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DAL Investment Company DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

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Page 1: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

DAL Investment DAL Investment CompanyCompany

NoLoad FundXNoLoad FundX

FundX Upgrader FundsFundX Upgrader Funds

Janet BrownJanet Brown

Page 2: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Money Management since 1969 – $2 million minimum$1.3 Billion aggregate assets under management.

NoLoad FundX Newsletter since 1976 – 13,000 subscribers

Manager of FundX Upgrader Funds since 2001 – $850 million

While the funds are no-load, management fees and other expenses still apply. Please refer to the prospectus for further details.

DAL’s proprietary newsletter composed of hypothetical portfolios of

investments chosen using the Upgrading strategy.

DAL Investment Company

Page 3: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Agenda

• 40 Years of Following Market Leadership– What has happened in the market and our firm

• The Upgrading Strategy Applied– How we build portfolios and manage risk– Relative performance and observations

• New Tools and How to Use Them– Why we built them– What we’re working on

• Q&A

Page 4: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

History of Upgrading

Page 5: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Accolades

Page 6: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

What is Upgrading ?

Why Upgrading Works

Current Performance is Key

Many Ways to Upgrade

Common Objections

Page 7: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Upgrading

An effective, disciplined response

to changing market conditions.

Page 8: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

11.8%

4.5%3.0%

As measured by the S&P 500 Index1

UpgradingStocks Average Equity Investor

Inflation

15.2%

Source of chart data: Dalbar, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, July 2008 update. QAIB calculates investor returns as the change in assets, after excluding sales, edemptions and exchanges Upgrading ‘s performance per the Hulbert Financial Digest.

(Average Annual Returns 1987 – July 2008)

20 Year Performance

Page 9: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

How Upgrading Works

Page 10: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Invest in the funds currently leading the market.

Stay with the winners and Upgrade the laggards.

Stay with the Winners

Page 11: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

10 Year Performance

Page 12: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Managers Don’t Change. Markets Do.

Why Upgrading Works

Most managers have a particular investment strategy that performs well in some but not all market environments.

Page 13: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Rotation of Market Leadership

Value and Growth investment styles

Small cap and Large cap

International and Domestic

Page 14: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Upgrading vs Market Indices

Page 15: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

International & Domestic

Page 16: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Upgrading & Market Changes

Page 17: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Upgrading & Market Changes

Page 18: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Upgrading Fundamentals

Don’t Forecast. Accept the market’s trends whether or not we understand the reasons for these trends.

Realize the market will change. Stay alert in order to recognize changes in the market environment.

Move incrementally. Rotation generally occurs in fits and starts, and often fails to endure.

Page 19: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown
Page 20: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown
Page 21: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown
Page 22: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Monthly Upgrader Portfolio

• Core of Class 3 funds

• Limited exposure to more volatile funds

• Holds funds a minimum of 90 days, often longer

• Usually lower turnover

Page 23: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Yearly Performance Record

Page 24: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Upgrading vs Buy and Hold

Cumulative Annualized

Monthly Upgrader Portfolio 40.41% 3.84%

Russell 2000 11.07% 1.17%

DJIA -6.93% -0.71%

EAFE -19.18% -2.34%

S&P 500 -28.27% -3.62%

Nasdaq -61.25% -10.00%

2000 through 2008

Page 25: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Managing Volatility

Page 26: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

?Flexible Income Strategy

Page 27: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown
Page 28: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Setting Expectations

• Upgrading only outperforms 55% of the time• Class 3 funds are typically fully invested• The beta (risk) of Upgraded portfolios changes

over time• Many individual trades do not add value• Upgrading usually lags in transitions• Upgrading has consistently outperformed

through market cycles for long term investors!

