ESTIMATION OF LIVESTOCK DENSITIES IN EUROPE

Sarah Mubareka, Carlo Lavalle

European CommissionJoint Research CentreInstitute for Environment and SustainabilityTP 267Via Enrico Fermi, 274921027 Ispra Italy+39 0332 78 6741sarah.mubareka@ext.jrc.ec.europa.eucarlo.lavalle@jrc.ec.europa.eu

DATASETS IN PACKAGE:FAO raw maps: “ *\Livestock_densities\RAW_FAO_dataset_EU\(livestock category name)05_1km ” + manual

Corrected FAO maps: “ *\Livestock_densities\FINAL_mosaics_etrs\mos_(livestock category name)05_corr.tif ”

CoCo regional statistics: “ *\Livestock_densities\FAO_CoCo_Regional_statistics\ (countryFIPS)_(animalcategory).csv “ In this data series we also compare the CoCo data with the FAO data on a REGIONAL basis for 2 years: 2000 and 2005 (Table 1)

TABLE 1: EXAMPLE OF REGIONAL STATISTICS PROVIDED WITH DATASETS

Region Cattle00_CAPRI Cattle00_FAO Cattle05_CAPRI Cattle05_FAODE11 386410 307924 337770 273818DE12 133860 192502 138250 171204DE13 282700 378367 249840 336950DE14 449730 468778 371740 416856DE21 965170 1179030 849930 1048990DE22 517340 455843 461560 405553DE23 435700 254743 399090 226520DE24 274800 176763 254490 157183DE25 346020 250081 315950 222382DE26 205920 200183 193350 178010DE27 690840 706626 629490 628559DE40 793700 0 689930 0DE71 164820 169774 151060 150970DE72 161770 125054 147980 111203DE73 264090 140319 232360 124777

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DE80 749120 919326 646320 817562DE91 198790 222871 213620 198186DE92 338690 329080 316760 292631DE93 848510 1104220 704650 981917DE94 1144490 1456320 933960 1295250DEA1 241490 310022 221680 276017DEA2 256000 402972 236450 358574DEA3 408790 543806 360810 484131DEA4 259640 265364 238990 235972DEA5 230900 295055 211230 262374DEB1 189860 218477 173140 194279DEB2 192420 204725 175620 182059DEB3 122560 187225 117510 166524DEC0 63460 87447 84350 77800DED0 612490 394566 548520 350890DEE0 559370 455665 480840 405196DEF0 1123680 1267190 1015600 1126580DEG0 470240 244084 432770 217049

METHODOLOGYThe map series was created using the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) livestock density maps1 for 2005, actual livestock figures for 2005 as given by the Complete and Consistent database (CoCo) made available through the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact Modeling System2 (CAPRI), and a series of water requirements per livestock type data from the literature.

MAPPING LIVESTOCK DENSITIES The FAO livestock density maps are a 1 kilometer-resolution gridded product with global coverage, detailed in terms of livestock decomposition. In this study, we use the livestock density maps for 2005 estimates on sheep, goats, cattle, poultry and pigs.

The CoCo data is given at aggregates of regions we call “CAPRI-regions”. These regions correspond for the most part to NUTS-2 regions (Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics3 at level 2) with few exceptions in Germany, the UK and Italy for example where the regions correspond to NUTS-1 delimitations. For non EU countries only, the CAPRI-regions correspond to national level boundaries. Most of the data within CoCo are derived from EUROSTAT (Farm and market balances, economic indicators, acreages, herd sizes and national input output coefficients). The datasets used in CoCo, and the derivation of

1 http://www.fao.org/AG/againfo/resources/en/glw/GLW_dens.html, consulted February 23 20122 http://www.capri-model.org, consulted February 23 20123 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/nuts_nomenclature/introduction

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secondary data and imputation techniques are described in detail in Britz and Witzke (2008), p.14-26.

The CoCo data is more refined in terms of livestock typologies, but was aggregated to match this FAO classification and the two datasets were compared. The different cattle activities in the CoCo database correspond well with the FAO summed heads of cattle for the same regions, there is little discrepancy between the two datasets. The CoCo dataset assumes newborn calves to be born on the 1st of January which enter immediately into the category of heifers and bulls for fattening a year after their birth (January 1st of successive year). Thus the animals are counted on a yearly basis. The correspondences between FAO and CoCo data in terms of sums of heads per CAPRI region were evaluated at two levels: for EU 27 and for EU27 + Norway, Kosovo, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Croatia, Macedonia, Albania and Turkey in order to begin to understand the reliability of the CoCo data with respect to the FAO data. It was found that the correspondences were higher between FAO and CoCo at EU27 level for cattle and sheep than for all CAPRI-regions together. This was not true however for pigs or poultry. Given this mixed response, an analysis was made on country-level data. The degree of uncertainty for the FAO dataset, using CoCo as a reference showed which countries were compatible between the datasets. Figure 1 highlights the discrepancies between the two datasets, re-ordering the output to show the order of countries for which the datasets are most compatible to those which are least compatible. In some graphs, the countries with very high incompatibilities were removed in order to facilitate the readability of the figures.

a.

b.

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c.

d.

