAVAIR

USAF C-17 SPO

EFV DRPM EFV

FASH MOD

2007 2008 2009 2010

JSF JSFPO

Ship v8 NCCA

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2. What is System Dynamics?

• System Dynamics models the relationships, behaviors, and influences of entities in the system being studied

• The OSCAM models use System Dynamics to model each month of the life cycle of the platform

• This provides a more powerful technique than traditional methods like Excel based models

• System Dynamics promotes an understanding of O&S processes, O&S costs, and the interdependencies that exist

• Example:

• Drivers for oil production

OILPRODUCTION

OILIN GROUND

INVESTMENTIN EXPLORATION

& NEW OIL WELLS

PROFITS

OILPRICE

COST OF PRODUCTION& EXPLORATION

EXPLORATION & PRODUCTIONTECHNOLOGY

+

+

+

++

+

–

–

–

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Influence diagrams developed in a

workshop environment using customer subject matter experts to

ensure that the real world is modelled

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Scheduled Base maintenance

LC1_CatsTraps1000

oneM

oneM

Aircraft_in_op_env

scheduled_cats_traps_factor

SB1_cats_traps_Scheduled_action_factor

Aircraft_Average_Age

Aircraft_in_op_env

cat_traps_aircraft_per_1000fh

harshness_impact_on_aircraft

Average_cat_traps

scheduled_harshness_factor

Sched_base_Labor_hours_per_month

SB1_labor_hours_per_action

Rate_incur_sched_cunsumables_cost

Out_Ann_Sched_maint_cons_Costrte_clr_sched_Consumables_Cost

Cum_sched_Consumables_Cost

SB1_Consumables_cost_per_action

SB1_percentage_unsched_actions_arising

number_unsched_actions_arising

Out_Ann_Support_Equip_Maint_Cost

Rate_Clr_Supp_Equip_Maint_Cost

Cum_Supp_Equip_Maint_Costs

SB1_Supp_Equip_Maint_Cost_per_year

Demand_Aircraft_in_op_env

Quantity_of_systems_in_service

Rate_Incur_Supp_Equip_Maint_Cost

SB1_age_related_Scheduled_action_factor Rate_sched_base_maint_actions

Total_Flying_rate

LC1_Aircraft_Lifetime

LC1_Harshness_Scheduled_Factor

scheduled_Age_Factor

Total_Cum_Supp_Equip_Maint_Cost

Total_Cum_sched_Consumables_CostSB1_Scheduled_Actions_per_1000hrs

Rate_sched_actions_baseline

Influence diagrams interpreted into software

code for example PowerSim

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3. Typical Structure of an OSCAM Model

PROGRAM PROFILE

Introduction DisposalLifecycle

OPERATIONS

Fuel

PublicationsSupplies

Ordnance

Purchased Services

PERSONNEL

Other Unit Level Personnel

Crew

TRAINING

Crew

Other Unit Level Personnel

Class

DEPOT MAINTENANCE

OtherContinuous Maintenance

UnscheduledScheduled

O/I MAINTENANCE

O-Level

Aging

I-Level

INDIRECT

Installation Support

Indirect Personnel

OTHER

Software Maintenance

ETS

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4. OSCAM ‘Walkthrough’

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Deployment of equipment over the

life cycle within different categories

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Population of parameters with

deviation from default data set identified

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Comprehensive help system to aid learning and accelerate deployment of model including details of

influence diagrams

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Ability to consider complex influences

including obsolescence

effects

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Unique compiled simulation software

to accelerate analysis

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Graphical representation of

the results for ease of

interpretation

Cost Breakdown structure

for all cost and non-

cost results through life

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Sensitivity analysis of selected input parameters with

defaults values for the change

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Graphical representation of

sensitivity analysis

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Uncertainty analysis of selected input parameters with

defaults minimum and maximum values

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S-curve graphical representation of

uncertainty analysis

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4. How is OSCAM different?

• OSCAM models are a time based simulation which makes it more powerful than Excel based models

• OSCAM can discretely model depot maintenance periods and account for Obsolescence, for example, because of the time based approach

• Model openness

• OSCAM is not a black box model

• OSCAM users have complete insight into the equations and relationships that are used via the built-in help functions and model structure document

• The model facilitates understanding of O&S processes, O&S costs, and the interdependencies that exist

SD Conference 2011UNCLASS DIST A

Concept Assessment Demonstration Manufacture In-service Disposal

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4. How is OSCAM different?

• Powerful user interface

• Easy handling of scenario data with audit trail

• Powerful analytical tools for comparing results and performing uncertainty analysis

• Interactive influence diagrams provide insight of relationships and structure in the model

• Historical databases

• For US users VAMOSC based historical datasets are provided with the OSCAM Ship, OSCAM Sys, and OSCAM Air models. Historical datasets are prepared for most platforms in the VAMOSC database

• Supports a team approach

• OSCAM encourages a team approach; it can be used throughout the life cycle by logisticians, cost analysts, engineers, etc., because the results offer both cost and non-cost outputs



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5. Applications of OSCAM

Source Selection

Analysis of Alternatives

Milestone Estimates

Breakeven Analysis

Budgeting

Parametric Cost Tool (PCT)

Data Management Tool (DMT)

Contract Usage



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5. Breakeven Analysis Example

• Model: OSCAM Ship

• A study required the breakeven point between two options to be determined based on a changing cost per barrel of fuel

• Advantage of Using OSCAM:

• Since OSCAM results show expected expenditures year by year, it was easy to use this information, coupled with the acquisition information to find year where option A became cheaper than option B for the fuel price in the baseline estimate

• Once the baseline was established, re-running the simulation for multiple fuel prices to see the impact on the breakeven point took only seconds to complete


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5. OSCAM Applications

• Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) O&S Estimates

• The JSF Program Office validated OSCAM as the official O&S tool to support cost estimates for the production, sustainment and follow-on development of aircraft.

• OSCAM provides a common baseline for reconciliation purposes. It is a way of sharing and understanding costs, with partner-specific estimates.

• Cost estimators from each partner country are currently being trained in the use of OSCAM JSF.

• Source selection Dry Cargo Ship

• A Cargo ship program office mandated that OSCAM form the basis for its O&S estimate and each of the bidder’s O&S estimates. OSCAM was used to develop and maintain the program office’s cost estimate, validate each of the cost proposals, compare proposals and to perform sensitivity analysis.

• OSCAM provided an extremely rapid method for the source selection team to analyze the proposals

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6. Key Success Factors

• OSCAM is in widespread use across the US Navy for O&S cost analysis.

• Key reasons for this are:

• OSCAM provides a common structure for developing cost estimates that conforms with DoD policies and allows for easy handover between analysts

• OSCAM provides flexibility in the level of detail used, allowing the detail of the analysis to grow as the program matures

• OSCAM is designed to work with the data that is routinely collected by the US Navy, providing the analyst with a wealth of actual and analogous data

• OSCAM is designed to reflect the approach used by cost analysts and provides them with enough information to support and defend their estimates

• The user interface allows the system dynamics model to be used without being an expert in system dynamics and has a wealth of analytical tools


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Delivering essential, independent, expert services to Defence Acquisition



Concept

Assessment

Demonstration

Manufacture

In-service

Disposal

Documents

Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services - SCAF and Support... · • OSCAM provides a common baseline for reconciliation purposes. It is a way of sharing and understanding costs, with