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Ken ColburnPrincipal and US Program Director
The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®Nancy SeidmanSenior Advisor
December 17, 2019
University of Nebraska at OmahaFor NPPD, OPPD, LES
Decarbonization:Considerations for Nebraska
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What’s required for…
Decarbonization
Energy Efficiency(Writ Large)
BeneficialElectrification
Energy Optimization
(DERs, GEBs, Grid, Flex Load)
Clean Energy/RE
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…As Well as Political Support
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Pathways to Decarbonization
Roadmap 2050
1. Decarbonize the power sector2. Electrify end-uses3. Use energy efficiently
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1. Power Sector – Well Underway
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So Power Sector Emissions Are Declining
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700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Lbs C
O 2pe
r MW
h
Carbon Intensity of US Electric Sector Generation 2005-2030
Historic Projected with CPP
And Will Continue to Do So…
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
“As the world transitions to a low-carbon economy, as much as $10 trillion of fossil fuel assets could become ‘stranded’ as regulations and [cheaper] clean energy sources make those investments economically unviable.”
– Moody’s, quoted in Financial Times, July 4, 2019
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Stranded Cost Risks Loom for Latecomers
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9
But the Power Sector Can’t Do It Alone
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2. Electrify Energy End-Uses
1. Saves Customers Money Over Long-Term
2. Reduces Environmental Impacts
3. Enables Better Grid Management
We already talked about beneficial electrification
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Heating Oil:
11
Emissions Benefit: Oil Space Heat to Heat Pump CO2 Example
60 mmBtu heating @ 3,413 Btu / kWh@ COP of 3.0 = 6,000 kWh100% coal = 6.0 tons CO2100% gas = 2.4 tons CO2100% RE = 0.0 tons CO2
600 gallons/ year = 80 mmBtu / year@ 75% efficiency = 60 mmBtu heating@ 161 #CO2/mmBtu = 6.4 tons CO2
Heat Pump:
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Heating Oil:
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Member Costs & Services: Oil Space Heat to Heat Pump Cost Example
6,000 kWh / year x 12¢ / kWh= $720 / year
Fuel savings: $1,080 / yearLower cost to consumer; 3-6 year payback
600 gallons / year @ $3.00 / gallon= $1,800 / year
Heat Pump:
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Electrifying Transportation Similarly Positive
Source: JJ MCoy, ”Building “good load” to reduce carbon emissions”, 2016.http://nwenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Transpo-Electrification-TE-Workpaper-1-25-2016-FINAL.pdf.zip
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Electric Vehicles Are A Lot Like Water Heaters
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Water Heater• 4.4 – 5.5 kW• 2,000 – 4,000
kWh/year• Can avoid morning
and early evening peak charging
• Tank usually supplies a full day’s supply
Electric Vehicle• 3.3 – 6.6 kW• 2,000 – 4,000
kWh/year• Can avoid morning
and early evening peak charging
• Batteries likely equal a full day’s supply
Really!
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Measure Life Matters
Source: RAP, Beneficial Electrification of Transportation, January 2019
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Consider Cost & Emissions Over Time…
Trends favor electric end-uses as cheaper and cleaner over time.
Source: RAP, Beneficial Electrification in the Public Interest, January 2019
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3. Energy Efficiency Remains Vital
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Today’s EE/DSM “Eddy”
Fossil ResourcesRenewables & DERsCapacity Resources
Ancillary ServicesUtility EE/DSM
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
• “Law of Big Numbers” can made EE work like any other DER• Now can value (and compensate) EE’s grid benefits, flexibility,
non-energy benefits, etc.
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Markets: DERs & “Metered EE”
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“We must use less electricity where we can,
so we can use more where we should.”
– Former EPRI CEO Steve Specker
About RAPThe Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® is an independent, non-partisan, non-governmental organization dedicated to accelerating the transition to a clean, reliable, and efficient energy future.
Learn more about our work at raponline.org
Ken ColburnPrincipal & US DirectorThe Regulatory Assistance Project®[email protected]
Nancy SeidmanSenior AdvisorThe Regulatory Assistance Project®[email protected]
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