DAILY REPORT...DAILY REPORT Flash Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5923). Bank of the Group August 27, 2020 Key events United States FX rates and money market FX rates on

Source:Bloomberg

Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD

117.5923 117.5914 0.00% -0.51% 1.1832 1.1812 0.17% 3.32%

99.3850 99.5609 -0.18% -3.87% 1.0739 1.0740 -0.01% -4.59%

109.4595 109.4688 -0.01% 4.27% 0.8955 0.9001 -0.52% 3.67%

131.2707 130.7297 0.41% 0.07% 1.3214 1.3123 0.69% -3.33%Source: NBS 106.0100 106.4400 -0.40% -0.33%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Value Next decision Value

1.25% 10.9.2020 0.00%

Deposit facility 0.25% 0.25%

Lending facility 2.25% 0.10%

Repo operations (one week) 0.23% -0.75%

Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg

26.8.2020 25.8.2020 Change (bps) 26.8.2020 25.8.2020 Change(bps)

0.25% 0.25% 0.00 -0.469% -0.468% -0.001

0.71% 0.71% 0.00 -0.554% -0.553% -0.001

1.02% 1.02% 0.00 -0.515% -0.515% 0.000

1.22% 1.23% -0.01 -0.476% -0.481% 0.005

Source: Reuters -0.443% -0.443% 0.000

Note: Values are with 1 day delay Source: Bloomberg, EBF

Note: Values are with 1 day delay

Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)

0.156% 0.170% -0.014 -0.438% -0.430% -0.008

0.256% 0.251% 0.005 -0.398% -0.380% -0.018

0.307% 0.308% -0.001 -0.213% -0.187% -0.026

-0.782% -0.782% 0.000 1.079% 1.297% -0.218

-0.720% -0.720% 0.000 1.093% 1.284% -0.191

-0.667% -0.668% 0.002 1.220% 1.379% -0.159

Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD 177.44 mln (EUR 1.51 mln). There was no bond trading.

Euro streghtned against the dollar ($1.1832).

U.S. equities extended a streak of record gains amid rising expectations for loose monetary policy while the economy shows signs of recovering from the

coronavirus pandemic. S&P 500 rose by 1.0%, Dow Jones up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 1.7%.

European equities hit their highest closing level in two weeks as Germany extended a jobs support program allocating around 10 billion euros more to keep

peopole employed. Euro Stoxx 50 rose by 0.8%, FTSE 100 rose by 0.1%, DAX rose by 1.0%, CAC 40 rose by 0.8%.

Oil lower (WTI $43.39 i Brent $45.64).

Gold higher ($1943.5).

TimeCountry/

RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast

10:00 Eurozone

Financial Market Analysis

Treausury and ALM department

DAILY REPORT

Flash

Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5923).

Bank of the Group

August 27, 2020

Key events

United States

FX rates and money market

FX rates on domestic market International markets

Currency Currency

ECB M3 Annual Growth Rate

SAJUL 9.2 9.2

14:30GDP Chained 2012 Dollars

QoQ2Q S -32.9 -32.5

14:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims SA AUG 22 1106 1000

GBP/RSD GBP/USD

USD/JPY

National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates

EUR/RSD EUR/USD

USD/RSD EUR/CHF

CHF/RSD EUR/GBP

United Kingdom (BOE) 17.9.2020

Switzerland (SNB) 24.9.2020

Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe

Next decision

Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 10.9.2020

US (FED) 16.9.2020

BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR3M

Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap

Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING

BEONIA EONIA

BELIBOR1M

EURIBOR1MBELIBOR3M

EURIBOR6M

€STR

Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING





1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2EUR/USD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

117

118

119

120

121

122EUR mio EUR/RSD

Turnover on FX market (right axis)

http://www.bancaintesa.rs/code/navigate.aspx?Id=1

Date Currency

25.8.2020 RSD

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Moody's S&P Fitch

Ba3 BB+ BB+

Outlook Positive Positive Stable

Date 6.9.2019 13.12.2019 27.3.2020 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

Source: Bloomberg

Date Value Previous Date Value Previous

04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%

02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 28.04.2020 0.50% 0.49%

29.04.2020 1.79% 1.80% 23.10.2019 0.60% 1.15%

04.08.2020 1.95% 2.00% 18.03.2020 1.10% 1.48%

02.06.2020 2.15% 2.15% 11.06.2018 2.50%

25.08.2020 2.60% 2.60% 09.10.2019 1.89% 3.25%

05.11.2019 2.69% 3.40% 25.03.2020 1.89% 1.89%

07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% 06.02.2019 3.60% 4.20%

18.08.2020 3.85% 3.85% 29.01.2020 3.00%

23.06.2016NBS key rate +

0.25%NBS key rate + 0.25%



Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency

Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

Rate Previous UST spread Rate Previous

Serbia 10y 2021 sep 1.258% 1.275% 1.118% US 10y 2021 avg 0.140% 0.146%


Rate Previous Bund spread Rate Previous

Serbia 7y 2027 may 1.963% 1.963% 2.575% Germany 7y 2027 feb -0.612% -0.628%

Serbia 10y 2029 jun 1.899% 1.894% 2.416% Germany 10y 2029 feb -0.517% -0.533%Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Fixed income

