27 July Daily technical trader

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  1. 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader Qatar Monday, 27 July 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price 1 st Target DHBK 53.50 54.40 ERES 17.90 17.50 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 11,909.17 -0.3 3.2 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,000 12,150 12,200 Support 11,900 11,800 11,700 QSE Index Commentary Overview: The Index moved down by 0.3% on shallow traded volumes another day. We reiterate our bearish short-term view point as the Index is going the same challenges as before (moving below its SMAs and the MACD is below zero on both time frames). Expected Resistance Level: 12,000 Expected Support Level: 11,900 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 26 Jul 23 Jul %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 167.9 175.4 -4.3 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 632.6 633.9 -0.2 Volume (mn) 3.5 3.6 -4.5 Number of Trans. 5,617 3,297 70.4 Companies Traded 41 40 2.5 Market Breadth 14:22 25:11 QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,511.09 -0.3 45.1 All Share Index 3,193.10 -0.2 46.2 Banks 3,141.79 0.1 47.4 Industrials 3,789.81 -0.4 38.1 Transportation 2,469.18 0.1 55.9 Real Estate 2,741.27 -0.7 49.9 Insurance 4,815.71 -1.3 55.4 Telecoms 1,137.12 -0.1 35.9 Consumer 7,551.65 0.4 68.9 Al Rayan Islamic 4,678.06 0.0 53.8 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI MERS 281.20 3.0 78.0 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI GISS 73.30 0.1 26.5 QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  2. 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6 DHBK Price % Ch. Volume Last 53.50 -0.19 37,989 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 53.60 54.40 55.00 Support 53.40 52.50 52.00 Commentary Overview: Although the bank has been moving under its medium-term downtrend, the flattish short-term attitude might be positive. The price is challenging its 50SMA and trading above its 100SMA, which are both positive signs. Expected Target Price: QR54.40 QR55.00 A price breakout above QR53.60 triggers the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR53.40 (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  3. 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6 ERES Price % Ch. Volume Last 17.90 -1.05 845,868 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 18.00 18.15 18.40 Support 17.80 17.50 17.20 Commentary Overview: ERES has been trading above its medium-term uptrend line, but a correction is possible. Although the price has been trading above its 50 and 100SMAs, it was challenged by the 200SMA last week and failed to break above it. Expected Price Retreat: QR17.50 QR17.20 A price breach below QR17.80 triggers the sell recommendation. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  4. 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 11,909.17 11,865.66 11,888.03 11,901.85 11,924.23 11,946.60 11,960.42 11,982.80 12,090.52 12,010.11 12,357.67 Total Return 18,511.09 18,443.46 18,478.23 18,499.72 18,534.50 18,569.27 18,590.76 18,625.54 18,790.38 18,627.45 18,806.69 All Share 3,193.10 3,186.05 3,189.73 3,192.01 3,195.70 3,199.38 3,201.66 3,205.35 3,230.81 3,206.13 3,226.80 Al Rayan Islamic 4,678.06 4,640.57 4,656.10 4,665.69 4,681.21 4,696.74 4,706.33 4,721.85 4,668.54 4,551.01 4,430.45 Banks & Financials Services MARK 45.60 45.47 45.54 45.59 45.67 45.74 45.79 45.87 45.82 46.64 47.22 CBQK 54.80 54.67 54.74 54.79 54.87 54.94 54.99 55.07 55.20 56.72 60.11 DHBK 53.50 52.90 53.09 53.21 53.40 53.59 53.71 53.90 53.66 53.12 55.34 QIBK 109.60 106.93 107.74 108.23 109.03 109.84 110.33 111.13 106.72 103.91 104.94 QIIK 78.80 78.27 78.46 78.58 78.77 78.96 79.08 79.27 79.53 80.12 81.73 Insurance QATI 99.20 97.53 98.34 98.83 99.63 100.44 100.93 101.73 97.18 87.92 83.57 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 191.50 169.17 177.95 183.38 192.17 200.95 206.38 215.17 181.49 168.28 147.55 Industrials IQCD 133.10 132.30 132.76 133.04 133.50 133.96 134.24 134.70 138.05 140.09 156.04 QEWS 224.10 221.70 222.54 223.06 223.90 224.74 225.26 226.10 220.12 207.98 198.60 GISS 73.30 71.23 72.15 72.72 73.63 74.55 75.12 76.03 78.92 84.25 94.76 QIGD 51.80 50.40 50.90 51.20 51.70 52.20 52.50 53.00 53.07 48.36 46.07 Real Estate BRES 50.60 50.33 50.49 50.58 50.73 50.89 50.98 51.13 51.40 49.67 47.33 UDCD 25.25 24.62 24.81 24.93 25.12 25.31 25.43 25.62 24.00 23.16 24.14 ERES 17.90 17.55 17.71 17.81 17.97 18.13 18.23 18.39 18.29 17.25 17.05 MRDS 18.38 18.24 18.32 18.37 18.45 18.53 18.58 18.66 18.80 18.49 19.20 Telecommunication ORDS 82.90 82.10 82.44 82.66 83.00 83.34 83.56 83.90 89.09 95.94 107.25 VFQS 16.27 16.16 16.22 16.25 16.30 16.36 16.39 16.44 16.69 17.09 17.31 Transportation QGTS 22.39 22.14 22.21 22.26 22.34 22.41 22.46 22.54 22.35 22.62 23.14 QNNS 98.00 95.93 96.70 97.17 97.93 98.70 99.17 99.93 97.84 99.50 99.21 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
  5. 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  6. 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6 Contacts: Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (QNBFS) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (QNB). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS belie