Data Digest: Georgia

June 2012

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Georgia’s economic performance has improved steadily since December 2009. Although it

remains well below the U.S. level, Georgia’s coincident economic indicator for April is at its

highest level since December 2008.

2

About the Coincident Economic Indicator

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Coincident Economic IndicatorApril 2012

United States

Georgia

Jan 2001 = 100

Georgia’s employment has slowly improved since the the end of the recession. Payroll

employment is now at early-2009 levels.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

3

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Georgia Payroll EmploymentApril 2012

Thousands,

seasonally adjusted

Total job growth in Georgia is greater than year-ago levels and most industries are beginning

to see modest improvement. All industries except education and health care experienced job

losses during the downturn with construction and manufacturing being especially hard hit.

State government continues to lose jobs.

4

Note: A reading of 0.0 in the “trough to present” measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the

“peak to trough” measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance "trough to present" is the percent change from

January 2007 to present.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

2.5

1.4

3.5

1.4

4.0

4.0

1.0

1.8

13.3

11.9

2.9

1.0

0.3

0.0

1.1

-8.2

-37.5

-22.3

-11.4

-10.3

-7.8

-17.1

-12.0

-11.8

0.0

-7.7

-6.8

-3.3

-8.0

-6.6

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

Total

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Transport/Warehousing/Utilities

Information

Financial services

Business services

Education & healthcare

Leisure & hospitality

Other services

Federal government

State government

Local government

Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: GeorgiaApril 2012

Percent change peak to trough

Percent change trough to present

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Many of the larger sectors experienced expanding momentum in April. Information

employment improved, while federal government, state government, construction, other

services, and financial services employment contracted.

5

About Employment Momentum

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

3-m

onth

avera

ge a

nnualized p

erc

ent

change

Year-over-year percent change

Employment Momentum by Sector: GeorgiaApril 2012

Business services

Manufacturing

Construction

Wholesale trade Retail trade

Transportation/

Warehouse/

Utilities Information

Financial services

Education and health care

Leisure and hospitality

Other services

Federal government

State government

Local government

ExpandingImproving

Contracting Slipping

Job losses in many of Georgia’s metropolitan areas were quite severe during the downturn;

Dalton, Augusta, and Albany continue to shed jobs. The state as a whole has added back jobs

and total employment is above year-ago levels.

6

Note: A reading of 0.0 in the “trough to present” measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in

the “peak to trough” measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance "trough to present" is the percent change

from January 2007 to present.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

2.5

0.0

4.5

3.2

0.0

2.6

3.0

0.0

10.7

3.2

1.4

0.8

3.3

0.7

-8.2

-9.7

-9.8

-8.3

-5.4

-15.9

-4.9

-21.5

-10.5

-8.2

-12.8

-7.8

-10.5

-1.8

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

Georgia

Albany

Athens

Atlanta

Augusta

Brunswick

Columbus

Dalton

Gainesville

Macon

Rome

Savannah

Valdosta

Warner Robins

Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: GeorgiaApril 2012

Percent change peak to trough

Percent change trough to present

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Employment momentum in Atlanta and some of the smaller metro areas was in the

“expanding” quadrant in April. Momentum in Albany, Augusta, Dalton, and Rome contracted,

while Savannah, Warner Robins, and Brunswick saw some improvement.

7

About Employment Momentum

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

3-m

onth

avera

ge a

nnualized p

erc

ent

change

Year-over-year percent change

Employment Momentum by Metro Area: GeorgiaApril 2012

Gainesville

Atlanta

Brunswick

Albany

Savannah

Dalton

Augusta

Macon

Valdosta

Rome

Athens

Warner Robins

ExpandingImproving

Contracting Slipping

Columbus

Since August 2010, Georgia’s employment momentum has remained in the “expanding”

quadrant each month except for September 2011 when it slipped slightly.

8

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

About Employment Momentum Track

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

3-m

onth

avera

ge p

erc

ent

change,

annualized

Year-over-year percent change

Employment Momentum TrackJanuary 2007–April 2012

ExpandingImproving

Contracting Slipping

Although it remains higher than the overall U.S. average, Georgia’s unemployment rate has

declined each month since July 2011. The state unemployment rate fell to 8.9 percent in

April, and most of the state’s metro areas are at or below year-ago levels.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

9

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Unemployment RateApril 2012

Georgia

United States

Percent of labor force

Source: U.S Department of Labor–Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly but remain near levels last seen in

mid-2008.

10

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claimsthrough May 19, 2012

4-week moving average

Source: Georgia Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Sales tax revenues increased nearly 6 percent on a year-over-year basis in April.

11

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Georgia Sales Tax RevenueApril 2012

Year-over-year percent change,

3-month average

Regional manufacturing activity accelerated in April, according to the Southeast Purchasing

Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University. Georgia’s component measured

63.8, slightly higher than the regional measure of 63.5.

12

Note: 50+ = Expansion

Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometrics Center

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Southeast Purchasing Managers IndexApril 2012

The Georgia component of the SE PMI

was 63.8 in April 2012.

The number of new home construction permits issued in Georgia during April increased

slightly; permits nationally declined slightly.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics

13

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

New Residential Home Construction PermitsApril 2012

United States (left scale)

Georgia (right scale)

Source: S&P, Haver Analytics

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver

Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Home prices in Georgia have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing

somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices have fallen again recently. Home prices in metro

Atlanta continued to fall in March and the Atlanta index remains well below the composite

index for 20 major metropolitan areas in the United States.

14

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexthrough March 2012

Atlanta

Composite 20

Jan 2000 = 100

Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics

Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession but have stabilized recently at higher

levels.

15

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Office Vacancy RateQ1 2012

United States

Atlanta

Percent

Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics

Despite the national pickup in manufacturing activity, industrial availability rates remain

elevated in Atlanta.

16

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Industrial Availability RateQ1 2012

United States

Atlanta

Percent

For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network

membership at http://www.frbatlanta.org/rein/learn/map/learn_members.cfm.

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