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National Center for Higher Education
Management Systems
nchems.org higheredinfo.org
Data Backdrop for Missouri’s State Student Financial Aid Policy
Task Force
June 26, 2018
State Goal
To reach Missouri’s state educational attainment goal of having 60 percent of working-age adults with a postsecondary credential by 2025, Missouri will need to produce an estimated
160,000additional credentials from 2014 onwards. At current rates, Missouri is on track to produce only 7,400.
2
Missouri’s Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade through College - 2016
88
51
35
24
34
83
53
37
24
35
91
64
49
36
50
Graduate from HighSchool
Enter College Are Still Enrolled inSophomore Year
Graduate within150% of Program
Time
Are 25-44 with atleast a Bachelor's
Degree
Missouri US Top State
3
For every 100 9th
graders,
Sources: U.S. Department of Education, Office of Elementary and Secondary Education, Consolidated State Performance Report, 2014–15. See
Digest of Education Statistics 2016, table 219.46; WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016
(Extraction 12-28-16); NCES, IPEDS Fall 2016 Residence & Migration Enrollment File; ef2016_c Provisional Release Data File; Fall 2016
Retention Rate File; ef2016_d Provisional Release Data File; 2015-16 Graduation Rate File; gr2016 Provisional Release Data File.
Projections of High School Graduates in Missouri
4Source: WICHE Knocking at the College Door
Projections of Public High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity
5Source: WICHE Knocking at the College Door
Missouri Population Projections by County, Adults Aged 15-24 (percent change)
6
Source: https://oa.mo.gov/budget-planning/demographic-information/population-projections/2000-2030-projectionsMethodology: https://oa.mo.gov/budget-planning/demographic-information/population-projections/methodology
Educational Attainment by County, 2012-16
7
Median Family Income by County, 2012-16 (CPI Adjusted 2016 Dollars)
8Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-16 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates; Table B19113..
Change in Median Income by County, 2005-09 to 2012-16 (CPI Adjusted 2016 Dollars)
9Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-09 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates; Table B19113, U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-16 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates; Table B19113..
Increase
No Change
Decrease
Notes:
The map to the left depicts the
change in inflation-adjusted median
family income by county. Color
coding depicts statistically
significant changes, as indicated
below. Within each county is
displayed the percent change.
Percent of Families Living in Poverty, 2016
10
Change in Percent of Individuals Living in Poverty, 2005-09 to 2012-16
11
Decrease
No Change
Increase
Notes:
The map to the left depicts the
change in share of the total
population living in poverty. Color
coding depicts statistically
significant changes, as indicated
below. Within each county is
displayed the percent change.
Unduplicated Undergraduate Headcount by Public and Private Non-Profit Sectors, 2015-16
12
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000C
alif
orn
iaTe
xas
New
Yo
rkFl
ori
da
Illin
ois
Oh
ioP
enn
sylv
ania
Mic
hig
anN
ort
h C
aro
lina
Vir
gin
iaG
eorg
iaIn
dia
na
Ari
zon
aM
assa
chu
sett
sN
ew J
erse
yW
ash
ingt
on
Mis
sou
riM
aryl
and
Wis
con
sin
Min
nes
ota
Uta
hC
olo
rad
oTe
nn
esse
eO
rego
nA
lab
ama
Lou
isia
na
Sou
th C
aro
lina
Iow
aK
entu
cky
Okl
aho
ma
Kan
sas
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Mis
siss
ipp
iA
rkan
sas
New
Mex
ico
Idah
oN
ebra
ska
New
Ham
psh
ire
Nev
ada
Wes
t V
irgi
nia
Rh
od
e Is
lan
dM
ain
eH
awai
