Daily Metals and Energy Report, July 30 2013

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International Commodities

Content Overview

Precious Metals

Energy

Base Metals

Important Events for today

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Research Team

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Chief Manager

Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities

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Research Analyst

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mbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

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Overview

• US Pending Home Sales declined by 0.4 percent i

• UK’s CBI Realized Sales was at 17-mark in the curr

• Japan’s Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9 perc

Asian markets are trading higher today on the bac

unemployment rate which showed signs of eco

country.

US Pending Home Sales declined by 0.4 percent in

of 5.8 percent a month ago.

The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note a

around 0.01 percent in the yesterday’s trade on t

aversion in the global market sentiments which led

he currency. Further, unfavorable pending home supported an upside in the currency.

However, sharp upside in the currency was capped

concerns that Fed will not pullback its stimulus me

DX touched an intra-day high of 81.94 and closed at

The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.9 percent

ession. The currency depreciated on the back

domestic markets. Further, expectations of econo

arget of 6 percent exerted downside pressure on t

However, sharp downside in currency was cush

weakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra

closed at same levels on Monday.

For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled

$1017.77 million) as on 29th

July 2013. Year to d

nflows stood at Rs.66074.20 crores ($12,483.10

2013.

UK’s Net Lending to Individuals was at 1.5 billio

against a rise of 1.2 billion Pounds a month ago. Condustry (CBI) Realized Sales was at 17-mark in July

une. Mortgage Approvals remained unchanged at

of June.

apan’s Household Spending declined by 0.4 perce

previous fall of 1.6 percent in May. Unemploymen

percent in June from rise of 4.1 percent a month

Production declined by 3.3 percent in last month

1.9 percent in earlier month.


w

the last month.

ent month.

nt in month of June.

of decline in Japan’s

omic growth in the

June as against a rise

nd gained marginally

e back of rise in risk

to rise in demand for

ales data from the US

on account of ease in

asures very soon. The

81.76 on Monday.

in yesterday’s trading

of weak global and

ic growth below the

e currency.

ioned on account of

-day low of 59.54 and

at Rs.6104.20 crores

ate basis, net capital

million) till 29th

July

n Pounds in June as

nfederation of Britishfrom earlier 1-level in

58,000 in the month

t in June as against a

Rate dropped to 3.9

ago. Prelim Industrial

ith respect to rise of

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev da

INR/$

(Spot)

47.64 -0.1

$/Euro

(Spot)

1.3745 0.4

Dollar

Index

76.875 -0.1

NIFTY 5012.55 1.4

SENSEX 16709.6 1.4

DJIA 11246.73 1.2

S&P 1188.68 1.3

The Euro depreciated around

trading session on the back

weak global market sentiment

the currency.

The Euro touched an intra-da

1.326 against the dollar on Mo

.

Report ly 30, 2013


as on 29 July, 2013

y w-o-w m-o-m

1 -3.21 -4.92

8 -2.50 -4.70

6 1.73 4.23

5 -2.19 -0.87

7 -2.08 -0.78

7 -1.47 -1.43

5 -0.83 -0.44

Source:

0.1 percent in the yesterd

f strength in the DX. Furt

s exerted downside pressur

y low of 1.3238 and close

day.




ullion

old

ot gold prices decreased around 0.5 percent i

ading session on the back of strength in the DX. Fu

arket sentiments acted as a negative factor for pric

dditionally, declining trend in SPDR gold holdings

7.35 tonnes lowest level since February 2009

essure on prices. The yellow metal touched an

324.69/oz and closed at $1327/oz in the yesterday

the Indian markets, prices gained by more th

count of depreciation in the Rupee and closed at

ter touching a high of Rs.27,833/10 gms on Monda

lverking cues from fall in gold prices along with downs

oup, Spot silver prices declined around 0.7 p

rther, strength in the DX exerted downside press

hite metal touched an intra-day low of $19.71/

9.75 in yesterday’s trade.

n the domestic front, prices rose around 0.9 perc

preciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.41,146/k

gh of Rs.40,895/kg on Monday.

utlook

ecious metal prices are expected to trade on a high

ade, taking cues from weakness in the DX coupled

arkets. However, sharp upside in prices will be cap

clining trend in SPDR gold holdings. In the Indian

ade on a higher note on the back of rise in prices

ppreciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in pric

chnical Outlook valid for J

Unit Support

pot Gold $/oz 1319/1312

MCX Gold Aug’13 Rs/10 gms 28100/27950

pot Silver $/oz 19.70/19.40

MCX Silver Sept’13 Rs/kg 40800/40400


w

Market Highlights - Gold (% chang

Gold Unit Last

Gold (Spot) $/oz 1327.0

Gold (Spot -

Mumbai)

