DDGS Supply/Demand Outlook EPAC June 8 2011. 2010 DDGS Market Record Production Record Domestic Use...
If you can't read please download the document
DDGS Supply/Demand Outlook EPAC June 8 2011. 2010 DDGS Market Record Production Record Domestic Use Record export year –China Expanding Markets –Pacific
2010 DDGS Market Record Production Record Domestic Use Record
export year China Expanding Markets Pacific Rim Countries Expanded
Capacity of PNW Myco-toxins
Slide 3
Supply
Slide 4
U.S. DDG Production and Exports
Slide 5
DDG Balance Table 2006- 072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-12
Carryin (Sep 1) Production13,95121,29426,42233,25337,31837,696
Imports191145251409550 Total
Supply14,14221,43926,67333,66237,86838,246 Domestic
Use12,36117,51821,70425,37829,86829,246
Exports1,7803,9214,9698,2838,5009,000 Total
Use14,14121,43926,67333,66138,36838,246 Carryout (Aug 31) Export
ratio12.8%18.4%18.8%24.9%22.8%23.9% X 1,000 Metric Tons
Slide 6
Slide 7
Demand Outlook
Slide 8
U.S. Cattle on Feed
Slide 9
U.S. Swine Industry Mycotoxin issues limited inclusion in 2010
Many buyers need to use DDG to profit from feeding at all Average
inclusion of 30% in finishing rations, and 50% in gestation and
lactation rations Recent usage at 60% in finishing rations
Slide 10
US Swine Industry Fastest growing user of DDG High priced corn
and soybean meal persuades producers to higher inclusion rates $
per pound of gain DDG valued for its protein, energy, phosphorus,
and intestinal health benefits
Slide 11
USDA U.S. Swine Industry
Slide 12
Pro Exporter
Slide 13
Exports
Slide 14
U.S. DDG Production and Exports
Slide 15
Export Table Country2009 YR2010 YR Jan/Mar 2010 Jan/Mar 2011 %
Change Net Change World
Total5,650,9648,998,0461,872,7922,019,8768147,084
China542,4242,528,697335,311323,414-4-11,897
Mexico1,458,4351,644,641439,485506,0241566,539
Canada819,7431,021,185254,205218,721-14-35,484 South
Korea269,854506,475157,24770,797-55-86,450
Vietnam250,638431,133110,845118,10877,263
Turkey377,707395,22014,16027,2299213,069
Thailand297,545291,36453,53580,3315026,796
Ireland100,623275,06884,57766,726-21-17,851
Indonesia200,741252,08052,50550,309-42,196
Japan221,800217,53659,00157,949-2-1,052 In Metric Tons
Slide 16
FOB US GULF & CORN PRICES US Grains Council
Slide 17
China 2010 Imports up 466% from 2009 2011 Imports currently
down 4% Anti-Dumping Lawsuit against U.S. producers At current pace
China will import 50% less than 2010
Slide 18
Mexico 2010 Imports up 11% Current 2011 imports up 18% High
priced corn and freight advantage Lack of gulf demand led to
increase export numbers Sorghum planting down 5%
Slide 19
Canada Consistently top 3 importer of DDG Imported 819,743 tons
2009 2010 imported 1,021,085 tons Up 24% from 2009
Slide 20
Exports Cont. South Korea 2010 Imports up 187% Hoof and Mouth
Disease 2011 imports down 55% Turkey 2010 imports up 5% 2011 up 92%
High growth potential GMO issues
Slide 21
Product Transparency Know what you are buying Weekly nutrient
profile testing Get more out of your purchase
Slide 22
Product Transparency
Slide 23
Slide 24
Slide 25
Anticipated Specifications of Great Falls DDGS 36% to 42%
protein 4% to 6% fat More Complete Amino Acid Profile Better
handling Characteristics than corn DDGS
Slide 26
Ethanol
Slide 27
Copyright 2011 DTN/The Progressive Farmer (A Telvent Brand).
Reprinted by Permission