DAILY MARKET REPORT - Valbury E-capitalvalburyecapital.com/research-pdf-file/44-Daily... · causing these banks to suffer," Mark Foulds, sales trader at ETX Capital, said, adding

Research Department

January 19, 2016

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DAILY MARKET REPORT GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS |

CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |

GLOBAL MARKETS

• Asian shares ended lower on weaker US economic data – battered Wall Street index to

multi year record low and the slump in oil prices after Iran’s sanction lifted on the

weekend.

• Euro zone banks weighed on European stocks on Monday after news that the European

Central Bank was scrutinising some non-performing loans, sending a top index back to

its lowest point in over a year.

• European shares fell on Monday, following Asia lower and led by banks after the

European Central Bank said it would quiz euro zone lenders about high levels of bad

loans, while oil prices tumbled on the prospect of more supply from Iran.

GLOBAL ECONOMIES

• China's yuan rose on Monday as the central bank announced a fresh move to deter

offshore speculation in the currency, while stocks rebounded modestly from near levels

last seen at the depths of last year's summer crash.

• The Bank of Japan expressed disappointment at how slowly companies are raising pay

despite a tightening job market, suggesting its readiness to expand stimulus if the recent

market turmoil further delays wage hikes.

• The European Central Bank is unlikely to cut its deposit rate further in the next six

months, even though inflation expectations have nosedived, according to a slim

majority of euro money market traders in a Reuters poll.

• Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is unlikely to make many predictions for the

coming year when he delivers his first keynote speech of 2016 on Tuesday.

• The worst ever start to a year for financial markets has left traders and economists

rethinking the global monetary policy outlook, with some predicting the Federal Reserve

will quickly reverse last month's historic rate rise.

January 19, 2016

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 2

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES

GLOBAL MARKETS

Asia – Asian shares ended lower on weaker US economic data –

battered Wall Street index to multi year record low and the slump in oil

prices after Iran’s sanction lifted on the weekend. Japanese stocks fell

amid continued unease over China's economic outlook and the slide in

crude oil prices to lows not seen since 2003.

South Korean shares erased early losses and closed flat, as institutional

buying of beaten-down stocks supported defensive act towards a slump

in oil prices and a big sell-off on Wall Street.

China stocks bounced off 13-month intraday lows early and closed

higher, led by a sharp rebound in growth board ChiNext.

Hong Kong's benchmark index dropped to its lowest level in more than

three years, with investors' risk appetites soured by resumed declines in

oil prices plus Friday's tumbles for share prices in the United States and

Europe.

Euro Zone – Euro zone banks weighed on European stocks on Monday

after news that the European Central Bank was scrutinising some non-

performing loans, sending a top index back to its lowest point in over a

year.

The euro zone bank sector fell 3.1 percent, with traders citing news

over the weekend that the ECB is quizzing a number of euro zone banks

about non-performing loans as it ramps up efforts to tackle the region's

mountain of bad debt.

Spain's Banco de Sabadell, France's Credit Agricole and Portugal's Banco

Comercial Portugues slipped 4.5-7.8 percent.

Italy provided many of the sector's top fallers, with Banco Monte Paschi

down 14.8 percent, and Banco Popolare, UniCredit and Mediobanca

down 6.7-4.8 percent.

Italian banks outperformed their peers last year, but brokers are

starting to turn more negative on the sector.

Bank stocks weighed on the euro zone-only Euro STOXX 50, which fell

0.6 percent, underperforming the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300,

which fell 0.3 percent at 1,293.29.

"The uncertainty in the market, be it in Europe or wherever else, is

causing these banks to suffer," Mark Foulds, sales trader at ETX Capital,

said. The sector is also under pressure from the recent volatility over

China, he added.

"When the markets fall like they have done, everyone feels on edge.

The market is dire, and there's not the liquidity that there used to be,

which can mean the market gets oversold."

The FTSEurofirst 300 touched its lowest level in more than a year. Some

said the ECB might act to provide more stimulus when it meets later this

week, given the 10 percent drop in European shares driven by weak oil

prices and concerns over China.

"This week’s ECB meeting might highlight that the ECB has some

options available. We doubt that this will be sufficient to stop the

downward pressure in the medium term," strategists at RBC said in a

note.

Energy shares stabilised after a steep drop last session, up 0.1 percent,

after both Brent and U.S. crude rose off their lowest levels since 2003,

although oil remained under pressure after sanctions on Iran were

lifted.

Top climber overall was Adidas, up 6.3 percent, after it appointed

Henkel's Kasper Rorsted as CEO. Henkel's shares fell 4.1 percent.

Mobile telecoms gear maker Ericsson rose 2.9 percent after Nordea

Markets raised its rating on the stock to "buy", although French

supermarket retailer Casino fell 8.4 percent after ratings agency

Standard & Poor's threatened to downgrade its debt to junk status.

U.S. & Global Markets – European shares fell on Monday, following

Asia lower and led by banks after the European Central Bank said it

would quiz euro zone lenders about high levels of bad loans, while oil

prices tumbled on the prospect of more supply from Iran.

With U.S. markets closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday, U.S.

stock index futures slipped 0.3 percent.

An ECB spokesman said on Sunday a number of banks would be asked

about high levels of non-performing loans. The burden of such loans,

particularly in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, is curbing the euro

zone's economic recovery by limiting banks' ability to lend.

Portuguese stocks were down 3.4 percent and Italy lost 2.3 percent

"The uncertainty in the market, be it in Europe or wherever else, is

causing these banks to suffer," Mark Foulds, sales trader at ETX Capital,

said, adding that the sector was also under pressure from recent

volatility linked to China.

The volatile Shanghai Composite index touched intraday lows last seen

in August but closed up 0.4 percent. It remains down nearly 18 percent

this month. (Source Reuters – @her1en-@nikolasprasetia)

GLOBAL ECONOMIES

China – – China's yuan rose on Monday as the central bank announced

a fresh move to deter offshore speculation in the currency, while stocks

rebounded modestly from near levels last seen at the depths of last

year's summer crash.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it would start implementing a

reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on offshore banks' domestic deposits,

in a move that seemed intended to soak up additional liquidity.

"The market sees that this is a gesture by the PBOC to warn speculators

that are betting on a fast depreciation of its currency," said Zhou Hao,

senior emerging markets economist for Asia at Commerzbank AG in

Singapore.

A turbulent start to 2016, with currency and stock markets tumbling,

has stoked concerns that Beijing's policymakers are in danger of

fumbling as China heads towards its slowest growth in 25 years. Beijing

will release GDP data for 2015 on Tuesday.

Global markets have also tumbled in January, with Asian shares sliding

on Monday to their lowest levels since 2011 following weak U.S.

economic data and sharp falls in oil prices.

Ever-contrary, China's notoriously volatile stock markets opened sharply

lower on Monday but reversed course to buck the global trend, with the

benchmark Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI300 index of the

largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen both edging up 0.4

percent.