iD
elaw
are
Sou
th D
ako
taM
on
tan
aN
ort
h D
ako
taD
istr
ict
of
Co
lum
bia
Ver
mo
nt
Ala
ska
Wyo
min
g
Private Non-Profit
Public Two-Year
Other Public Four-Year
Public Research
Source: NCES IPEDS
Annualized Undergraduate FTES, 2006-07 to 2015-16
13Data Source: NCHEMS NCES IPEDS Surveys, 2006-07 thru 2015-16
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Public Research Universities Other Public 4-Year Public 2-Year Private Non-Profit 4-year
Percent Change in Unduplicated Headcount, 2013-14 to 2015-16, Public Four-Year Institutions
14Source: NCES IPEDS
Percent Change in Unduplicated Headcount, 2013-14 to 2015-16, Public Two-Year Institutions
15Source: NCES IPEDS
Change in Enrollments of In-State First-Time Full-Time Students at Missouri’s Public Four-Year Institutions
16
Percent of 18-22 Year Old Missourians Not Enrolled in College by Income Band, 2012-2016
17
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Less than $30,000 $30,000 to $60,000 $60,000 to $90,000 $90,000 to $120,000 $120,000 or More
Note: Data are for individuals with some college but no degree or less.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Percent of 18-22 Year Olds Not Enrolled Among Those With Incomes of Less than $30,000, 2012-2016
18
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Ala
ska
Haw
aii
No
rth
Dak
ota
Wyo
min
gM
on
tan
aU
tah
Idah
oW
ash
ingt
on
Nev
ada
Kan
sas
Okl
aho
ma
Vir
gin
iaC
olo
rad
oSo
uth
Dak
ota
Ore
gon
Min
nes
ota
Mis
sou
riIo
wa
Neb
rask
aA
rkan
sas
Mai
ne
Ken
tuck
yTe
nn
esse
eW
isco
nsi
nA
rizo
na
Texa
sSo
uth
Car
olin
aV
erm
on
tW
est
Vir
gin
iaO
hio
No
rth
Car
olin
aN
ew M
exic
oN
ew H
amp
shir
eLo
uis
ian
aIn
dia
na
Geo
rgia
Nat
ion
(5
0 S
tate
s +
DC
)A
lab
ama
Flo
rid
aM
ich
igan
Illin
ois
Mar
ylan
dC
on
nec
ticu
tM
issi
ssip
pi
Pen
nsy
lvan
iaC
alif
orn
iaD
elaw
are
New
Jer
sey
New
Yo
rkR
ho
de
Isla
nd
Mas
sach
use
tts
Dis
tric
t o
f C
olu
mb
ia
Note: Data are for individuals with some college but no degree or less.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Sources: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2015 Enrollment File; ef2015b Provisional Release Data File; U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample.
Population Age 25-49 Enrolled in College as a Percent of Population Age 25-49 with Less than an Associates (Fall 2015)
18
.61
7.2
10
.7
10
.09
.4
9.3
9.1
8.8
8.5
8.3
8.2
8.0
7.9
7.9
7.6
7.3
7.3
7.2
7.2
7.2
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.7
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.5
5.4
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
New
Ham
psh
ire
Uta
h
Idah
o
Min
nes
ota
Kan
sas
Ari
zon
a
New
Mex
ico
Mar
ylan
d
Vir
gin
ia
Ore
gon
Cal
ifo
rnia
Neb
rask
a
Co
lora
do
Flo
rid
aIll
ino
is
Wis
con
sin
Nat
ion
Wyo
min
g
Ala
ska
Mis
sou
ri
Was
hin
gto
n
No
rth
Dak
ota
Mai
ne
Mas
sach
use
tts
Haw
aii
Sou
th D
ako
ta
Mic
hig
an
Ve
rmo
nt
Ala
bam
a
New
Yo
rk
Mo
nta
na
No
rth
Car
olin
a
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Iow
aIn
dia
na
Oh
io
De
law
are
Rh
od
e Is
lan
d
Ke
ntu
cky
Texa
s
Okl
aho
ma
New
Je
rse
y
Geo
rgia
Pe
nn
sylv
ania
Sou
th C
aro
lina
Ark
ansa
s
Nev
ada
Mis
siss
ipp
i
Ten
nes
see
Lou
isia
na
We
st V
irgi
nia
19
Percent In-State vs. Out-of-State Students by Sector, 2014-15
65.9%
80.4%
98.0%
48.7%
34.1%
19.6%
2.0%
51.3%
Public Research Other Public 4-Year Public 2-Year Private Non-Profit
In State Out-of State
20Source: NCHEMS NCES IPEDS Surveys, 2006-07 thru 2015-16
Import/Export Ratio of First-Time Students, 2014
21
Note: Import/Export ratio is the number of in-migrating students over the number of out-migrating
students. A value of 1 means the in-migrants equals out-migrants; values above 1 show net in-
migration while values between 0 and 1 show net out-migration.
