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FUTUREUSER-PRODUCTARRANGEMENTS:

COMBININGPRODUCTIMPACTANDSCENARIOSINDESIGN

FORMULTIAGESUCCESS

Dr.StevenDorrestijn,Dr.MaschaC.vanderVoort,Prof.dr.ir.Peter-PaulVerbeek

[Drafttext.Articlepublishedas:Dorrestijn,S.,vanderVoort,M.,&Verbeek,P.P.(2014).Futureuser-productarrangements:Combiningproductimpactandscenariosindesignformultiagesuccess.Technologicalforecastingandsocialchange,89,284-292.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.08.005]

ABSTRACT

Thepresenceoffourgenerationsinbusinessandorganisationsandtheprevalenceofever-evolvingtechnology,posequestionsfortechnologydesign;amuchwiderrangeofuser-productarrangementsneedstobeforecastanddesignedfor.Toprovideatheoreticalframeworkthataccommodatestheneedtoforecastproductappealforvariousagegroupsandcontextsthispapercomparesandcombinesthedualuseofscenariosfromscenariobaseddesignandscenarioplanningwiththeapproachoftechnicalmediationinthephilosophyoftechnology.Itintroduces‘scenariobaseddesign’and‘scenarioplanning’aswellas‘mediationtheory’andspecificallythe‘productimpactmodel’.Inscenariobaseddesigndirectproductimpactcanbeusedfordrawingandevaluatingscenarioswithafocushowwaysofdoingaredirectedandchangedbyproducts.Inscenarioplanningindirectproductimpactsarehelpful.Utopian/dystopianconceptionsoftechnologyhelptodrawextremescenarios,whilehistoricalpatternsinsociotechnicalevolutionguidetheevaluationanddefinitionofrealisticforecasts.Ourexamplessuggestthattheseeffectsmayjustaswellgointhedirectionofaugmentingthedividebetweengenerations,andfullattentioniscalledfortopreventorsolvethis.

AUTHORS

StevenDorrestijn(1977)isanassistantprofessorattheLaboratoryofDesign,ProductionandManagementoftheUniversityofTwente,andReaderinEthicsandTechnologyatSaxionUniversityofAppliedSciences,theNetherlands.Hisresearchconcernstheinfluencesoftechnologiesonhumansandsocietyaswellaspeople'spracticesofaccommodatingnewtechnologiesintheirlives.Thisapproachtotechnologiesinpeople'severydaylivesisapracticeorientedcomplementtotheoreticalapproachesinethics.Atthesametimeitishelpfulforuser-centreddesigninimprovingproductusabilityandacceptance.(mail@stevendorrestijn.nl/www.stevendorrestijn.nl)

MaschaC.vanderVoort(1974)isanassociateprofessorattheLaboratoryofDesign,ProductionandManagementoftheUniversityofTwente.SheisleadingtheresearchgrouponUseAnticipationinProductDesign.Theresearchfocusisonsupportingdesignersinanticipatingusewithinproductdesignprocesseswithnewdesignapproachesandtoolsforimprovinguser-productinteraction.Specialattentionispaidtothedevelopmentofscenariobasedmethodsandtoolsthatsupportactivestakeholderinvolvementandparticipatorydesign.Techniquesasworkshops,seriousgamingandvirtualrealityarefrequentlypartofthesedesignsupports.

Peter-PaulVerbeek(1970)isaprofessorofphilosophyoftechnologyandchairoftheDepartmentofPhilosophyattheUniversityofTwente.HeispresidentoftheSocietyforPhilosophyandTechnologyandamemberoftheDutchCouncilfortheHumanities.Verbeek'sresearchfocusesonthesocialandculturalrolesoftechnologyandtheethicalandanthropologicalaspectsofhuman–technologyrelations.Hisresearchfocusesonthedevelopmentofatheoryoftechnologicalmediation,forwhichhereceivedaVICI-awardfromtheNetherlandsOrganizationforScientificResearch.

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INTRODUCTION:ANTICIPATINGUSER-PRODUCTARRANGEMENTS

Howtoforecastthefutureuseoftechnologies?Whenorganisationswanttoprovidetheirmulti-age

employeesaworkenvironmentthatenablesthemtoworkmosteffectivelyandefficiently,theyare

infactfacingacomplicatedforecastingproblem.Notonlydoesthetechnologytheyintroducein

theirorganisationshavetomatchagreatvarietyofhumancharacteristicsandworkactivities.More

importantly,researchshowsthattechnologytransformsbehaviours(Ihde1990;Latour1999;

Dorrestijn2012a;Verbeek2005).Technologiesdonotmerelysupporttheworkofemployeesinan

instrumentalway,buttheyalsohaveanimpactonthecharacterofpeople'sworkandonthewayin

whichitisconducted.

Personalcomputers,forinstance,notonlyhavesupportedtheworkofsecretariesthatwas

traditionallydoneontype-writers,butalsohaveradicallychangedofficework,includingtheworkof

secretaries—typingtexthasbecomeoneoftheleastcentralelementsoftheirwork.Developing

andintroducingtechnologiesforworkenvironments,therefore,requireacomplicatedformof

forecastingoftheinteractionsbetweenproductsandusers.Isitpossibletopredictwhatcouldbe

satisfyingarrangementsofproductsandusersinthefuture?Andcanthisbedoneforaworkforce

thatspansawiderangeofages?

Inordertoanswerthisquestion,thispaperexploresandcombinesapproachesindesignresearch,

philosophyoftechnology,andforecastingstudies.Asatheoreticalresearchpaper,itaimsto

contributetomethodsofforecastingingeneral,withaspecialfocusonworkplacetechnologyinthe

contextofgenerationaldifferences,ageing,andworkorganisation.Hencethispaperpresentsa

frameworktoexpandforecastingapproacheswiththeoriesabouttheinteractionbetweenusersand

technologies.