After recent jitters about the health of the world's second-biggest

economy, investors took some comfort from data that showed a

continuing recovery in the housing market.

But sentiment remained fragile, with analysts expecting further

turbulence ahead.

Chinese equities had tumbled on Friday, with the Shanghai index closing

lower than at any time since December 2014, leaving most investors

who put their faith in Beijing's measures to end last summer's crash

nursing losses.

"After experiencing the crashes last year, the sentiment is quite

vulnerable and pessimistic now," said Xiao Shijun, an analyst at Guodu

Securities in Beijing.

January 19, 2016


Japan – The Bank of Japan expressed disappointment at how slowly

companies are raising pay despite a tightening job market, suggesting

its readiness to expand stimulus if the recent market turmoil further

delays wage hikes.

But BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintained his upbeat view on the

economy and offered no clear signs that additional stimulus may be

forthcoming this month.

"Japan's economy is expected to continue recovering moderately," he

told a meeting of the BOJ's regional branch managers on Monday,

making no mention of the global market turmoil that has sent Tokyo

stocks tumbling.

Wage growth is crucial to the BOJ's goal of accelerating inflation - now

barely above zero - to 2 percent, as higher wages give consumers more

money to spend and let firms raise prices.

In a report on Japan's regional economies, the BOJ said some firms in

big cities are keen to raise salaries. But it signalled frustration with the

pace of increases nationwide.

"Many small- and medium-sized companies in regional areas remain

cautious of raising regular pay for permanent employees," the central

bank said in the quarterly report.

"For now, momentum toward raising salaries next fiscal year has failed

to gain steam," with many firms wary of a shrinking domestic market

and global uncertainties, it said.

The gloomy view on wages underscores the challenges the BOJ faces in

eradicating Japan's sticky deflationary mindset.

Slumping oil costs have weighed on consumer prices and inflation

expectations, keeping alive anticipation of more easing as early as the

Jan. 28-29 rate review.

Euro Zone – The European Central Bank is unlikely to cut its deposit

rate further in the next six months, even though inflation expectations

have nosedived, according to a slim majority of euro money market

traders in a Reuters poll.

Fourteen of 25 traders polled on Monday do not expect the ECB to

repeat the 10 basis points shave it made in December. The remaining 11

trader said it would.

Currently sitting at -0.3 percent, the negative deposit rate effectively

means banks have to pay the ECB to park money overnight.

Expectations for inflation have plunged as oil prices have fallen further

and are not expected to rise anytime soon, according to a separate

Reuters poll last week.

The regular survey showed banks will take 65 billion euros ($70.8

billion) from the ECB at its weekly refinancing operation, similar to the

65.74 billion euros maturing from last week.

Forecasts ranged from 60 billion to 75 billion euros.

UK – Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is unlikely to make many

predictions for the coming year when he delivers his first keynote

speech of 2016 on Tuesday.

Since taking over the central bank nearly three years ago, Carney has

been wrong-footed on a number of occasions by the British economy's

twists and turns after the financial crisis.

This may prompt him to tread carefully when he speaks at the

University of London.

In the most recent version of his favoured forward guidance policy,

Carney said last July that a decision on when to raise interest rates

would probably become clearer about now.

But the only thing that is clear is that the BoE will not start easing

Britain off ultra-low borrowing costs any time soon.

"Right now it's hard to forecast when interest rate hikes are coming in

the UK. We have had a number of pretty big surprises which have

buffeted the Bank," Rob Wood, a former BoE economist who now

works for Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, said.

"Forward guidance is a tricky thing. There is no crystal ball out there to

say exactly where the economy is going to be in one or two years'

time."

When Carney arrived at the BoE from the Bank of Canada in 2013, he

brought with him a policy of giving guidance to investors and business

on what was likely to happen with interest rates.

Backed by finance minister George Osborne who was keen to find new

ways of getting Britain's economy out of its stagnation, it represented a

big break from the more cautious, wait-and-see approach of his

predecessor Mervyn King.

But Carney was forced into a quick rethink. He had said the Bank would

not even think about raising rates until Britain's unemployment rate fell

to 7 percent - something that then took only a few months rather than

the three years the BoE had forecast.

Then, in the summer of 2014, with Britain's economy growing strongly,

Carney warned investors that rates could rise sooner than markets

expected, only for global oil prices to begin a tumble which pushed

British inflation below zero and scotched any rate hike plans at the BoE.

US – The worst ever start to a year for financial markets has left traders

and economists rethinking the global monetary policy outlook, with

some predicting the Federal Reserve will quickly reverse last month's

historic rate rise.

The Fed lifted U.S. interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade on

Dec. 16, signalling its faith that the economy had finally put the 2007-08

financial crisis behind it.

Ferocious volatility fuelled by worries about China's currency and stock

markets has since wiped trillions of dollars off world stocks, however,

while a slowing China has exacerbated worries about the robustness of

U.S. economic growth.

Interest rate futures traders are already paring back their expectations

of when the Fed might tighten again while several big banks this week

dovishly revised their 2016 outlooks for the Bank of England, European

Central Bank and Bank of Canada.

"You shouldn't underestimate that a change in where the market sees

rates going could happen pretty quickly. Another month of what we've

seen this year, and we could be there," said Steve Barrow, head of G10

strategy at Standard Bank in London.

The Fed made clear when announcing "liftoff" that it broadly

anticipated four further 25 basis point increases this year, a view

echoed by Fed officials in recent speeches.

The latest Reuters poll of 120 economists points to the federal funds

rate, currently 0.25-0.50 percent, reaching 1.00- 1.25 percent by the

end of the year and rising more in 2017.

But U.S. interest rate futures markets show barely two rate hikes priced

in for this year, while the 10-year Treasury yield has slumped below 2

percent. It was 2.30 percent when the Fed raised rates last month.

The timing of any volte face from the Fed isn't yet reflected in market

pricing, and examples from Sweden, Australia and the euro zone --

where central banks were forced to reverse rate hike cycles -- show it

may not be until the last minute.

All those central banks raised interest rates after the 2008 crisis, but

now have them at historic lows -- below zero in the case of Sweden.

"The markets don't believe the Fed. I said at the time of the December

raise it was a mistake and gave a 50/50 chance that the next move

would be a cut," said David Blanchflower, professor of economics at

Dartmouth College in New Hampshire and a former Bank of England

policymaker.

"September may be the meeting when we see a cut, but maybe sooner

if markets continue to collapse."