Source: NCES IPEDS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
We
st V
irgi
nia
Dis
tric
t o
f C
olu
mb
iaU
tah
Mis
siss
ipp
iIo
wa
Ala
bam
aN
ort
h D
ako
taSo
uth
Car
olin
aR
ho
de
Isla
nd
Ark
ansa
sO
klah
om
aK
en
tuck
yV
erm
on
tIn
dia
na
Ari
zon
aM
on
tan
aO
rego
nK
ansa
sP
en
nsy
lvan
iaN
ort
h C
aro
lina
De
law
are
Sou
th D
ako
taLo
uis
ian
aW
yom
ing
Oh
ioM
isso
uri
Mas
sach
use
tts
Wis
con
sin
Vir
gin
iaN
ebra
ska
Idah
oTe
nn
esse
eM
ain
eN
ew H
amp
shir
eM
ich
igan
New
Yo
rkN
atio
nFl
ori
da
New
Mex
ico
Co
lora
do
Geo
rgia
Was
hin
gto
nC
on
nec
ticu
tN
evad
aM
inn
eso
taC
alif
orn
iaH
awai
iTe
xas
Mar
ylan
dIll
ino
isA
lask
aN
ew J
ers
ey
Import/Export Ratio of First-Time Students, Public Institutions Only, 2014
22
Note: Import/Export ratio is the number of in-migrating students over the number of out-migrating
students. A value of 1 means the in-migrants equals out-migrants; values above 1 show net in-
migration while values between 0 and 1 show net out-migration.
Source: NCES IPEDS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
We
st V
irgi
nia
Sou
th C
aro
lina
Mis
siss
ipp
iA
lab
ama
Ari
zon
aU
tah
De
law
are
No
rth
Dak
ota
Ke
ntu
cky
Okl
aho
ma
Iow
aA
rkan
sas
Ve
rmo
nt
Mo
nta
na
Ore
gon
Ind
ian
aK
ansa
sW
yom
ing
Sou
th D
ako
taM
ich
igan
Rh
od
e Is
lan
dN
ew H
amp
shir
eM
ain
eLo
uis
ian
aN
ew M
exic
oW
isco
nsi
nN
ort
h C
aro
lina
Oh
ioV
irgi
nia
Co
lora
do
Mis
sou
riP
en
nsy
lvan
iaN
ebra
ska
Nat
ion
Idah
oFl
ori
da
Nev
ada
Was
hin
gto
nG
eorg
iaC
alif
orn
iaTe
nn
esse
eH
awai
iM
aryl
and
Min
nes
ota
Texa
sM
assa
chu
sett
sN
ew Y
ork
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Ala
ska
Illin
ois
New
Je
rse
yD
istr
ict
of
Co
lum
bia
Net Migration of First-Time Students
23
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2004 2014
Change in Net Migration, 2004-2016
Public Institutions Private Institutions
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Total Public Institutions
Net Migration, 2016
Published In-State Tuition & Fees, Public Four-Year Institutions, 2007-2016
24Note: Data are FTE-enrollment weighted averages, adjusted by CPI (2016 dollars).
Source: NCES IPEDS
Missouri
Western States
Northeastern States
Southern States
Midwestern States
Change in Cost of Attendance, Public Four-Year Institutions, 2007-2016
25Note: Data are FTE-enrollment weighted averages, adjusted by CPI (2016 dollars).
Source: NCES IPEDS
Missouri
Western States
Northeastern States
Southern States
Midwestern States
Change in Published In-State Tuition & Fees and Public Two-Year Institutions, 2007-16
Source: NCES IPEDS Institutional Characteristics
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
VT
VA LA IL SD MI
PA HI
GA NJ
TX CO RI
MA
UT
AR
TN AL
NY
CT
WV KS
MO
NC
OR
DE IA NV
WA
OK ID MS
SC NE
WY
MD
WI
FL KY IN AZ
CA
NH
MN
OH
ND
MT
ME
NM
ChgT&F_$ ChgT&F_%
27
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
Non-Tuition Expenses, Public Two-Year Institutions, Not With Family, 2015-16
2015-16 R&B (Off campus not with family) 2015-16 Other Expenses (Off campus not with family)
2015-16 Books & Supplies
Range (Maximum Minus Minimum by Institution) in Non-Tuition Expenses, 2015-16
28
Room & Board
Other Expenses
Books & Supplies
Pu
blic
Fo
ur-
Yea
r (O
n-C
amp
us)
Room & Board (Off Campus Not
With Family)
Other Expenses (Not With Family)
Other Expenses (With Family)
Books & Supplies
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000
Pu
blic
Tw
o-Y
ear
Source: NCES IPEDS
Percent of Pell Recipients Among All Undergraduates, by Sector, 2016-17
29
20.3%
30.5%
32.0%
29.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Public Research Other Public Four-Year Public Two-Year Private Non-Profit
Sources: USED FSA, NCES IPEDS Unduplicated Headcount.