Rs/10

gms

27420.0

Gold

(LBMA-PM

Fix) $/oz 1329.8

Comex Gold

(August’13)

$/oz 1328.4

MCX Gold

(August’13)

Rs /10

gms

28277.0

Market Highlights - Silver (% chang

Silver Unit Last

Silver

(Spot)

$/oz 19.8

Silver

(Spot -

Mumbai) Rs/1 kg 42040.0

Silver

(LBMA) $/oz 2010.0

ComexSilver

(Sept’13)

$/ oz 19.9

MCX Silver

(Sept’13) Rs / kg 41146.0

Technical Chart – Spot Gold

the yesterday’s

ther, weak global

s.

which stands at

xerted downside

intraday low of

’s trading session.

an 3 percent on

Rs.28,277/10 gms

.

ide in base metals

rcent yesterday.

re on prices. The

oz and closed at

nt on account of

g after touching a

er note in today’s

ith upbeat global

ed on account of

arkets, prices will

in previous trade.

s on the MCX.

uly 30, 2013

Resistance

1333/1342

28400/28600

20.0/20.25

41500/41900

Report ly 30, 2013


) as on 29 July, 2013

Prev.

dayWoW MoM

-0.5 -0.6 10.6

-0.3 0.9 5.7

-0.1 0.2 7.9

0.5 -0.5 6.8

3.2 2.6 11.4

Source

e) as on 29 July, 2013

Prev day WoW MoM

-0.7 -3.5 7.4

0.9 0.5 4.1

0.4 0.8 8.0

0.5 -1.9 2.9

0.9 -2.6 6.1

Source

Source: T



International Commoditiesnergy

rude Oil

ymex crude oil prices declined around 0.1 percent

ade taking cues from decline in US pending homerength in the DX coupled with weak global market

essure on prices.

dditionally, expectations of slow economic growth i

estimates of decline in demand for the fuel t

egative factor. Crude oil prices touched an

103.87/bbl and closed at $104.60/oz in last trading

n the domestic bourses, MCX crude August contrac

ercent on account of depreciation in the Rupee a

uched a high of Rs.6,174/bbl and closed at Rs.6,251

PI Inventories Forecast

e American Petroleum Institute (API) is sched

eekly inventories today and US crude oil inventori

ecline by 2.3 million barrels for the week ending on

asoline stocks are expected to drop by 0.3 million b

ventories are expected to shoot up by 0.8 million b

eek.

utlook

om the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil

gher note on the back of expectations of fall

ventories. Further, upbeat global markets and wea

pport an upside in prices. Additionally, unrest in

ositive factor for prices. However, sharp upside

sult of forecast for slow economic growth in US an

timates of fall in US consumer confidence data in

event sharp upside in prices. Appreciation in the R

ins in prices on the MCX.

chnical Outlook valid

Unit Suppo

NYMEX Crude Oil $/bbl 103.40/102.4

MCX Crude Aug’13 Rs/bbl 6200/614


w

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% c

Crude Oil Unit Last

Brent

(Spot) $/bbl 109.2

Nymex

Crude (Sep

’13)

$/bbl 104.6

ICE Brent

Crude

(Sep’13)

$/bbl 107.5

MCX Crude

(Aug ’13) Rs/bbl 6251.0

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

Natural

Gas (NG)Unit Last Pre

Nymex

NG

$/mmbtu 3.473

MCX NG

(Aug ’13)

Rs/

mmbtu

208.2

Technical Chart – NYMEX Crude

Technical Chart – NYMEX Natural

in the yesterday’s

sales data. Further,exerted downside

in China and US led

ereby acting as a

intra-day low of

ession.

gained around 0.6

nd crude oil prices

/bbl on Monday.

led to release its

es are expected to

26th July 2013.

arrels and distillate

arrels for the same

rices to trade on a

in API crude oil

kness in the DX will

Egypt will act as a

ill be capped as a

Chinese economy.

vening session will

upee will cap sharp

for July 30, 2013

t Resistance

0 104.90/105.70

0 6290/6340

Report ly 30, 2013


ange) as on 29 July, 2013

Prev.