Some $5.7 trillion has been wiped off the value of world stocks in the

first nine days of the year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

(Source Reuters, Research-@her1en)

January 19, 2016


WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR ( Jan. 18 - 22, 2016)

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV

MON/18-Jan 05.30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Dec -0.5 N/A % 1.0

18~19/Jan 06.30 AU TD-MI Inflation Gauge Dec 0.2 N/A % 0.1

08.30 CN China House Prices YY Dec 1.6 N/A % 0.9

09.00 NZ RBNZ Offshore Holdings Dec 63.8 N/A % 64.1

11.30 JP Industrial Output Rev Nov -0.9 N/A % -1.0

11.30 JP Capacity Util Idx Chg MM Nov -0.1 N/A % 1.3

All Day US Market Holiday -Martin L. King Jr Day

TUE/19-Jan 04.00 KR PPI Growth YY Dec -3.9 N/A % -4.6 -4.7

04.00 KR PPI Growth Dec -0.2 N/A % -0.3 -0.4

04.00 NZ NZIER Confidence Q4 15.0 N/A % -14.0

04.00 NZ NZIER QSBO Capacity Q4 93.2 N/A % 91.4

09.00 CN Urban Investment (ytd) YY Dec 10.2 % 10.2

09.00 CN Industrial Output YY Dec 6.0 % 6.2

09.00 CN Retail Sales YY Dec 11.3 % 11.2

09.00 CN GDP YY Q4 6.8 % 6.9

09.00 CN GDP QQ SA Q4 1.7 % 1.8

14.00 DE CPI Final MM Dec -0.1 % -0.1

14.00 DE CPI Final YY Dec 0.3 % 0.3

14.00 DE HICP Final MM Dec 0.0 % 0.0

14.00 DE HICP Final YY Dec 0.2 % 0.2

15.15 CH Producer/Import Price MM Dec N/A % 0.4

15.15 CH Producer/Import Price YY Dec N/A % -5.5

15.30 HK Unemployment Rate Dec N/A % 3.3

16.00 EZ Current Account NSA EUR Nov N/A B 25.9

16.00 EZ Current Account SA EUR Nov N/A B 20.4

16.00 EZ Net Investment Flow EUR Nov N/A B 47.6

16.30 GB CPI MM Dec 0.0 % 0.0

16.30 GB CPI YY Dec 0.1 % 0.1

16.30 GB Core CPI MM Dec 0.1 % 0.0

16.30 GB Core CPI YY Dec 1.2 % 1.2

16.30 GB RPI MM Dec 0.2 % 0.1

16.30 GB RPI YY Dec 1.1 % 1.1

16.30 GB RPI-X (Retail Prices) MM Dec N/A % 0.1

16.30 GB RPIX YY Dec N/A % 1.1

16.30 GB PPI Input Prices MM NSA Dec -1.7 % -1.6

16.30 GB PPI Input Prices YY NSA Dec -11.7 % -13.1

16.30 GB PPI Output Prices MM NSA Dec -0.2 % -0.2

16.30 GB PPI Output Prices YY NSA Dec -1.2 % -1.5

16.30 GB PPI Core Output MM NSA Dec 0.0 % -0.2

16.30 GB PPI Core Output YY NSA Dec -0.1 % -0.1

17.00 DE ZEW Economic Sentiment Jan 8.2 IND 16.1

17.00 DE ZEW Current Conditions Jan 54.0 IND 55.0

17.00 EZ Inflation Final MM Dec 0.0 % -0.1

17.00 EZ Inflation Final YY Dec 0.2 % 0.2

17.00 EZ Inflation Core MM Dec 0.3 % -0.2

17.00 EZ Inflation Core YY Dec 0.9 % 0.9

N/A NZ GDT Price Index N/A N/A % -1.6

22.00 US NAHB Housing Market Idx Jan 61 IND 61

04.00 US Net L-T Flows Exswaps Nov N/A B -16.6

04.00 US Foreign Buying T-Bonds Nov N/A B -55.2

04.00 US Overall Net Capital Flow Nov N/A B 68.9

04.00 US Net L-T Flows Incl Swaps Nov N/A B -29.5

WED/20-Jan 04.45 NZ CPI QQ Q4 N/A % 0.3

04.45 NZ CPI YY Q4 N/A % 0.4

06.30 JP Reuters Tankan DI Jan N/A IND 9

20~21/Jan 06.30 AU Consumer Sentiment Jan N/A % -0.8

January 19, 2016


14.00 DE Producer Prices MM Dec -0.4 % -0.2

14.00 DE Producer Prices YY Dec -2.2 % -2.5

16.30 GB Claimant Count Unemp Chg. Dec 2.5 K 3.9

16.30 GB ILO Unemployment Rate Nov 5.2 % 5.2

16.30 GB Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY Nov 2.1 % 2.4

16.30 GB Avg Earnings (ex-Bonus) Nov 1.8 % 2.0

17.00 CH ZEW Investor Sentiment Jan N/A IND 16.6

20.30 CA Manufacturing Sales MM Nov 0.4 % -1.1

20.30 CA Wholesale Trade MM Nov N/A % -0.6

20.30 US CPI MM SA Dec 0.0 % 0.0

20.30 US CPI YY NSA Dec 0.8 % 0.5

20.30 US Core CPI MM SA Dec 0.2 % 0.2

20.30 US Core CPI YY NSA Dec 2.1 % 2.0

20.30 US CPI Index NSA Dec 236.67 IND 237.34

20.30 US Core CPI Index SA Dec N/A IND 244.14

20.30 US Real Weekly Earnings MM Dec N/A % -0.2

20.30 US Building Permits: Numb. Dec 1.200 M 1.282

20.30 US Build Permits: Chg. MM Dec -6.4 % 10.4

20.30 US Housing Starts Number MM Dec 1.200 M 1.173

20.30 US House Starts MM: Chg Dec 1.6 % 10.5

20.30 US Cleveland Fed CPI Dec N/A % 0.2

22.00 CA BoC Rate Decision N/A 0.5 % 0.5

22.00 CA BoC Stat. & Monetary Policy Report

23.00 US EIA Weekly Crude Inventories w/e N/A M 0.234

23.15 CA BoC Press Conference

THU/21-Jan 04.30 NZ Manufacturing PMI Dec N/A IND 54.7

07.00 AU MI Inflation Expectations N/A N/A % 4.0

07.00 AU HIA New Home Sales M/M Nov N/A % -3.0

07.01 GB RICS Housing Survey Dec 51 IND 49

08.35 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Flash Jan N/A IND 52.6

19.45 EZ ECB Refinancing Rate Jan N/A % 0.05

19.45 EZ ECB Deposit Rate Jan N/A % -0.3

20.30 EZ ECB Press Conference

20.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E N/A K 284

20.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E N/A K 278.75

20.30 US Continued Jobless Claims W/E N/A M 2.263

20.30 US Philly Fed Business Idx Jan -5.0 IND -5.9

20.30 US Philly Fed Employment Jan N/A IND 4.10

20.30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid Jan N/A IND -9.80

22.00 EZ Consumer Confid Flash Jan -5.7 IND -5.7

FRI/22-Jan 08.35 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Flash Jan N/A IND 52.6

