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Presentation:
Prof. Dr. Manfred FischedickWuppertal Institut
February 2018
Decarbonizing industrial productionSelected examples from a complex process
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Contribution of the industry sector to global greenhouse gas emissions and related targets to achieve Paris Agreement
13 Februar 2018 2
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SourceIPCC2014
3Source: IPCC 201413Februar2018
Sector contribution to greenhouse gas emissions – industry sector responsible for around 32% of global GHG emissions Consideration of direct and indirect CO2 emissions necessary
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Sector contribution to greenhouse gas emissions
13Februar2018 Source: IPCC 2014 4
Industry direct emission trends by region
Increasing emissions in Asia and decreasing in OECD triggered by increasing local product demand and (!) trade of products (China/Asia developed more and more as work bench for OECD countries)
GHG emissions are driven by economic growth and related product demand
World production of minerals and manufactured products (particularly cement and iron ore) grew steadily and caused increase of GHG emissions
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Industry direct emission trends by sub-sector Industry sector emissions dominated by three sub-sectors: Metals + chemicals + cement industries responsible for ~50% of industry emissions
13Februar2018 Source: IPCC 2014 5
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Five main options for reducing GHG emissions in the industry sector – its more than pure technological options
13 Februar 2018 6
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Energy supply and industrial production is no self purpose – how to find the main driver Sankey diagramm shows how service demand triggers industrial activities and related GHG emissions
Source: IPCC 2014 713 Februar 2018
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GHG mitigation options in the industry sector exist along the whole value chain and comprise more than pure technological options From energy – emissions – material and product-service efficiency to SCP
813Februar2018 Source: IPCC 2014
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(1)Energyefficiency(e.g.,throughfurnaceinsulaDon,processcoupling,orincreasedmaterialrecycling);(2)Emissionsefficiency(e.g.,fromswitchingtonon-fossilfuelelectricitysupply,orapplyingCCStocementkilns);(3)Materialefficiency
(3a)Materialefficiencyinmanufacturing(e.g.,throughreducingyieldlossesinblankingandstampingsheetmetalorre-usingoldstructuralsteelwithoutmelDng);(3b)Materialefficiencyinproductdesign(e.g.,throughextendedproductlifeorde-materializaDon–productdesign);
(4)Product-Serviceefficiency(e.g.,throughcarsharing,orhigherbuildingoccupancy);(5)ServicedemandreducDon(e.g.,lessindividualmobilityswitchingfromprivatetopublictransport,sustainableconsumpDonpaQerns)
913Februar2018
GHG mitigation options in the industry sector exist along the whole value chain and comprises more than pure technological options From energy – emissions – material and product-service efficiency to SCP
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Industry can also contribute to GHG mitigation based on their productsProducts from material processing industries lead to reduction of GHG emissions in the end-use sectors (selected examples for scope 4 emission bonus)
13 Februar 2018 10
• (Green)Tyreswithreducedrollingresistancebasedonmoderncomponentsfromthechemicalindustry
• InsulaDonmaterialstoreduceheaDngandcoolingdemand
• LowweightmaterialsoutoffibrecompositeoraluminiumtoreducefuelconsumpDonofvehicles
• Steelasbasiccomponentforwindmills• etc.
Source: Haute Innovation 2017
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What role the different GHG mitigation options could play in the future on the way to achieve 2°C target
13 Februar 2018 11
page Wuppertal Institute1213Februar2018 Source: IEA ETP 2017
What role the different GHG mitigation options could play in the future on the way to achieve 2°C target Beyond 2°C Scenario from the International Energy Agency (B2DS)
The2°CScenario(2DS)andtheBeyond2°CScenario(B2DS)eachsetsoutarapiddecarbonisaDonpathwayinlinewithinternaDonalpolicygoals.The2DShasbeenthemainclimatescenariointheETPseriesformanyyears,andithasbeenwidelyusedbypolicymakersandbusinessstakeholderstoassesstheirclimatestrategies.ForthefirstDme,theB2DSlooksathowfarknowncleanenergytechnologiescouldgoifpushedtotheirpracDcallimits,inlinewithcountries’moreambiDousaspiraDonsintheParisAgreement.