Thecentralthesisofthispaperisthatadequatetechnologicalforecastingrequiresthatweexplicitly

andsystematicallytakeintoaccounttheinteractionsbetweenusersandtechnologies.Inorderto

realizethis,wemaketwotheoreticalsteps.Firstwecombinetwousesofscenariosindesign:

scenariobaseddesignandscenarioplanning.Scenariobaseddesignisamethodologydevelopedin

designresearchinwhichscenariosareappliedtoimproveuser-productinteraction.Inthiscontext,

scenariosfunctionasexplicitdescriptionsofthehypotheticalfutureuseofproductsorservices(Van

derBijl-BrouwerandVanderVoort2013).These‘usescenarios’needtobedistinguishedfromthe

‘futurescenarios’usedinscenarioplanning.Whilescenario-baseddesignfocusesonmicro-leveluse

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situations,scenarioplanningisaforecastingtechniquetofordrawingscenarioswithalargerscope

ofplaceandtime.

Secondlyweintegratetheseusesofscenariosindesignwiththeapproachof‘technicalmediation’,

whichhasitsrootsinphilosophyoftechnology.Inthiswaytheimpactoftechnologyonpeopleis

acknowledgedandusedtoinformtheusescenariosandfuturescenarios.Combiningthese

approachesresultsinasystematicheuristictooltoanticipatefuture‘interactionscenarios’between

usersandproducts,makingitpossibletodesigntheseproductsinamoreeffectiveandresponsible

way.

Asaguidingexampleforillustratingourtheoreticalexplorationofdualuseofscenariosandproduct

impactforanticipatingandoptimisingfutureuser-productarrangementswewillrefertothe

interactionbetweenwaysofworkingandworkplacefacilities.Whereasinabasicfunctionalisticview

oftechnologytechnicalfacilitiesmerelyinstrumentallyfacilitatewhatpeopledo,ourapproach

attemptstofocusattentiononhowtechnologyshapesandtransformshumanpractices.Thishas

clearimplicationswithrespecttothethemeofworkplacefacilitiesandamulti-generational

population.TechnicalinnovationintheworkplaceandespeciallyinICTfacilitiesmayseemgood

meansforsupporting,e.g.olderpeopleinremainingactiveandproductive.However,theadoption

ofnewtechnologyalsomaybeafactorinproducingadividebetweengenerations.

Manypeopleinthegenerationnowjustretiredhaveduringthepastdecadefacedthechallengeof

eitherlearningtoworkwiththecomputer,or,equallychallengingly,keepingdoingtheirworkaslong

aspossiblewithoutthecomputer.Inthemeantimecomputerizationhaspermeatedalldomainsof

work.Moreover,connectiontotheInternethasalsobecomewidespreadandportabledevicesare

becomingmoreandmorecommon.Thisbringschangesinworkingbehaviours.Anewphenomenon

isthatemployeesincreasinglyusetheirownorself-selectedsmartphone,tabletandlaptopfor

companyandworkpurposes—knownas‘BringYourOwnDevice’(BYOD).BYODhasbecomea

recurringnotionoverthelastcoupleofyearsandhasbenefitsaswellaspossibledangers(cf.

Thomson2012;Singh2012).Forecastingtheimpactofsuchchangesindifferentgenerationsrequires

anapproachthatintegratesusescenarioswithmoregeneralfuturescenarios.

SCENARIOBASEDPRODUCTDESIGN

High-qualityproductscannotbedesignedwithoutaddressingthequalityoftheinteractionofthe

productwithitsuser.Theextenttowhichaproductmeetstheexpectationsofusers,afterall,isnot

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onlyacharacteristicoftheproduct,butisfullydependentontheinteractionbetweentheproduct,

itsuserandtheenvironmentwithinwhichitisused.Forthisreason,theconceptofusabilityhas

beencoinedasaquality-measureforuser-productinteraction.Usabilitycanbedefinedastheextent

towhichaspecifiedusercanachievespecifiedgoalswitheffectiveness,efficiencyandsatisfactionin

aspecifiedcontextofuse(ISO9241-11;cf.e.g.Jordan1998,5).

Designingusableproductsrequiresdesignerstoexplicitlyresearchandaddressthevarietyamongst

users,theirgoals,theintendedproductinteractionsandtheuseenvironments.Theuseofscenarios

canbehelpfulhere.Scenariosconsistofseveralelements(RossonandCarroll2002).Theyincludea

‘startingstate’,consistingofauser(orotherstakeholder)withacertaingoalinrelationtoacertain

productinasetting.Thesettingconsistsofallcontextualaspectsthatcanpotentiallyinfluencethe

user–productinteraction,suchasthephysicalenvironment,andtheobjectsandindividualswithin

thatenvironment.Theplotofthescenariounfoldswhenanactorstartstoperformactivitiesaimed

atachievinghisorhergoal,whentheproductrespondstotheseactions,and/orwhenchangesinthe

settingaffecttheinteractionbetweentheactorandtheproduct.Fig.1illustratestherelationship

amongtheelements.

Figure1Overviewofscenarioelements(VanderBijl-Brouwer&VanderVoort2013)

Ascenariocandescribewhathappensinaparticularsituationwithoutcommittingtodetailsof

preciselyhowthingshappen(RossonandCarroll2002).Itistypicallyexpressedinawrittenor

spokennarrative.Alternativelyoradditionally,itmaybeexpressedintheformofstoryboards,

movies,role-playingand(virtual)simulations(Nielsen1990).Thepowerofscenariosistorepresent

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alternativesolutionsorusesituations,andtoexploreboundaryconditionsandenablecomparisons,

helpingtoavoidprematuredecisionsorcommitment(Carroll2000).Such‘usescenarios’enable

productdesignerstoanticipatemoresystematicallyhowuserswillinteractwiththefutureproducts,

inordertotakethisintoaccountinthedesignprocess.

SCENARIOPLANNING

Scenariosarealsousedintherelatedyetdifferentfieldofscenarioplanning.Whenorganisations

needtomakedecisionsaboutstrategiesforanuncertainfuture,theycanbenefitfromthemethod

ofscenarioplanningpioneeredbyKahn(1962).Researcherswhoadvocatescenarioplanningclaim

thatscenarioscanbeahelpfultoolfordealingwithuncertainty.Inthiscontext,scenariosaredefined

astoolsfororderingone'sperceptionsaboutalternativefutureenvironmentsinwhichone's

decisionsmightbeplayedout(Schwartz1996).

