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D. Scott Looney, Director of External AffairsCranbrook Schools, Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
Demography or Economics?
The Impact on Admissions of External Factors
Enrollment:Enrollment:Public & Charter SchoolsPublic & Charter Schools
Private (Parochial)Private (Parochial)IndependentIndependent
DemographyDemographyThe EconomyThe Economy
Enrollment:Enrollment:Public & Charter SchoolsPublic & Charter Schools
Private (Parochial)Private (Parochial)IndependentIndependent
DemographyDemographyThe EconomyThe Economy
Assumptions
Demography and Economics Matter
– Probably more than good marketing and admission practices
Demographic, Economic and Socio-graphic predictions are only as good as the set of assumptions on which they are based (baby boomlet error).
Economic and Demographic trends are relational.
When the Economy and Demography are pointed in the same direction (good or bad) they are compounding.
It will get either better or worse, eventually…both economic and demographic trends are cyclical…
– (but only somewhat predicable).
More Assumptions
All Demography that matters is local…even to a large extent for boarding schools.
The location of a school can either insulate it from negative impacts of national demographic and economic downturns, or intensify the effects.
Schools which may feel isolated from national demographic or economic trends, can still be indirectly affected by the Government’s reaction to the trends.
Demographic research is essential, and not necessarily difficult or expensive.
Independent Independent EnrollmentEnrollment
Private (Parochial)Private (Parochial) EnrollmentEnrollmentPublic EnrollmentPublic Enrollment
Charter Charter Schools?Schools?
Questions for Another Day…Questions for Another Day…
Impact of Growth of other Types of Schools…?
Growth in Charter Schools
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Center for Education Reform
Economy or Demography?
Which has the greater impact on enrollment growth: the economy or demographics?
Z - Scores
A “Z – Score” is a score that is converted to a common scale where scores from sets of data with different units can be compared.
Z = (Raw Score – Mean of Group Scores)
Standard Deviation
In other words…what is the ratio of the difference in this specific score from the group mean (average) to the standard deviation of this group.
Z-score education and explanation courtesy of Tom White, SSATB
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Z scores
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Chron.
NumbersNumbers1 through 101 through 10Graphed Graphed ChronologicallyChronologically
NumbersNumbers1 through 101 through 10Converted toConverted to Z scoresZ scores
Z Scores (Raw Score – Mean) / Standard Deviation
Private, Public, NAIS Enrollment (3 –17 yrs), K to 12th , SSAT Test Takers and GDP
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Population Public z Private z NAIS zSSAT Cranbrook GDP Per Cap Income
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Population Public K-12 Private K-12 NAIS
SSAT Cranbrook GDP Income
National Center for Education Statistics 2001
Z Scores (Raw Score – Mean) / Standard Deviation
Private, Public, NAIS Enrollment (3 –17 yrs), K to 12th , SSAT Test Takers and GDP
Public, Private and NAIS Enrollments 1986-1999
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Public 9-12 Private 9-12 NAIS 9-12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
19901990
Private and NAIS Enrollments 1986-1999
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Private 9-12 NAIS 9-12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
19901990 19931993
NAIS Enrollments 1986-1999
105000
110000
115000
120000
125000
130000
135000
140000
NAIS 9-12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
1989 & 19901989 & 1990
K- 12th Public, Private, NAIS Core School Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers, GDP and Per Capita Income in Relation to Population of Children (Difference in Z-Scores of School Age Children, 1986 - 1999)
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Public Private School Enrollment NAIS SSAT Takers Cranbrook GDP Income
SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis &The National Center for Education Statistics 2001
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Population Public Private NAIS SSAT Income
K- 12th Public, Private & NAIS Core School Enrollment, Population of School Age Children, SSAT Test Takers in Relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1986 to 1999 (Difference in Z-Scores from the Public School Enrollment)
NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis &The National Center for Education Statistics 2001
9th - 12th Private School Enrollment, NAIS Core School Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers and GDP in Relation to Public School Enrollments (Difference in Z-Scores from the Public School Enrollment, 1986-1999)
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Private School Enrollment SSAT Takers GDP NAIS
NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis &The National Center for Education Statistics 2001
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Public Private SSAT NAIS
9th - 12th Public, Private & NAIS Core School Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers in Relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Difference in Z-Scores from the Gross Domestic Product – Inflation Adjusted, 1986 to 1999)
NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis &The National Center for Education Statistics 2001
Enrollment
Public vs. Private Enrollment Growth 2000-2011 (Z-scores)
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Public K-12 Private K-12
National Center for Education Statistics 2001SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools; Common Core of Data surveys; Private School Universe Survey, various years; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (This table was prepared May 2001.)