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What role the different GHG mitigation options could play in the future on the way to achieve 2°C target Beyond 2°C Scenario (B2DS) requires implementation of full range of mitigation options (as 2DS does)
1313Februar2018 Source: IEA ETP 2017
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 9
M i t igat ion wedges compar ing RTS and B2DS(Que l le : IEA 2017)
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• Fromashortandmid-termperspec:veenergyefficiencyandbehaviourchangecouldsignificantlycontributetoGHGmi:ga:on– Theenergyintensityoftheindustrysectorcouldbedirectlyreducedbyupto
approximately25%comparedtothecurrentlevelthroughthewide-scaledeploymentofbestavailabletechnologies,upgrading/replacement,parDcularlyincountrieswherethesearenotinpracDceandinnon-energyintensiveindustries
– AddiDonalenergyintensityreducDonsofuptoapproximately20%maypotenDallyberealizedthroughinnovaDon
• Inthelong-termashiEtolow-carbonelectricity,radicalproductinnova:ons(e.g.alterna:vestocement)andprocessinnova:on(e.g.hydrogenbasedsteelmaking),orCCS(formi:ga:ngi.a.processemissions)couldcontributetosignificant(absolute)GHGemissionsreduc:ons Innova:onisabsolutelyessen:altoachieveglobaltargets
Due to intensive past efforts remaining energy efficiency potential is rather limited in the industry sector (e.g. steel industry) Decarbonization entails new approaches and more radical innovations
13Februar2018
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Innovation in industry means amongst others broad scale electrificationExample: Electrification “Roadmap” for the chemical industry
Source:TNO/ECN(2016) 1513 Februar 2018
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Innovation in industry means to go beyond current technologies and structures, three areas must be incorporated
16Source:ECF2018
Processtechnologiesandbreakthrough• BroadshiEtoelectricityforenergyandforhydrogenproducDon(e.g.,orereducDon)
• New,non-fossilfeedstocks(CO2,bio)• Novelmaterials(e.g.,cement)andsubsDtuDon
Circularityanddemandside• High-qualitymaterialsrecycling(plasDcs,steel,aluminium)tosubsDtuteforvirginproducDon
• Increasedmaterialsproduc:vityofkeyvaluechains(transport,buildings,packaging,etc.)throughsharing,longevity,lightweighDng,etc.
Carbonnega:vetechnologies• Carboncaptureandstorage(CCS)oruDlisaDon(CCU)ofindustrialCO2
• ProcesschangestofacilitateCCS(e.g,.Hisarnasteel)
• Infrastructurefortransportandstorage
13 Februar 2018
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Innovation in industry means to go beyond current technologies and structuresInnovation needed from a linear towards a circular economy
17
Defini:onCircularEconomyfromtheCEAP„ThetransiDontoamorecirculareconomy,wherethevalueofproducts,materialsandresourcesismaintainedintheeconomyforaslongaspossible,andthegeneraDonofwasteminimized(...)“
CircularEconomy
Lineareconomy
13 Februar 2018
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Examplesofpossibleop:ons Technologyreadinessandbarriers
Electrification and process breakthroughs – a wide portfolio of options have been mooted
• Innova:on-accelerate• Uncertainty-ulDmateusability,cost,Dmeline
• Investment-replacelargecapacity
• Keyactors-public-privatepartnership
• Energysystemrequirement-e.g.~350TWhforH2-basedsteel(or5,000TWhforCO2-basedchemicals)
• Withoutsignificantdemandsidemeasures,electricitydemandwillincreasesignificantly
Keyissues
Cement
• AdvanceduseofsubsDtutes Limitedbutrelevant(Calcineclay=promising)[scalabilitybarrier]
• Novelcements (low)marketdemand,likelylimitedapplicaDons[scalabilityandmarketbarrier]
• CCU Industrialsymbiosis,earlystagethinking
• Newconcreteformulas Needsnewmarket/demands,consumerconfidence,limitedapplicaDons[scalabilityandmarketbarrier]
• Concrete/cementrecycling RequiresnewlogisDcs,cost-compeDDvenessissues[scalabilityandmarket/logisDcbarrier]