Scenarioplanningisbasedontheinvestigationofissuesthatmightplayacentralroleinfuture

situations,andontheidentificationofforcesthatdrivethoseissues.Themostimportant‘driving

forces’arethenusedtobuildvariousintegratedscenarios,whichserveasframesofreferenceto

supportandtoreflectupondecisions.Thereforescenarios‘arenotaboutpredictingthefuture,

rathertheyareaboutperceivingfuturesinthepresent’(Schwartz1996,36).

Bothscenarioplanningandscenario-basedproductdesignareusedtodealwithuncertainty

regardingthefuture.Scenarioplanningisgenerallyappliedtodealwithuncertaintyregardingthe

impactofchangesinpoliticalandsocio-economicaspectsandavailabletechnology.Ifaproductisto

beintroducedinadistantfuture,itisadvisabletoanalysetrendsthatmightinfluencethefuture

contextofuse(e.g.VanderHeijden2005).Scenario-basedproductdesign,ontheotherhand,is

generallyappliedtodealingwithuncertaintyregardingusergoals,user–productinteractionsand

usecircumstances,i.e.allfactorsthatdirectlyinfluencethelevelofusabilitythatisrealisedwitha

productdesign.

Thereisanimportantrelationbetweenscenario-baseddesignandscenarioplanning.The

introductionofanewproduct,afterall,notonlyhasimplicationsfortheinteractionsbetweenusers

andproductsonamicro-level,butalsoaffectslong-termusergoalsandusecircumstances.Scenario-

baseddesigngainsfromafutureperspective.Thebenefitforscenarioplanningisitsintegrationwith

technologydesign.Thispointcanbefurtherelaboratedwithmoreunderstandingoftheinteraction

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betweensocialandtechnicalfactorsbyintegrationwiththeapproachoftechnicalmediationand

productimpact.

Inthecontextofamulti-generationalworkforcetheissuesthatneedtobeaddressedinscenarios

includetheextenttowhichdifferentgenerationsarefamiliarwith,andskilledinusingtechnologies

asaresultoftheirexperienceoreducationoutsidetheworkplace,variationsinthespeedandnature

ofthelearningprocessthathastotakeplaceasnewtechnologiesareintroducedaswellas

organisationalenvironmentsinwhichtheremaybeaspectrumofcompetenceandengagementwith

technologythatisfarwiderthanhasbeenthecaseinrecentyears.

TECHNICALMEDIATIONTHEORYANDPRODUCTIMPACTTOOL

Ausefulstartingpointforunderstandingtheimpactofproductsonhumansistheapproachof

technicalmediationfromthephilosophyoftechnology.Whiletechnicalmediationisacommonly

employedconcept(McLuhan2003;Ihde1990;Feenberg2002;Latour1999),ithasbecome

altogethercentralinthe‘post-phenomenological’approachinphilosophyoftechnologythat

developedoutoftheworkofNorthAmericanphilosopherDonIhde(e.g.Ihde1990).Thisapproach

hasresultedinaphilosophyortheoryoftechnologicalmediation(seeVerbeek2005;2011).

Thenotionoftechnicalmediationismeanttogobeyondananalysiswherethesphereofhumansis

opposedtothatoftechnology,aswascommoninthephilosophyoftechnologyinthetwentieth

century.Inthemediationapproach,humansandtechnologiesareseenasfundamentallyinterwoven

andinterdependent.Thefocusofphilosophicalresearchhasshiftedfromprotectingagenuine

humansphereagainsttechnologicalalienationtowardsinvestigatingthefundamentallyinterwoven

characterofhumansandtechnologies.Howdotechnologieshelptoshapehumanpractices,

experiences,responsibilities,interpersonalrelations,etc.?Technologieshavemultipleimpactson

humanexistenceandmodesofliving,whichneedtobeconceptualized,studied,andevaluated.

Theconcentrationonmediationmarksan‘empiricalturn’(Achterhuis2001)inthephilosophyof

technology,i.e.agrowingcollaborationwithempiricalstudiesoftechnologyinthefieldofScience

andTechnologyStudies(STS)andwithengineeringandproductdesignpractices.Themediation

approachthusoffersthepossibilityofcombiningphilosophicalandethicalanalysisoftechnology

withsocialsciencesanddesignperspectives.TheProductImpactTooldevelopedbyDorrestijn

(2012a;2012b)followsthisup,byproposinganinterdisciplinaryoverviewofconceptsandtypesof

impactoftechnologyonusersandsociety.

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TheheartoftheProductImpactToolisadiagramwhichdisplaysarepertoireofeffectsoftechnology

onhumans(seeFig.2).Theeffectsareorderedaccordingtothequestion‘fromwhichside’humans

areaffectedbytheimpactoftechnology.Fourdimensionsofproductimpactsaredistinguished,

representedbyfourquadrantsinthediagram:before-the-eye,to-the-hand,behind-the-back,and

above-the-head.Theapproachandtermsareinspiredbyphenomenologicalresearchinphilosophy

andmediastudies(Flusser1999;Ihde1990;McLuhan2003;Verbeek,2005).Itisalsopossibletouse

themodelwithoutmuchreferencetothesebackgroundtheoriesandtodescribethedimensionsina

morecommondesignandexactsciencesvocabularyasfollows:cognitive,physical,environmental,

andabstract.Nowfollowsaconciseoverviewofthemodelandexemplaryimpacts(seeDorrestijn

2012aforanelaborateversionandextensivereferences).

Figure2ProductImpactModel

Before-the-eye(cognitive).Technologycaninfluencehumansbyaddressingtheirdecision-making

faculty.Thefirsttypeofinfluenceinthequadrantbefore-the-eyeis‘guidance’towardsintendeduse.