15.30 DE Markit Mfg Flash PMI Jan 53.0 IND 53.2

15.30 DE Markit Service Flash PMI Jan 55.5 IND 56.0

15.30 DE Markit Comp Flash PMI Jan N/A IND 55.5

16.00 EZ Markit Mfg Flash PMI Jan 53.3 IND 53.2

16.00 EZ Markit Serv. Flash PMI Jan 54.3 IND 54.2

16.00 EZ Markit Comp Flash PMI Jan 54.3 IND 54.3

16.30 GB PSNB Ex Banks GBP Dec 10.500 B 14.160

16.30 GB PSNB MM GBP Dec N/A B 13.557

16.30 GB PSNCR MM GBP Dec N/A B 5.381

16.30 GB Retail Sales MM Dec -0.3 % 1.7

16.30 GB Retail Sales YY Dec 4.2 % 5.0

16.30 GB Core Retail Sales MM Dec -0.3 % 1.7

16.30 GB Core Retail Sales YY Dec 3.5 % 3.9

20.30 CA CPI Inflation MM Dec -0.3 % -0.1

20.30 CA CPI Inflation YY Dec 1.8 % 1.4

20.30 CA CPI BoC Core YY Dec 2.1 % 2

20.30 CA CPI BoC Core MM Dec -0.2 % -0.3

20.30 CA Retail Sales MM Nov 0.1 % 0.1

20.30 CA Retail Sales Ex-Autos Nov 0.3 % 0.0

20.30 US National Activity Index Dec N/A IND -0.30

January 19, 2016


(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX-Tradingeconomics-Forexfactory/Research: @nikolasprasetia-@her1en)

21.45 US Markit Mfg PMI Flash Jan 51.5 IND 51.2

22.00 US Existing Home Sales Dec 5.20 M 4.76

22.00 US Exist. Home Sales % Chg. Dec 8.5 % -10.5

22.00 US Leading Index Chg MM Dec -0.1 % 0.4

January 19, 2016


ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS – Daily Outlook

Japanese stocks fell on Monday amid continued unease over China's

economic outlook and the slide in crude oil prices to lows not seen

since 2003.

Wall Street stumbled with the S&P 500 sinking to its lowest since

October 2014 as oil prices sank below $30 per barrel and fears grew

about economic trouble in China. A batch of disappointing U.S. data,

including a fall in retail sales, added to worries about the global

economy.

Although sentiment remains sour, traders say some investors are

scooping up battered stocks after the dollar recovered above the

117.00 yen line in Asian trade after dropping to 116.56 yen, from

117.10 late in New York. The pair last stood at

"Most investors must have freaked out after seeing a sharp fall in the

market. But some of them seem to be buying on the dips when the

Nikkei traded below 16,700 points," said Takatoshi Itoshima, chief

portfolio manager at Commons Asset Management. "The performances

in the Japanese market will likely depend on the forex moves for the

time being. As long as the dollar does not drop against the yen sharply,

the Nikkei may be supported."

The Nikkei share average fell 1.1 percent to 16,955.57, its lowest close

in a year.

The JPX-Nikkei Index 400 declined 1 percent to 12,498.67.

South Korean shares erased early losses and closed flat on Monday, as

institutional buying of beaten-down stocks supported defensive act

towards a slump in oil prices and a big sell-off on Wall Street.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) closed at 1,878.45,

virtually unchanged from Friday's close of 1,878.87.

"The market is facing pressure from risk factors abroad, such as the

extended fall in oil prices and persistent foreign selling of local stocks,"

said Cho Byung-hyun, a stock analyst at Yuanta Securities.

International sanctions have been lifted, allowing Tehran to return to

an already oversupplied oil market, with oil prices falling in anticipation

of Iran's return.

Foreigners were net sellers for an eighth straight session, offloading a

net 344.9 billion won ($285.04 million) worth of shares on the main

board, preliminary data showed.

The South Korean won gained modestly, supported by China's efforts

to stabilise the yuan. The local currency was quoted at 1,210.9 to the

dollar at the conclusion of onshore trade, up 0.2 percent from the

previous close of 1,213.4.

China stocks bounced off 13-month intraday lows early Monday and

closed higher, led by a sharp rebound in growth board ChiNext

The CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and

Shenzhen rose 0.4 percent, to 3,130.73, while the Shanghai Composite

Index gained 0.4 percent, to 2,913.84 points.

The growth board jumped 3.2 percent.

Property shares recovered from initial losses and climbed 0.4 percent,

after data showed China's home prices continued to rise in December

2015, adding to signs of improvements in the housing market.

Hong Kong's benchmark index dropped to its lowest level in more

than three years on Monday, with investors' risk appetites soured by

resumed declines in oil prices plus Friday's tumbles for share prices in

the United States and Europe.

The Hang Seng index fell 1.5 percent, to 19,237.45, while the China

Enterprises Index lost 1.2 percent, to 8,134.81 points.

Among the most actively traded stocks on Hong Kong's main board

were CCT Land, unchanged at HK$0.03; Bank Of China, down 1.6

percent to HK$2.99; and Jun Yang Financial Holdings, down 7.7 percent

to HK$0.04.

Total trading volume of companies included in the HSI index was 2.1

billion shares. (Source Reuters, Research: @nikolasprasetia)

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87

(29/Dec/89)

295.51

(03/May/11)

31958.41

(30/Oct/07)

18351.36

(19/May/2015)

2134.72

(20/May/2015)

6124.04400

(16/Oct./07)

2015 HIGH 20952.71

(24/Jun/2015)

275.11

(24/Apr/2015)

28588.52

(27/Apr/2015)

18351.36

(19/May/2015)

2134.72

(20/May/2015)

5178.19100

(12/Jun/2015)

2016 HIGH 18951.12

(04/Jan/16)

239.35

(04/Jan/16)

21794.84

(04/Jan/16)

17405.48

(04/Jan/16)

2038.20

(04/Jan/16)

3538.68940

(04/Jan/16)

2016 LOW 16944.41

(14/Jan/16)

228.01

(15/Jan/16)

19500.38

(15/Jan/16)

15842.11

(15/Jan/16)

1857.83

(15/Jan/16)

2867.55320

(14/Jan/16)

2015 LOW 16592.57

(16/Jan/2015)

217.52

(24/Aug/2015)

20368.12

(29/Sep/2015)

15370.33

(24/Aug/2015)

1867.01

(24/Aug/2015)

2850.71350

(26/Aug/2015)

RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98)

58.61

(31/Aug/67)

388.20

(17/Jan/55)

132.93

(23/Nov./82)

325.92200

(29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 18 January 2016

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI HOLIDAY � 390.97 / 2.39% .N225 16955.57 � 191.54/1.12%

/.SPX HOLIDAY � 41.55 / 2.16% .KS200 228.59 � 0.19/0.08%

/.IXIC HOLIDAY � 126.586/2.74% .HSI 19237.45 � 283.32/1.45%

JPY= 117.35 � 0.30/ 0.26% /.SSEC 2914.48500 � 13.51520/0.47%

KRW= 1208.90 � 4.91 / 0.40% /CLc1 (Oil) 28.94 � 0.48 / 1.63%

January 19, 2016


SSIamH6 (Nikkei March Futures) – Last Trading Date: 14 Mar. 2016

Bottom level at 16900 breaks, an

indication of a downtrend will

continues during the resistance era

of 17100 is intact.