• CCS Bankability/Businesscasedifficult[costbarrier,geographicalbarrier]
Steel
• Hydrogen(DRI) Highfuturedemandforlow-cost/greenH2[Cost&Scalabilitybarrier]
• CCS Bankabilityissues(butHIsarnawithoutCCShaslowerCAPEXandOPEX)[costbarrier]
• CCU Good(LCA-type)carbonaccounDngneededtomeasurenet-emissionreducDons[sectoralcoordinaDonbarrier,miDgaDonuncertainty]
• Electrolysis Veryearlystage,highaddiDonalelectricitydemand[technology,cost,andscalabilitybarrier]
Chemicals
• ElectrificaDon Impactonpowerdemand/efficiency[costandscalabilitybarrier]
• Hydrogen(andCCU) Highcost(CAPEX/OPEX)andfuturepowerdemand[costandscalabilitybarrier]
• Bio-basedchemicals SupplychaindevelopmentandcompeDDonwithothersectors[supplychainbarrier]
• CCUandindustrialsymbiosis NeedgoodcarbonaccounDng[sectoralcoordinaDonbarrier,miDgaDonuncertainty]
• CCS HighCAPEX,higherOPEX,infrastructureneeds[costbarrier,geographicalbarrier]
13 Februar 2018
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GHG mitigation in industry - a chance for Win-Win-Win approachThe Circular Economy provides three different types of dividends
Innovation and reduced material and energy costs can generate competitive advantages for companies and regions
ReducedconsumpDonofresourcesandrecycledwasteinproducDonreducetheenvironmentalimpactlocally
Asaresultofintegratedproductcycles,itispossibletoreducenegaDveenvironmentalimpactsonthepopulaDonanddecoupleeconomicgrowthfromtheuseofresources
Economic Dividend
Ecological Dividend
Social Dividend
1913 Februar 2018
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Long term requirements need preparatory steps - draft of strategic roadmap(s) core element of shaping the different phasesExample: “Roadmap” of EU paper and pulp industry
Source:CEPI(2017) 20
Decarbonising by 80%: moving away from a fossil-based societyQuantitatively, decarbonising by 80% compared to 1990 means that the European forest fibre and paper industry emissions would be brought down to 12 million tonnes of CO2 by 2050.
This absolute emission reduction would not account for the benefits provided by carbon sequestration in managed forests, its long-lasting storage in bio-based products that are further recycled, or the substitution of fossil-based and less climate-friendly products and materials.
Nevertheless, reducing the sector’s direct and indirect emissions so substantially (by 37 million tonnes since 2015) will require a combination of specific measures to gradually deliver results up to 2050.
Emission reduction pathways 2015-2050
Fuel switchThe European forest fibre and paper industry already uses biomass or gas-based boilers extensively and pioneered Combined Heat and Power (CHP) for its own energy production. Further conversion of industrial installations to low- to no-carbon energy sources are modelled to deliver 8 million tonnes of CO2 emissions reduction.
Emerging and breakthrough technologiesIn addition to some of the breakthrough concepts identified in the Two Team Project such as the “Deep Eutectic Solvents” technology now under development, other innovative and disruptive solutions could complement the emission reduction effort by some 5 million tonnes of CO2.
Demand-side flexibilityLeveraging its on-site cogeneration assets, the industry has the ability to engage on the energy market and adapt its energy sourcing to take hold of low prices, in particular from surpluses of intermittent renewable energy. The associated decarbonisation benefits could reach 2 million tonnes.
-7 million tonnes CO2
-8 million tonnes CO2
-2 million tonnes CO2
-5 million tonnes CO2
Energy efficiencyThe combination of process improvements, including the transition to Industry 4.0, as well as investments in state-of-the-art production technologies are estimated to lead to a reduction of 7 million tonnes of CO2 by 2050.