Indesignthiseffectisaddressedbyaimingforself-evidentformsandcolours,byaddingarrowsand

text,etc.Theinfluenceonhumanactioncanalsobemoreintrusive:‘persuasion’throughdesign.In

thiscasetechnologynotonlyguidestowardsproperusebutisdesignedwiththeaimofinterferingin

people'sbehaviour,asinthecaseofpop-upbannersonwebsites.Ineithercasetechnology

addressesthehumandecision-makingprocess.Athirdtypeofeffectistheexpressionof‘lifestyle’by

design.Productslikecarsorclothingallowpeopletoshapeandexpresstheiridentity.

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Howdoesthisrelatetotheissueofageingandmultiageworkinginorganisations?Theintroduction

ofthegraphicalinterfaceoncomputershasenhancedthe‘guidance’ofusersinfindingthedifferent

functions.Thishasmadecomputersmoreeasilyusableforpeoplewhodonotunderstandcode.An

oldergenerationwhointhe1980's,whencomputerscametotheworkplace,wouldnothave

imaginedeveradoptingcomputers,isnowcatchingupandisusingemailonpcortabletasamatter

ofcourse.Thefigureof‘lifestyle’playsaroleaswellhere.Whilesomepeopleremainproudnon-

users,mostpeoplewanttoidentifythemselveswithmembersoftoday'sdigitalworldandnotwith

computerilliterates.

To-the-hand(physical).Productscanalsoshortcutdecisionmakinganddirectlyimpacttheuser's

bodyandgestures.Thefirsttypeofinfluenceinthisquadrantis‘coercion’.Thisisperhapsthemost

obviousofallimpactsoftechnology.Examplesareafencetocontrolpeople'saccessoraspeed

bumpforcingcardriverstoslowdown.Theeffectof‘mediatedgestures’denoteshumanactivities

whereembodimentoftechnologiesplaysarole,asinwritingwithpencilorridingabike.‘Subliminal

affect’isthetypeofeffectofbeingattractedorrepelledbyonlyhalf-conscioussensations,for

examplemarketersadvisesupermarketstointroducethesmelloffreshbreadandcoffeetoenhance

people'sperception/experienceofhospitalityandinfluencetheirbuyingmood.

ICTfacilitiesatouruniversityofferanexampleforthefigureof‘coercion’.Inrecentyearsa

centralisedworkplacesoftwaremanagementsystemhasdeniedemployeesmostadministrator

rightsovertheirpc's.Userscanonlyinstallsoftwarefromalimitedselectionandotherwisecannot

changewhatisontheircomputer.Anadvantageisthatnotmuchcangowrong—andfromthe

employer'sperspectivethereisenhancedcontroloversecurityandcosts.Thisdenialof

administratorrightsembeddedinthesystemisanimpactbestdescribedwiththefigureof

‘coercion’.

Behind-the-back(environmental).Apartfrominfluencesthroughdirectcontact,technologycanalso

influencepeopleratherindirectly.Thematerial-technicalenvironmentandinfrastructureforma

backgroundthatfacilitatesordirectshumanactionandhistory.Againthreeexemplarytypesof

effectsaredistinguished.‘Technicaldeterminism’isabouthowthematerialconditionsinthe

environmentdeterminethecourseofhumanhistory.Asecondexampleis‘trendreinforcementor

conflict’.Thesuccessofaproductisoftendependentonitsenvironment.Theinventionofglasses

reinforcedthesuccessoftheprintingpress,suchasforolderpeopleasdiscussedfurtherbelow.But

thesuccessofthecarhasalsocausedareverseeffect,namelytrafficjams.Thirdly,anenvironment

expectsandtosomedegreeaffectshowpeopleare,theirnorms,andhowtheybehave.Aclean

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environmentpromotesdecentattitudes.Surveillancecamerasareintendedtoenhancepeople's

moralityandbringsafety,butmayalsoincreasefeelingsofinsecurityorintrusivemonitoring.Inthe

productimpactmodelthisisreferredtoas‘environmentalconditioningofsubjectivity’.

ThephenomenonofBYODthatwereferredtoabovecontrastssharplywiththecentralisedITpolicy

mentionedjustabove.Weseeagoodexampleofconflicting‘trends’.Manyemployeesfindit

frustratingthattheycannotcustomisetheirownsystem.Somefinditunacceptable.Theyeither

demandanexceptionandbeinggivenadministratorrightsafterall,usetheirownappliances,or

evenloadanewoperatingsystemandusethelaptoptheyhavebeenprovidedwithastheirown.

PeopletodayliveinaworldfullofallkindofnetworkedmobileICTappliancesandubiquitous

opportunitiestoadaptandcustomisedevices;suchenvironmentalfactorsneedtobeincludedas

significantfactorswhenforecastingproductimpact.Inaddition,inthisparticularcontext,flex-work

andflexibilityingeneralareevermoreindemandbyemployers.Asaresulttheemployees'

experienceoftechnologyisnotlimitedtoasingleenvironmentwithinaspecificorganisation.Hence

itcanonlybeexpectedthatcentralisedICTfacilitieswithverystrictprocedurescomeunderpressure

forbeingunacceptabletolargegroupsofemployees.

Above-the-head(abstract).The‘above-the-head’quadrantenclosesgeneralizing,philosophical

claimsabouttherelationbetweentechnologyontheonehandandhumansandsocietyonthe

other.Graspingtheinterdependencyoftechnologyandsocietyatthisgenerallevelisspeculative;at

least,opinionsareverydiverseandoftencontradictory.Theviewsoftechnologyvaryfrom‘utopian’

beliefinprogressbymeansoftechnology(thetypicalviewinmodernity)to‘dystopian’fearof

domination(prevailinginthetwentiethcenturywiththenuclearbombandecologicalcrisis).The

viewof‘ambivalenthybridity’isthepositionofcontemporarymediationtheory,wherethehybridity

ofhumansandtechnologyisacknowledged,butwithneithereuphorianordespair.

