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David N. Wear, Southern Research Station
John G. Greis, Southern Region USDA Forest Service
Why?
• Because citizens of the South and nation rely on the > 200 million acres of southern forests for many goods, services, and values…
• And because multiple pressures are affecting forests…
• The USFS and SGSF chartered the Southern Forest Futures Project to evaluate the future…
What is the SFFP?
• The Southern Forest Futures Project (SFFP) provides a science-based “futuring” analysis for the forests of the southeastern United States
• The ultimate goal is to translate these science findings into useable information for management and policy making
What is being produced by the SFFP?
• Phase I (May 2011): Region-wide – Technical Report
• 17 Chapters exploring forecasts and meta-issues
– Summary Report • Compact synthesis of findings and implications
• Phase II (Winter 2012): Subregional – Subregional Management Implication Reports
• Forthcoming translation of findings for 5 subregions in the South
SFFP Subregions
How was the SFFP Conducted?
• Chartered by USFS and SGSF
• Public Scoping – 15 public meetings;
>600 people • Technical Analysis
– >40 scientists/analysts • Peer Review
– Highly Influential Scientific Assessment
Management and restoration implications
Subregional Analysis
Implications for various ecosystem services
Meta-Issue Analysis
Forecast of resource conditions and uses
Forecasting Analysis
Storyline A1B Storyline B2
High Timber Prices Cornerstone A(MIROC GCM)
Cornerstone C(CSIRO GCM)
Low Timber Prices Cornerstone B (CSIRO GCM)
Cornerstone D(Hadley GCM)
Cornerstone E(based on A, with high planting rates)
Cornerstone F(based on D, with low planting rates)
Cornerstone Futures
• Defined by – Population/income
forecasts from RPA/IPCC
– Climate forecasts from RPA/IPCC
– Product market futures
– Tree planting intensities
• 6 Cornerstones (A-F) Cornerstone futures provide a foundation for exploring a range of effects. Analytical futures provide additional insights into markets and other questions.
Cornerstone Futures—drivers
• Downscaled data – County-level from RPA – Population growth
(annual) – Personal incomes
(annual) – Climate data
(monthly) • Precipitation • Temperature
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000
2006 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
thou
sand
peo
ple
A1B B2 A2
Cornerstone Futures-drivers
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
$ pe
r mbf
(200
9=10
0)
$ pe
r cor
d (2
009=
100)
S Pulp H Pulp S Saw H Saw
• Price data – Growth rates applied to
Timber Mart South subregions (26)
– 2006 base • Planting data
– Planting rates applied for forest types within survey units
– Based on empirical planting rates from FIA plot records
US Forest Assessment System
Wood Products
Projections
Forest Inventory
Projections
Land Use Projections
Water Projections
Population projections
Technology Projections
Economic Projections
Scenario Server
Climate Data Server
Forest Inventory Data
Server
US Forest Products
Model
Forest Dynamics Model
All Land Use Model
Wildlife Projections
Carbon Projections
Forest Dynamics Model
Forest inventory
(2010)
Forest transition
model
Forest inventory
(2020)
Objective: forecast structure of forest inventory for a given future. Choice of the forest metric is important. We chose to explicitly model the development of the forest inventory… consistent with its area-frame design. … a national forecasting system that is consistent with the national monitoring system This allows for direct comparison of forecasted inventories with historical records…. Also allows for constant updating with new inventories and challenging hypotheses using new inventories.