FIGURE 1. COUNTRIES IN ORDER OF UNCERTAINTY (0=NO UNCERTAINTY) FOR FAO DENSITY MAP SUMS PER CAPRI REGION FOR 2005, USING COCO DATA FOR 2005 AS A REFERENCE.

(A) CATTLE (NO, KO, MK, BA VALUES EXCEED 50 AND ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE GRAPH TO FACILITATE LEGIBILITY)

(B) PIGS

(C) POULTRY

(D) SHEEP AND GOATS (TR VALUES EXCEED 1795 AND ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE GRAPH TO FACILITATE LEGIBILITY)

For pigs, poultry, sheep and goats, the correction coefficient was applied at regional level. This means that the sums given by FAO are rescaled to match the sums given by CoCo. The rescaling is done equally for all cells within the region. The original livestock density maps from the FAO were corrected using the correction coefficient for each CAPRI region only if, based on the exercise described above, the correction coefficient did not surpass a threshold of ten. For those regions whose correction coefficient was above the cut-off point, the FAO data was plugged in without any correction.

For the cattle, the situation is more complicated given the large discrepancies in water requirements within this category. First, detailed density maps per cattle category were created based on the cattle layer from the FAO. These were computed using the CoCo data by redistributing the proportion of each of the cattle type evenly over each region. To do this, each CAPRI region cattle number is subdivided into its proportion of sub-categories

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using the CoCo data as a reference. Equation 1 shows the contributing sub-categories to the “Cattle” category.

CATA = ∑ DCOH,DCOL,SCOW,HEIR,HEIH,HEIL,BULH,BULL,CAMR,CAFR,CAMF,CAFF (EQ. 1)

whereCATA=All cattle activitiesDCOH=Dairy cows high yieldDCOL=Dairy cows low yieldSCOW=Other cowsHEIR=Heifers breedingHEIH= Heifers fattening low weightHEIL=Heifers fattening high weightBULH=Male adult cattle high weightBULL= Male adult cattle low weightCAMR= male calves for raisingCAFR= female calves for raisingCAMF=male calves for fatteningCAFF= female calves for fattening

Each of the above classes consumes a different amount of water. The statistics available in the literature are not detailed enough to assign a water consumption value to each of the above classes so these are aggregated as follows, based on the available water uptake statistics (Equations 2-7):

HEI = ∑ HEIR,HEIH,HEIL (EQ. 2)

BUL = ∑ BULH,BULL (EQ. 3)

DCOL = DCOL (EQ. 4)

DCOH = DCOH (EQ. 5)

CAL = ∑ CAMR,CAFR,CAMF,CAFF (EQ. 6)

SCOW = SCOW (EQ. 7)

In total, a series of nine livestock density maps were created: Sheep and goats, poultry, pigs, heifers, bulls, calves, high-yield dairy cows, low-yield dairy cows and “other” cows. A summary of the methodology for weighting the correction coefficients for all livestock classes is shown in Figure 2.

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FIGURE 2. CORRECTION COEFFICIENTS BASED ON COCO DATA FOR 2005 ARE APPLIED TO THE FAO LIVESTOCK DENSITY MAPS FOR 2005.

Figure 3 shows an example of a resulting map (for high yield dairy cows). Grey regions are those whose correction coefficient was not implemented because it surpassed the correction coefficient. The correction coefficient could only be applied to the regions for which there was data in CoCo. Following the correction, the maps were combined with the FAO dataset in a mosaic procedure in order to ensure the full coverage of the area.

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FIGURE 3. AN EXAMPLE OF A FAO LIVESTOCK DENSITY MAP FOR 2005, CORRECTED FOR THE TRUE NUMBER OF HEADS ACCORDING TO THE COCO DATABASE FOR 2005 (HIGH-YIELD DAIRY COWS).

The maps were compared to the statistics found in the literature. For example, the dairy cows map was visually compared to the table given in the IPTS report of February 20 2009 and reproduced below. Table 2 shows that the biggest population of dairy cows in 2008, according to EUROSTAT, is in Bretagne (France, FR52) and Lombardia (Italy, ITC4), followed by Mazowieckie (Poland, PL12).

Table 2. Top 16 regions for dairy cows in EU 27 (source: IPTS 2009).

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Figure 3 shows the overlay of the regions cited in Table 1 with the sum of the high yield dairy cow population per region.

FIGURE 3. THE SUMS OF HIGH YIELD DAIRY COWS FOR THE REGIONS IN THE EU27, DERIVED FROM THE SIMULATED LIVESTOCK DENSITY MAPS. THE RED POLYGONS ARE THE REGIONS WHICH, ACCORDING TO THE DATA GIVEN BY EUROSTAT IN 2008, ARE THOSE WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF DAIRY COWS.

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SOFTWAREESRI ArcMap 10.0 software was used throughout the project for the visualization of the maps and for extracting the initial subset of the FAO dataset of interest to us. The reading of the CoCo data; derivation of the correction coefficient for the FAO livestock density maps; and the actual computation of the water requirements’ series using the air temperature time series per livestock type was done using IDL 7.1.2. The maps were resampled to a 5km grid using ArcMap 10.0 and converted to ASCII grids. PC RASTER was used in successive steps to prepare the maps for entry into the hydrological model LISFLOOD.

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