DAILY REPORT - Banca Intesa Beograd...DAILY REPORT Flash Dinar slightly changed against euro (118,0575). National Bank of Serbia bought €15mn at the forex interbank market. Bank

Source: Daily FX

Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD

118.0575 118.0599 0.00% -0.35% 1.1638 1.1661 -0.20% -3.06%

101.3543 101.3825 -0.03% 2.26% 1.1628 1.1663 -0.30% -0.62%

101.3891 101.2173 0.17% 0.10% 0.8906 0.8891 0.17% -3.34%

132.5000 132.8606 -0.27% -0.70% 1.3070 1.3115 -0.34% 0.14%Source: NBS 112.8500 112.8800 -0.03% 0.32%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Value Next decision Value

3.00% 9.8.2018 0.00%

Deposit facility 1.75% 2.00%

Lending facility 4.25% 0.50%

Repo operations (one week) 2.38% -0.75%

Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg

18.7.2018 17.7.2018 Change (bps) 18.7.2018 17.7.2018 Change(bps)

2.25% 2.12% 0.13 -0.366% -0.365% -0.001

2.61% 2.60% 0.01 -0.369% -0.369% 0.000

2.88% 2.89% -0.01 -0.321% -0.321% 0.000

3.07% 3.05% 0.02 -0.269% -0.269% 0.000

Source: Reuters Source: Bloomberg, EBF

Note: Values are with 1 day delay Note: Values are with 1 day delay

Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)

2.086% 2.082% 0.005 -0.025% -0.025% 0.000

2.348% 2.342% 0.006 0.267% 0.273% -0.006

2.527% 2.523% 0.003 0.869% 0.877% -0.008

-0.776% -0.776% 0.000 2.885% 2.885% 0.000

-0.727% -0.723% -0.004 2.899% 2.905% -0.006

-0.646% -0.646% 0.000 2.926% 2.937% -0.011

Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD616,38mn (€5,22mn). Bonds trading RSD604,26mn (€5,12mn).

Euro slides against dollar. Trading at $1.163.

European stocks up at the closing. Stoxx 600 up 0.5%, DAX up 0.8%, FTSE 100 up 0.7%.

U.S. equties up. Dow Jones up 0.3%, S&P500 up 0.2%.

Oil declines (WTI $68.71, Brent $72.72).

Gold declines ($1.223,59).

Financial Market Analysis

Treausury and ALM department

DAILY REPORT

Flash

Dinar slightly changed against euro (118,0575). National Bank of Serbia bought €15mn at the forex interbank market.

Bank of the Group

July 19, 2018

Key events

TimeCountry/

RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast

FX rates and money market

FX rates on domestic market International markets

Currency Currency

GBP/RSD GBP/USD

USD/JPY

National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates

EUR/RSD EUR/USD

USD/RSD EUR/CHF

CHF/RSD EUR/GBP

United Kingdom (BOE) 2.8.2018

Switzerland (SNB) 20.9.2018

Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe

Next decision

Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 26.7.2018

US (FED) 1.8.2018

BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR6M

Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap

Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING

BEONIA EONIA

BELIBOR1M EURIBOR1M

BELIBOR3M EURIBOR3M

Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING





1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

EUR/USD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

117

118

119

120

121

122EUR mio EUR/RSD

Turnover on FX market (right axis)

http://www.bancaintesa.rs/code/navigate.aspx?Id=1

Date Currency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Moody's S&P Fitch

Ba3 BB BB

Outlook Stable Stable Stable

Date 17.3.2017 15.12.2017 15.12.2017 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

Source: Bloomberg

Date Value Previous Date Value Previous

04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%

02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 13.06.2018 0.65% 0.96%

07.02.2017 3.48% 3.49% 20.04.2018 1.20% 1.24%

24.10.2017 4.05% 4.65% 16.04.2018 1.78% 1.88%

28.02.2018 3.80% 3.88% 11.06.2018 2.50%

17.07.2018 3.80% 3.95% 26.03.2018 3.50% 4.00%

23.10.2017 5.00% 5.60% 06.09.2017 4.20% 4.20%

10.07.2018 4.85% 4.90% Source: Public Debt Management Agency

23.06.2016NBS key rate +

0.25%

NBS key rate +

0.25%

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency

Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

Vrednost Prethodna UST spred

Serbia 5y 2018 2.933% 3.091% 0.842%

Serbia 7y 2020 3.573% 3.570% 0.987%

Serbia 10y 2021 4.003% 4.015% 4.003%Source: Bloomberg

Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Fixed income

Scheduled auctions

RSD Government securities EUR Government securities

Instrument Value

No scheduled auctions for today

Serbia Credit rating

2 years 5 years

3 years 7 years

5 years 10 years

Maturity

3 months 53 weeks

6 months 2 years

53 weeks 3 years

Maturity

7 years

10 years

24 month amortizing

Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)