Scheduled auctions

RSD Government securities EUR Government securities

Instrument Value

Serbia Credit rating

5y government bond 5,000,000,000

2 years 5 years

3 years 7 years

5 years 10 years

Maturity

3 months 53 weeks

6 months 2 years

53 weeks 3 years

Maturity

7 years

10 years

24 month amortizing

Serbia Eurobonds (USD)

15 years

20 years12 years

12 years

US Treasury Bonds

Serbia Eurobonds (EUR) German Bunds

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija

1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

10.511.512.513.514.5

Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions

3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y 12y

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions

2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 12y 15y 20y

2

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Sourc: Bloomberg

MTLC 1,900 146,224,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.70 9.33 7.86

NIIS 585 22,522,500 0.69% 1.04% 0.40 30.57 1.30

KMBN 2,646 8,520,120 -0.08% 8.00% 0.56 5.30 11.13

AERO 925 70,300 0.00% 0.98% 1.09 -0.82

ENHL 390 3,900 0.00% 0.00% 0.22 7.45 2.99

Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg

-0.17%

0.33%

0.90%

0.58%

0.69%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20


sofix bet-c

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg


dj balkan

Source: Bloomberg

Belgrade Stock Exchange

Value Previous value Change YTD

Belex 15 691.97 691.16 0.12% -9.26%

Belex line 1,493.74 1,492.82 0.06% -6.07%

Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,62 8,36

Turnover 177,441,855 RSD 83,184,613 RSD 113.31%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

1,508,970 € 707,441 € 113.30%

P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization

The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day

Company Ticker Price RSD Turnover RSDDaily

change

Weekly

change

Regional stock exchanges

Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous

dayChange YTD

METALAC AD GORNJI MILANOVAC 3,876,000,000 Din.

NIS AD NOVI SAD 95,390,334,000 Din.

KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA 44,500,311,576 Din.

AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 32,399,169,325 Din.

ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO 4,263,203,880 Din.

Crobex Hrvatska 1,614.17 1,616.99 -19.99%

SBITOP Slovenija 854.48 851.71 -7.73%

SOFIX Bugarska 437.61 433.71 -22.97%

BET Rumunija 8,835.85 8,785.18 -11.44%

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 379.18 376.58 -24.84%

1,350

1,450

1,550

1,650

1,750

1,850

1,950

2,050

2,150

CROBEX

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

SOFIX

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

BET

300

400

500

600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850 Belex 15

-0.08%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

0.69%

KMBN AERO ENHL TGAS MTLC FITO JESV ALFA NIIS

Daily change of Belex 15 members

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800Belex line

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

SBITOP

3

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p



nasdaq dax



nikkei dj stoxx





Source: Bloomberg

Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin 201-3622Nikolina Guteša 201-1401 Biljana Radosavljević 201-3610Djordje Brkuljan 201-1263 [email protected]

[email protected]

Darko Karanović 201-3624

Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626

[email protected]

Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD

World stock exchanges

S&P 500 US 3,478.73 3,443.62 1.02% 7.99%

Dow Jones Industrial US 28,331.92 28,248.44 0.30% -0.46%

DAX Germany 13,190.15 13,061.62 0.98% -0.44%

NASDAQ US 11,665.06 11,466.47 1.73% 30.39%

Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 373.12 369.75 0.91% -10.34%

FTSE UK 6,045.60 6,037.01 0.14% -20.32%

ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)

Dealing

Disclaimer

This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data. Information,

opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in Banca Intesa ad

Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be reproduced in whole or in part

together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.

Nikkei 225 Japan 23,290.86 23,296.77 -0.03% -1.55%

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000Dow Jones Industrial

2,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,8002,9003,0003,1003,2003,3003,4003,5003,600

S&P 500

5,800

6,800

7,800

8,800

9,800

10,800

11,800

12,800NASDAQ Composite

250

270

290

310

330

350

370

390

410

430

450DJ Stoxx 600

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

Nikkei 225

\

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000DAX

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Oil Brent (USD/bbl)

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300Gold

\

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 Vix Index

4

http://www.bancaintesa.rs/

Documents

DAILY REPORT...DAILY REPORT Flash Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5923). Bank of the Group August 27, 2020 Key events United States FX rates and money market FX rates on