Share of Pell Recipients Among All Undergraduates, Public Research Universities, 2016-17
30Sources: USED FSA, NCES IPEDS Unduplicated Headcount.
Share of Pell Recipients Among All Undergraduates, Public Comprehensive Institutions, 2016-17
31Sources: USED FSA, NCES IPEDS Unduplicated Headcount.
Share of Pell Recipients Among All Undergraduates, Public Two-Year Institutions, 2016-17
32Sources: USED FSA, NCES IPEDS Unduplicated Headcount.
Missouri Graduates in 2015-16 Within 150% of Program Time, Pell vs. Non-Pell Recipients
40.9%
20.4%
62.8%
29.8%
Public Four-Year Public Two-Year
Pell Recipients Non-Pell Recipients
33Source: NCHEMS NCES IPEDS Surveys
Bachelor’s Graduation Rate of Pell Grant Recipients, Public Four-Year Institutions
34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Cal
ifo
rnia
Was
hin
gto
nN
ew H
amp
shir
eIo
wa
New
Je
rse
yV
irgi
nia
Flo
rid
aC
on
nec
ticu
tM
assa
chu
sett
sD
ela
war
eN
ort
h C
aro
lina
Ari
zon
aM
inn
eso
taV
erm
on
tP
en
nsy
lvan
iaSo
uth
Car
olin
aR
ho
de
Isla
nd
Ore
gon
Wis
con
sin
Illin
ois
Haw
aii
Neb
rask
aM
aryl
and
Mic
hig
anN
atio
nN
ew Y
ork
Wyo
min
gN
evad
aIn
dia
na
Co
lora
do
Texa
sN
ort
h D
ako
taM
isso
uri
Kan
sas
Ten
nes
see
Sou
th D
ako
taM
on
tan
aM
issi
ssip
pi
Mai
ne
Lou
isia
na
Uta
hW
est
Vir
gin
iaO
hio
Ke
ntu
cky
Ala
bam
aN
ew M
exic
oG
eorg
iaId
aho
Ark
ansa
sO
klah
om
aA
lask
a
Pell Graduation Rate Difference between Pell & Non-Pell Graduation Rates
Source: NCES IPEDS. Difference is in percentage points.
Graduation Rate of Pell Grant Recipients, Public Two-Year Institutions
35Source: NCES IPEDS. Difference is in percentage points.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Sou
th D
ako
taTe
nn
esse
eN
ort
h D
ako
taFl
ori
da
Kan
sas
Uta
hW
ash
ingt
on
Wyo
min
gW
isco
nsi
nN
ebra
ska
Iow
aO
klah
om
aC
alif
orn
iaM
issi
ssip
pi
Min
nes
ota
Ark
ansa
sK
en
tuck
yM
on
tan
aC
olo
rad
oV
irgi
nia
Nat
ion
New
Yo
rkIll
ino
isW
est
Vir
gin
iaM
isso
uri
Oh
ioM
ain
eLo
uis
ian
aId
aho
Ore
gon
New
Ham
psh
ire
New
Mex
ico
Geo
rgia
Texa
sN
ort
h C
aro
lina
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Ari
zon
aH
awai
iN
ew J
ers
ey
Mas
sach
use
tts
Pe
nn
sylv
ania
Nev
ada
Rh
od
e Is
lan
dIn
dia
na
Mar
ylan
dV
erm
on
tSo
uth
Car
olin
aA
lab
ama
Mic
hig
anD
ela
war
e
Pell Graduation Rate Difference between Pell & Non-Pell Graduation Rates
Change in Net Price at Missouri Public Four-Year Institutions by Income Band
36
Affordability Profiles, Missouri Public Four-Year Institutions, 2015-16
37
$5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000
$1,635
$5,896
$13,950
$27,070
$5,775 $3,798
$4,025 $5,038$6,379
$3,638
$2,717
$6,057 $5,387$3,583
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$30K or Less $30K-$48K $48K-$75K $75K-$110K $110K+
Work EFC Pell Grant State & Inst'l Grants Unmet Need
Affordability for First-Time Full-Time Students With Income of $0-$30,000 at Public Four-Year Institutions, 2015-16
38
Unmet Need
Grants & Scholarships
Estimated EFC
Work Commitment
Notes: Work commitment assumes 15 hours/week for 48 weeks/year at HI minimum wage. EFC is the median within each income band from NPSAS:12; given that income bands are fixed in IPEDS, the
age of this estimate is likely not problematic. Unmet need is calculated as the difference between on-campus cost of attendance and the sum of the work commitment, EFC estimate, and total grants and
scholarships. Unmet need is expressed as a negative number in order to permit sorting in a way that clarifies its relative magnitude by state. Dollars are adjusted for inflation with the CPI.
