Default Expectations for theHolocene from an Energy

Balance Model

Change In solar insolation 9k-present

Change In solar insolation 6k-present

Change in annual mean insoltionOnly obliquity matters

Annual mean energy balance model- expected temp change (6k-0)

Part of the would be change is damped by changes in heat flux-

Annual temperature changeIf heat flux doesn’t change

Seasonal energy balance model-Seasonal temperature change (6k-0)

LAND

Seasonal energy balance model-Annual temperature change (6k-0)

Monsoons

• Claim: enhanced magnitude of summer insolation during the holocene forced stronger monsoons

Assumption – summer insolation was stronger during holcene

COUNTERCLAIM- it’s just (mostly) a phase shift- JJA insolation is the worst possible proxy for magnitude of seasonal insolation

Seasonal Insolation 6k and present 30 N

Have I screwed something up?• Very possibly, but I can come close to getting

the JJA curve from my script

Note: I’ve used a three point interpolation of orbital parameters [-9 -6 0] which probablyDoes a bad job between -6 and 0

Can we define a better summer insolation index?

• Integrate the seasonal cycle of insolation for days where the insolation is above a threshold (400 W/m^2)