Inthe1960stherewasmuchspeculationaboutthelikelihoodthattechnologicaladvanceswould

resultinmassiveproductivityincreasesandreduceddemandforhumanactivity—withresulting

massunemployment.Althoughincreasesinproductivitydidoccur,thehumanpopulationrapidly

adaptedtothisandincreaseditslevelofdemandsothathighlevelsofemploymentpersistedfar

longerthanhadbeenpredicted.Possiblyasaresult,currentpoliticalperspectivescontinuetoregard

unemploymentandunderemploymentas‘problems’yetalsosupportanindustrialnexusthatseeks

everimprovedproductivityfromthosewhoareemployed.Inamulti-generationalenvironment

theremaybeaneedtodevelopahuman-technologynarrativethatavoidspurelyproductivity-based

rankingofemployees,giventheirvaryinglevelsoftechnicalskill,productivityandparticipation—

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evenwhendoingdirectlycomparablejobs.Insuchaperspectivetechnologycanbeseenasan

enablerofdiversity,butthiswillonlybepositiveifunderpinnedbysupportfor,andvaluingof,that

diversity.

PRODUCTIMPACTANDSCENARIOSINDESIGN

Howcanproductimpactberecombinedwiththeuseofscenariosindesigntoaddressfutureuseof

productsinamulti-agesociety?Withregardtoscenariosindesign,adistinctionwasmadebetween

scenario-basedproductdesignandscenarioplanning.Theproductimpactmodeloffersa

differentiationwithinthethemeoftechnicalmediation:acategorizationoftheeffectsoftechnology

onusersinfourways.Howdothesedifferentcategoriesofproductimpactandscenariosindesign

bestcomplementeachother?Thedirectproductimpacts(to-the-handandbefore-the-eye)are

particularlyrelevantforanalysing,forecastinganddesigningwaysofhandlingofproductsbyusers.

Thisistheapplicationdomainofscenariobaseddesign.Theindirecttypesofproductimpact

(behind-the-backandabove-the-head)operateinawidercontextandinthelongterm.Therefore

thesearetheproductimpactsthataremosthelpfulinthedomainofscenarioplanning.Thisleadsto

twocombinationsofproductimpacttheoryandscenariosindesignforanticipatinguser-product

arrangements(seeFig.3).Directproductimpactcanbeintegratedwithscenariobaseddesignfor

theassessmentanddesignofuser-productinteractions.Indirectproductimpactcanbecombined

Futureuser-productarrangements

Combiningscenariosandtheproductimpactindesign

Directproductimpacts

Before-the-eye

To-the-hand

Scenariobaseddesign

Assessmentanddesignofuser-product

interactions

Indirectproductimpacts

Above-the-head

Behind-the-back

Scenarioplanning

Forecastingof,andattuningto,socio-

technicalco-evolution

Figure3CombiningProductImpactandScenariosinDesign

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withscenarioplanningleadingtoanapproachofforecastingofandattuningtosocio-technicalco-

evolution.Inthesubsequentsectionsthesetwocombinationsareelaborated.

ASSESSMENTANDDESIGNOFFUTUREUSER-PRODUCTINTERACTIONS

Inscenario-baseddesign,scenariosareusedasameanstodevelopamorerealisticpictureofactual

usesituations.Theproductimpactapproachcanhelpdrawingandevaluatingsuchscenariosby

accountingfortheimpactofproductsonpeople'sactions.Itisamodeofthinkingthathelpstobreak

awayfromtheschemeofpre-existinguserneedsandthesearchforthemostefficienttechnical

solutiontofulfiltheseneeds.Thataproductdoesordoesnotyetfullydelivertouserswhatitis

intendedtodeliverwithinawell-definedsituationisoftenfarfromacompletedescriptionofwhatis

actuallyhappening.Insteaditisnecessarytoresearchalsowhataproductactuallymakesusersdo.

Thismeans‘lookingtheotherwayaround’foramoment:notstartingfromassumedneedsand

intendeduse,butfocusingonwhatatechnologyactuallydoesorcoulddotoitsusers,irrespectiveof

designers'assumptionsandintentions.

Thecombinationofthemediationapproachandscenario-baseddesignishelpfulforachievingthe

goalsofscenario-baseddesign,namelyimprovingusabilityanduser-centreddesign.Theimpact

typesofguidance,persuasionandcoercioncanbeusedtoevaluateanddesignhowpeopleare

directedtowardsgoodwaysofusingproducts.

Butthecombinationalsostretchesthescopeofscenario-baseddesigntowardsdesignthatassumes

largersocialandethicalgoals.Thereisagrowingawarenessoftheinfluencesoftechnologyon

humansindesigntheory.Forexample,theideaof‘persuasivetechnology’asconceivedbyFogg

(2003)isthatproductscanbedesignedtostimulatepeopletochangetheirbehaviourandattitudes.

Smartenergymeters,forinstance,canpersuadeandhelppeopletoreduceenergyconsumption.A

similarapproachwasadvancedbyThalerandSunstein(2008),whocalldesignerstotakeinto

accounthowtechnologiespre-structurehumanchoices.Sucheffectscouldbeusedtoproducts

‘nudge’userstowardsdecisionsthataregenerallyconsidereddesirable.

IntheworkofNynkeTrompandJantineBouma,productimpacttheoriesliketheseareframedwith

thegoalofrealisinganapproachof‘socialdesign’(Trompetal.2011;Tromp2013;Bouma2013).

Verbeek(2011)presentsaframeworkforincorporatingtechnicalmediationtheoryindesign,

comprisingthreebranchesorstagesofactivities:anticipationofmediations,assessmentof

mediations,andthedeliberatedesignofmediations.Inthismorephilosophicalperspective,the

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ethicaldimensionisupfront,implyingasimilarcallforsocialdesign.Itisequallyanexplicit

conclusionoftheworkbyDorrestijn(2012a)ontheProductImpactToolthatthecombinationof

technicalmediationresearch,ethicsanddesignwouldleadtoavisionofsociallyengageddesign.