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

18 Jan SSIpmH6 16920 16995 16785 210 16845 --- � 25 0.15 30228

18 Jan SSIamH6 16770 17030 16640 390 16870 16870 � 235 1.37 96213

15 Jan SSIpmH6 17090 17155 16575 580 16685 -- � 420 2.46 60961

15 Jan SSIamH6 17500 17600 17045 555 17105 17105 � 200 1.16 87029

14 Jan SSIpmH6 17325 17465 17115 350 17430 -- � 125 0.72 69032

14 Jan SSIamH6 17215 17325 16915 410 17305 17305 � 365 2.07 108172

13 Jan SSIpmH6 17655 17710 17420 290 17425 --- � 245 1.39 34595

13 Jan SSIamH6 17420 17740 17410 330 17670 17670 � 540 3.15 75524

12 Jan SSIpmH6 17140 17505 17110 395 17315 --- � 185 1.08 45410

12 Jan SSIamH6 17435 17545 17085 460 17130 17130 � 195 1.13 95057

WEEKLY JANUARY DECEMBER 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

17030 16640 18945 16575 20035 18495 18945 16575

(18/Jan) (18/Jan) (04/Jan) (15/Jan) (01/Dec) (15/Dec) (04/Jan) (15/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

17975 Reaction high on 1-H Chart

17750 Pivot line on 1-D chart

17650 Pivot line on 1-H chart


SUPPORT

16575 Low this year

16530 Low 15/Jan/2015 (Bottom)

16440 Low 17/Dec/2014 (Bottom)

15570 Low 31/Oct/2014

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 17005

STOP LOSS 17115

TARGET 16795

16625

January 19, 2016


KSH6 (Kospi March Futures) – Exp. Date: 10 Mar. 2016

The strong support at 226 is still

intact, trigger a rebound to

resistance level of 230.50.


DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

18 Jan 226.55 229.70 226.10 3.60 229.15 229.15 � 0.10 0.04 154773

15 Jan 233.90 234.25 228.20 6.05 229.05 229.05 � 4.05 1.74 174273

14 Jan 231.25 233.15 229.60 3.55 233.10 233.10 � 1.40 0.60 194830

13 Jan 232.05 234.80 231.85 2.95 234.50 234.50 � 4.10 1.78 146511

12 Jan 232.75 233.25 230.30 2.95 230.40 230.40 � 1.35 0.58 165778



229.70 226.10 240.00 226.10 249.00 234.25 240.00 226.10



RESISTANCE

237.45 Reaction High 1-H Chart

235.45 Reaction High 1-H Chart

234.50 Pivot line on 1-D chart

230.50 Pivot line on 1-D chart

SUPPORT

226.00 Horizontal support on 1-D chart

220.50 Low 26/Aug/2015

218.20 Low 25/Aug/2015

216.90 Low 24/Aug/2015 (Bottom)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 230.25

STOP LOSS 231.00

TARGET 227.50

225.90

January 19, 2016


HSIF6 (Hang Seng January Futures) – Exp. Date: 28 Jan. 2016

Downside continues towards the

range of 19000 during the

rebound fails to breakout 19500. (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

18 Jan 19173 19442 19142 300 19271 � 197 1.01 151086

15 Jan 19795 19827 19475 352 19468 19468 � 342 1.73 136558

14 Jan 19555 19893 19468 425 19810 19810 � 249 1.24 20059

13 Jan 20075 20229 19818 411 20059 20059 � 362 1.84 147166

12 Jan 20023 20112 19656 456 19699 19697 � 244 1.22 128.540



19442 19142 21857 19142 22576 20985 21857 19142



RESISTANCE

20229 Reaction high on 1-H chart


19800 Pivot line

19500 Pivot line

SUPPORT

19016 Bottom level

18766 Low 26/Jul/2012

18649 Bottom level

18309 Low 08/Jun/2012

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 19380

STOP LOSS 19510

TARGET 19150

19010

January 19, 2016


CURRENCIES – Daily Outlook

Dollar inches higher as European markets steady - RTRS

A steadier overall performance by European stock markets

helped the dollar gain some ground on Monday against

Europe's current safe havens of choice, the euro and the

Swiss franc in a session thinned out by a U.S. holiday.

Sweden's crown gained a third of a percent on a set of

Riksbank minutes that stopped short of signalling aggressive

intervention to weaken the currency from here.

Sterling, a big loser since the start of December, dipped

below $1.43 while China's yuan gained around half a percent

on a Reuters report of new moves to add to funding costs for

foreign players speculating against the currency.

That sent the dollar/yuan rate back below 6.60 -- around 2.5

percent off highs for the greenback reached in the first week of January -- and eased some of the concern over

Chinese markets that has dominated major currencies since the start of the year.

The Australian dollar also gained around half a percent while other commodity currencies stabilised despite

another dip in the price of oil after Friday's 5 percent dive.

Predicted to fall at the start of 2016 on the increasing difference between U.S. and euro zone interest rates, the

euro has instead see-sawed on the back of investors' appetite for risk, or lack thereof. Few expect this week's

European Central Bank meeting to change that dynamic.

"With the ECB likely not close to additional easing, this week's meeting looks unlikely to stand in the way of safe-

haven buying of the euro," said Josh O'Byrne, a currency strategist with Citi in London.

"After the ECB's message on easing in December investors see the bar a bit higher in the near term for the

divergence trade. There is more volatility in other things."

The dollar gained around a quarter of a percent against the euro to $1.0893 and 0.5 percent to 1.0050 francs.

It also inched higher to 117.33 yen.

Market participants remained sceptical about the prospects for a sustained improvement in risk appetite,

however, given the selloff in global equities seen so far in January.

Data from China, echoing official reserves numbers, showed selling of yuan by Chinese banks more than doubled

to the equivalent of $95 billion in December from November.

"I think we will continue to see demand for yen in the short term," said Jesper Bargmann, head of trading for

Nordea Bank in Singapore. "I think the market is nervous and we will see further risk aversion."

Investors in Asia had taken aim at the Canadian dollar, driving it to a near 13-year low of C$1.4650 against the

U.S. dollar on expectations the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates as early as this week.

But some in Europe were already arguing last week that the extent of the falls in the Canadian dollar -- another 7

Canadian cents weaker against the dollar so far in January -- might stay policymakers' hand on further rate

easing.

"That squeeze we've seen on the CAD today is clearly about some pullback on expectations for this week's

meeting," said a dealer with one international bank in London.

The Canadian dollar had recovered to gain 0.2 percent on the day against its U.S. counterpart in early European

trade. (Source Reuters, Research – @her1en)

January 19, 2016


EUR/USD

Interest Rate: 0.05% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

EURUSD slumped in the daily.