Page 29: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Market transitions

Page 30: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

27+ Year Performance

Page 31: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Tax Efficiency of the MUP

Page 32: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

200720051994 20061993 20041987 19921984 19881978 19821970 19791956 19711953 19681948 19651947 19641939 1959

2000 1923 19521990 1916 1949 20031981 1912 1944 19991977 1911 1942 19981966 1906 1938 19961962 1902 1926 19911960 1896 1921 19861957 1895 1919 19831946 1894 1909 19801940 1892 1905 19761934 1889 1900 19721929 1888 1899 1967

2001 1914 1882 1897 19631973 1913 1881 1886 19611969 1910 1875 1878 1951 19971941 1890 1871 1874 1950 19951932 1887 1870 1872 1943 19891920 1883 1869 1864 1925 19851903 1877 1867 1858 1924 19751893 1873 1866 1855 1922 19581884 1861 1865 1850 1918 1955

2002 1876 1860 1859 1849 1901 19451974 1854 1853 1856 1848 1898 1936 19541930 1841 1851 1844 1847 1891 1928 19351917 1837 1845 1842 1838 1885 1927 19081907 1831 1835 1840 1834 1880 1915 1879

2008 1857 1828 1833 1836 1832 1852 1904 1863 19331931 1937 1839 1825 1827 1826 1829 1846 1830 1843 1862

50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50% 60%

2008: Life on the Left Tail

Calendar Year Stock Returns(1825-2008)

Source: Robert Shiller, FMRCo (MARE) as of 12/31/2008.

Page 33: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Recovery Times

Page 34: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Basic Choices

•Assets •Stocks•Commodities•Real Estate

•Debt•Bonds•Preferred Stocks

•Cash

Page 35: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Investing in Cash Not A Compelling Long-Term Strategy

$0

$1

$10

$100

$1,000

$10,000

1925

1929

1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

S&P 500BondsCashU.S. Inflation

Source: Ibbotson, FMRCo (MARE) as of 11/30/2008. Figures assume reinvestment of capital gains and dividends, but does not reflect sales charges or taxes, which would lower these figures. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index. See footnotes for important index definitions. Cash – Ibbotson Associates SBBI 30 Day TBill Total Return Index; Inflation – Ibbotson Associates SBBI U.S. Inflation; Bonds – MARE Custom Bond Index (see footnotes page for details.)

$12.17 3.1%U.S. Inflation

$20.50 3.7%Cash $83.81 5.5%Bonds

$2,023.72

9.6%S&P 500

Ending Value

Average Annual Return

Value of $1 Invested (1925-2008)

2008

Page 36: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

What We Know

• Limited Investment Options

• Current Yields of Bonds and Cash

• Recent Stock Market Returns

• Current Stock Valuations

Page 37: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

2009: S&P500 Index YTD

Page 38: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

What We Don’t Know

• Future Inflation

• When Interest Rates will Go Up

• Will the Stock Market Bottom?

- When and at What Level

Page 39: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

3 Year Investment (1925-2008)

Page 40: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

10 Year Investment (1925-2008)

Page 41: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

20 Year Investment (1925-2008)

Page 42: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown
Page 43: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Allocation Changes Over Time

Cash Bonds Stocks

Year 1 Year 25

Years1-2

Years3-7

Years8-12

Years13-17

Years18-25

Page 44: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Allocation Changes Over Time

Cash Bonds Stocks

20342009 20342014 20342024 203420302032-2034

8% 24% 68% 10% 30% 60% 20% 42% 38% 50% 30% 20% 100% 0% 0%

Page 45: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Risk Classification and Portfolio Construction /Management

Current High Ranking FundsClass Type Ticker

1 China MCHFX /FXI

1 Gold GLD

2 Em Mkts EEM

2 Mid Cap BUFMX/DVLIX

2 TCW select TGCNX

3 Hussman HSGFX

3 Oakmk Intl OAKIX

3 SP500 Eq RSP

Portfolio Weight

MUP FUNDX HOTFX

1.4% 1.1% 2.9%

2% 2.5% 5.3%

3% 3.3% 7.5%

2.6% 1.7% 3.6%

2.6% 0.7% 4.4%

9.7% 6.3% 4.9%

4.7% 5.1% 4.9%

6.8% 6.9% 5.5%

Page 46: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Risk

Expected Return

Money Market

Risk Spectrum (Mutual Funds)