Enrollment Growth N.A.I.S. vs. Public and Parochial
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 year 5 year 10 year
Public
All-Private
NAIS
NAIS Statistics 1997, Vol.1
The Large get Larger, the Small get Smaller N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by School Size (1987-1997)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Under 200 201-300 301-500 501-700 Above 700
10 year5 year1 year
NAIS Statistics 1998, Vol 1.
N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by School Type (1989-1999)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Day Day-Boarding Boarding-Day Boarding
1 year
5 year
10 year
NAIS Statistics 2000, Vol 1.
SSAT Test Takers 1956 to 1999
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998
Courtesy of SSATB
Private School Enrollment Projection by National Department of Education (in thousands)
5,800
5,810
5,820
5,830
5,840
5,850
5,860
5,870
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010National Center for Education Statistics 2001
Population Demographics
U.S. Population Growth, 1950 to 2000
28
18.4
24
13.4
23
11.4
22
9.8
32.7
13.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Growth (in Millions) Percent Change
Source: US Census 2000 Brief: Population Change and Distribution, 1990-2000
Number of Births (in thousands) in the United States, 1909 - 1994
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
93 90 87 84 81 78 75 72 69 66 63 60 57 54 51 48 45 42 39 36 33 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9
American Demographics, 1997
Age 28Age 28 Age 12Age 12
Age
Age 43Age 43
Numbers of Births in the United States 1951-2011
2,500
2,700
2,900
3,100
3,300
3,500
3,700
3,900
4,100
4,300
4,500
Actual Projected
National Center for Education Statistics 2001
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National PopulationEstimates for the 1990s," January 2001, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000; and U.S. Departmentof Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS),Annual Summary of Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: United States,various years, National Vital Statistics Reports; and unpublished tabulations.(This table was prepared May 2001.)
U.S. Population by Age, 2000
BoomersBoomers
BoomletBoomlet
U.S. Population by Age, 2025
BoomersBoomers
BoomletBoomlet
U.S. Population by Age, 2050
BoomersBoomers
BoomletBoomlet
U.S. Population by Age, 2100
BoomletBoomlet
The Boomlet Distribution
American Demographics June 1999
Populations of School Age Children 1986 to 2011 (in thousands)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
3 & 4 yrs. 5 to 13 yrs. 14 to 17 yrs.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population Estimates," June 1999, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000. (This table was prepared June 2001.)
Populations of Children Age 14 to 17 from 1986 to 2011 (in thousands)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
14 to 17 yrs.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population Estimates," June 1999, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000. (This table was prepared June 2001.)
School age U.S Population to 2050 (in thousands)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Under 5 5 to 13 14 to 17
1996
20102030
2050
American Demograpics, July 1996
U.S. Teen Population ages 12-19 (in millions)
29.131.7
33.9 34.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1995 2000 2005 2010
American Demographics, November 1995
+9% +7% +3%““What number do you think is the ideal numberWhat number do you think is the ideal number
of children for a family to have?” of children for a family to have?”
Two ChildrenTwo Children More than Two More than Two19761976 19861986 19961996 19761976 19861986 1996199650%50% 50%50% 55%55% 33%33% 37%37% 29%29%
General Social SurveyGeneral Social SurveyNational Opinion Research CenterNational Opinion Research CenterUniversity of Chicago, 1997University of Chicago, 1997
School Age Population
Between 1996 and 20041996 and 2004 the numbers of school age children is projected to increase increase each year.