With the hourly show

weakness. (research - @her1en)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Jan 18 1.0920 1.0938 1.0869 69 1.0890 � 30 1.0920

Jan 15 1.0855 1.0984 1.0855 129 1.0920 � 50 1.0870

Jan 14 1.0885 1.0944 1.0835 109 1.0870 � 15 1.0885

Jan 13 1.0845 1.0887 1.0806 81 1.0885 � 30 1.0855

Jan 12 1.0855 1.0900 1.0820 80 1.0855 � 5 1.0860



1.0938 1.0869 1.0984 1.0711 1.1059 1.0539 1.0984 1.0711



RESISTANCE

1.1095 Reaction high on daily chart

1.1059 Reaction high on daily chart

1.0992 High Dec 28

1.0938 High Jan 18

SUPPORT

1.0852 Low Jan 15

1.0833 Low Jan 14

1.0801 Low Jan 08

1.0769 Low Jan 07

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 1.0920

STOP LOSS 1.1005

TARGET 1.0860

1.0825

Daily QEUR= 28/09/2015 - 22/01/2016 (GMT)

1.1495

1.05381.0460

1.1500

1.1059

1.0709

1.0992

Cndl; QEUR=; Bid18/01/2016; 1,0916; 1,0938; 1,0867; 1,0896EMA; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 2018/01/2016; 1,0878WMA; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 5518/01/2016; 1,0857

Price

USD

Auto

1,04

1,05

1,06

1,07

1,08

1,09

1,1

1,11

1,12

1,13

1,14

RSI; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential18/01/2016; 53,401

Value

USD

Auto

50

Mom; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 1418/01/2016; -0,0021

Value

USD

Auto28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18

Oktober 2015 Nopember 2015 Desember 2015 Januari 2016

January 19, 2016


USD/JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.0% (JP)

USD / JPY has the potential to

move in the range of 116.46 -

118.04 with a tendency to

weaken during the resistance

area at 118.04 - 118.65

effective.



Jan 18 116.95 117.44 116.60 84 117.35 � 35 117.00

Jan 15 118.20 118.26 116.51 175 117.00 � 105 118.05

Jan 14 117.45 118.27 117.31 96 118.05 � 35 117.70

Jan 13 117.80 118.37 117.65 72 117.70 UNCH 117.70

Jan 12 117.65 118.05 117.24 81 117.70 UNCH 117.70



117.44 116.60 120.45 116.51 123.66 120.02 120.45 116.51



RESISTANCE

121.51 High 21/Dec/2015

120.60 Horizontal resistance on 1-H chart

120.15 Pivot Line on 1-H chart

118.65 Pivot Line on 1-D chart

SUPPORT

116.46 Bottom level on 1-D chart

115.82 Low 16/Jan/2015

115.44 Reaction low on 1-D chart

114.88 Low 12/Nov/2014

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 117.90

STOP LOSS 118.70

TARGET 116.50

115.65

January 19, 2016


GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

Bearish trend is likely to

continue as long as the

resistance area at 1.4350 -

1.4475 effective, with strong

support at 1.4230.



Jan 18 1.4260 1.4322 1.4249 73 1.4260 UNCH 1.4260

Jan 15 1.4420 1.4427 1.4255 172 1.4260 � 150 1.4410

Jan 14 1.4410 1.4445 1.4361 84 1.4410 � 10 1.4420

Jan 13 1.4435 1.4475 1.4381 94 1.4420 � 25 1.4445

Jan 12 1.4540 1.4560 1.4353 207 1.4445 � 90 1.4535



1.4322 1.4249 1.4813 1.4249 1.5238 1.4657 1.4813 1.4249



RESISTANCE

1.4644 Reaction high on 1-H chart


1.4530 Pivot line on 1-H chart


SUPPORT

1.4230 Low 20/May/2010 (Bottom)

1.4108 Bottom level

1.3844 Low 18/Mar/2009

1.3700 Low 12/Mar/2009

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 1.4350

STOP LOSS 1.4480

TARGET 1.4225

1.4150

January 19, 2016


USD/CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH)

Parity level at 1.0 is still

effective with uptick target at

1.0126. (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOU

S

Jan 18 1.0015 1.0073 1.0012 61 1.0055 � 40 1.0015

Jan 15 1.0055 1.0063 0.9960 103 1.0015 � 35 1.0050

Jan 14 1.0060 1.0094 1.0010 84 1.0050 � 10 1.0060

Jan 13 1.0030 1.0108 1.0023 85 1.0060 � 35 1.0025

Jan 12 1.0015 1.0048 0.9966 82 1.0025 � 10 1.0015



1.0073 1.0012 1.0126 0.9885 1.0308 0.9788 1.0126 0.9885



RESISTANCE

1.0330 Peak level

1.0308 High 02/Dec/2015

1.0254 High 03/Dec/2015

1.0126 Peak level

SUPPORT


0.9850 Horizontal support on 1-H chart

0.9784 Bottom level

0.9708 Low 23/Oct/2015

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.0005

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 0.9900

TARGET 1.0075

1.0130

January 19, 2016


AUD/USD Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

AUDUSD plunged to the daily.

With that support hourly

decline. (research - @her1en)


Jan 18 0.6860 0.6927 0.6831 96 0.6860 FLAT 0.6860

Jan 15 0.6995 0.7002 0.6828 174 0.6860 �120 0.6980

Jan 14 0.6935 0.6997 0.6911 86 0.6980 � 20 0.6960

Jan 13 0.6985 0.7048 0.6951 97 0.6960 � 25 0.6985

Jan 12 0.6985 0.7020 0.6941 79 0.6985 � 10 0.6995



0.6927 0.6831 0.7300 0.6828 0.7385 0.7098 0.7300 0.6828



RESISTANCE

0.7074 High Jan 08

0.7048 High Jan 13

0.7002 High Jan 15

0.6927 High Jan 18

SUPPORT

0.6824 Low Jan 15

0.6763 Reaction low on daily chart (Low Mar 30,’09)

0.6721 Low Mar 19, ‘09

0.6563 Low Mar 18, ‘09

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 0.6875

STOP LOSS 0.6970

TARGET 0.6805

0.6780

Daily QAUD= 13/10/2015 - 22/01/2016 (GMT)

0.7385

0.7091

0.7012

0.7327

0.7400

0.6900

0.7500

0.7086

0.6824

EMA; QAUD=; Bid(Last); 2018/01/2016; 0,7064WMA; QAUD=; Bid(Last); 5518/01/2016; 0,7148Cndl; QAUD=; Bid18/01/2016; 0,6867; 0,6927; 0,6826; 0,6853

Price

USD

Auto

0,675

0,68

0,685

0,69

0,695

0,7

0,705

0,71

0,715

0,72

0,725

0,73

0,735

0,74

0,745

RSI; QAUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential18/01/2016; 20,951 Value

USD

AutoMom; QAUD=; Bid(Last); 1418/01/2016; -0,0441 Value

USD19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18Oktober 2015 Nopember 2015 Desember 2015 Januari 2016

