DailyTech Report 23.07.12

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Daily Technical Report

July 23, 2012

Sensex (17158) / NIFTY (5205)

O n Friday, once aga in our benchmark indices

opened on a flat note and traded with negative bias

throughout the day to close marginally above 5200

m ark. O n the sectoral front, Banking , Consumer

Goods and Realty counters were among the major

losers; whereas Auto and Consumer Durables ended

with ma rginal g ains. The advance to decline ratio wa s

in favor of decl in ing counters (A= 1165 D= 1659 )

(Source www.bseindia.com).

Formation

The weekly 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of thefa l l f rom 18524 /5630 (February 22, 2012)

157 49 / 477 0 (June 4, 2012) is seen at 17464 /

5302 .

O n the weekly chart, we are witnessing aDownward Sloping Trend Line resistance near

17687 / 5386 formed by jo in ing the h ighs of

21109 / 6339 (November 5, 2010) 18524 /

56 30 (February 24 , 201 2).

A horizontal consolidation band is observed inthe range o f 17034 / 5159 and 17635 / 5350.

The 20-day EMA and 20-week EMA arep laced a t 17200 / 5218 and 17000 / 5155

level, respectively.

Trading strategy:

After a flat opening on Monday, indices moved

marginally below the '20-day EMA' to test gap area

(17135 - 17034 / 5189 5159 levels) formed on

29thJune 2012. This level also coincides with the

weekly 20 EMA. Hence, the significance of this

support zone cannot be ignored. We had mentioned

a t rad ing range o f 17034 / 5159 and 17 635 / 5350

in our last report, which is still intact. Also, there is no

significant change in the price pattern on the weekly

chart. Hence, we continue to mention the same

trading range for coming week. Looking at daily price

action, it can be seen that the market awaits reforms

and policy action post the results of the presidential

election. It would be important to note that marketparticipants are hopeful considering that the Prime

Minister has himself mentioned reviving animal spirits

of the econom y.

Exhibit 1: N ifty Daily Chart

Source: Falco n

Actionable poin ts:

View N eutral

Resistance 5258

Support Levels 518 9 - 515 9

Policy action is expected on the pricing of diesel and

other petroleum products as an immediate measure

to contain fiscal deficit and sooth the nerves of the

investor fraternity. Lack of policy action or deferring

of important decisions would clearly furtherdeteriorate sentiment and thus the Index may drift

lower to 168 08 166 36 / 5 098 50 41 levels i f the

17034 / 5159 mark is breached on the downside on

a closing ba sis. O n the upside the imm ediate

resistance is seen at 173 19 / 52 58 level. A breakout

above this may push indices higher to test 17635 /

5350 level. . As mentioned in our previous reports,

we advise Positional traders to book partial profits on

a rise towards 5350 and hold balance positions in

Nifty by keeping a trailing stop loss at 5090 (Nifty

spot).


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July 23, 2012


Bank N ifty Outlook - (10482)

O n Friday, Bank N ifty opened on a p essimistic note

and selling pressure throughout the day lead the

index to close near days low. As expected wewitnessed high volatility during Fridays session. The

Bearish Harami candlestick pattern on the weekly

chart mentioned in our report on July 16, 2012 has

been confirmed as the index has managed to close

below the 10524 mark. At this juncture the index has

taken suppo rt near the 20 Day EMA . However,

the momentum oscillators on the daily and weekly

chart suggest further downside in likely in coming

week. Thus a sustainable move below Fridays low of

10 46 3 would further intensify selling pressure and the

index is likely to drift towards 10350 10250 levels.

O n the upside 10 54 3 10 56 2 levels are likely to act

as resistance in coming trading session.

Actionable points:

View Bearish Below 10 46 3

Resistance Levels 10 35 0 - 10 25 0

Support Level 105 43 - 105 62

Exhibit 2 : Bank N ifty Weekly Chart

Source: Falcon


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July 23, 2012

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS S2 S1 PIVO T R1 R2

SENSEX 17,042 17,100 17,188 17,246 17,333

NIFTY 5,173 5,189 5,214 5,230 5,255

BANKNIFTY 10,363 10,422 10,523 10,582 10,682

ACC 1,245 1,252 1,260 1,268 1,276

AM BUJACEM 167 168 169 170 171

ASIANPAINT 3,511 3,614 3,724 3,827 3,938

AXISBANK 1,025 1,033 1,046 1,054 1,067

BAJAJ-AUTO 1,497 1,545 1,570 1,618 1,643

BANKBARODA 683 690 696 702 708

BHARTIARTL 310 312 316 318 322

BHEL 219 224 232 236 244

BPCL 377 380 384 387 391

CAIRN 318 322 326 330 334

CIPLA 320 323 328 331 336

COALINDIA 357 359 361 363 365

DLF 201 203 205 207 209DRREDDY 1,574 1,593 1,616 1,635 1,659

GAIL 349 352 355 357 360

GRASIM 2,593 2,614 2,641 2,662 2,689

HCLTECH 467 473 479 485 490

HDFC 674 680 688 693 702

HDFCBANK 576 579 584 587 592

HEROM OTOCO 2,018 2,050 2,074 2,106 2,130

HINDALCO 119 121 122 124 126

HINDUN ILVR 443 444 447 449 451

ICICIBANK 917 926 941 951 966

IDFC 135 136 138 139 142

INFY 2,183 2,201 2,223 2,241 2,263

ITC 251 252 253 254 256

JINDALSTEL 418 422 427 432 437

JPASSOCIAT 75 77 77 79 79

KOTAKBANK 548 555 566 573 584

LT 1,363 1,377 1,398 1,412 1,433

M &M 6 9 3 6 9 8 7 0 5 7 1 0 7 1 7

M ARUTI 1,074 1,111 1,131 1,168 1,188

NTPC 154 155 156 157 158

ONGC 277 279 282 285 288

PNB 806 813 821 827 835

POWERGRID 110 111 112 112 113RANBAXY 473 478 486 490 498

RELIANCE 711 717 723 729 735

RELINFRA 513 519 527 534 541

SAIL 92 93 94 95 96

SBIN 2,098 2,115 2,144 2,161 2,191

SESAGOA 187 190 192 195 198

SIEM ENS 675 680 690 696 706

STER 102 104 105 106 108

SUNPHARM A 619 622 625 628 631

TATAMOTORS 220 222 224 225 227

TATAPOW ER 98 99 100 100 101

TATASTEEL 409 412 415 419 422

TCS 1,189 1,206 1,217 1,234 1,245

W IPRO 356 360 366 369 376


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July 23, 2012

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Research Team

Shard ul Kulkarni - Head TechnicalsSam eet Ch avan - Technica l Ana lyst

Sacchitana nd Uttekar - Technica l Ana lyst

M ehul Kothari - Technica l Ana lyst

Anku r Lakhotia - Technica l Ana lyst

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DailyTech Report 23.07.12