Growth Funds

Balanced Funds

Fixed Income

Concentrated and Leveraged Funds

Aggressive Growth Funds

Page 47: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Risk

Expected Return

Money Market

Risk Spectrum (NoLoad Fund*X)

MUP

Class 3

Class 4

Class 1

Class 2

MFIP

Class 5

Page 48: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Risk

Expected Return

HOTFX/UNBOX

FUNDX/REMIX

RELAX

INCMX

Risk Spectrum (Upgrader Funds)

TACTX

STOCX

Page 49: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Upgrading Applied to ETFs

Page 50: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Decisions

Manage

Avoid

Accept

Time

Risk (Volatility)

Often leads to disappointment… many “timers” are really “avoiders”

Tempting, but most investors lack the tools, discipline and knowledge

Page 51: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

What do we mean by “Tactical”

Fully Invested Fully “Hedged”

Page 52: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Popular Timing Models

• Moving Averages• Stop Losses• Valuations• Rebalancing• Don’t Fight the Fed• Gut Feelings

Page 53: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

A Weight of the Evidence Approach

Quantifiable Measures of Market Environment

Sentiment

Valuation

Participation

Environment

Divergences

Page 54: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Examples of Key Factors

• Expanding or Contracting Money Supply• Valuations (Relative to Normal Earnings)• Number of New Highs Vs. New Lows • Volume in Advances Vs. Declines• Bond Yields Vs. Earnings Yield or Dividends• Percentage of Industries in Uptrend• Sentiment

Page 55: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Composite Model

• 10 models, equally weighted• +1 = buy, 0 = neutral, -1=sell• If net score -1 or lower, hedge• If net score >+2, fully invested

Page 56: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Pros and Cons of Timing

Pros• Allows opportunity to

participate in market gains with a trigger to help avoid some declines.

• May improve long-term performance and reduce volatility.

Cons• May be out of synch with a

significant advance.• Requires more frequent

trading and therefore may incur greater tax liability.

• May sell after a decline and miss an advance before getting back in.

Page 57: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Putting The Pieces Together

• Step 1: Determine a Realistic Asset Allocation to Fund Your Goals and Objectives.

• Step 2: Decide What Strategy to Use and If You Want to Include a Timing or Tactical Model, or Simply Stick to a Static Allocation.

• Step 3: Stick to Your Discipline

Page 58: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Investor Questionnaire

Step 1:

Answer five simple questions to determine your risk tolerance

Page 59: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Investor Questionnaire

Step 2:

Determine the time horizon for your accounts

Saving for a House

Child’s College Fund

Retirement

Page 60: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Insights

• Ultimately, you need a long-term strategy you believe in, that has the potential to fund your long-term goals.

• You also need to be realistic and recognize that unexpected events will happen.

• Actions should be based on what works most of the time, but you should also have a plan for how to handle “unacceptable” loss.

Page 61: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

Tactical Total Return

Most Conservative

Posture

Most Aggressive

Posture

Page 62: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

On the WebOn the Web NoLoad Fund*X NoLoad Fund*X Newsletter:Newsletter: www.fundx.com

DAL Investment DAL Investment Company:Company: www.dal-investment.com

FundX Upgrader Funds:FundX Upgrader Funds: www.fundxfund.com

Page 63: DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown

NoLoad FundX

Article Topic IssueCash Isn’t Compelling Long Term January 2009Select the Right Mix for Recovery December 2008Is Rebalancing Necessary? December 2008How Long To Recover? November 2008Focus Forward: Lessons from the last 39 Years of Upgrading

November 2008

Recovery & Repair October 2008Managing Market Volatility August 2008Staying Disciplined in Challenging Markets July 2008