Decision MakingDecision Making

Features and Classes of Decision MakingFeatures and Classes of Decision Making

• Decisions typically represent a “many-Decisions typically represent a “many-to-one” mapping of information to to-one” mapping of information to responses.responses.

• The complexity of the choices can be The complexity of the choices can be variedvaried– go – no gogo – no go– multiple choice responsemultiple choice response

Features of Decision Making: UncertaintyFeatures of Decision Making: Uncertainty

• Uncertainty of the Uncertainty of the consequencesconsequences..

• A result of the A result of the probabilisticprobabilistic nature of nature of the world – in which choices will lead to the world – in which choices will lead to outcomes.outcomes.

• Always an element of “Always an element of “riskrisk””

Features of Decision Making: Features of Decision Making: Familiarity and ExpertiseFamiliarity and Expertise

• Decision making between “Decision making between “ExpertsExperts” ” and “and “NovicesNovices””

• Levels of Levels of ExperienceExperience and and TrainingTraining

• Remember – experience might affect Remember – experience might affect the speed at which a decision is made – the speed at which a decision is made – not necessarily whether it was a good not necessarily whether it was a good one or not.one or not.

Features of Decision Making: TimeFeatures of Decision Making: Time

• Time plays at least two important Time plays at least two important roles in influencing the decision roles in influencing the decision making process:making process:

1.1. One shot decision vs an evolving One shot decision vs an evolving decisiondecision

• Purchasing an objectPurchasing an object

2.2. Time Pressure – element forcing time-Time Pressure – element forcing time-lines of a decisionlines of a decision

• Defusing a bomb!Defusing a bomb!

Classes of Decision MakingClasses of Decision Making

• Cognitive or Information ProcessingCognitive or Information Processing– Limitations in human attention, working Limitations in human attention, working

memory, strategy, heuristics – memory, strategy, heuristics – work well work well together most timestogether most times

• Naturalistic Decision MakingNaturalistic Decision Making– How people make decisions outside the How people make decisions outside the

laboratory environmentlaboratory environment– Aspects of expertise, complexityAspects of expertise, complexity

Characteristics ofCharacteristics ofDecision MakingDecision Making

1.1. Expected ValueExpected Valuei.i. The optimum decision would produce The optimum decision would produce

the maximum value if repeated the maximum value if repeated numerous times.numerous times.

ii.ii. Often the “value” is not universally Often the “value” is not universally agreed upon (personal worth or agreed upon (personal worth or experience)experience)

iii.iii. Is the value Is the value minimizingminimizing the expected the expected lossloss or or maximizingmaximizing the expected the expected gaingain

Characteristics ofCharacteristics ofDecision MakingDecision Making

2.2. Good decisions produce good Good decisions produce good outcomesoutcomes

i.i. Sometimes it is only hindsight that let’s Sometimes it is only hindsight that let’s us know whether the decision produced us know whether the decision produced the desirable resultsthe desirable results

Characteristics ofCharacteristics ofDecision MakingDecision Making

3.3. Good decisions are made by Good decisions are made by “experts”“experts”

i.i. Sometimes novices can make better Sometimes novices can make better decisions – an “expert” decided to go on decisions – an “expert” decided to go on the Challenger launch.the Challenger launch.

Evidence AccumulationEvidence Accumulation

• Cue DiagnosticityCue Diagnosticity– How much evidence a cue offersHow much evidence a cue offers

• See rain drops you know it is rainingSee rain drops you know it is raining• Dark clouds on the horizon – maybe it will rainDark clouds on the horizon – maybe it will rain

• Cue Reliability or CredibilityCue Reliability or Credibility– The likelihood a physical cue can be believedThe likelihood a physical cue can be believed

• Peter and the WolfPeter and the Wolf

• Physical Features of the CuePhysical Features of the Cue– Is it conspicuousIs it conspicuous– How much perceptual attention does it attainHow much perceptual attention does it attain