dayWoW MoM

0.5 -0.7 6.0

-0.1 -2.2 6.7

0.3 -0.6 4.5

0.6 -1.8 6.9

Source

(% change) as on 29 July, 2

. day WoW MoM

-2.4 -6.26 -2.61

-1.0 -4.93 -3.30

Source

il

Source: T

Gas

Source: T



International Commoditiesase Metals

e base metals complex traded on a mixed note in

ade as a result of decline in US pending home sal

xed LME inventories scenario also exerted downs

ices.

dditionally, strength in the DX along with wea

ntiments acted as a negative factor.

the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee sup

prices on the MCX.

opper

pper prices traded on a positive note yesterda

ound 0.3 percent on the back of decline in LME Co

ound 0.4 percent which stood at 618,775 tonnes.

owever, sharp upside in prices was restricted as a r

the DX, weak global market along with decline in U

les data. The red metal touched an intra-day high

d closed at $6875/tonne in yesterday’s trading ses

n the domestic front, prices gained 0.6 percent

preciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs. 410.90/

high of Rs.411.30/kg on Monday.

utlook

today’s session, we expect base metals group to

te on the back of decline in pending home sales da

ade. Expectations of slow economic growth in Chi

l in Japan’s industrial production will add do

rther, forecast for decline in US consumer confi

ade coupled with estimates that US GDP will grow

cond quarter will act as a negative factor. Howe

e DX coupled with upbeat global markets will cush

e Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupeewnside pressure in prices on the MCX.

chnical Outlook valid for July 30, 20

Unit Support

CX Copper Aug’13 Rs /kg 407/403

CX Zinc July ’13 Rs /kg 107.50/106.80

CX Lead July ’13 Rs /kg 122.0/121.20

CX Aluminum July’13 Rs /kg 103.80/102.80

CX Nickel July ’13 Rs /kg 805/798


w

the yesterday’s

s data. Further,

ide pressure on

global market

orted an upside

and increased

pper inventories

esult of strength

S pending home

of $6891/tonne

ion.

on the back of

g after touching

trade on lower

ta in yesterday’s

na coupled with

nside pressure.

ence in today’s

t slower pace in

er, weakness in

ion sharp fall. In

will add more

13

Resistance

412/416

109.0/109.80

123.50/124.50

105.50/106.50

817/825

Market Highlights - Base Metals (% ch

Unit Last

LME Copper (3

month)

$/tonne 6875.0

MCX Copper

(Aug’13)

Rs/kg 410.9

LME Aluminum

(3 month)

$/tonne 1801.5

MCX Aluminum

(July’13)

Rs /kg 104.5

LME Nickel

(3 month)

$/tonne 13716.0

MCX Nickel

(July’13)

Rs /kg 812.0

LME Lead

(3 month)

$/tonne 2069.0

MCX Lead

(July’13)

Rs /kg 122.8

LME Zinc

(3 month)

$/tonne 1852.3

MCX Zinc

(July’13)

Rs /kg 108.3

LME Inventories

Unit 29th

July

Copper tonnes 618,775

Aluminum tonnes 5,476,175

Nickel tonnes 200,280

Zinc tonnes 1,055,125

Lead tonnes 198,350

Technical Chart – LME Copper

Report ly 30, 2013


ange) as on 29 July, 2013

Prev. day WoW MoM

0.3 -1.9 -12.4

0.6 -2.1 1.7

0.2 -2.2 1.7

0.4 -2.8 0.8

-0.9 -2.9 -0.8

-0.4 -3.0 -1.6

0.7 0.7 1.0

1.4 0.9 0.2

0.2 -1.2 0.2

0.4 -1.5 -0.7

Source

26th

July Actual

Change

621,175 -2,400

5,483,175 -7,000

199,578 702

1,051,025 4,100

198,250 100 Source

Source:




Important Events for Today

Indicator Country

Household Spending y/y Japan

Prelim Industrial Production m/m Japan

GfK German Consumer Climate Euro

German Prelim CPI m/m Euro

Spanish Flash GDP q/q Euro

Italian 10-y Bond Auction Euro

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y US

CB Consumer Confidence US


Time (IST) Actual Forecast Pre

5:00am -0.4% 1.2% -1

5:20am -3.3% -1.4% 1.

11:30am - 6.9

All day - 0.3% 0.

12:30pm - -0.1% -0

Tentative - - 4.5

6:30pm - 12.4% 12

7:30pm - 81.1 8

Report ly 30, 2013

ious Impact

.6% Medium

.9% Medium

.8 Medium

.1% Medium

.5% Medium

5/1.5 Medium

.1% Medium

1.4 High

Documents

Daily Metals and Energy Report, July 30 2013