Howcouldaproductimpactassessmenthelptoexplorethesocialimpactsofnewworkplace

facilities,andthevarietyofreactionsofdifferentgroupsofusers?Theroleoftechnologygoes

beyondfacilitatinggiventrendsinwaysofworkinginanintentionalandcontrolledway.Technology

playsamoreactivepartintransformingwaysofworking.Theproductimpact‘coercion’inthedesign

ofanITworkplacemanagementsystemhasalreadybeenmentionedabove.Assessmentofand

copingwithdifferentgroupsandgenerationsofusersisachallengehere.Perhapslessconfident,less

experienced,youngerorolderworkersfeelwellprovidedforandsecurewithcentralisedICT

facilities,whereasmoreexperiencedandsomeyoungerpeoplewhoathomefullyemploymobile

andnetworktechnologiesmayfeelfrustratedandmayprefermoreandmoretoberesponsiblefor

alltheequipmenttheyworkwith—andthatincludestheirpersonalequipmenttheybringinto

work.

Therearealsomoresocietalissuesinvolvedwhenlookingatchanginghabitsandnormsconcerning

flex-workingandthefusionofworkandleisuretime.Willusingpersonallyownedequipmentatwork

leadtostafftakingworkfacilitieshomewiththemmoreoften,ormostofthetime?Andcouldthis

notpersuadepeopletoevermorefuseworkandleisuretime?Whathasbeentheeffectofusing

workemailonpersonalsmartphonesondistinctionbetweenworkandhome?Isitpossible,wouldit

bedesirable,toinfluenceofficehourspeoplekeep?

Scenarioswhichaccountfortheimpactoftechnologyonbehaviourcaninformuserresearch,design

andco-creationpractices.Thisbothhelpstobetteranticipatefutureworkingpracticesandhelpsto

takeresponsibilityforsocialeffectsoftechnology.

FORECASTINGOFANDATTUNINGTOSOCIO-TECHNICALCO-EVOLUTION

Nowwewillelaboratehowindirectproductimpactandscenarioplanningcanreinforceeachother.

Inscenarioplanning,typicallytwouncertainfactorsarechosen.Thesebecomevariableswhichcan

beputontwoaxes,leadingtoamatrixwithfourscenarios.Whenweusescenarioplanningfor

thinkingthroughthepossibleimplicationsoffuturetechno-logicaldevelopments,typicallyan

uncertainsocialvariableisputononeaxisandatechnicalvariableontheother.Forexample,society

coulddeveloptowardsmoreindividualityortowardsmorecommunality;workplaceICTfacilities

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coulddevelopinthedirectionofeithercompanycontrolledfacilitiesorBYOD(BringYourOwn

Device).

Heretheproductimpactmodelcancontributetoimprovingunderstandingoftheinterdependency

ofsocietaldevelopmentsandtechnicaldevelopments.Thetwodimensionsdonotsimplygo

togetherwellornot,butinteractanddetermineeachothertosomeextent.Thiscombinationof

philosophyoftechnologyandscenarioplanningseemspotentiallyfruitful,butisasyetlargely

unexplored(forexampleseeforarecentoverview:Wright,Cairns&Bradfield2013).

Fordrawingscenariodiagramsinformedbyproductimpacttheabstractconceptionsoftechnology

(‘above-the-head’)intermsofutopiananddystopiantechnologyofferahelpfulheuristicschemeto

exploretheextremitiesofpossiblefutures.Inthinkingabouttechnologyandespeciallyinthecaseof

controversiestheextremeviewsofutopiananddystopiantechnologycanoftenberecognized.A

‘utopia/dystopiasyndrome’hauntsthinkingabouttechnologyaccordingtocriticHansAchterhuis

(1998).Thisisanotherexpressionofthecallforamediationapproachinsteadofanoverly

generalizingphilosophicalanalysisoftechnology.Still,inthecontextofforecastingtechniques,these

generalandextremeviewscanserveassourcesofinspirationforimaginingpotentiallybeneficialand

threateningimpactsoftechnologiessuchasinformationtechnologiesoninexperiencedandolder

workers.

Togiveaconciseillustrationinthedomainofchangingworkingfacilitiesandbehaviours,wecould

imagineanextremescenarioinwhichportablegearandtheBYODtrendpushflex-working,working

fromhome,home–workfusionsofarastotransformultimatelyeveryemployeeintoafree-lancer.

Togetherwithnewproductiontechniquessuchas3-Dprintingallworkcouldbeexecutedawayfrom

acentralplaceofwork.Wecallthisthe‘endofthecompanyasweknowit’scenario.Adigitaland

virtualhubormarketplacewouldmatchworktobedonewithindividualentrepreneursabletodo

thejob.Inautopianversionofthisscenariothiswouldbeatransitionwelcomedbypeopleand

wouldmeananincreaseinthesenseoffreedom,commitment,productivityandeconomicaswellas

psychologicalwelfare.Itwouldmeantheendofworkerexploitationandwouldenhanceevery

individual'sautonomy.Andtheflexibilitywouldalloweverybody,ofanyageandcapability,towork

accordingtotheircapabilities.Inadystopianversionofthisscenariothenewarrangementswould

beexperiencedbytoomanypeopleastooindividualistic,toocompetitiveandaltogetheroutof

control.Itcouldcausenewdividesbetweengenerations.Theaugmentationofchoicewouldinthis

scenarioturnnegativeandleadtoconfusion,reducedproductivityandstagnation.

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Inaddition,lessonsfromthedomainsofhistory,geographyandsociologyconcerningpatternsin

socio-technicalevolution(‘behind-the-back’)helptoevaluateandrefinetheseextremescenarios

andtodevelopmoremoderateandrealisticversionsthatcanbeusedasabasisforpolicy-making

anddesign.Whiletheabstractideas‘above-the-head’haveatendencytowardstheextremes,the

actualsocialembeddingoftechnologiestypicallyfollowsamoremoderatepath.Here,focusingon

impacts‘behind-the-back’,suchashistoricalpatternsofmutualadaptationbetweentechnologyand

society,canhelptoframemorerealisticscenariosoffuturesocio-technicalregimes.

Inordertobetterunderstandhistoricalpatternsintheco-evolutionoftechnologyandsocietythe

analysisofrecurringpatternsof‘remediation’byBolterandGrusin(1999)canplayacrucialrole.