Harvesting (2010-2020)
Wood Products markets
Climate (2010-2020) Land Use
Change
Ten Key findings Next we present a set of ten key findings that provide a synthesis of the findings contained in the 17-chapter technical report… Each finding represents work from two or more chapters…
Key Finding 1
• These factors need to be considered in combination
• Socioeconomic factors dominate climate early
A combination of four primary factors will interact to reshape the South’s forests: •Population growth •Climate change •Timber markets •Invasive species
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Mill
ion
peo
ple
Cornerstones A and B Cornerstones C and D
12
14
16
18
20
22
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Aver
age
annu
al te
mpe
ratu
re (°
C)
Cornerstone A (MIROC3.2 + A1B) Cornerstone B (CSIROMK3.5 + A1B)
Cornerstone C (CSIROMK2 + B2) Cornerstone D (HadCM3 + B2)
Key Finding 2
• Urbanization : 30-43 million acres by 2060
• Forest losses: 11-23 million acres by 2060 Urbanization is
forecasted to result in forest losses, increased carbon emissions, and stress on other forest resources
Land use changes
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Chan
ge in
are
a (p
erce
nt)
Appalachian-Cumberland Coastal Plain Mid-South Mississippi Alluvial Valley Piedmont
Forest Carbon Forecasts
11800
11900
12000
12100
12200
12300
12400
12500
12600
12700
12800
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Mill
ion
Tons
A
B
C
D
E
F
Key Finding 3
• Supply continues to grow • With moderate demand growth: no
upward pressure on the prices • Orderly change –up to 70% expansion
Southern forests could sustain higher timber production levels, but demand is the limiting factor and demand growth is uncertain
-1000
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
1977 1987 1996 2006 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 m
illio
n cu
bic
feet
S. Sawtimber S. pulpwood H. Sawtimber H. Pulpwood
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
$/m
bf
(saw
timbe
r)
$/co
rd
(pul
pwoo
d pr
oduc
ts)
S Pulp H Pulp S Saw H Saw
Growing Stock Forecasts
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Billi
on C
ubic
Fee
t A
B
C
D
E
F
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Billi
on C
ubic
Fee
t A B C D E F
Softwood
Hardwood
Growing Stock Forecasts
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Billi
on C
ubic
Fee
t
Hardwood(A) Softwood (A) Softwood (D) Hardwood(D)
Key Finding 4
• Bioenergy: highest potential for demand growth
• Demands quickly exhaust wood waste and lead to strong demand for softwood pulpwood
• Bioenergy would compete with traditional wood products
• Forecasts range from an additional 54% to 113% over 2006 timber harvest volumes by 2050.
Bioenergy futures could bring demands that are large enough to trigger changes in forest conditions, management, and markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Mill
ion
gree
n to
ns
Year
Low-consumption scenario Medium-consumption scenario
High-consumption scenario Urban wood waste
Forest product industry
Pine plantation response to market demands
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Planted pine Natural pine
Oak–pine Upland hardwood
Lowland hardwood
47 million acres
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Planted pine Natural pine
Oak–pine Upland hardwood
Lowland hardwood
67 million acres
Plantation response ranges between forecasts for Cornerstones E and F
Key Finding 5
• Futures lead to increased water stress in several areas of the South.
• The future of water quality in developing watersheds will be affected by the area and condition of forests. A combination of
factors has the potential to decrease water availability and degrade quality. Forest conservation and management can help to mitigate these effects
Supply Demand
Climate
Land use Population
Reservoirs, groundwater, infrastructure
Water price, Economics
Key Finding 6
• Key invasive insect and disease pests grew over the past 10 years
• Area of plant invasions could expand from 19 million to about 27 million acres in the next 50 years.
Invasive species create a great but uncertain potential for ecological changes and economic loss
Key Finding 7
• Wildland fire potential is likely to increase over the next 50 years
• Major wildfire events are also likely to occur more often.
• Several obstacles may impede the ability to practice prescribed burning
• Private and State firefighting capacity has been reduced
An extended fire season combined with obstacles to prescribed burning will increase wildland fire-related hazards
Key Finding 8
• Private owners hold more than 86 percent of forests in the South
• Forest investment instruments increase “churn”—potential for rapid change
• Family forest owners are likewise subject to dynamic forces which encourage parcelization and fragmentation.
Private owners control forest futures and ownership patterns have become less stable
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Industry TIMO REIT Other
Acre
s Commercial Forest Ownership
1998
2003
2008
Key Finding 9
• Coastal Plain forests: rising sea levels, intensifying management, spreading invasive species, and urbanization affect species
• The Appalachian-Cumberland subregion contains a large number of threatened plants and imperiled vertebrates (especially amphibians) coincident with development
Threats to species of conservation concern are widespread but are especially concentrated in the Coastal Plain and Appalachian-Cumberland subregions.
Federal status plant species
Key Finding 10 Increasing populations would increase demand for forest based recreation while the availability of land to meet these needs is forecasted to decline 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Nat
iona
l for
est v
isits
(mill
ions
)
Southern national forest visits by site-type, 2008 to 2060
Day-use developed sites Overnight-use developed sites Wilderness General forest areas
In conclusion…
• Our scope does not include prescriptions for policymaking, yet policy is an important factor in the forecasts.
• The unfolding of the future will clearly depend on myriad policies including those affecting trade, domestic taxes, and perhaps most directly, policies designed to encourage bioenergy production
Thanks for listening…