Attention and Cue IntegrationAttention and Cue Integration

• Information Cues are MISSINGInformation Cues are MISSING– Not enough information on hand to make an accurate Not enough information on hand to make an accurate

decisiondecision

• Cues are Numerous: Information OverloadCues are Numerous: Information Overload– Less than perfect information valueLess than perfect information value– Lack of expertiseLack of expertise

• Cues are Differentially SalientCues are Differentially Salient– Attention-attracting properties and subsequent meaningAttention-attracting properties and subsequent meaning

• Processed Cues are Not Differentially WeightedProcessed Cues are Not Differentially Weighted– Modulate the amount of weight given to a cueModulate the amount of weight given to a cue

Belief Changes Over TimeBelief Changes Over Time

• Overconfidence BiasOverconfidence Bias– The decision to seek more information before making a The decision to seek more information before making a

decision (decision within a decision) occurs with levels of decision (decision within a decision) occurs with levels of uncertainty. However, research indicates that people are uncertainty. However, research indicates that people are overconfident in their state-of-knowledge or bias.overconfident in their state-of-knowledge or bias.

– Prematurely close the search for evidence.Prematurely close the search for evidence.

• Anchoring HeuristicAnchoring Heuristic– Humans have a tendency to bias beliefs in favour of the Humans have a tendency to bias beliefs in favour of the

initially chosen hypothesis – mental anchor – fixed initially chosen hypothesis – mental anchor – fixed paradigm.paradigm.

• The Confirmation BiasThe Confirmation Bias– A tendency for people to seek information and cues that A tendency for people to seek information and cues that

CONFIRM the tentatively held hypothesis or belief.CONFIRM the tentatively held hypothesis or belief.

StressStress

• STRESSSTRESS and and ERRORSERRORS are linked in a are linked in a closed loop system…closed loop system…

• When errors are made (and we become When errors are made (and we become aware of them) stress occurs; and aware of them) stress occurs; and when stress is present, errors occur.when stress is present, errors occur.

* An experience whose essence is arrived through the analysis of living * An experience whose essence is arrived through the analysis of living experience in disregard of scientific knowledge; something known through sense experience in disregard of scientific knowledge; something known through sense

perception rather than by thought or intuition.perception rather than by thought or intuition.

*

Internal

External

Stress Component EffectStress Component Effect

• One of the best ways of integrating the One of the best ways of integrating the effects of stress on performance is to effects of stress on performance is to consider their influence on the consider their influence on the information information processing component.processing component.

• Recall, what are some of the processing Recall, what are some of the processing components:components:– Selective AttentionSelective Attention– Working MemoryWorking Memory– Response ChoiceResponse Choice– Dependence of task on particular componentsDependence of task on particular components

ArousalArousalStressors can mediate the sympathetic nervous systemStressors can mediate the sympathetic nervous system

Can use physiological responses as an “indirect” measure of stress

Selective Attention: NarrowingSelective Attention: Narrowing

• As discussed, changes in human selective and focused As discussed, changes in human selective and focused attention mediate many stress effects.attention mediate many stress effects.

• One of the most important and robust appears to be an One of the most important and robust appears to be an increased selectivity or “attentional narrowing” that results increased selectivity or “attentional narrowing” that results from a wide variety of different stressors.from a wide variety of different stressors.

• TunnelingTunneling is not simply defined by a reduction of the spatial is not simply defined by a reduction of the spatial area of the attention spotlight but can be caused by a area of the attention spotlight but can be caused by a filtering filtering effect from operator priorityeffect from operator priority..

• Sometime this narrowing can improve performance, but often Sometime this narrowing can improve performance, but often degrades response as only degrades response as only central tasks are attended to and central tasks are attended to and peripheral events can be ignored.peripheral events can be ignored.

Selective Attention: DistractionSelective Attention: Distraction

• Many stressors impose a distraction Many stressors impose a distraction and this divert selective attention away and this divert selective attention away from task-relevant processing.from task-relevant processing.

• Loud or intermittent noises will serve Loud or intermittent noises will serve as a source of distraction.as a source of distraction.