Whennewtechnologiesreplaceolderones,oftentheyaretypicallyusedsimplytoserveold

purposes,andareevendesignedtolooklikethetechnologytheyreplace—asinthecaseofearly

automobileswhichhadtheappearanceofhorsecarriages.However,afterthisinitialstage,the

displacementofonetechnologybyanotheroftenmakesapparenthowtheformerpracticeswere

technicallymediated,andthatnewtechnologiescaninfactbeseenas‘remediations’.This

‘remediation’canfacilitateanunderstandingofthesocialembeddingofnewtechnologies.The

mechanismofnewmediaemergingindisguisehinderstheexploitationofthenewfunctionsthatare

characteristicofthenewmedium.Atthesametime,however,peopleoftenneedanalogieslinking

thenewerwiththeolderinordertobepreparedtorecognizeandusenewtechnologies.

Besidespatternsinthesuccessionoftechnologies,anothereffectoftechnologiesonhumansinthe

realmoftechnicalevolutionistheco-existenceandinterdependenceofdifferenttechnologies.One

example,mentionedabove,istherelation-shipbetweentheinventionsofprintingandspectacles

(Friedel2007,92).Theprintingpresscouldnothaveachieveditssuccesswithoutthesimultaneous

spreadofspectacles.Withoutglassesalargeproportionofthepopulation,especiallyinoldage,is

notabletoread.Theavailabilityofglassesisanenvironmentalfactorwithoutwhichtheprinting

presscouldneverhavebeenassuccessfulandcouldnothavehadsuchasignificantimpacton

society.

Thereverseeffect,wherethesuccessofatechnologyishinderedbyenvironmentalfactors,occursas

well.Oneexampleisthe‘reboundeffect’.Low-energylightbulbsareintendedtosaveenergy,but

becausepeoplehaveincreasedtheiruseofelectricallightingsincetheintroductionoflow-energy

bulbs,forexampletoilluminatethegarden,theeffecthasbeenlessimportantthananticipated

(VerbeekandSlob2006,3–4).Anotherexampleisthatthecarhashada‘joggingeffect’(Regis

15

Debray2000,59).Thecarmeansthatpeoplenolongerhavetowalk,withtheeffectthatmany

peoplehavetakenupjoggingintheirleisuretime.Here,too,therearetwoconflictingtrends:there

isadesireforspeedandconvenience,butwhenthisisfulfilledtoomuchitappearstobeconflicting

withanothervalue,namelythatofbeingfitandhealthy.

Inanotherexample,portableICTappliancestodayarenowsuppliedbyemployersasanextensionof

fixedfacilitiestoenableemployeestoworkmoreeasilyfromhomeorontheroad.Ouranalysis

howeverenlargesthescopeofresearchtoincludesocialtransformationsduetothesenew

technologies.Anincreaseinflexibilityofworkplacefacilitiesmayatfirstsightalsomeanan

advantageforolderworkers,allowingthemtoworkpartlyfromhome,forexample.Theadvantage

maywellreverseintoadisadvantageiftheaccompanyingeffectoffree-lanceworkingpersists.Asa

resultsocialsecurity,retirementmoneyandoccupationalhealthandsafetymightbecomemoreof

anindividualresponsiblyandcausenewdividesinthepopulation.Scenarioplanninginformedby

productimpactmayhelptothinkthroughsucheffectsinsocio-technicalstructures.Awarenesshelps

understandingandacceptanceofcircumstancesonecannotchange,andifpossibleincorporationof

organisationalchangeandserviceconceptsintothedesignassignment.

DESIGNIMPLICATIONS

Fromauser-centredaswellasfromaphilosophicalperspectivetherealworldisfuzzierthan

traditionalengineeringapproacheswouldlike.Userneedsandbehaviourevolveovertime,asdo

technicalfunctionalityandmeaning.Designingsolutionsforuserneedsdefinedfora‘frozen’

momentintimetendstoleadtosuboptimaldesignsthatinadequatelyaddresstheiractualuse

situationsanduserneeds.Thereforeamajorchallengefordesignistoanticipatethefutureuseof

productstoallowforfeasibleuser-productarrangementswhileatthesametimeacknowledgingthat

thisfutureuseisinitselfdynamic.Inapracticalapproachthebroaderinsightsfromfuturescenarios

mustbetranslatedbackintoamoreconcreteforminordertohelpassessmentanddesigninan

actualsituation.Henceacycleofvariablespanemerges,beginningwithscenariosforgrasping

concreteusepracticesviamorespeculativescenarioplanningandbacktoconcreteassessmentand

designofuser-productarrangements.

Wewillnowsummarizethecycleofstepsthatwepropose,appliedtoarrangementsoffacilitiesand

practicesinamulti-generationalworkenvironment.Whereasatraditionalfunctionalistapproach

mayfocusonissuesofaccess,security,andproductivitynumbers,itfailstograspthedynamicsand

interactionbetweentechnologyanduserpractices.Thefirststepofimprovementistoapply

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scenariobaseddesignanddirectproductimpactinordertoinvestigatethewayinwhichnew

technologyinfluencespeople(guidance,persuasion,coercion)andhowthismayprovokeavarietyof

differentreactionsfordifferentusers.DoBYODfacilitiesandpracticesengenderasenseoffreedom

andflexibility,orratherconfusionandinsecurity?Anddoesitcausehome–workfusing,andwhatare

theconsequencesforcommitmenttoemployers?Suchquestionscouldbeelaboratedintoscenarios

andcheckedbyuserresearchandinparticipatorydesignsessionswithworkersofdifferent

generations.

Inasecondstep,scenarioplanningcoupledwithindirectproductimpactcanbeusedtothink

throughbroaderandlongertermtransformations.Abovewesketchedafuturescenarioofthe‘end

ofthecompanyasweknowit’toimaginethepossibilitiesandissueswithflex-workingpractices

pushedtotheextreme.Thiscanbeusedtorevealstructuralissuesthatcannotbechangedand

hencetowhichdesignmustbeattuned,orwhichdemand,abroaderproblemdefinitionintermsof

systemdesignorproductservicecombination.Cloudsolutionsandsecurityareexamplesof

macroconditionsthatcannotbechanged,butstillhaveimplicationsfordesignonamoremicrolevel.