January 19, 2016


NZD/USD Interest Rate: 2.5% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

NZDUSD rose to a daily, hourly

supported by the movement of

the indicator. (research - @her1en)


Jan 18 0.6445 0.6479 0.6407 72 0.6445 FLAT 0.6445

Jan 15 0.6490 0.6491 0.6382 109 0.6445 � 35 0.6480

Jan 14 0.6485 0.6516 0.6420 96 0.6480 � 40 0.6520

Jan 13 0.6540 0.6589 0.6518 71 0.6520 � 20 0.6540

Jan 12 0.6550 0.6568 0.6516 52 0.6540 � 20 0.6560



0.6479 0.6407 0.6844 0.6382 0.6886 0.6584 0.6844 0.6382



RESISTANCE

0.6707 High Jan 06

0.6677 High Jan 08

0.6589 High Jan 13

0.6516 High Jan 14

SUPPORT

0.6401 Low Jan 18

0.6379 Low Jan 15

0.6332 Low Sept 30, 2015

0.6288 Low Sept 29, 2015

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.6425

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 0.6335

TARGET 0.6485

0.6510

Daily QNZD= 14/09/2015 - 25/01/2016 (GMT)

0.6424

0.6897

0.6233

0.6910

0.6230

0.6886

0.6379

0.6589

Cndl; QNZD=; Bid18/01/2016; 0,6460; 0,6479; 0,6401; 0,6436EMA; QNZD=; Bid(Last); 2018/01/2016; 0,6615WMA; QNZD=; Bid(Last); 5518/01/2016; 0,6663

Price

USD

Auto

0,6

0,61

0,62

0,63

0,64

0,65

0,66

0,67

0,68

0,69

RSI; QNZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential18/01/2016; 14,549 Value

USD

AutoMom; QNZD=; Bid(Last); 1418/01/2016; -0,0428 Value

USD14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25

September 2015 Oktober 2015 Nopember 2015 Desember 2015 Januari 2016

January 19, 2016


EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.05% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP)

Descending triangle pattern on

the 1-H chart supports the

bearish signal as long as

resistance area around 129

remains intact. (Research – @ErwinRiset)


Jan 18 127.70 127.94 127.34 60 127.80 � 5 127.75

Jan 15 128.35 128.42 127.63 79 127.75 � 55 128.30

Jan 14 127.85 128.76 127.76 100 128.30 � 20 128.10

Jan 13 127.75 128.54 127.63 91 128.10 � 30 127.80

Jan 12 127.75 128.00 127.47 53 127.80 UNCH 127.80



127.94 127.34 130.78 126.79 134.59 129.78 130.78 126.79



RESISTANCE

131.01 Pivot line on 1-H Chart

130.20 Pivot line on 1-H Chart


129.09 Reaction high on 1-D chart

SUPPORT

126.71 Low 16/Apr/2015

126.24 Low 15/Apr/2015

126.04 Bottom level

125.51 Low 17/Jun/2013

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 128.20

STOP LOSS 129.15

TARGET 127.30

126.50

January 19, 2016


USD/CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA)

Doji star pattern and RSI which

has been oversold condition

(93.70) open the possibility of

reversal with strong support at

1.4170. (Research – @ErwinRiset)

WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE

1.4541 1.4550



1.4651 1.4484 1.4651 1.3812 1.3999 1.3289 1.4651 1.3812



RESISTANCE

1.5046 High 24/Feb/2003

1.4947 High 21/Mar/2003

1.4667 High 24/Apr/2003

1.4651 High 18/Jan/2016

SUPPORT

1.4331 Low 14/Jan/2016


1.4045 Horizontal support

1.3969 Reaction low on 1-H chart

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 1.4595

STOP LOSS 1.4680

TARGET 1.4415 – 1.4315

January 19, 2016


Precious Metal – Daily Outlook

Gold steadies, underpinned by stock market weakness, oil slump - RTRS

Gold steadied in holiday-thinned trade on

Monday, underpinned by a slide in crude oil

prices to 12-year lows and persistent weakness in

world stock markets, which prompted investors

to seek assets considered a safe store of value.

Gains were limited, however, as the dollar firmed

and oil inched up from earlier lows, pointing to a

slight cooling of the risk aversion that lifted gold

1 percent on Friday. U.S. markets were closed for

the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,088.87 an

ounce at 1502 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for

February delivery were down $1.60 at $1,089.10.

Prices have risen nearly 3 percent so far this year after weak economic data in China and a fresh move

lower in the yuan in early January prompted a sell-off in Chinese stocks, which spilled over into global

markets.

"The market is now re-pricing the overall macro risk through short covering in the futures market,"

Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said. "Gold is a natural hedge, or insurance you look for when your

equity market portfolio is a little more volatile."

Oil prices hit their lowest since late 2003 as the market braced for additional Iranian exports after the

lifting of sanctions against the country over the weekend.

A rebound in European stocks quickly fizzled out after markets around the world slumped. Asian

equities tumbled to their lowest since 2011 overnight as investors shunned risky assets after weak U.S.

economic data.

U.S. retail sales fell in December, along with industrial production.

The renewed weakness in the world's top economy raises doubts over whether the Federal Reserve will

raise interest rates again in March.

"Clearly there are growing doubts among market participants that the U.S. Federal Reserve will

implement a further rate hike in March," Commerzbank said in a note.

"If interest rates are not raised in the short term, the opportunity costs of holding gold will remain low

for longer."

Hedge funds and money managers switched to their first bullish bet in COMEX gold in two months in

the week to Jan. 12, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.

Platinum fell to a seven-year low at $812.95, hurt by fears over global growth. As a largely industrial

metal, heavily used by the auto sector to make catalytic converters, it is more exposed than gold to

concerns over economic weakness.

Platinum was down 1.5 percent at $816.99 an ounce, while silver was up 0.2 percent at $13.94 and

palladium was up 0.5 percent to $493.45. (Source Reuters, Research – @her1en)

January 19, 2016


GOLD (XAU/USD)

Gold (XAUUSD) depressed in the

daily, the hourly chart also

dropped. (research - @her1en)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS AM FIX PM FIX

Jan 18 1090.00 1092.96 1087.80 5.16 1089.00 � 1.00 1090.00 1090.45 1089.20

Jan 15 1077.50 1097.20 1076.60 20.60 1090.00 � 12.00 1078.00 1081.10 1093.75

Jan 14 1094.70 1094.96 1072.00 22.96 1078.00 � 16.00 1094.00 1090.75 1088.40

Jan 13 1086.60 1095.30 1080.05 15.25 1094.00 � 4.00 1090.00 1081.80 1088.15

Jan 12 1096.00 1099.15 1083.80 15.35 1090.00 � 5.50 1095.50 1094.85 1085.40



1092.96 1087.80 1112.00 1062.28 1088.70 1046.60 1112.00 1062.28



RESISTANCE

1108.11 High Jan 11

1099.15 High Jan 12

1097.20 High Jan 15

1092.96 High Jan 18

SUPPORT

1086.95 Low Jan 18

1075.80 Low Jan 15

1071.00 Low Jan 14

1061.50 Low Jan 04

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 1090.00

STOP LOSS 1103.00

TARGET 1082.50

1077.00

Daily QXAU= 15/10/2015 - 22/01/2016 (GMT)