6
CEPI The forest fibre and paper industry in 2050
13 Februar 2018
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Long term requirements need preparatory steps - draft of strategic roadmap(s) core element of shaping the different phasesStudy on behalf of the Port of Rotterdam Authority
2121
Three potential pathways to reduce the Port of Rotterdam CO2-emissions substantialls
13 Februar 2018
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Significant reduction of GHG emissions in industry requires cross-sector approach and break through innovation through smart research cooperations
22May 2017
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Networks and clusters bringing together science and industry Cooperation across energy-intensive branches and together with academia aims for innovation dynamic and triggering new markets (CleanTechNRW)
Source:CleanTechNRW201113 Februar 2018
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Cooperative innovation approaches (clusters) Clean Tech NRW comprises partner from academia, industrial companies and SMEs
24Source:CleanTechNRW201113 Februar 2018
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Cooperative innovation approaches (clusters) Clean tech NRW Competence matrix – central pillar for cooperation and building of specific research consortiaCleanTech)1.0)and)2.0)ask)for)cooperative)set8up)
Answer:)Innovationcluster)CleanTechNRW)
#19$From
Kno
wledgetoTechn
ology:Scien
pican
alyssis
lead
tosy
stem
aDciden
DficaDo
nofnew
de
man
dforinn
ovaD
on
TechnologyPush&M
arketPull:Strategiccom
peDDveadvantagethroughsystemaDc
creaDonofcooperaDonbasedonknowledge
plaporm
25Source:CleanTechNRW201113 Februar 2018
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Natural gas grid, power plants
POLYMER- BUILDING
BLOCK
BENZOL- PRODUCTION
METHANATION
blast furnance
CH4
C6H6
wastegasesWasteheat
Example Industrial symbiois: Example: Re-use of CO2 from the steel industry as chemical feedstock
2613 Februar 2018
Demonstration Project:Carbon2Chem from Thyssen Krupp Steel et al started in 2015
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Innovation needs bundling knowledge - Low Carbon Centrum NRW Joined approach of scientific community and industry to initiate long-term innovation projects and intensify cooperation across sectors
27Source:WI201613 Februar 2018
ThinkTank(virtualconnecDon)Interdisciplinaryse/ngofins3tutes
IndustryClusterandNetw
orksStakeholder-andprojektplarormCorepartner(Chemicalindustry,steel,energy,paper,aluminium
etc.)
Low-Carbon-CentrumNRW
NRW
Resea
rchCo
mmun
ity
Innova:onimpulses
Prac:onersknowhow
WG1 WG2 WG3 WG4
NucleusofresourceuniversityKnowledgetransfer
Knowledgetransfer
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Conclusion: To achieve global GHG mitigation targets severe innovation efforts as well as international cooperation and appropriate policy framework are necessary
13 Februar 2018 28
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Conclusion - major challenges for the future
13 Februar 2018 29
(1) Identification of major innovation needs to close the technology gap (including identification and multi-criteria assessment of potential break through technologies/processes) – complementation of traditional technology push approach by market pull approach (long term needs)
(2) Identification of adequate economic, infrastructural, institutional, social and political conditions for implementation of innovations, questions include
• how to finance huge pilot & demonstration projects (mutual efforts from industry and governments)?
• how to organize technological cooperation across industry sectors (industrial symbiosis) and country borders (international cooperation): sharing risks, responsibilities and benefits
• how to deal with complexity of energy system and interdependencies between economic sectors as well as uncertainties about major future variables (how to avoid path dependencies)?
(3) Identification of adequate market structures to create investment dynamics while guaranteeing fair competition between companies and across countries (how to avoid carbon leakage)
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Conclusion - major challenges for the future
13 Februar 2018 30
(4) Strengthen cooperation between industry and universities to provide sufficient knowledge (qualification) for implementation of an ambitious transformation pathway - impulses for appropriate curricula necessary
(5) Intensify debate and exchange with civil society to get sufficient backing for necessary investments and infrastructure measures
overallaconsistent(integraDve)industrialpolicyisneededthatsupportsstepbystepimplementaDonofadecarbonizaDon(GHGneutrality)pathwaywhilerespecDngtradiDonalgoalsofthesector(e.g.compeDDveness,safeguardingjobs)aswellasothermegatrends(e.g.globalizaDon,urbanizaDon,digitalizaDon)
Thank you very much for your attention