Itseemsofnousetoaimforveryhighsecuritymeasuresinacompanynetworkifatthesametime

thesynchronisationandaccessibilityfeaturesdonotcompeteineaseofusewiththoseoffreethird

partyclouddrives.Employeeswillbetemptedtocopyfilesthattheyalsouseathometocloud

services.Rulesofpolicywillhardlypreventemployeesdoingsoifthereisapracticalpenaltybecause

companyremoteworkingfacilitiesarehardertousethanthirdpartyservices.

Thethirdstepisaboutclosingthecircleagain:fromuserpractices(micro,directinteraction)to

speculatingandfore-castinglargertransformations(macro,indirect),finallybacktothelevelofuse

practicesandconcretedesignagain.Inthecontextofeasytousethirdpartycloudservices,if–for

securityreasons–companiesdowanttorestricttheuseofthirdpartynetworks,thenthe

implicationisthatrulesofpolicymustbebackedupbyeasytoaccesscompanydrivesandsimple

synchronisation.Specificallywithregardtothethemeofageing,wenotedbeforethatatrend

towardsBringYourOwnDevicestylefacilitieswillprobablycontinueamongyoungeremployees.

Whileworkingfromhomeandflex-workingmayofferopportunitiesforsomeolderworkersaswell,

othersmayneedmuchmoreanddifferentsupport,creatingtheneedforacorporateITsupport

functionthatdiffersfromcurrentpracticebybeingmoremany-sidedandflexible,andpotentially

moreintegratedwithoperationaltrainingandmanagement.Thecycleofstepsthereforemakesclear

howexternal,socialandpersonalfactorshaveimplicationsnotonlyforthespecificapplicationsof

introducedtechnologybutalsoatanorganisationallevel.Furtherimplicationsmayalsoemergefrom

17

thegradualspreadofITliteracyontheonehandandtaskredesign(e.g.tosupportoutsourcingor

administrativefunctions)ontheother.

CONCLUSION

Anticipatingfutureuseisachallengingtaskthatentailsahighlevelofuncertainty.Inorderto

improvethedesignoffutureuser-productarrangementsweproposetheapplicationofscenario

techniquesindesigninformedbytheproductimpactmodelfromtechnicalmediation.Workingwith

usescenariosandfuturescenariosinformedbyproductimpacttheoryhelpstoanticipatefuture

user-productarrangementsinnewways.Itmakesitpossibletotakeaccountofimpactsof

technologythatpeoplethemselvesareonlyvaguelyawareofandthereforeoftenremainhiddenin

userresearchbyinterviews.Inasimilarwayourapproachenhancesscenarioplanning.Insteadof

consideringjustwhichtechnicalandwhichsocialdevelopmentsmaycoincideandmatchmoreor

lesswell,theproductimpactapproachmakesitpossibleforscenariostobecompiledonthebasisof

aninformedjudgementofhowtechnicalandsocialfactorsinfluenceeachother.

Thecombinationofapproachesthusresultsincontributionstoforecastingstudiesandtechniques,

aswellastodealingwithuncertaintyaboutfutureproductuseindesignpractice.Thematchingof

technicalpossibilitiesandsocietaldevelopmentsisakeyprocessinforecastingandanticipating

futureuser-productarrangements.Thesocietaldevelopmentrepresentedbymulti-generational

workforcesistypicaloftheforceswhichcaneasilybeoverlookedbydesignerswhosefocusison

micro-aspectsofusabilityandwehavearguedthatitisnecessarytoexaminethetechnology

mediationaspectsinsuchadiverseenvironment,andtheconsequentdesignimperatives.Weused

theproductimpactmodelwhichoffersabroadoverviewofdifferentfiguresoftechnicalmediation,

butalsoacategorizationwhichsupportsadaptiontoothermethodsandpracticalapplication.

Theindirectproductimpacts(above-the-headandbehind-the-back)helptoinformthecompilation

andevaluationoffuturescenariosinthescenarioplanningforecastingtechnique.Thefocusisshifted

tofutureinteractionscenariosinsuchawaythatdonotonlythescenarioscomparesocialand

technicalfactors,butunderstandingofthemutualinfluencingisemployedfortheconstructionof

futureinteractionscenarios.Thisisanewfocusinscenarioplanningwhichhelpstostimulate

imaginingpossiblesocio-technicalarrangements,andtherebycontributestoforecastingtechniques.

Wehavealsocombinedthisperspectiveonforecastingwithscenariobaseddesign.Thedirect

productimpacts(before-the-eyeandto-the-hand)canbeappliedtoinformthescenariosusedin

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user-centredandparticipatorydesignmethods.Itisanenrichmentofscenariobaseddesign

methodologytoaddproductimpactonuserbehaviourandalsothemorelongtermdevelopmentsof

scenarioplanning.

Finallywehavediscussedanorder,acycle,illustratinghowtheinteractingscenariosofdifferent

scoperelatetoeachotherandhaveimplicationsfordesignpractice.Andwehaveillustratedour

theoreticalexplorationwithexamplesthatarerelevantforthethemeofworkingfacilitiesand

behavioursinrelationtoamulti-generationalworkforce.Technologymaybeappliedasameansto

supportageingworkersbutwillsimultaneouslyhaveimpactsonotherworkersandtherangeofuses

madebyallofthemwillhaveimplicationsbothforthefurtherdevelopmentoftechnologyandfor

theorganisationalenvironmentsinwhichitisdeployed.Thusourtheoreticalapproachandexamples

makeusbetterawareoftheeffectsnewtechnologyhasonworkingbehaviours.Ourexamples

suggestthattheseeffectsmayjustaswellgointhedirectionofaugmentingthedividebetween

generations,andfullattentioniscalledfortopreventormanagethis.Onedesignandorganisation

challengeseemstobe:HowtodevelopICTworkingfacilitiesandserviceswhichbothsufficiently

guidelessconfident,lessexperiencedorolderworkersbutdonotconfineandfrustrateother

sectionsoftheworkforce.

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