Between 2005 and 20102005 and 2010 the numbers of school age children should be stagnant or decreasingdecreasing slightly each year.
Between 2010 and 20202010 and 2020 there will be dramatically decreasingdramatically decreasing numbers of school age children, so…
Between 1996 and 20201996 and 2020 the total number of school age children will increase very littleincrease very little.
After 2020After 2020 there should be a dramatic increasedramatic increase in the number of school age children.
Suburbs Gain(percent living in central cities, suburbs and non-metropolitan areas, 1950 and 1998)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Central Cities Suburbs Non-Metro Areas
1950 1998
Economic Factors
Per Capita Income 1986 to 2011
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Actual Middle Projection Low Pro. High Pro
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Statistics of State School Systems; Common Core of Data survey; Early Estimates survey; and Revenue Receipts from State Sources Model; DRI•WEFA, "U.S. Quarterly Model," and National Education Association, Estimates School Statistics. (Latest edition 2001. Copyright 2001 by the National Education Association. All rights reserved.) (This table was prepared June 2001.)
Gross Domestic Product (in Billions) 1929 to 2000 in Real Dollars and 1996 Constant Dollars
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1200019
29
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
GDP Real GDP 1996 Dollars
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
Immigration-Adjusted Births (Millions) Dow Adjusted for Inflation (Log Scale)
H.S. Dent Foundation, from American Demographics, December 2000
The Spending WaveThe Spending WaveBirths Logged for Peak in Family SpendingBirths Logged for Peak in Family Spending
U.S. Births U.S. Births Logged forLogged forPeak SpendingPeak Spending
Dow AdjustedDow AdjustedForForInflationInflation
ImmigrationImmigration
50,000
70,000
1,000
30,000
10,000
5,000
Dow
Consumer Spending
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69
Peak in SpendingPeak in SpendingAge 47Age 47
AgeAge
Sp
end
ing
Sp
end
ing
2000 H.S. Dent Foundation from American Demographics, Dec. 2000
The Baby BoomersThe Baby Boomers
Average Household Spending by Age Group Indexed to 100, 1997
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Under25
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 andover
American Demographics April 1999
Average Total
Income Demographic from 1997 to 2020 (in thousand of families)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
over 150
125 to 150
100 to 125
75 to 100
60 to 75
50 to 60
40 to 50
30 to 40
20 to 30
10 to 20
0-10
ISACS homepage: (www.isacs.org)
Num
ber
of F
amili
es (
in T
hous
ands
)
Income Demographic in thousand of families (from $75,000 to over $150,000)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
over 150
125 to 150
100 to 125
75 to 100
ISACS homepage: (www.isacs.org)
Num
ber
of F
amili
es (
in T
hous
ands
)
Percent of Household with Incomes of $100,000 or more, 1980-1997 (in 1997 dollars)
4.8% 4.7%5.1%
5.4%
6.0%6.2%
7.2% 7.4%7.8%
8.2%7.7%
7.3% 7.2%
7.8%8.1% 8.2%
8.7%
9.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97American Demographics, Jan. 1999
•In 1996, 67% of Americans agreed with the statement: In 1996, 67% of Americans agreed with the statement: “Both the “Both the husband and the wife should contribute to the household income.”husband and the wife should contribute to the household income.”
•In 1986, only 48% felt this way. In 1986, only 48% felt this way.
General Social SurveyGeneral Social SurveyNational Opinion Research CenterNational Opinion Research CenterUniversity of Chicago, 1997University of Chicago, 1997
Average Family Income by Educational Attainment of the Householder, 1997
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Less thanHS
HS dropout HS Grad SomeCollege
Associate Bachelors Masters Doctorate Professional
Median Family Income by Educational Attainment of Householder, 1973 & 1997 (in 1997 dollars)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
<9th grade HS Dropout HS Grad 1-3 yrs.College
Bachelors Graduate
19731997
Percent Change in Average Household Spending by Age Group 1987 to 1997 (in 1997 Dollars)
-9.1%
2.2%
-9.1%
1.0%
-1.0%
4.1%
17.4%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Under25
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 andover
American Demographics April 1999
