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Data Assimilation in the NCEO (National Centre for Earth Observation). Peter Jan van Leeuwen Data-Assimilation Research Centre DARC University of Reading. NCEO Structure. Global carbon cycle. Atmospheric composition. Cryosphere and polar oceans. Hazardous weather and water resources. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Data Assimilation in the NCEO(National Centre for Earth Observation)
Peter Jan van LeeuwenData-Assimilation Research Centre DARC
University of Reading
NCEO Structure
EO for climate diagnosisand prediction
(Integrating Theme)
Global carbon cycle
Atmosphericcomposition
Dynamic Earth and geo-hazards
Cryosphere andpolar oceans
Data assimilation and treatment of uncertainty(Cross Cutting Theme)
Training
Capability and knowledge exchange
Wider NERC supported EO programme
Hazardous weather and
water resources
EO informatics(Underpinning Theme)
What is data assimilation?
Solution is pdf!
NO INVERSION !!!
Bayes theorem:
High-resolution weather predictionMet Office system
/ 1.5km
(c) MeteoFrance
The Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System
Assimilation of FAPAR and atm. CO2 flask data to optimise parameter values (and uncertainties) of a
process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (BETHY). (Scholze et al., Bristol)
Posterior uncertainties on parameters
Relative Error Reduction1–opt/prior
Net C fluxes and their uncertainties
Long term mean fluxes to atmosphere (gC/m2/year) and uncertainties
Forests and climate change
Science 320, 1444 (2008); Gordon B. Bonan, et al. Forests and Climate Change
INTRO » CONTEXT » DATA ASSIMILATION » SCALING ISSUES » SOLUTION
Scales of Flux Observations
Global
1000x1000 km
100x100 km
10x10 km
1x1 km
100x100 m
10x10 m
1x1 m
≤10x10 cm
≤Second
Minute
Hour
Day
Month
Year
≥Decade
Photo Christian Morel /www.ourpolarheritiage.comPhoto Christian Morel /www.ourpolarheritiage.com
CO2
CH4
N2O
SF6
COH2
222Rn
Rank histogram truth vs. particles1000 dimensional system