Working-Memory LossWorking-Memory Loss

• Noise, danger, anxiety will all degrade Noise, danger, anxiety will all degrade working-memory capacity.working-memory capacity.

• There is a disruption of the “inner speech” There is a disruption of the “inner speech” necessary to carry out rehearsal.necessary to carry out rehearsal.

• These effects of these cues are then These effects of these cues are then degraded as well.degraded as well.

• Will effect how new experiences are Will effect how new experiences are “encoded” into long-term memory.“encoded” into long-term memory.

Yerkes Dodson LawYerkes Dodson Law

PerseverationPerseveration

• High levels of stress will cause people to High levels of stress will cause people to persevere or continue with a given action or persevere or continue with a given action or plan.plan.

• This leads to trying to repeat the This leads to trying to repeat the unsuccessful solution (the very failure which unsuccessful solution (the very failure which might be creating the stress on the operator).might be creating the stress on the operator).

• Familiar behaviour is little hampered but Familiar behaviour is little hampered but more novel behaviour becomes disrupted.more novel behaviour becomes disrupted.

Strategic ControlStrategic Control

• Recruitment of More ResourcesRecruitment of More Resources– ““try harder”try harder”– Risks are increased fatigue then subsequent problemsRisks are increased fatigue then subsequent problems

• Remove the StressorRemove the Stressor– Turn off the alarmsTurn off the alarms– Eliminate the “time pressure”Eliminate the “time pressure”

• Change the Goals of the TaskChange the Goals of the Task– Are multiple options availableAre multiple options available

• Do NothingDo Nothing– Do nothing to adjust their processing strategy allowing the Do nothing to adjust their processing strategy allowing the

stress effects to influence the performance in a more stress effects to influence the performance in a more predictable manner.predictable manner.

Categories of Human ErrorCategories of Human Error

MistakesMistakes

• Knowledge-based mistakesKnowledge-based mistakes– Incorrect plans of action are arrived at because of a failure Incorrect plans of action are arrived at because of a failure

to understand the situation.to understand the situation.• Biases and Cognitive LimitsBiases and Cognitive Limits• Level of ExpertiseLevel of Expertise

• Rule-based mistakesRule-based mistakes– Occur when operators are somewhat more sure of their Occur when operators are somewhat more sure of their

ground so they invoke a rule (ground so they invoke a rule (if-then logicif-then logic).).– Good rule is misappliedGood rule is misapplied– Choice of rule is guided by frequency and reinforcementChoice of rule is guided by frequency and reinforcement– Compared to knowledge-based mistakes, rule-based Compared to knowledge-based mistakes, rule-based

mistakes are performed with much more confidencemistakes are performed with much more confidence

SlipsSlips

• In contrast to mistakes, in which the In contrast to mistakes, in which the intended action is wrong, slips are intended action is wrong, slips are errors in which the right intention is errors in which the right intention is INCORRECTLY carried out.INCORRECTLY carried out.– Pouring orange juice on your cereal Pouring orange juice on your cereal

instead of milk because you were busy instead of milk because you were busy reading the paper.reading the paper.

LapsesLapses

• Represents the failure to carry out any Represents the failure to carry out any action at all.action at all.

• ForgetfulnessForgetfulness

• Omission to carry out all the steps due Omission to carry out all the steps due to some interruption during routine.to some interruption during routine.

Mode ErrorsMode Errors

• When a particular action that is highly appropriate in When a particular action that is highly appropriate in one mode of operation is performed in a different, one mode of operation is performed in a different, inappropriate mode because the operator has not inappropriate mode because the operator has not correctly remembered the appropriate context.correctly remembered the appropriate context.

• Generally a consequence of highly automated Generally a consequence of highly automated performance or of high workload.performance or of high workload.

• Thinking you are in a reverse gear when you are in a Thinking you are in a reverse gear when you are in a forward gear and then stepping on the accelerator.forward gear and then stepping on the accelerator.