1190.63 1182.50

1137.91

1112.00

1045.85

Cndl; QXAU=; Bid18/01/2016; 1.089,2100; 1.092,9600; 1.086,9500; 1.088,6000EMA; QXAU=; Bid(Last); 2018/01/2016; 1.082,7662WMA; QXAU=; Bid(Last); 5518/01/2016; 1.076,7187

Price

USD

Ozs

Auto

1.040

1.060

1.080

1.100

1.120

1.140

1.160

1.180

RSI; QXAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential18/01/2016; 53,628 Value

USD

Ozs

AutoMom; QXAU=; Bid(Last); 1418/01/2016; 19,9900 Value

USDOzs19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18


January 19, 2016


SILVER (XAG/USD)

Silver (XAGUSD) down on the

daily. Hourly emphasize it. (research - @her1en)


Jan 18 13.91 13.98 13.83 0.15 13.91 � 0.03 13.88

Jan 15 13.84 14.11 13.76 0.35 13.88 � 0.06 13.82

Jan 14 14.13 14.16 13.74 0.42 13.82 � 0.31 14.13

Jan 13 13.79 14.18 13.75 0.43 14.13 � 0.37 13.76

Jan 12 13.86 13.98 13.73 0.25 13.76 � 0.08 13.84



13.98 13.83 14.37 13.73 14.63 13.63 14.37 13.73



RESISTANCE

14.42 High Dec 28

14.38 High Jan 07

14.19 High Jan 13

13.99 High Jan 18

SUPPORT

13.81 Low Jan 18

13.71 Low Jan 14

13.67 Low Dec 18

13.63 Low Dec 17

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 13.95

STOP LOSS 14.40

TARGET 13.75

13.50

Daily QXAG= 15/10/2015 - 22/01/2016 (GMT)

13.60

16.36

13.71

14.64

14.38

Cndl; QXAG=; Bid18/01/2016; 13,9090; 13,9940; 13,8100; 13,9300EMA; QXAG=; Bid(Last); 2018/01/2016; 13,9836WMA; QXAG=; Bid(Last); 5518/01/2016; 14,0412

PriceUSD

Ozs

Auto

13,6

14

14,4

14,8

15,2

15,6

RSI; QXAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential18/01/2016; 48,609 Value

USD

Ozs

AutoMom; QXAG=; Bid(Last); 1418/01/2016; -0,0200 Value

USDOzs19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18


January 19, 2016


OIL – Daily Outlook

Oil slumps below $28 to 2003 low as Iran sanctions lifted – RTRS

Oil prices slumped to a 2003 low below

$28 per barrel on Monday as the market

anticipated a rise in Iranian exports after

the lifting of sanctions against Tehran

over the weekend.

Responding to Tehran's compliance with

a nuclear deal, the United States and

major powers revoked international

sanctions that had cut Iran's oil exports

by about 2 million barrels per day (bpd)

since their pre-sanctions 2011 peak to

little more than 1 million bpd.

Iran, a member of the Organization of

the Petroleum Exporting Countries

(OPEC), issued an order on Monday to increase production by 500,000 bpd, the country's deputy oil

minister said.

Worries about Iran's return to an already oversupplied oil market drove down Brent crude to $27.67 a

barrel early on Monday, its lowest since 2003. The benchmark was down 29 cents at $28.64 by 1850

GMT.

U.S. crude was down 48 cents at $28.94 a barrel, not far from a 2003 low of $28.36 hit earlier in the

session. Trading volumes were thin with U.S. markets closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

"You can't say this was unexpected but the Iran news is an additional factor that's working against oil

prices," said TD Securities analyst Bart Melek, who also pointed to global oversupply and concerns

about demand from China.

He said oil could fall further if Chinese economic data released overnight, including GDP and retail sales

data, points to more weakness in the economy.

"If we get nasty economic numbers from China there's potential for another swoosh lower," Melek said.

Analysts expect Iran will realistically be able to export an extra 500,000 bpd in the short term from

storage, but there are doubts whether the state of Iran's oil infrastructure will allow further boosts

anytime soon.

SEB Markets assumes Iranian oil output will rise by 400,000 bpd to 3.2 million bpd in 2016, while Tehran

has said it will add 1 million bpd to its existing output by the year-end.

Iran has at least a dozen Very Large Crude Carrier super-tankers filled and in place to sell into the

market.

In a sign of the pain low prices are inflicting on oil producers, OPEC forecast that supply outside the

organisation would decline by 660,000 bpd in 2016, led by the United States. Last month OPEC

predicted a drop of 380,000 bpd. (Source Reuters, Research – @her1en)

January 19, 2016


CLG6/USD (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Jan. 2016 - Reuters)

WTI Oil (CLc1) slumped again in

the daily. Where hourly of the

pressure. (research - @her1en)


Jan 18 29.18 29.82 28.35 1.47 28.93 � 0.75 29.68

Jan 15 31.13 31.16 29.12 2.04 29.68 � 1.51 31.19

Jan 14 30.58 31.73 30.27 1.46 31.19 � 0.65 30.54

Jan 13 30.52 31.69 30.09 1.60 30.54 � 0.03 30.57

Jan 12 31.09 32.18 29.93 2.25 30.57 � 0.53 31.10



29.82 28.35 38.37 28.35 42.20 34.52 38.37 28.35



RESISTANCE

32.21 High Jan 12

31.71 High Jan 13

31.18 High Jan 15

29.84 High Jan 18

SUPPORT

28.36 Low Jan 18

28.26 Low Oct 30, 2003

27.87 Low Sept 26, 2003

26.93 Low Sept 24, 2003

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 29.15

STOP LOSS 30.95

TARGET 27.85

27.35

Daily QCLc1 09/09/2015 - 26/01/2016 (NYC)

43.46

33.98

50.92

48.36

38.39

28.36

34.34

Cndl; QCLc1; Trade Price19/01/2016; 29,20; 29,84; 28,36; 28,94WMA; QCLc1; Trade Price(Last); 5519/01/2016; 36,18EMA; QCLc1; Trade Price(Last); 2019/01/2016; 33,55

PriceUSD

Bbl

Auto

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

RSI; QCLc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential19/01/2016; 19,075 Value

USD

BblMom; QCLc1; Trade Price(Last); 1419/01/2016; -7,87 Value

USDBbl14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 19 25

September 2015 Oktober 2015 Nopember 2015 Desember 2015 Januari 2016

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DAILY MARKET REPORT - Valbury E-capitalvalburyecapital.com/research-pdf-file/44-Daily... · causing these banks to suffer," Mark Foulds, sales trader at ETX Capital, said, adding