Sources: IPEDS Student Financial Aid Survey; NPSAS: 12.
Affordability for First-Time Full-Time Students With Income of $30,000-$48,000 at Public Four-Year Institutions, 2015-16
39
Unmet Need
Grants & Scholarships
Estimated EFC
Work Commitment
Notes: Work commitment assumes 15 hours/week for 48 weeks/year at HI minimum wage. EFC is the median within each income band from NPSAS:12; given that income bands are fixed in IPEDS, the
age of this estimate is likely not problematic. Unmet need is calculated as the difference between on-campus cost of attendance and the sum of the work commitment, EFC estimate, and total grants and
scholarships. Unmet need is expressed as a negative number in order to permit sorting in a way that clarifies its relative magnitude by state. Dollars are adjusted for inflation with the CPI.
Sources: IPEDS Student Financial Aid Survey; NPSAS: 12.
Affordability for First-Time Full-Time Students With Income of $48,000-$75,000 at Public Four-Year Institutions, 2015-16
40
Unmet Need
Grants & Scholarships
Estimated EFC
Work Commitment
Notes: Work commitment assumes 15 hours/week for 48 weeks/year at HI minimum wage. EFC is the median within each income band from NPSAS:12; given that income bands are fixed in IPEDS, the
age of this estimate is likely not problematic. Unmet need is calculated as the difference between on-campus cost of attendance and the sum of the work commitment, EFC estimate, and total grants and
scholarships. Unmet need is expressed as a negative number in order to permit sorting in a way that clarifies its relative magnitude by state. Dollars are adjusted for inflation with the CPI.
Sources: IPEDS Student Financial Aid Survey; NPSAS: 12.
Estimated Grants by Source and Income Group, Missouri Comprehensive Public Four-Year Institutions, 2014-15
41
Source: NCES IPEDS Student Financial Aid; NCES NPSAS:12; NASSGAP Annual Survey Data.
Need- and Merit-Based Grant Dollars per FTE, 2015-16 by State
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250SC TN LA N
JW
A KY
NY
CA
WV
VA IN AR
NM PA TX NC
MN AK
DC IL
OK
DE
NV
CO FL VT
WI
ND
MO
MD
OR
ME IA CT
OH
MA
MS
MI
NE
SD RI
KS HI
ID UT
AZ
MT
PR AL
GA
NH
WY
Estimated Need Based UG Grand Dollars/UG FTE Estimated Merit Based UG Grand Dollars/UG FTE
Source: NASSGAP 47th Annual Survey Report on State-Sponsored Student Financial Aid, 2015-16 Academic Year
Summary
• Achieving the state goal depends on ensuring affordability– Growing populations of low-income and under-represented populations and adult
learners– Lagging measures of income
• Holding the line on tuition has helped prop up affordability, but more so in the four-year sector than in the two-year sector
• Non-tuition expenses in Missouri show extreme variation• It is worthwhile to capture a comprehensive, integrated picture of the
resources students rely on to pay college expenses, including– Grants by source (Pell, state, institution)– Family contributions– A reasonable amount of work– Loans
• State aid is supplemented by institutional aid– Increasingly critical to understand– Helped address affordability challenges for low- and middle-income students– The state has little influence over those expenditures– Resources needed to provide them are concentrated in a few institutions and may
be unreliable
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