15 years

80

130

180

230

280

330

bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

105

107

109

111

113

115

117

119

Serbian 10y Eurobond 2021

Price Yield (right axis)

1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

10.511.512.513.514.5

Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions

3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions

53w 2y 3y 5y Column1 10y 15y

2

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Sourc: Bloomberg

NIIS 699 8,936,016 1.60% 1.90% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

AERO 1,749 1,668,546 3.19% 2.94% 2.40 17.55 14.52

ALFA 33,688 437,944 0.00% -0.33% 0.81 6.96 12.25

MTLC 2,019 222,090 0.95% 5.10% 1.37 17.09 7.98

AKDM 300 216,300 7.14% 7.14%#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable

THHM 235 146,640 0.00% 0.00% 0.16 #N/A N/A -8.32

IRTL 533 31,447 0.00% -0.37% 0.32 5.87 5.42

SLNP 145 24,650 0.00% 0.00% 0.35 3.41 9.97

FITO 2,810 14,050 0.00% 0.00% 1.61 9.77 17.60

ENHL 710 3,550 0.85% -1.39% 0.92 187.11 0.53

FITO 2,810 14,050 0.00% 0.00% 1.61 9.77 17.60

CNPR 1,400 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.33 348.16 0.10

Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg

0.22%

0.34%

0.64%

-0.19%

0.60%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20


sofix bet-c

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg


dj balkan

Source: Bloomberg

Belgrade Stock Exchange

Value Previous value Change YTD

Belex 15 742.52 734.84 1.05% -3.29%

Belex line 1,545.19 1,536.18 0.59% -7.60%

Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,74 6,60

Turnover 616,378,306 RSD 184,254,199 RSD 234.53%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

5,220,895 € 1,560,771 € 234.51%

The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day

Company Ticker Price RSDTurnovor

RSD

Daily

change

Weekly

change

NIS AD NOVI SAD 113,979,219,600 Din.

AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 61,006,475,475 Din.

ALFA PLAM AD VRANJE 5,889,066,656 Din.

P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization

IRITEL AD BEOGRAD 154,625,432 Din.

SLOGA AD NOVI PAZAR 80,395,250 Din.

GALENIKA FITOFARMACIJA AD 7,418,400,000 Din.

METALAC AD GORNJI MILANOVAC 4,118,760,000 Din.

AUTO KUCA 21 MAJ AD BEOGRAD 106,740,900 Din.

TEHNOHEMIJA AD BEOGRAD 240,767,840 Din.

Regional stock exchanges

Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous

dayChange YTD

ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO 7,761,217,320 Din.

GALENIKA FITOFARMACIJA AD 7,418,400,000 Din.

CENTROPROM AD 123,596,200 Din.

Crobex Hrvatska 1,795.49 1,791.63 -2.57%

SBITOP Slovenija 882.67 879.72 9.44%

SOFIX Bugarska 628.47 624.47 -7.23%

BET Rumunija 7,990.15 8,005.25 3.05%

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 433.99 431.39 -7.83%

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

CROBEX

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

SOFIX

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

BET

300

400

500

600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

500

550

600

650

700

750

800 Belex 15

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

0.85% 0.95%

1.60%

3.19%

KMBN TGAS FITO JESV ALFA ENHL MTLC NIIS AERO

Daily change of Belex 15 members

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800Belex line

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

SBITOP

3

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p



nasdaq dax



nikkei dj stoxx





Source: Bloomberg

Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin [email protected] Biljana Radosavljević 201-3610

[email protected]

Darko Karanović 201-3624

Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626

[email protected]

Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD

World stock exchanges

S&P 500 US 2,815.62 2,809.55 0.22% 5.31%

Dow Jones Industrial US 25,199.29 25,119.89 0.32% 1.94%

DAX Germany 12,765.94 12,661.54 0.82% -1.17%

NASDAQ US 7,854.44 7,855.12 -0.01% 13.78%

Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 387.06 384.98 0.54% -0.54%

FTSE UK 7,676.28 7,626.33 0.65% -0.15%

ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)

Dealing

Disclaimer

This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.

Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in

Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be

reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.

Nikkei 225 Japan 22,794.19 22,697.36 0.43% 0.13%

14,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,000

Dow Jones Industrial

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

S&P 500

4,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,0005,2005,4005,6005,8006,0006,2006,4006,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,6007,8008,0008,200

NASDAQ Composite

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420DJ Stoxx 600

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

Nikkei 225

\

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000DAX

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85Oil Brent (USD/bbl)

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400Gold

\

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 Vix Index

4

http://www.bancaintesa.rs/

Documents

DAILY REPORT - Banca Intesa Beograd...DAILY REPORT Flash Dinar slightly changed against euro (118,0575). National Bank of Serbia bought €15mn at the forex interbank market. Bank