Debating Group

• Yasamin• Jerome• Hugo• Errol• Matt• Martin

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

What does it mean?

• To describe the persuasive power of numbers

• The use of statistics to bloster weak arguments

• The tendency of people to desparage statistics that do not support their positions

• To doubt statistics that used to prove an apponent’s point

Mark Twain Benjamin Disraeli

The Persuasive Power Of Statistics

• Numbers are powerful. This is one of the reasons why statistics can be such persuasive pieces of evidence.

• People often mistake statistics as facts.

• We too often accept them as the truth without ever questioning their appropriateness and validity.

• Many people cannot read stats properly and so misinterpret their meaning.

• Methods of data collection can be inaccurate and manipulated in favour of a particular viewpoint.

Who?

• October 2010 issue of Scientific American that shows the results of an online survey conducted to examine the trust people put into science and scientists. The survey:

• 21,000 people responded online

• Results: People trust scientists more than friends or family, and much more than elected officials and religious authorities.

• Do these numbers aptly represent the feelings of society?

• No! Survey from biased sample. Conducted on the Scientific American and Nature websites, the poll represents the feeling of people that went to those websites for a reason, which was in all probability a scientific reason. Data represents the feelings of a largely scientifically literate sample rather than a random sampling of society, in which case the numbers might be quite different.

• Data can be used creatively and manipulated in such a way that favours your position. This can be achieved by presenting charts/graphs in numerous different ways.

Data Manipulation

Absolute Stats vs Relative Stats

It doesn't seem fair to not factor in the wealth of a country when assessing its military budget. So, if you take military budgets as a proportion of each country's GDP, a very different picture emerges.

Who has the most soldiers?

Using whole numbers creates a skewed picture. China obviously has a huge population. Their army is bound to be huge.

If you adjust the parameters to a relative view, the image shifts dramatically. China plummets to a staggering 164th in the world league table.

Relative stats give an accurate overall account while absolute stats mislead us.

Statistics On Crime

 

Crime and statistics

Crime statistics are designed to:

• Give a general picture of crime in the UK• Track changes in crime rate & types of crime• Provide intel on which areas need Police attention• Track performance of police & if crimes are put to justice 

Crime, Lies and Statistics

• Crime statistics have a huge influence on public opinion 

• People believe statistics as facts • Most people don't know how to read statistics• Creates a negative affect so is usually use to rally people to

their opinion • Examples of manipulation: 

o Politicians use it for personal agenda and electionso Government use it when deciding budget use and

promote/ensure local safetyo Activists use it to explain hate crimes

Overhaul On UK Crime Statistics

• In 2000, the government admitted they give a false picture of the true extent of criminal activity

• Old way of collecting and recording statistics left gaps• Led to inaccurate findings and misled reports• Changes were being drafted and report concluded in 2006

Crime & Political Agenda

• Chris Grayling manipulate statistics to suggest a rise of violent crime during Labour's reign of power 

• Compared British cities to TV series The Wire set in Baltimore

• New system of recording crime figures introduced by Home Office in 2002

• Figures rose due to Police asked to record every complaint• Violent crime figures rose more than a third in one year

“When The Wire comes to Britain’s streets, it is the poor who suffer most. It is the poor who are the ones who have borne the brunt of the surge in violence under this Government”

Crime & Political Agenda continued....• Labour Home Secretary Alan

Johnson said:“they have continually misled the public about crime. Up and down the country Conservative candidates are using these dodgy statistics""Since 1997 crime has gone down by 36 per cent and violent crime by 41 per cent.”

• Government using a different set of data to show fall of crime - British Crime Survey, 

• Originally an academic exercise to complement police figures now regarded in the Home Office closer to true figures. 

• Suggest no one knows what the true picture is which could be Labour’s intention to avoid crime for their policy

The Threat of Misused Crime Statistics

• The media is the biggest distribution of misled stats as they report any story to make headlines

• Causes wide spread panic and prejudice in worst case scenario • Prejudice include:

o crimes against sexualityo crimes related to raceo crimes related to religion

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